How do people feel about this one? Will it be short and sweet?
Mod warning:
https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121425200/#Comment_121425200
I think we will have to agree to disagree and see where inflation is over the next 2 years. Can you tell me what assumptions are wrong. ? That we are going into a recession, jobs will be lost in the private sector or that the current hyper inflation is caused by Covid and a War both of which could be an issue for years or could be over tomorrow. You have just made my argument for me we have seen deflation and a near 5% deflation after the last recession and we are heading into another. So your assumption that this inflation is here to stay is wrong but no point arguing I will point you back here in say 24 months time and we will see where inflation is at after a global recession.
I want 10% over 2 years or I will vote against it just for all the begrudgers in this thread.
Not when the tax base is eroded by people leaving the tax payers queue to join the dole receivers queue. Already world wide you can see companies like Ford cutting 3000 jobs and companies like Cineworld, Sears and JC Pennies hitting the wall in the US and most MNCs have stopped hiring. Already 8% increase in insolvencies in Ireland in Q1 2022. (be interesting to see if this goes up meaningfully in Q2). Add in two of the main banking mainstays over the last 2 decades running from Ireland (Ulster and KBC). Then of course you have the hard choices the Germans will be making this winter, they are really screwed with regards to the gas supply issues. Also the UK is having a nightmare with regards to how they are getting through, by all metrics its a sh1tshow over there. Now when any of the above hits Ireland and it will as we are a very open economy with a lot of our business conducted with the US, Germany and the UK so that will impact here and we are still on the high of being released from our imprisoning in the house over Covid not to mention the bulging savings Ireland had back in 2021 which has helped us through the first 2 quarters. So do you really think when Irish people see their livelihoods disappear they will support a vested interest who will be cushioned again from the recession and protected from forced redundancies and this group are striking or threatening to strike as they looking for a 10%+ pay rise - haha you must be joking.
How do you find it hard to understand? He has been against the public service on here for years and years. He is a WUM.
You mean he is making too much sense so lets ridicule him good man go play with the WUM between you legs if you cant make a decent argument there good boy
You are a wum. You make zero sense , your grasp of economics is hilarious. Wum.
The links are there to back up what I am saying if you dont want to read then dont. I am under no illusion that you will get a pay rise this year but to base it on inflation that has shot up over the last 12 months or so due to 2 factors that will be resolved at some point in the future is going to back fire on everyone else when the recession hits.
The links are there for not even half of your ****. The pay rise will be NOWHERE near the inflation figure. There is ZERO chance of deflation of over 10% you know that , you are a troll for suggesting that it is probable never mind possible. We were due 1% anyway. We are more than likely going to get a pay rise less than half inflation. So not exactly going to be counting our gold bullion. God i would snap there hand off for a pay rise based on inflation.
There is every possibility of deflation we had 3 periods of deflation in the last 15 years and one very significant period that hit nearly 5% deflation after the last recession. So your 100% wrong saying there is zero chance of deflation. Its just the narrative of getting a pay rise based on temporary inflation and then forgetting the pay per head in the public sector increased by over 10% from 2014 to 2021 and inflation only went up by 3% in that period , so why no pay cuts back then if you want to chase inflation?
So you think there will be double the biggest number of deflation we have ever had do you? You think we should base this pay agreement on something that has never nearly happened not once in the history of our state?
Its not even what i said "zero chance of deflation over 10%"
It all depends. If the government follow through on chasing inflation then it may not come down that far but you have to factor in that 1.2 million private sector employees are getting zero pay rises and there is going to be an avalanche of job losses in the sector. your arguing ah it never happened before but if that was the case then nothing would ever really change you only have to look at the political sphere and see we never had Sinn Fein in power in the state and they will be getting in at some point in the near future. You cannot base something not happening just because it never happened before. We just went through the first, second and third ever lockdown during Covid so arguing that it never happened before is not really a valid argument at all.
If you had told yourself 10 years ago in 2012 that in 2022 the shiners would be the most popular party in the country and that for the guts of 2/3 years we would be locked in our gaffs for months at a time over a virus you would never have believed it, Why because they never happened before
Sorry to make your position clear , you are advocating no pay rise because you see 10% deflation as a real possibilty?
No I advocating on the following 4 points taken together.
Wages per head in the public sector between 2014 and 2021 went up by over 10% and inflation in that period only went up by 3% a significant pay rise if the commentary on here are talking about a pay cut if wage do not match inflation.
Basing a pay rise on inflation that has proven to be linked to 2 specific issues that will come to an end which will mean inflation will turn into deflation it may not be 10% but what happens if you get 10% pay rises and then deflation hits 5% again like it did after the last recession do you guys get a 5% pay cut?
The globe is heading into a recession to think Ireland can magically dodge this when the 3 countries (US, UK and Germany) that would factor into our open economy are all in trouble. I have put links up of an 8% increase in insolvencies in Q1 in 2022 and that was while the government supports for businesses were still in play.
Our tax take from MNCs is now a building block which our spend it based on, if a few of the big 10 hits the sh1t Ireland is in trouble. It will be 2008 again when the stamp duty dried up. With that in mind the government should be a bit more prudent with the countries cash flows. We still have major debts that will be more expensive in the future with the hiring of interest rates.
Sorry your first paragraph that is including contractual increments? Something that people have taken the job based on?
Your 2nd paragraph, there is zero chance of getting a 10% payrise - no fear there for you.
The globe is not necessarily heading into a recession. There is as much evidences to suggest it isnt as there is it is.
Our tax take from the MNCS is more than likely going to increase than decrease. Their profits are increasing.
So do you advocate no pay rise?
OK well where in your contract does it say your pay should go up in money when inflation is more than your pay rises your receiving? Answer = Its not there yet you guys are asking for it so its a valid question to ask why where you all not looking for a pay cut when your wages per head went up by 7% more than inflation in the years between 2014 and 2021. You cant have it both ways. You cant use inflation to get more of a pay rise without looking at those years where the differential was in the minus and by the logic in here you should of had a pay cut of 7%
Really, so we are not heading into recession, the US are already in one :) I put up 8 links (there are literally hundreds to look at) to different things going on in the 3 countries which would have a huge sway on our open economy, if you want to keep your head in the sand by all means do so.
Have you seen consumer sentiment ratings over the last 6 months its gone on a downward trajectory and almost in the negative so in effect people are stating to think things are going to get worse and it will get worse as they will they will have to get through a winter of high energy and food prices with less deposable income. So in 6 months time when our energy bills and food prices are though the roof do you think people will be more likely to spend their discretionary income on restaurants, new cars, holidays etc, the answer is no as they will need more for the day to day necessities and will be less likely to be frivolous with their money and people calling for a recession will become a self fulfilling prophecy. The very fact that people in the public sector are looking for pay increases to match inflation would suggest that people are already struggling.
Once again I have put up links to hiring freezes from the MNCs if everything is gang busters for MNCs then why is this happening??
I advocate leaving the current agreement in place and revisit it in 12 months and see where we are.
leave the current agreement in place and every public service will be on strike by the of end september - mid october at the latest
Well go ahead and strike - I cant see there being much sympathy from the general public , they have their own costs to factor in and you lads getting 10% only adds to it.
Nobody thinks we are getting 10% . We are also the general public. There has been a raft of wage increases in the private sector. I can guarantee you that a public sector increase will increase the "general publics" chance of an increase as well.
its a figure constantly regurgitated and I have seen some looking for 15% and the ah look at Tescos they got 10% brigade.
if tesco as you indicate are getting a 10% rise provided for earlier in the year - and inflation now by all accounts is set to rise even further from 9 to 18.5+% this winter into early next year -- workers are only prudent to seek further compensation to protect basic living standards
Where does it state this in your employment contract?
My (public sector) employment contract says nothing about wages. Wage rates are negotiated with the government through national wage agreements. That is the process that this thread is about...
where does it state it in your contract of employment or tesco workers for that matter 🤣🤣 the dogs on the street know that employers won't retain workers if salaries don't keep some basic track of inflation over a 40 year career - with inflation at over 9% with projections heading for 18% this winter - employer's would want to take a good hard look at their compensation offerings
He's been banging the same drum on here the last 10 years. He's not going to have a change of heart at this stage. It's quite sad to see really, to be pitied more than anything.
Why in the name of all that is holy is anyone trying to engage with someone who is so uninformed on pretty much every argument he presents.
Talks to resume on Monday, Predictions?
10% 😂
Hopefully an agreement on something at this stage!
Fliball123 is gonna be paying us more money.
I say we fleece him for all he's worth.😈
