IMO that decision must be left to Zelensky and the Ukranian people. If they judge at some future point that Putin is genuinely looking to cut a deal, they may decide that ceding Crimea and some of the Donbas is a price worth paying for a guarantee of Ukraine's future security.
Putin's 'nova Russia' project has already failed. It has floundered in Ukraine and will go no further. The west will supply ammo to any European country he invades and he will be left with a bunch of scrap metal and dead soldiers. He is in no position to invade beyond what he already has. Fail. Go home.
Totally agree. Ukraine drives this, it's their country despite RuSSia's best efforts.
Be interesting to see what happens now on the sanctions front. Restricting and threatening to squeeze the gas supply was a weapon for Russia. If this is an indefinite suspension of gas supply, surely they'll lose that leverage. Seems a foolish step to take.
On the IAEA inspection I was quite wrong in thinking that excuses would be made to stop them and the inspectors were allowed onto some parts of the site.
Huh. Who are you talking about?
Shashank Joshi writes most of The Economist's articles about Ukraine and they've been excellent. Well researched, fact based journalism.
I've found Michael Kofman's input to be knowledgeable and inciteful.
I'm not sure what your problem is with the opinion that the Ukrainians would prefer to free Kherson city through the Russians being forced to flee. The alternative is having to engage them in a destructive urban battle that would no doubt lead to thousands of Ukrainian deaths (both military and civilian) casualties as well as millions in structural damage to the city itself.
Unfortunately nonsense, some how everything was cosy pre covid ,and Russia was a lovely and friendly neighbor and respectful,
Chechnya, Georgia, Syria ,the various poisonings and assinations,the Kursk as you pointed was a great example as is the shooting down of flight MH17,
"It takes a worried man, to sing a worried song..."
This is just for information and to correct incorrect impressions that Russian gas supplies are turned off. They are still paying Ukraine transit fees for gas to Europe. Only one (major) pipeline is down.
The only way Kherson is freed is by military action,they are not going to sit there and they sit the Russians out it would take years,and then comes what Russia did to Mariupol they will turn Kherson to dust before the Ukrainians could take it back, ukraine will have to fight for every inch of their country,it's already been claimed the whole counter offensive is geared towards taking the Kakhovka hydroelectric and reservoir back so they can turn off the water to Crimea.
It's not going to change much,the only way ukraine gets Donbas and Crimea back under their control is through sheer force ,
There's a saying in chess that "The threat can be stronger than the execution" (Aaron Nimzovich). ChessBase.com elaborates...
It looks like Putin imagines that scenario #1 applies. We'll see. Resilience the face of adversity isn't just a Russian trait.
I find it hard to see why the west cannot help Ukraine with an overwhelming attack on Kherson. It is only a few miles away and what the Ukrainians lack can be made up for by quantity; carpet bomb Russian positions.
I don't think I can recall a conflict where people calling for peace has been such a red flag. As in, I haven't heard anyone Ukrainian or who supports them call for peace. How can you call for peace when you have invaders stealing your land. How can you call for peace when you know that the enemy will just use that "peace" to regroup, rebuild and wait to steal more of your territory in the future. How can you call for peace with someone who only respects strength.
To put it in simpler terms: It's like being told that the only way to deal with a bully is to give them exactly what they want and not try to fight back against them. Oh, and if you do want to continue to fight back against them, then you are the aggressive one.
It's gas-lighting, plain and simple.
The main people guilty of it are tankies and hard-left types: PBP/Solidarity, Clare Daly, Mick Wallace, Thomas Pringle, Jeremy Corbyn, George Galloway, Russell Brand and anyone with "Free Assange" in their bio on twitter.
The Russian army is stuffed full of contracted soldiers who are purely fighting for the money. How much stomach would they really have for defending Kherson city if the rest of the West bank was entirely in Ukrainian hands, the supply lines from the east bank were down for heavy weaponry but they were still able to escape on foot?
I don't think it's a ridiculous notion that the Ukrainians would prefer to allow them to escape on foot (abandoning their heavy weaponry) then have to fight them for it at huge cost to their own numbers.
It certainly wouldn't be an act of mercy by the Ukrainians. This is a unique situation given the lack of bridges on that river. When it comes to the Donbass they really will have to fight village by village, town by town and city by city.
I'd imagine the concerns are:
It would fit with the "Provide your enemy with a golden bridge" advice by Sun Tzu. Plus modern technology would allow the retreating forces to be hammered as they were crossing the golden bridge, like at the Falaise Gap in Normandy in 1944 (even if that wasn't actually the plan at the time).
Ukrainian air defense shot down all 5 Iskander missiles launched at Dnipro city overnight
If this attrition war continues as it has been, then it's going to come down to which side has the economic and political will to keep fighting. We can see on our own side that concerns over the cost of living are mounting and that could lead to pressure to relieve whatever generators of austerity can be relieved, including the idea of lifting some Russian sanctions in return for cheap gas/oil, which would in turn give Russia more revenue to continue with this dreadful war.
On Russia's side, things are a bit more opaque because it's, well, Russia. The killing of Darya Dugina is highly suggestive that things are not at all well within Russia and there is probably widespread quiet discontent over Putin's actions within Ukraine. Given the generally paranoid nature of Russian politics, the pressure Putin is feeling has to be significant.
Obviously, another couple of years of this is going to be good for no-one, or relatively very few. Russia needs to be driven back hard to wherefrom they came as soon as possible. They shouldn't be bled slowly to defeat, they should have their throat cut.
Yes interesting that Putin is snubbing Gorbachev funeral. What is the rational behind that? Is he afraid to make any PR mis steps?? In stable countries these things are not an issue.
Boris Johnson Mickey D and Micheal Martin were like peas in a pod at the David Trimble funeral.
What PR misstep would there be to make in skipping Gorbachev's funeral at this point? He probably hated Gorbachev, blaming him for selling out the USSR, and I don't know if the regular Russian on the street would be worried about Putin skipping it either. Putin doesn't even have to play nice to the West anymore or even play ambivalent, so there's not even a reason to attend the funeral in order to look good that way. Plus it's one less public appearance he has to make.
This time next year putin will be dead, this energy crisis is going to cause total chaos and recession around the world, putin will have made too many enemies, he is surrounded by thieves and criminals in a rust bucket kingdom, someone is going to put a knife in his back
He held him personally accountable for the break-up of the U.S.S.R., something which he famously stated was "the greatest geopolitical tragedy of the 20th century".
Had Putin been in charge then he would have sent in the tanks and he saw Gorbachev as weak for not doing likewise. He had no respect for him and probably doesn't want to be associated with him or his legacy.
The PR mis step I was alluding to was in attending the funeral not skipping it. Skipping it is playing it safe.
Out of respect for his former boss and a fellow elite holder of the same high office. There should be no question of it. In the vast majority of civilised countries in the world the current incumbent would show their respect very publicly for a former incumbent despite any differences. Putin and Gorbachev did not have much quarrels in their time they weren’t rivals and really belong to two different eras. Personally it would not cost him much soul searching to attend.
But in the current febrile unstable atmosphere in Russia it looks better to the Z types for Putin to snub it. He is snubbing it to appease the lunatics. IMHO.
Gorbachev would probably be happier he didn’t attend
It would be great to see Putin gone in one way or another, but we can't sit back and say that's just going to happen as a matter of course.
Putin is banking on the very chaos you're talking about, though he would obviously be hoping that it will break Western countries' desire to continue backing Ukraine.
Putin hates Gorbachev for collapsing the Soviet Union.
The ending of the Soviet Union has been described by Putin as the greatest geopolitical tragedy of the last century.
It's why he is trying to recreate it and the Communist society he grew up in, ableit a less murderous and less aggressive version of it. That's just a reflection on how murderous Soviet Russia was, especially in Ukraine, Putin has a long way to go to meet the savagery of that.
Gorbachev did send the tanks in. It didn’t work. The appetite was not there for it. The red army did not want to murder its own people on the mass scale needed to hold the Soviet Union together. Most of the red army divisions ordered to put down the break up were local to the areas they were ordered into.
Biden and the West in general are working on the assumption that Putin is 'not' going to croak it soon or be removed from power. Most of their long term strategy is based around the idea that he will still be in place in 2-3 years' time.
And even if Putin was gone tomorrow, there’s no guarantee that the next fella won’t be as bad. Best to try to win the war itself than bank on Putin’s end being some kind of magic bullet.
Agreed, and Russian political culture is such that even if Putin's successor weren't as bad, it would only be a matter of time until someone else came along who was. They can have their little House of Cards going on in Russia 'til the cows come home, for all I care, but their influence on the world stage must become greatly diminished or at the very least Western reliance upon them.
Has anyone seen anything factual reported about the kherson offensive?
Couldn't be ruled out,Gorbachev family might not wanted him attend .....similar vein to trump and McCain?
However bad a look him not turning up is,it would be multiples worse,if he turned up and was turned away
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