As others have said, it's effectively a stalemate at the moment.There's increasing indication that Ukraine is preparing a major push into Russian territory, recent HIMARS/M270 strikes against Russian ammunition and supply dumps, command centres, the bridges across the Dnieper in Kherson as well as today's strike against Nova Fedorivka air base in Crimea seem a lot like "battlefield preparation" strikes to me, but so far, the actual offensive has not kicked off.
It seems like Kherson Oblast might be the focus of any future Ukrainian push. Ukraine has been making small gains there since the spring, and the region is the only Russian bridgehead west of the Dnipro meaning that even before the strikes against the Antonivka bridge and others, Russian troops in Kherson were at the far end of a rather tenuous supply line. Even by "just" pushing the Russians back to the eastern bank of the Dnipro would bring many supply roads from Crimea north towards the Donbas into range of Ukrainian artillery. More crucially though, it would present a massive threat to the North Crimean Canal, a major source of fresh water for Crimea that starts at the Nova Kahovka dam on the Dnipro. Cutting off the canal again would cause significant water shortages on the peninsula. So all in all, a push in Kherson offers a lot of strategic advantages, especially since Russia"s focus appears to remain concentrated on the Donbas, leaving Kherson as a comparatively softer target.
I'd also recommend keeping an eye on the YouTube channel of the Bundesheer, the Austrian Armed Forces. Most of their videos are in German, but every month or so, they publish an English language recap of the developments in Ukraine. These presentations are made by Colonel Markus Reisner, Head of R&D at the Theresian Military Academy in Wiener Neustadt, Austria's counterpart to the likes of Sandhurst or West Point and are generally really good to catch up on developments:
Russia Iran have launched a satellite for surveillance on ukraine, could be of big benefit to russia when your looking at how good ukraines intelligence has been so far
lol shrapnel. That looks like a structural steel girder. Some force to shift that. could there have been thermobaric weapons on site ?
It would not surprise me if they keep the aircraft fully loaded out obviously with safeties in. Ukrainians could have got wind of Air to ground mission. With 500lb bombs or bigger. It was some bang. I'm not sure If the Russians use a centralised Ammo storage or several spread out on the facility. But something big went off. Seems a bigger explosion than we have seen in some of the ammo dumps.
For sure Russia is not currently winning, and these long range weapons are game changers. so if the Russians are not advancing, or only at a snails pace, then they are losing, and TBH, I think that ultimately Ukraine will win. If the Russian ammo dumps are being destroyed, faster then they can be replaced, there can be only one outcome for them.
Shrapnel damage to a car in the carpark at the airbase.
Those were massive explosions in those videos. Clearly something significant was being hit on the ground - either aircraft or munitions.
It certainly brings us closer to a nuclear threat, if it was Ukraine that did this. - like any escalation in this war.
During the cold war, there were many instances where we can close to nuclear war. Mistakes can be made.
Regarding the power plants - Chernobyl had fail safes, as did Fukushima. These two accidents happened because of human error and natural events. How good are the fail safes if the plant is actually being bombed? Operators will be under pressure, mistakes can be made or critical cooling infrastructure could be destroyed. They didn't bomb the plants when they were testing the fail safes.
Here's something interesting. I used Playback on FR24 to see what aircraft were operational at the time of the explosions in Crimea. So, yesterday Monday, at 12.20,
Both a Global Hawk....
....and a US Navy EP3 Orion were both monitoring Crimea. At the same time....
This is most unusual to have both looking at the same area. Then today around the time of the explosions, the EP-3 is back, together with a KC-135 on CAP near the Moldovan border. This is a clear indication that it was refueling other assets with their transponders off. May not be connected, bit some interesting activity in the lead-up to, and during, the attack. Today's snapshot...
KC-135 is the following...
Possibly. As a previous poster mentioned, there is limited security around perimeter.
You're an ad man's wet dream 🤤
This image is identical to the Google Earth image from mid-2021. I'd be sceptical.
Thats some amount of boom for a few lads with backpacks of explosives, you'd want to get very luck with your placements
😂 Yes, we should ignore that on a week that a nuclear plant was bombed and warnings of nuclear war on the news.
Massive amount of air power lost in a single day. The Russians we're not using them to the best of their abilities but to loose a massive amount in 1 day the ordinary Russian soldier will notice them gone from the Battlefield.
Could be as simple as sappers deployed behind enemy lines to cause havoc on targets. Happed to find the base guarded by a load of drunks. I mean you would want a decent amount of time to set that up the way it goes up.
Maybe a Ukraine Special Forces job? Could they have placed explosives at strategic spots?
Poster Jackboy has been talking up the 'nuke' threat previously.
Here's an update from 30 mins ago..
large assault expected from Ukraine.
Can't be 100% sure of this source though.
Hopefully we may see the Ukranian side make some progress in the Kherson region soon enough, seems that they are taking out several strategic bridges, and might be starting to spook the Russians their at the moment.
I have close relations of family who are there on "holidays", from Moscow. Relations who have/had certain positions in the Nazi army. Apparently they are not leaving. Do they have a choice is what I wonder
You would wonder why the families of Russian invaders are even their. Could be something to do with certain staged referendums being planned their?
Of course thats ok according to some people because the people will get to vote on it.
yes, its a statemale
Watching the video, it's clear there had already been several explosions on the airfield (which is why people like this one started filming from several kilometres away). Talk that there may have been as many as 8-10 explosions in total seems plausible.
Is anyone up on the overall situation. Is Russia making ground or Ukraine pushing them back? Is it essentially a stalemate?
Cannot really find an overall up to date view
Hmm. I don't know. I've seen something like this before, and it looks very, very like timed charges. Those explosions are milliseconds apart. It would be extremely coincidental if two missiles were launched and reached their targets at exactly the same time. Possible, though. They could also be AGM-88's. Fired as a salvo from a back-engineered Western missle rail on a Flanker. Even though these are anti-radiation missiles ( HARMS), co-ordinates can be preloaded into the software before flight. The targets do not have to be emitting radar waves. The Ukranian aviation industry can he very innovative! I'm guessing either SF-set timed charges, or a salvo of HARMS from either a fighter, or some other industrious means.
Could be totally wrong, of course!
This video clearly shows two major simultaneous explosions at the airbase, possibly a couple of hundred metres away from each other - strongly suggesting a missile attack.
lol
One person died as a result of explosions in Novofedorovka - the head of the Crimea Aksyonov. Earlier, the Crimean Ministry of Health reported five victims.
There definitely is, but we're nowhere near that point. We've had shelling near a nuclear plant, and then the classic media blow up designed to do nothing more other than generate revenue. Quotes and reports of landmines on the site are being discredited, but Sky News still ride the coattails of the story today with a headline stating that shelling around the plant continues, even though they're referring to Nikopol over 60km away.
There's no nuclear threat, at the plant or by weapon. Any risk comes from meltdown from accidental power cut, but that will only happen unintentionally and there failsafes in place to allow time for prevention, which would be the ideal outcome for both parties.
Russia isn't going to radiate the place and their own country, it wouldn't make any sense.
Talking of "nuke territory" is beyond premature.
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