@[Deleted User] But those rules were during a world crisis, a pandemic , and were no different from rules put in place by governments the world over .
Granted there are a few despotic governments in there but I beg to differ with you that ours or the majority would be seen as ' despotic 'by the majority , least of all Hobbes.
The opposite is true... that the majority appreciated the above and accepted that their governments were acting in their best interest during a particularly difficult and generationally unknown crisis.
Not saying that we weren't all fed up with it or that no mistakes were made .
But it is far superior to a laissez faire and frankly dangerous approach of wait and see , doing nothing and then hunkering down on that approach when all the data was pointing to the approach by most other countries.
We will not agree on this and while I accept your point of view I think it doesn't work for me . So I bid you adieu
Majority is not synonymous with correct, Brexit occurred, after all. The majority of the world used to think that the Earth was the centre of the universe too.
I bid you adieu too, though it is not customary for me to ignore/avoid those that I do not agree with (it might be for you).
Those who swim against the tide have never been popular, and I am no exception:)
Hahaha! Hilarious stuff. So we're back to saying that Sweden did well because they did lockdown...
When we know they didn't.
It's waste of anybodys time replying to you. You can't get any more dishonest than cherry picking 2 single countries to compare Sweden to in 1 specific timeframe.
Just look at the latest estimates from the WHO and admit Sweden did grand and didn't lockdown.
Most of those who did worse than Sweden besides those mentioned above had their own issues with crappy government decisions and lack of vaccination.
Remember the giant street party in Hungary after the first wave , followed by another wave of infections due to restrictions being lifted too early .
Here we struggled because we have a porous border with the UK and NI has consistently had higher deaths and hospitalisations due to Boris's on-off restrictions and the politicisation of restrictions there .
So many here on the forum cheerleading all this bs and declaring " Covid over " and restrictions useless over and over between waves ...wanting us to go the same direction as UK and Sweden .
The restrictions here saved a generation of people that are gone now in those countries and others like the US where politicisation of Covid policy over 2020 allowed the pandemic to kill so many before vaccinations were approved.
You are on the wrong side of history guys ..
https://www.business-standard.com/article/international/corona-commission-report-criticises-sweden-s-coronavirus-response-122022600147_1.html
This is the same commission that was reported on here?
The commission - set up by the government under pressure from parliament - said Sweden's broad policy was "fundamentally correct".
Sweden didn't lockdown
Actually thats incorrect. Sweden did have lockdown measures, around social distancing, ban on gatherings, travel restrictions.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swedish_government_response_to_the_COVID-19_pandemic
On 10 March 2020, responding to indications of community transmission, the Public Health Agency advised everyone with respiratory infections, even mild cases, to refrain from social contacts where there is a risk of spreading the virus, in private as well as working life. They also ask health care staff working with risk groups, including nursing homes, not work if they have any symptoms of respiratory infection. Relatives of elderly were advised to avoid unnecessary visits at hospitals and in facilities for elderly, and never visit if there are any respiratory symptoms.[68][69]
Face masks were initially not recommended or were actively discouraged by authorities for the general public and in healthcare settings.[70][71][72] On June 25, 2020, masks were recommended in care home and healthcare settings only in cases of treating COVID-19 patients.[73] In December 2020, it was announced that masks would be recommended on Stockholm public transport from January 2021, the first time authorities had advised the public to wear them.[72][74] Some healthcare institutions, care homes and schools implemented rules outside of government guidance.[71]
As COVID-19 progressed so did the measures taken. On 10 January 2021 an Act was passed that provided the Government the right to place rules on curbing public and private gatherings, and limit international and domestic travel.[75][76][73] The law was a temporary pandemic law and allowed for Sweden to place time limits on when businesses can open and close.[76] On 30 June 2021 a travel ban was introduced on anyone from the United States or EEA.[73][77] Exceptions were on travellers from Denmark, Finland, Iceland and Norway.[77] The ban was set to be lifted on 31 October 2021.[78]
Regulations were then created to take place on 1 July 2021.[76] Numbers of people who could be in one place such as a restaurant, or store was limited, as well as social gatherings being limited to no more than 8 people.[76][79] Remote work was recommended if possible, and on 17 March[when?] school was made fully online.[73] Furthermore, recommendation to be tested after staying abroad was added and will be extended.[80]
Starting from 29 September 2021 more pandemic-related restrictions were lifted.[81][82] Advice was reintroduced on 8 December 2021 to work from home, wear face masks on public transport and free COVID-19 testing was reintroduced in response to the Omicron variant.[72]
Not ignoring you at all just recognise we are not going to agree.
And have to cook the dinner !
Funny that . They said it was ' broadly correct ' when they finally took measures in late 2020 .
From your article.
More than 17,000 people have died from or with COVID-19 in Sweden, far more per capita than among Nordic neighbours
But much better than Bulgaria. So well done.
This was prior to the Lancet excess mortality report, which none of those countering my points has countered.
Let's look at the Lancet report again (https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)02796-3/fulltext#seccestitle150 Full table: https://www.thelancet.com/action/showFullTableHTML?isHtml=true&tableId=tbl1&pii=S0140-6736%2821%2902796-3):
Estimated excess mortality rate (per 100 000)
Norway (7·2)
Sweden (91·2)
Denmark (94·1) (worse than Sweden)
Finland (80·8 )
Norway is the outlier here, not Sweden
(around in circles we go again)
Where did I write that Sweden locked down? So don't talk to me about dishonesty and cherry picking. From the poster who earlier on the thread wanted to compare Sweden only Ireland and to anybody but its nearest neighbours !
Other posters have documented on the thread that the Swedish approach changed over the course of the pandemic, starting in autumn 2020 with capacity limits on gatherings, early closures of bars. Sweden's higher excess deaths in 2020 reflected their failed strategy, which they abandoned. Sweden were not doing grand. That gamble failed.
So if you're talking about Sweden 2020 and Sweden 2021 you are talking about two different strategies. The 2020 strategy was particular to Sweden. The 2021 strategy, which included vaccines, was not.
That the consequences of the gamble weren't worse were down to Sweden starting with high ICU capacity, no highly concentrated cities, large number of single households, bordering the countries it bordered and the voluntary adherence of the population to guidance (as evidenced in drop in economic spending).
The other Western country which tried the Swedish approach was the UK. They had to abandon it as the NHS reached its limits. Locking down a week earlier could have halved the death toll and that inaction had consequences for Ireland also. I've no doubt if Ireland had tried the same approach our results would have been closer to UK than Sweden.
UK lockdown a week earlier could have halved COVID-19 death toll, scientist says | Reuters
And Ireland which you were comparing Sweden to previously ?
Ireland according to the Lancet study is 12.5 . ( per 100 k)
Well observed (not patronising you, just for clarity) I was wondering when someone would mention that.
There is a lot of insights in that Lancet study but chief among them (that I was pointing out) was that Norway is an outlier (as is Ireland), but the comparison between Sweden, Denmark and Finland is not so obvious.
I simply replied to the article you linked to with what's in the article.
That Lancet report I can't follow at all. "...Estimating expected mortality with an ensemble model" I have tried and failed.
I can't find anything else that matches its figures for Denmark. I presume its a propriety model. I can find no reason for its figures on Denmark. I was thinking perhaps there something that explains it in other articles and stats. But drawn a blank.
I did find this. "Comparing the responses of the UK, Sweden and Denmark to COVID-19 using counterfactual modelling" which puts some prediction on Denmark following Sweden's approach.
I mentioned this earlier, but Denmark had a lot of deaths this year (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/denmark/) - check the graph Total Coronavirus Deaths in Denmark.
Remember though that excess deaths are not necessarily always due directly to COVID.
I know that all if the studies evaluating the response to the pandemic make reference to excess death rates as a better indicator but there are differences in each country .
Denmark and Finland had open EU borders / citizens working in other countries for the most part so less control over their rates of infection.
Norway closed its border with Sweden early on...hence they controlled their own infection rates .
The ability of countries to continue non Covid treatment and elective work affected excess death numbers . Sweden did not admit or even test in some instances elderly or vulnerable populations for Covid . Over 70s were not admitted to ICU with Covid . Many in nursing homes were not even seen by a doctor .
As a result their health system did not get overwhelmed to the same extent as other countries . However their healthcare staff bore the brunt of infections and left , as did teachers who were told to carry on teaching with no mitigation measures whatsoever .
The whole disastrous unethical and dangerous situation is documented ably in this article which is an evaluation of everything that went on in Sweden ..
It is a long but very good read and shows how conspiracy theorists and an anti science bias and sheer pigheadedness can kill thousands of people .
From the Economist excess deaths from March 2020 - Spring 2022
Sweden 131
Finland 107
Ireland 84
Denmark 73
Norway 57
Iceland 32
"Sources also include the Human Mortality Database, a collaboration between UC Berkeley and the Max Planck Institute in Germany, and the World Mortality Dataset, created by Ariel Karlinsky and Dmitry Kobak."
https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-deaths-tracker
Ah now, don't be giving me homework! But, I guess I will have to read it (the treatment you mention of those aged 70+ is news to me).
I am not much into conspiracy theories (as I mentioned before, I search for truth) except for mild entertainment. I could never work out what Bill Gates was supposed to have done wrong, for example.
This is older data than that presented in the lancet study.
Yes it is odd because Denmark did very well throughout .
However that study only looks at numbers in 2020.
Sweden revised its policy as you document yourself above, from late 2020, due to pressure from regional governments , healthcare workers who were leaving in their droves , and teachers and schools who were adopting masks and other mitigation measures , lol, against government advice !
This improved their numbers ( if they bothered to test them !) for 2021.
Denmark got badly hit by Delta in Autumn 2021 after abandoning all mitigation measures prematurely.
And then of course Omicron levelled the curve for everybody .
You will have to explain how it has older data than the lancet study given that the data table for countries includes data from spring 2022. Some of the text may be from 2021. But the table is where the figures posted came from.
It seems they came out of restrictions while Delta variant still raging. Causing a rise in direct deaths from COVID. Then as Omnicron took over less deaths due to COVID. But more People died also happened have COVID but didn't die from from it.
Both things causing a statistical rise. And perhaps throwing statistical models which do not factor this. Seems odd for a country to know that you're not collecting stats correctly and not fix it.
https://www.thelocal.dk/20220217/explained-are-deaths-from-covid-19-in-denmark-increasing/
Yes. A lot of the articles quoted in the study I supplied there have echoes of all the worst anti science/ conspiracy theory posts that I have read on social media since this pandemic began .
Poor Bill , eh ? No good deed and all that....
And no , it is ( the Economist study ) updated to May 2022 , is it not ?
As I said a late Delta wave in Denmark and Omicron everywhere has levelled a lot .
But the fact remains , that Sweden if they had copped on 10 months earlier might have done as well as Norway .
What has Denmark`s death this year to do with lockdown and Sweden. Neither used lockdown this year.
If you want to compare the two then excess deaths in 2020 will show you the difference, or worldometers for the same year for Covid-19 deaths. Worldometers for 2020, Denmark with over half Sweden`s population had 1,269 Covid-19 deaths. Sweden 10,003.
Sorry, my mistake - I misread the publication date time and missed the updated date time - however, there is some discrepancy between that and the Lancet 'estimates', so - who is right? We have to work from the assumption that all data/evidence in science is provisional until some better data comes along to disprove/reinforce
OK, so the question then is - why didn't Denmark lockdown?
Because we need to look at the whole performance over the pandemic - different waves occurred at different times
Have to say some of those stats stop mid 2021, European countries up to April 22.
Can't understand why their numbers are so different to the Lancet and WHO ..do you know why ?
I'd like to know also
Yes. Like another political decision there but not public health decision .
We had the opposite here 👀mostly!
If you want to assess a countrys overall performance then yes.
But if you want to assess the impact of particular actions or inactions the issue is that over the course of the 2 year pandemic Sweden and Denmark for example did not have the same measures in place year to year. The more countries you throw into the mix the more difficult it becomes to isolate impacts.
Reducing timeframes might also make the data more tractable.
The data for 2020 that shows Sweden having a noticeably higher excess mortality than its peers seems solid to me. And justifies my view that Swedens 2020 strategy was wrong and not to be emulated. The country that tried to emulate it experienced disastrous results from doing so.
Dont forget UK went into lockdown before IE
You could just as easily look at it and say the lower hanging fruit fell faster with no severe lockdowns to kick the can down the road but eventually it levels out over time and they had a happier 2 years with no lockdowns
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