100%.
Respectfully disagree.
He main hold the base, but moderate republicans, independents and democrats will not stomach Trump for 4 more years.
I am hoping he runs frankly.
The midterms will be an indication but only truly relevant at that moment in time.
There are very few moderate Republicans left in places of influence - they either go pro-Trump or lose their ats a la Cheney. The democrats aren't doing anything worthwhile to inspire confidence. Dunno about the independents.
"There are very few moderate Republicans left in places of influence - they either go pro-Trump or lose their ats a la Cheney"
The people running may win the nomination, but it's all about what the public want when it comes to the elections. Sure, there are examples of extreme trumpite candidates winning but there are also examples of those losing.
Red states may remain red, but there will be a lot more closely run elections in battleground states.
"The democrats aren't doing anything worthwhile to inspire confidence."
The fact is they have. There is a problem with messaging but they absolutely have passed key legislation. They need to nail that **** down. The problem is, Trump's legal woes are a lot more interesting to people so little time is spent informing folks on positive news.
I like to be optimistic, the fucker could keel over and die before 2025. He's not exactly young.
I can't remember who it was, maybe John Oliver, who did a piece about how the Democrats keep focusing on Federal elections; the House and Senate. The GOP put a lot of effort into the State elections; local judges, school boards, mayors, State officials etc.
It helps the GOP because it gives them greater control in what happens within the states, what's being taught in schools, police budgets, state laws, gerrymandering and also voting laws (how many polling centres, where are they, what ID is needed, voting registers etc).
That's a huge part of why the GOP maintain the hold they have over a lot of states which could otherwise shift away from them. The Dems aim for the level where they can do big things nationally, but the GOP are more focused on more numerous, smaller changes throughout the country.
Trump has created and fired up enough of a rabid base at low levels who will seep into those school boards and local official levels that will end up having a huge impact further down the line.
Are the swing voters going to be happy with the bills though? Even if they know about them?
But therin lies the other porblem: the media. They will always focus on Trum0, good or bad.
Elections are ultimateyl won by who shouts the loudest - and that's going to be te Republicans.
Also the food he claims to eat coupled with his bizarre theory that humans have a finite amount of energy like a battery so he refuses to do any formal exercise isn't gonna leave him long for this world
Well when you hire sycophantic doctors like Ronny Jackson who tell you you're the healthiest President who ever lived, why would you feel the need to eat better or do exercise?
Can you imagine the conspiracy theories of he did die?
"TRUMP / JFK Jr 2052 - Make Qamerica Great Again!"
If anyone is absolutely guaranteed to live to the age of 100, it's Donald J Trump.
We know that turnout in mid-terms is less than in Presidential election years: this probably benefits the GOP. Next question: what is the turnout in primaries, like Wyoming? If it's quite low (jut a hunch) then a general election result could be quite different when those (alas) lazy Dems turn out. Not much info on this side of the pond about these details.
Wyoming is tiny population wise , only a few hundred thousand in total (they still get 2 Senators though!!)
Wyoming is as Red as anywhere could be - The Primary is the real election there.
Cheney was beaten by a ratio of ~2:1 which is roughly what the general election would look like for the GOP against any Democrat challenger.
That seat is staying with the GOP and will be taken by Hageman who believes the Big lie and has a long career as a lawyer fighting against Environmental and social laws in Wyoming.
Thanks, I realise what you say about deep red Wyoming; I was thinking of primaries in congressional districts which are more competitive and where primaries may not dive a close prediction.
I think that there is a general opportunity for the Democrats to mobilise their voters - The GOP rarely seem to have that issue.
It's not really about 2022 , it's about 2024 and it's the State level elections that matter.
If for example, Kari Lake gets elected in Arizona as Governor in November , the Democrats can forget about winning the State in a 2024 POTUS Election as she will simply over-turn any result other than a clear GOP win.
There are several other States at the same risk - If the Democrats focus on that to drive engagement and turn-out it could be crucial to the results.
If U.S. states begin to overturn votes just because it wasn't the result its governor wanted, then you don't have rule by consent, nor a cohesive democracy or perhaps even a country. I don't think someone like Kari Lake is truly prepared to handle the chaos she could be instigating by pandering to Trumpers on that level.
I don't see any mental slowdown in Trump, he's perfectly electable in the eyes of his supporters and many Americans in terms of health. Yeah, technically he should be infirm going by his lifestyle by now, but he continues to buck that trend somehow.
I like the fact that she has now hinted she might just run for President in 2024. Potential headache for the GOP and entertaining to see just how annoyed he'd get!
Depends on how she chooses to run.
If she simply runs in the primaries against Trump it's pointless , she'll get wiped out.
Now - If she ran a well funded National campaign as an Independent it might present an opportunity to split the GOP vote in places to the benefit of the Democrat candidate. She could do a Perot - maybe.
I think she'd look at the latter if it happens as it gives her a better opportunity. She's got lots of brownie points on get excellent work on the Jan 6th hearings. Then again the chance to wreck his head in GOP primaries might be too much of a temptation!
It would be easy to cut together a video montage of Trump making weird gaffes and present that as Trump has dementia, as has been done with Biden. As far as his physical health goes, Trump may be an argument that pettiness and a desire for revenge can really keep a man going. He doesn't have a regular exercise regimen, drinks several sodas a day and extols the virtues of McDonalds' food. The experts would tell you he should have died about two decades ago.
That concession speech by Cheney last night was very interesting, she said she does not believe her political career is over and that she "will do whatever it takes to ensure Trump is never again anywhere near the Oval Office. And I mean it"". Then asked about a run on NBC she said "It’s something I’m thinking about, and I’ll make a decision in the coming months"
Given her political career in the GOP is effectively over that can only mean she is considering running as an independent. She said she is now going to start a PAC dedicated to unifying Reps, Democrats and Independents to keep Trump out of the White House. That would be some epic level trolling of Trump because Cheney would easily manage to take 10% of the GOP vote off Trump to prevent him winning in 2024 and that would drive him absolutely nuts. If she does look like entering the race suddenly Bidens current odds of 11/2 look to be a bargain.
Trumps response to Cheney on his platform-
Liz Cheney should be ashamed of herself, the way she acted, and her spiteful, sanctimonious words and actions towards others. Now she can finally disappear into the depths of political oblivion where, I am sure, she will be much happier than she is right now. Thank you WYOMING!
Its almost like he is goading her into running, he has no tact whatsoever.
Makes sense. The Repiblican Party has been in civil war mode since the election "theft", theres the regular normal Republicans who actually have Republican beliefs, and the Trump diehards who worship DonDon above everything else.
You saw those recent shots of him playing golf right?
Rudy
Oh go and **** off.
Such a weak and petty little man-baby!
Going by polling done a while back 75% of Rep voters believe the election was stolen so are firmly team Trump. If Cheney could tap that other 25% who hate him it would translate to around 12% nationally which would mean he cant win the White House. Biden only won by 11,000 votes in Georgia and less than 50k in a couple of other states but if Cheney is in the race Trump wont be to make those numbers up if votes are leaking to her. Trump may have won the battle to oust Cheney in Wyoming but he hasnt won the war, she could very well have the last laugh.
The trouble is, Cheney could also end up gathering votes from some anti-Trumpers who would have been independent or GOP, who otherwise would vote for Biden.
Cheney would have to pull from Trump without also pulling from Biden.
Unfortunately Trump is a non-smoker and a teetotaler
