I’ve watched half it so far and it’s fascinating and depressing at the same time.
A very good question posed, if Ukraine continues to repel the attack what exactly do people think is going to happen? Do they think Putin will just hold his hands up and walk away?
He could end up pummelling Ukraine Into the ground with more destructive weapons if things aren’t going Russias way, is that good for Ukraine?. It’s all good and well the west cheering on and arming the Ukrainians but it’s their country and people who are the victims in all this.
I agree with you but I fear a rolling back of the more extreme sanctions will be part of any compromise deal. If the West has to choose between principles and the economy in the long term, it will as always choose the economy. It's already doing so with oil.
But if that saves the prolongation of all the suffering then maybe it's the lesser of two evils
Greenwald was right once and people seem to believe this means he is infallible.
The reality is he is either 1. in the pocket of Putin or some associate, 2. in the process of going full Gemma, or 3. Both
It has decided to travel East, it seems. And Russia for all its resources would always be beholden to someone, somewhere if it wants to have any international trade & relations at all.
Holding back force, I said. They could pound absolutely everything that they come across, and not to minimise the devastation they've caused, they haven't flattened any city - yet. Although I do fear they will.
The Russian army numbers over a million men of which maybe 15-20% has been deployed for this conflict. It could double it's deployed force without leaving gaps elsewhere but it hasn't. They are not at the stage of throwing the kitchen sink at this yet. The Russian army is nowhere near as strong as many feared it was, but it's not as incompetent and terrible as many are trying to paint it either.
While the operation so far has had major failures, the facts remain that overall the Russians are holding the gains in territory, they are amassing yet unused force and encircling Ukrainian positions. I just cannot see them being pushed out any time soon.
The problems for Russia don't stop at 5%. Their mobilisation and logistics strategies were and are based on defending Russia, not prosecuting wars beyond their borders(unlike the USA). They rely on Russia's huge rail network which the state owns to move men and material(this is very old style, Germany did similar in WW2). Which is fine, even very effective within Russia or vassal states like Belarus, but they run into major supply problems beyond that network, as we've seen in Ukraine. That's why they have that huge road convoy seemingly stuck and very vulnerable and why we've seen looting by Russian troops and vehicles waiting for fuel(the humble jerrycan was one of the most important 'weapons' in WW2). Firepower win battles, supply lines win wars. They have the former, but they can't effectively get it to the front because of a lack of the latter.
And when they get into the cities proper it could be one helluva slog if the defenders are dug in and highly motivated. Consider the fall of Berlin in 1945. The city was a flattened wreck, the Germans were a spent force of around forty odd thousand, with about the same in kids and elderly and police etc making up the defence, facing over two million Soviets encircling the city with artillery, tanks and complete control of the air. It took them two weeks to take it and if Hitler hadn't done the decent thing and put a bullet in his head and the Germans hadn't surrendered it might have lasted another week until the bitter end. I hope it doesn't come to this and some sort of peace is agreed upon, but the defenders of Kyiv could make it a hell on earth for the invading Russians.
It seems so.
China won't be supporting Russia unless it serves Chinese interests to do so. And the Chinese have long memories. Russia are going to simply go from being economically beholden to the west to potentially being beholden to the east.
I think we can see in Ukraine what Russian culture really is. And I'd prefer if they kept it within their own borders.
Pretty horrific, bizarre angle for someone to go with...
plus I have seen the CGI in doctor who they aren't that good at it.
I hope they are not put under pressure or made to feel like they have to take it.
"the truth is that every Russian will feel guilty for decades because of the terrible and bloody decision that none of us could influence and predict."
One of his facebook posts. Again, expecting these people to come out and say "Putin is a scumbag killer" while they live and have family in Russia, is completely unfair.
Telling Russians they can't share their culture because a dictator decided to start a war, is crossing red lines in my opinion.
What anti-Putin messages did he tweet?
He said in this interview he didn't want to say anything due to his family in Russia
I am contacted by journalists now who want me to make statements. I feel very uncomfortable about this and also think that it can affect my family in Russia.
and the statements he is making are the usual "both sides" kind of cop outs.
‘I still believe Russian culture and music specifically should not be tarnished by the ongoing tragedy,’ he wrote. ‘People cannot be judged by their nationality.’
‘hatred going in all directions, in Russia and around the world.’
and when the Ukrainians looked for west protection we should've have made it unequivocally clear from the very beginning that we cannot help them and encouraged them to find terms with the russians. Because truly we cannot help them and we're not helping them...
I sympathize with the Ukrainians and the just cause they're fighting for,
we can help where we can, but i'm not ready to shoot myself in the foot over it.
On the contrary, we contributed setting up this quagmire and dragged the russians into it, at the same time we also so stupidly dragged ourselves into it with massive media investment and sanctions that are backfiring on us. It's like the plan from the very beginning was to put the russians and the europeans at each other throats and stop russian gas pumping into europe.
I agree with Mearsheimer that the US played a major role in how the events unfolded in Ukraine,
Unfortunately our politicians in the EU seem to be dedicated to execute the US policy in the region not caring about our core EU strategic and economical interests.
Right now in EU, a politician could lose elections over his stance from Ukraine, that's how moronic this whole thing has become.
perhaps things aren't really as black and white as you think they are.
I'm sorry, i really do care about the EU, but i find it very hard to trust american foreign policy after how many events they were involved in unfolded around the world.
Stolen from a screenshot on Twitter! Nice.
Food situation worse again today. Indonesia now curbing palm oil exports.
A global food crisis sparked by Russia's invasion of Ukraine escalated today as Indonesia tightened curbs on palm oil exports. The move added to a growing list of key producing countries seeking to keep vital food supplies within their borders. The conflict in Ukraine is threatening global grain production, the supply of edible oils and fertiliser exports, sending basic commodity prices rocketing and mirroring the crisis in energy markets.
Palm oil is the world's most widely used vegetable oil and is used in the manufacture of many products including biscuits, margarine, laundry detergents and chocolate. Palm oil prices have risen by more than 50% this year. Indonesia's Trade Minister Muhammad Lufti said the export curbs aimed to ensure that cooking oil prices at home remain affordable to consumers.
Yes. That is why we see Russia have drafted in a world war 2 train into the situation and other trains carrying 1950s and 1960s equipment from eastern Russia across the the western front. Coupled with Russian troops being transported in actual bin lorries....
Yet they are 'holding back' equipment. It's utter nonsense. They're holding back nothing. Their military might has been exposed for the disease ridden corruption that has left the military thread bare. Whether it's maintenance or tyres or fuel. It all seems to have had a price and many many people are taking a cut. Snip snip left right and center.
Russian might appears to only exist in the dreams of random Twitter accounts and useful fools who follow them on here.
That would work very well too!!!. In Afghanistan the present day, the landscape is littered with the rusting hulks of Russian tanks and A/V's, so they would make great long lasting road blocks. None of your cheap rusting Daihatsu rubbish; LOL.
They are big losses but they are not game changing ones. And this 5% is just the equipment they have brought in, not the equipment that they have at their disposal. The tide hasn't turned.
We need to be realistic here, as horrific as the Russians have been here, they are holding back force and still gaining ground. I still maintain, though valiant the Ukrainian effort has been, the country will fall in the next two weeks.
No pleasure in saying that, but it remains the likely outcome here.
Yes, you are probably right, which would also explain why they don't take everything they capture,,,,most they just destroy.
Their lifeless riddle corpses in their still smouldering car kinda gave the game away. Clearly BBC CGI.
@Black Noel do not post in this thread again
Fair points, I would also add it is easy for him to have an opinion and we have no way of testing it. If NATO had not expanded we might well be looking at a situation where Russia had already taken over the baltics and other areas. It isn't like we can run a controlled experiment to test his theory.
That will be all well and good if Ukraine accepts, even if they do, sanctions should not be rolled back till Putin has been tried or dead.
I haven’t seen anywhere that sanctions would be rolled back if Russia abandoned Ukraine but hopefully that won’t be the case.
Yes but that should be the sort of threat that comes as last resort. By throwing it into the ring early on, Putin has shot his bolt a bit. You can make it once and people sit up, take notice and go high alert.
Putin has reduced Russia to a vassal state of China.
Again, this is all just speculation, but Russia "may" be pivoting from it's original plan to invade Ukraine/install a puppet government, and instead focus on something achievable like secure LDNR and Crimea. If true (or vaguely true) might mean some sort of peace deal could be doable.
"What makes you think they were elderly, the BBC tell you that lie?"
I think it was the grotesque aftermath video of the inside of the car, showing the two elderly couple bloodied and deformed from having been shot up by a bloody tank, you sick scumbag.
More good news, so far these weapons have been very effective
China will be supporting Russia just as the West is supporting Ukraine. Yes, they may get good deals and yes they may have old resentments towards Russia and the way the Soviets held back Chinese development, but 'events, dear boy, events'...
China is considering buying or increasing stakes in Russian energy and commodities companies, such as gas giant Gazprom PJSC and aluminum producer United Co. Rusal International PJSC, according to people familiar with the matter.
Beijing is in talks with its state-owned firms, including China National Petroleum Corp., China Petrochemical Corp., Aluminum Corp. of China and China Minmetals Corp., on any opportunities for potential investments in Russian companies or assets, the people said. Any deal would be to bolster China’s imports as it intensifies its focus on energy and food security -- not as a show of support for Russia’s invasion in Ukraine -- the people said.
And from CNN:
Chinese retail investors are snapping up stocks with even the slightest link to trade with Russia, as they bet on closer economic ties between the two countries following unprecedented Western sanctions on Moscow. From shipping firms to port operators, shares of more than a dozen Chinese companies that have trade links with Russia, or are close to its borders, have soared in the past week, even though some of them have warned investors that their stock is overvalued.
Earlier this week, shares in Jinzhou Port, China's most northerly seaport with direct shipping routes to Russia, had shot up 94% on the Shanghai Stock Exchange since Feb. 24, when Russia invaded Ukraine. Stocks in China are allowed to rise or fall by as much as 10% in daily trading. That means the port operator's shares had risen by almost the daily limit for seven straight sessions.
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