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Stormont Election 2022

Brussels Sprout

We're less than 4 weeks away from polling day (Thursday, May 5th). Nominations closed yesterday and 239 candidates will compete for 90 seats across 18, 5-seater constituencies.

Once again it's shaping up to be a bitter and divisive campaign. Only last night posters of the UUP leader, Doug Beattie, were displayed with a noose around his neck outside of an anti-protocol rally in Lurgan.

The hard unionist vote appears to be coalescing around DUP once again (at the expense of the TUV) but they are still some way behind Sinn Fein in the latest polls. However if the TUV don't pick up too many seats and their transfers go to the DUP then it looks like it'll be very tight, once again. The DUP's approach seems to be ramping up fear of a potential SF first minister and also hammering the Northern Ireland protocol at every given opportunity. The existential danger for them is that this kind of politics may play well with their base but every election that goes by that base shrinks in size relative to the wider electorate.

I'll be interested to see how the parties without a Nationalist/Unionist designation get on (Alliance, Greens & PBP). We keep hearing how this is the fastest growing demographic in northern Ireland so let's see if this manifests in greater representation. Last time out they won a combined 11 seats. I believe that the faster Northern Ireland can move beyond sectarian politics the better it will be for everyone living there.

The current assembly collapsed (once again) back in February when the DUP first minister, Paul Givan, resigned after an escalating series of events caused by the DUP's opposition to the Northern Ireland protocol. The NI Secretary of State has said that there is a very real risk that it will not resume even after this election for the same reason. There is also a concern that the DUP (and other unionist parties) will not wish to serve "under" a SF First Minister - this has been voiced by some of their own MLAs.

2017 results (seats)

DUP - 28
SF - 27
SDLP - 12
UUP - 10
Alliance - 8
Greens - 2
TUV, PBP, Ind Unionist - 1 each

Polling since then

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josip

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119024624#Comment_119024624

Good point, I was working from Gavin's spreadsheet. That would explain the disparity.

Larbre34

Let's be honest, Unionists would be more than delighted to live with direct rule from Westminster and local Councils only in NI, in perpetuity.

Itssoeasy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119024716#Comment_119024716

Well it would preserve the union in their minds, but from the videos I’ve seen that RTE filmed of voters, they seemed to want the cost of living issue and other run of the mills issues to be addressed which is fair enough because direct rule or not, those issues aren’t going away in the short term.

[Deleted User]

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119024672#Comment_119024672

Donaldson said earlier that he's not nominating anyone to the post so there won't be an assembly.

He stressed he had 7 days to inform Westminster if he was keeping his seat there or not

Larbre34

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119024847#Comment_119024847

They probably should have voted for parties not preoccupied with the abstract so.

Christy42

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119023944#Comment_119023944

Not looking like a million miles off. Just going by first preference (so a lot can change)

SF 29

DUP 27

AP 15

UUP 9

SDLP 6

TUV 2

Ind (both unionist) 2

So near as I can tell 40 unionist, 35 nationalist and 15 neutral but SF the biggest party. However potentially more important going forward is that it is at least 50 for the protocol vs at most 40 against it (I haven't seen Claire Sugden, an independent voice an opinion on it and the UUP seem to flip flop on it).

retalivity

Yer man Gavin whatever from the DUP that was on BBC NI earlier, as well as Donaldson both spoke to the UUP & about Unionism in general in very conciliatory tones, no doubt trying to get them onside. Made a change from the usual confrontational style, maybe they've finally copped that its the moderates that they should have gone after, not Jim Allister and his bible bashers.

pixelburp

SF received 250,388 first preferences, against 184,002 for the DUP; astonishing stuff. Not just on course for the most seats but generally the most "popular". Didn't they also have the same stat in our last general election, gaining the most 1st Prefs of all parties? Colours to the mast I'd never vote for them but one has to tip the hat to what has been a helluva rebrand.

Larbre34

Their ground game is peerless, their vote management exceptional.

I would never vote for them either, but if other parties in both jurisdictions are not right now wargaming strategies to take that on, then they are fools.

breezy1985

Who is this clown on BBC right now.

SF got 1/4 million and anti protocol got 1/4 so it's a 50/50 split.

Ya if you ignore all the other pro protocol parties

awec

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119025222#Comment_119025222

The English guy?

Hes a political academic.

awec

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119025038#Comment_119025038

Gavin Robinson. He is one of the DUP moderates.

That said, it was surprising to see him so conciliatory. He can be pompous when he wants to be.

breezy1985

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119025269#Comment_119025269

He has a clear bias whoever he is

pixelburp

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119025077#Comment_119025077

The rhetoric throughout the campaign has been solid. They've stayed the adult in the room, ignoring the Border Poll trolling from the DUP and responding with the mature reflection that now wasn't the time, not with pressing issues today. Which is true: there's a serious cost-of-living crisis and the DUP ranting only ever made them look like cranks, SF like states-people. Not that the DUP have been blown out the water, but all SF has to do now is continue to speak for NI, let the DUP continue to rave. As the saying goes, never interrupt your enemy when they are making a mistake.

VinLieger

Scarlet for that returning officer who couldn't pronounce Michelle McIlveen, guessing the I and the lower case L looked too similar on her sheet

[Deleted User]

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119024716#Comment_119024716

Yep, and when it comes to the long-term the Nationalists should be happy. I know I know, 800 years etc. but keeping Unionists from unfettered power is the key. Run fairly from London with their massive subvention and we'll see Nationalists continue to dominate higher education and academia (big improvements came once Stormont was shuttered) and become the biggest block in the medium and long term. At the end of the day, as much as people lie about it, the result of the border poll when it happens will have maybe a couple of percent of voters actually up for grabs, it'll mostly just be a sectarian headcount.

Mr.Nice Guy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119024883#Comment_119024883

Yes, looks like he's off to Westminster.

https://twitter.com/SJAMcBride/status/1522658375955271682

breezy1985

Whats the best site for vote breakdown for NI ?

Larbre34

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119025308#Comment_119025308

Was that the wee limey girl? She made a balls of "Aontú" all day too.

breezy1985

Poor auld Big Sammy looking very subdued on BBC

Edit: was back to himself by the end.

[Deleted User]

Sammy having an absolute car crash on BBC.

Larbre34

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119025493#Comment_119025493

As ever, the best places to see the detail is the Pol Corrs and academic wonks on twitter.

Here's the final vote share

breezy1985

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119025887#Comment_119025887

Belfast Telegraph had what I was after with full lists of every vote and round. Its got a really interactive breakdown of where surplus and the likes go

VinLieger

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119025739#Comment_119025739

Gutted i missed it and cant find a vid of it anywhere.

Stephen_Maturin

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119026551#Comment_119026551

https://www.reddit.com/r/northernireland/comments/ujy7rg/sammy_wilson_accuses_alliance_of_being_secret/

breezy1985

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119027019#Comment_119027019

The Alliance member on the panel was having none of it. Shot the whole thing down with ease.

Christy42

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119025739#Comment_119025739

I am not sure that he has had an interview that is not a car crash in his life.

The issue the DUP will have is that they are completely off the wall outside of the green vs orange debate. It will be hard for a neutral party to align with them frequently without alos going off the wall for the sake of balance.

Brussels Sprout

Sammy Wilson trying to portray the Alliance as Nationalist just because they don't agree with Unionists all of the time has vibes of the Putin regime in Russia portraying all of their opponents as Nazis.

Brussels Sprout

What was the 8th Count in Strangford for?

Count 1: purpose: first count; outcome: Armstrong elected, Macartney & King eliminated
Count 2: purpose: distribution of Armstrong's surplus + the transfers of the 2 eliminated; outcome: McGivern eliminated
Count 3: purpose: distributing McGivern's transfers; outcome: Smith eliminated
Count 4: purpose: distributing Smith's transfers; outcome: Weir eliminated
Count 5: purpose: distributing Weir's transfers; outcome: McIlveen elected
Count 6: purpose: distribution of McIlveen's surplus; outcome: Harvey elected
Count 7: purpose: distribution of Harvey's surplus; outcome: ????
Count 8: purpose: ????

After the 7th count I would have thought that Nick Mathison would have been eliminated as he was 46 votes behind Conor Houston. Instead there was an 8th count where he passed him out and now Houston has been eliminated instead.

Icemancometh

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119027673#Comment_119027673

I've no idea in this instance, but sometimes they do counts to see if someone can get enough votes for expenses.

Edit: sorry, I misunderstood you there. No idea.