So what do people think will be the story in one month if you had to wager your house.
I think ‘peace deal’ and cessation of hostilities but then war again son time after
more detailed theories are welcom
This. They don't give a flying **** if they flatten the entire country as long as they hold control of the gas and oil, they'd probably be happy enough with an ongoing occupation/insurgency but I don't think it's played out that way. If they had done this in 2014 when the Ukrainian army was in disarray then it might have worked. They're now having to compete with a steady supply of modern weapons.
Yeah, not to denigrate all Indian IT but no critical systems that I'm aware of are dependant on them or any specific nationality, most teams that I've worked in for quant finance systems for example, you will find it's almost like the UN, you will get every creed, race and nationality under the sun working in IT teams. The idea is to get the best from everywhere.
Unfortunately the West chose globalization and now has to accept that most of the world does not share it's values or go along with what it think is right.
For just starters India and China will be ignoring sanctions against Russia.
It doesnt need to be and it would be a good thing if that avenue was cut off.
Will Russians get to hear about it though? I would imagine that if it appears on the news at all it will be presented either as a tragic accident or as a successful attack against Ukrainian forces. To what extent is the Kremlin able to keep a lid on this?
EDIT: never mind, I just read that Moscow has accused Ukraine of carrying out the attack.
I find the idea(from other posts that you are referring to, not yours) of ukrainians having to restrain themselves in case of repracussions absolutely laughable. If someone invades your home, you have carte blanche as far as im concerned excluding murder of pows or other war crimes. They have the right to do whatever it takes and should if they are able.
Putin is not playing "4D chess" or doing anything smart. Some people look for some deeper meaning, because "oh, he is a great leader, he must know what we don't, he is so smart". I have seen and talked to politicians. Some of them are very charming and charismatic. But being smart is not a requirement for a politician, it's the ability to sell your friends and lick correct arses that is needed.
Some people say that Putin is waging war because he wants to re-unite Ukraine with Russia into some kind of pseudo-USSR. That is all fluff, in my opinion. Ukraine is a country that can be plundered and it resources divided between oligarchs close to Putin, and this is a more plausible explanation for the war. That is what "denazification" Putin is talking about -- take all the resources from Ukrainians (="nazis") and give it to Russian capitalists. This is just an imperialist war of conquest.
Obviously they have nuclear power which they could deploy, but is there any path to victory for them now short of using that, which is a massive risk for them too.
Ukrainian troops are more motivated, quite experienced, have home advantage and are going to keep receiving weaponry from abroad.
Can the Russians really defeat the Ukrainian people if their resolve to fight keeps up?
Have never been in a war zone, don't have any real knowledge of military tactics, so I don't know. But I often think of the difficulties the US had in Afghanistan, and in Ukraine the people are united behind their Government while many Afghans despised the Taliban. I also think of the North where a group as small as the IRA kept a struggle up against the British army for 25 years.
In the west I think everyone from Biden down expected this war to be over about a month ago, with a Russian puppet government installed by now. Could that still happen?
I guess Russians are atleast helping the Ukrainian farmers,not only with supplying them with armoured vehicles,but also vermin control.
I dont know which is worse,the four legged rats or the tow legged ones from Kremlin
If, as people claim, Putin is playing 4D chess, it is clear India plays 1D chess.
Here's an interview with a Russian field commander abiut their culinary situation
Excactly,and with the sanctions now,and Russia looking for help from China,means they Russia would probably end up in Chinas pocket,and offcourse China would take advantage of this vs India.
This seems to tie in with the state propaganda. "We're not actually at war and we're fully in control of everything". The way that people seem to swallow everything they are told by the Kremlin without question is certainly a sight to behold.
Yes and India are reliant on the West to provide these jobs. Its a two way street and if Modi pushes his luck he could very well have a lot more than he bargained for. That cheap Russian oil could end up being very costly indeed.
The West is reliant on cheap Indian IT labour however. Even more so than Russian gas.
Has gas to Europe been turned off yet? Have countries paid in Rubles? Bluff?
It would be a real shame if the Indian outsourcers found themselves on the wrong side of sanctions. How many jobs and from Indian standards high paying ones are reliant on the outsourcers in India? Modi could be very shortsighted with this because the West can hurt India significantly if he's not careful.
Hardly recent information. Perhaps you were unaware of earlier histories of the subject. For example, in his memoirs written 1992, the Task Force commander said:
I think the aspect of [my] book which most surprised my editors and publishers was the inescapable conclusion that, one way and another, it was a bit of a close call. There have been those who went as far as to describe Britain’s battle to recover the Falkland Islands as “A damned close run thing”, as the Duke of Wellington was moved to do after Waterloo. I don’t go quite that far - but like the late but timely arrival of Blucher’s Army, there were several critical turning points which could have gone either way. Most of them, I was glad to note at the time, turned in our favor,
lt should also be recalled that there were several entirely competent organizations which initially suspected the whole operation was doomed. In no particular order they were:
a) The United States Navy, which considered the re-capture of the Falkland Islands by British forces alone to be a military impossibility.
b) The Ministry of Defense in Whitehall, which assessed that a tolerable air situation could not be achieved and that therefore the battle could not be won.
c) The Army, which considered it to be ill-advised, for lack of a 'proper' advantage ration in land force numbers.
d) The Royal Air force, which, seeing little role for themselves on account of the vast distances, and no chance of a navy surviving in the face of an air force, was inclined to agree
e) The Secretary of State for Defence, Mr (Now Sir) John Nott, who firstly represented the views of his ministry, and possibly also since success in it would probably overturn his 1981 defense review
By that time, also combined with information coming from the Argentine side, such as Middlebrook's book in English published 1989, it was very clear that several small decisions or pieces of luck made a significant outcome in the difference (eg Argentine mechanic getting the arming wires crossed in one of their submarines resulting in dud torpedoes being fired). However, on the other hand, Napoleon said he wanted lucky generals. In reality, that means a force best able to make the most of the opportunities presented to it, which in this case, was the very well-trained British.
Surprised they aren't realising that if Russia ends up beholden to China then their main arms supplier and their regional rival will be on the same team.
Yes, but the culture was different. The western world was a far more hardship-laden, serious and a far less frivolous place. I bet they not only had more confidence in the truthfulness of their media, but that they were more justified in having it, certainly comparing to the standards of today.
Modi is buying lots of Russian oil at 35 to 45 dollars a barrel. Edit. 15 million offered at 35 and current 6 mill barrels is at a 30 dollar discount to Brent.
6 million barrels on the move already, about 3 times the last year's purchase of oil from Russia.
Modi will be looking at deepening ties to Moscow and taking full advantage. The Indians are backing Russia in all of this and that's popular on the street.
I think the assumption in the west was that the Ukraine would lose, relations would resume with Russia slowly and in a few years time it'd be half forgotten. Now the outcome is not a foregone conclusion so in the west people think there needs to be a compromise, even though Russia is 100% wrong and Ukraine 100% right. I'm not sure they are keen to give up very much, even if they were defeated militarily as a people they'd still not surrender, they'd continue to fight in some way.
I think Miriam's questioning reflects the assumption that were widely shared until very recently, basically that Russian triumph was inevitable.
Reminds me of the attack the US organized on Japan immediately after Pearl Harbour. It was totally unexpected, just as the Japanese attack had been, and was just a foretaste of what was to come down the road.
What he actually meant was, he was a Nazi fighting for Russia.
Interesting documetary regarding one of russias elite units suffering in Ukraine and how russians in general reacted to it.
Its not just a war on the battlefield,its an information war as well
The commander in his speech at the funeral of one of his fallen soldiers,said he died to protect Russia against Nazis??
Most of their military gear is Russian made, although they've started buying some US made gear in more recent years. I'd say they're definitely getting a little worried considering sanctions will result in reduced ability to provide maintenance materials for all this. I wouldn't be surprised to see Pakistan announcing another arms deal with the US in the next few months considering how awful the Russian equipment has performed.
If Modi was any use, and it appears he isn't particulary clever, he'd be looking at ways of cutting ties with the Russians.
India is already a septic tank of a country with hundreds of millions of souls living in third-world filth. I can't see that improving if they align themselves with the Russians. There must be money to be made for the mega-rich minority. Horrible world we live in.
If those Mi-24s stayed really close to the ground, as in treetop height, they could very easily have disappeared in the ground clutter that is filtered out by most modern radar systems. The Hind is quite a bit faster than most western attack helicopters and its attack profile is more reminiscent of the Sturmoviks attack aircraft of old rather than the loitering & pop-up tactics that the likes of the AH-64 are designed for. Unless you have a MANPADS on your shoulder when one of these things roars over you at treetop height, it'll likely be obscured by trees, houses or other ground clutter by the time you're ready to take a shot. It doesn't seem unlikely at all in my eyes for Ukraine to be able to pull off such an attack.
As for expanding the war, how would they do that? They already have been invaded along almost their entire northern and eastern borders, there's not much more areas where they can expand any conflict. In addition, a fuel storage site is a valid and reasonable military target, especially given its location in one of the marshalling areas for the invasion. Disrupting the enemy's supply lines is always the right thing to do.
If you go into indian news channels comment sections,you will see a wide support for Russia by Indians.
They keep forgetting that China is their Neigbour and they are part of QUAD,the asian NATO.
If China was Russia and Pakistan was Belarus,i think they would get the picture
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