The Omicron variant

A virus never moves in a linear fashion. If we just concentrate on cases it isnt at all like the classic one grain doubling per section on a chessboard. And neither can we say that the peak is influenced by x amount due to restrictions. Mitigation, yes, percentage unknown. Even in unvaccinated unrestricted countries a virus will reach a peak. There might be a doubling in cases at some point but it does not continue.

All i am really saying is that any equation w multiple variables is dubious. It is true for the CO2 debate as well as for Covid. Thats why projections and models need to be adjusted constantly. I hope they will at some point.

I'd imagine its because like the UK, we are on average older, fatter and probably have lower vitamin D levels than the South Africans who are in mid summer now.

Exactly, when people say mild, I think they assume a runny nose for two days or something. I need to be in and out of Ireland in a seven day window and attend a bachelor party and not infect my parents in their seventies. Everyone is telling me "ah sure it'll be mild anyway". That could mean delayed flights and work, 2 weeks in bed and an entire extended family's plans messed up. Mild could be the sickest I've ever been in my life, I've never had a cold for longer than 3 days before.

Scientists were still speculating if Delta was more severe than Alpha 2 months after it was discovered, There was some early speculation that it could be milder. It took several studies and a collation of data before they could speak with a degree of certainty on its severity.

Science takes time. We are learning more everyday, but it might be as late as January before anything conclusive comes out.

Totally agree, if anything the data is hiding an even greater reduction in CFR at this stage. Seems to be heading a in a pretty predictable trajectory in comparison to other pandemics now.

Moreover, people seem to have forgotten that most deaths occured due to auto immune disease, ie the immune system releasing cytokine storm and inflammation to get rid of the virus causing massive tissue damage. Not the virus itself. This time that main factor does not seem to be happening.

If two thirds of nearly all the population become symptomatic over the next 2 months it would be absolute carnage and not just for the health service.

Hopefully that scenario doesn't happen.

Botswanna noticed a spike of unexplained cases, asked SA to help in the sequencing and so creating a test for the new variant. That is the location events known so far.

Top 3 nationalities visiting Botswana for holidays (2014) tourism are 1, SA, 2, USA and 3 Germany.

Thankfully doesn’t seem to common. At this stage i know a huge amount of people who have had Covid and all made full recoveries including a 90 year old uncle of mine. No long Covid. I know more people who have been diagnosed with cancer and heart problems since the start of the pandemic.

To be fair, London is just that little bit ahead of the rest of the UK. The number of people in hospital in London has increased by 50% in two weeks. The number of daily admissions doubled in the same timeframe.

This is however, on the back of an infection rate which has apparently quadrupled in the same time frame, and a population that's 30% unvaccinated.

It's important not fall into absolutes here. Even if you accept the data that Omicron is milder, people will end up in hospital with it. Some people are killed by the common cold. So the presentation of data showing an increase in hospitalisations should not be interpreted as doom-mongering.

Going by London data, there may be a considerable lag time between infections increasing and hospital numbers increasing. 14 days or more. Which means any declarations have to be withheld, but in itself also suggests a milder infection; a more serious infection would show in the data much faster.

I and many others i know have been feeling like that for the last 2 years, its pure miserable living in constant gloom. Of course many will feel fucked and long covid is an easy blame.