Following on from
this thread
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Possible trouble ahead in Paradise?
It will be fun when they explain to the public how this needs to be paid for!
The reason they keep him is because there is no actual need to replace him. Parties don't do this on a whim and generally prefer an ordered approach. They are halfway into a third successive term in government and may even get a fourth one. The election of 2024/2025 IMO will decide his fate either way, whether he steps away or is replaced after it although if in government he might want to get to 10 years first!
36% in the middle of summer 2022 is no indication of anything at an election in 2024 or 2025. FG got a huge seat bonus because people completely dropped FF as transfer choices, something SF really can't guarantee and their strategy will almost be FPTP. The risk there is picking too many candidates in the wrong places. It's of no use for SF to have 36%+ in a place like Louth where they will easily get candidates in but it does need to be managed where they can bring someone new in and maybe help a potential ally get in as well. It's not the seats they get, it's their ability to do deals for government and there are few that will. As I said the larger SF become the less attractive they are as a government partner to other parties.
Like Darragh O Brien who has now declared he has no responsibility over housing issues, Stephen Donnelly might try the same approach here
The ongoing Health Service Disaster
10,000 hospital patients without a bed in June - INMO (rte.ie)
'Out-of-control' overcrowding saw 10,000 patients without a bed in June - INMO
Almost 10,000 patients went without a bed in Irish hospitals last month, according to the Irish Nurses and Midwives Organisation.
It said around 9,961 patients were waiting for a bed in the worst June on record since it began collating figures in 2006.
Today's Trolley Watch figures show 424 patients were waiting for beds this morning. Of those, 362 people were waiting in emergency departments, while 62 were in other wards.
INMO General Secretary Phil Ní Sheaghdha said: "It has been a June like we have never seen in Irish hospitals with out-of-control hospital overcrowding coupled with rising Covid hospitalisations.
"In 16 years of counting trolleys, we've never seen June figures higher than the preceding January.
"Nurses are constantly raising the dangers associated with overcrowding in their workplaces, however the figures for the month of June are out of control and a stark warning of what is to come for the autumn and winter period, considering none of the mitigation measures necessary are being implemented.
"This level of overcrowding warrants senior HSE and government attention, it is not OK and it is not safe."
It also wants to convene the Emergency Department Taskforce "as a matter of urgency to ensure there is independent oversight in relation to the implementation of recommendations."
Did you not read my post, i agree no housing issues apart from Dublin
Wonder why there's no pictures of the interior?
Might be in a bit of a state.
Here is a two-bed property in Cork city centre, available for €150k, attainable for a single person on less than the average wage.
Tut Tut (Again)
Alls good so, housing marking is grand. 90k and you shouldn't struggle too much to grab a house in Cork.
Thanks for clarifying
Look over there.
Their fortunes have been on steady decline. I wouldn't put too much weight in the current crisis.
varadkar is just not good at his job. There's no escaping that. The only reason FG keep him is the poorer options.
SF really can't win 70 seats plus off 36%
Can't they? FG won 76 seats in 2011 on the back of 36% of FPV. People keep saying SF have peaked in the polls but they keep rising...
Its the only area housing can be somewhat linked for a section of the city to the opposition for less than five years, about 7 years ago.
I can't see them getting 70 seats but if they got late 50s, I can't imagine FG and FF combination are much more than that. They're 72 now isn't it and they likely drop seats from that based on their performance and people's anger, and Greens drop too.
90 x 3.5 = 315k
Help to buy gives one an extra 30k to play with.
Add in a 10% deposit, that is a house worth about 380k
There are loads of NEW houses for sale in Cork for much less than that.
Figures seem off at first glance.
Also, a couple on 90k is middle-income people. So quite achievable. Not easy, and it is expensive but it's achievable
If I commented on some particular aspects of her being female, you may have a point. For example, there was a big pile on Helen McEntee when she announced her pregnancy, people commenting on her hair, her ability to do her job as a mother and being missing from her post because of her having a baby.
THAT is misogynistic.
On that, Isn't this the same John O'Driscoll who was tasked with overseeing the investigation into Leo by the AGS unit, National Bureau Criminal Investigation?
Edit yeah it is
If the people made choices other than AB(FFG) one would respect it but they don't and then they get annoyed when parties have to sort out the business of forming a government they say they didn't want. SF really can't win 70 seats plus off 36% and they will be back down by election time. I think FF will favour the status quo over giving up their Republican party claim to SF.
Ah, ok. Its the way I post them..... right! Even though you dismissed them all out of hand.
if FF see an option to return to the present set-up they'll be out too.
I'm not so sure about that. If FF essentially face a choice between putting SF and FG into power there'll be a big onus on them to go with the former. By that stage FG will have been in power for nearly 15 years and will be looking very jaded. Whereas SF will have a massive bandwagon behind them on likely 70ish seats. If FF cut another deal with FG in those circumstances it'll look like the establishment parties ganging up to frustrate the wishes of the people...
This old chestnut of topping the poll stuff and getting elected on the fifth count rubbish. FG ran two candidates in Dublin West, with a really stretched target of two seats. They fell well short, but if Varadkar had run on his own, he would have been elected on the first count.
FG got nearly 28% share in 2020. Murphy got 16.03% of that. Andrews on his own got 16.07% so it's pretty obvious it was nothing else. As for the toxic thing well that's a price any party would pay to stay in power for up to 8 years. There are many ways to power and he is aided by the public who will not be specific enough on what it is they want. Bear in mind, the PDs, with never more than 10 seats, were in 4 governments.
It seemed, according to some reports, that she was the victim of Varadkar's clique. It wasn't the rise of SF that cost her the seat. It was FG's infighting. Varakdar was only elected on the fifth count in his own constituency and he was the outgoing taoiseach. An SFer topped the poll there. Varadkar has been absolutely toxic for FG.
Regards...jmcc
I'm just talking about in that constituency and she was by far the weaker of the two candidates. She was a one term rep because of Chris Andrews and the rise of the SF vote. FG were still in around 28%-29% share for both elections but Andrews went from under 10% to 16% in 2020. Varadkar does what he needs to do in a competitive constituency. Do people genuinely do the top of party vote? Mostly I see local preferences at work.
Seems to me the current government is and has been a rag bag of convenience since day one.
Your probably correct about the possible make up of next government but I'd be curious how these 11 new TD'S will impact on the next GE results, who will benefit, who won't, redrawing constituencies lines may suit some but certainly not other's.
Fascinating discussion on this last night on the late debate.
Is she the weak link on their party ticket though?
I would imagine Leo does a lot worse than her in elections, I think he got in on the 4th or 5th count? She was only a one-term rep due to Leo. As for Petty - Leo much? Are you forgetting his tantrums? Her paranoia seems to have been justified... IIRC many of her constituents were on the radio during the by-election saying that they wanted to vote for her. Leo had convince Eoghan Murphy to run again when all he wanted was out. Couldn't handle the pressure.
Leo didn't even get the overall FG majority vote for the leadership. I would imagine he is a very weak ticket, The elections that they have lost under him show that.
The outcome of the election may be predictable but that of the subsequent government arithmetic is not. In reality both FG & FF are a known quantity and inclined to be accommodating to some extent to smaller partners. The question here is whether to do as the Greens have done and get 4-5 years of recognisable policies in place and then hope for the best. That approach may just not work for some possible partners and their voters. I actually think they will be OK this time and should most if not all their seats, because of the times we are in.
The irony for SF is that the more seats they get the less likely they are to secure power, as their only real source of support is on the left and which party of the left wants to cede to the competition. In short, they will become the problem in certain quarters. FG will not deal with them, probably ever, and if FF see an option to return to the present set-up they'll be out too. That just leaves the rag-bag of Independents and no sane party builds a government on that basis.
Jesus this Navan hospital situation is so chaotic. Minister Donnelly seems to be completely ostracised.
Apart from the poll toppers, all other seats depend on transfers. Ring's report is something that responsible political parties do as an election post-mortem. These reports would, I think, be based on transfer patterns and votes.
That website is an interesting analysis but it may miss the fratricide effect for FF and FG. This is where FF and FG candidates will be constesting the same seat and the same votes. A single FF/FG candidate might have enough votes to take a seat but because they are splitting the vote, the candidate that is marginally ahead of both may have a better chance of taking a seat. This played out in the 2020 GE but it was party-specific. (2 FG candidates knocking each other out and a Green taking the seat because they were eliminated.) If the fratricide effect played out on a larger scale for FF/FG, then their seat losses would be worse. FF and FG need to work on their candidate strategy and not make a mess of it like they did in 2020.
The opinion polls generally only survey first preferences. That's fine for a simple First Past The Post system but PR:STV means that the transfers play a much larger part in getting TDs elected. One poll also surveyed second preferences a while ago and it found that FF/FG transfers were staying within FF/FG. The electorate is beginning to treat FF and FG as a single party even if they haven't merged yet. That brand dilution has been caused by Varadkar and Martin and it has played a part in the rise of SF as it has a much clearer and less ambiguous brand.
