The coming conflict over Taiwan

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118080622#Comment_118080622

At various stages over the last decade, you an Irish national with zero links to any form of extremism, could be picked up by American intelligence and sent to Guantanamo Bay to face a sham trial over the right to imprison you, and take away your rights to representation and fair due process... to be released a few years later without a word of apology and no realistic way to address the behavior of the American government. Yup. That's the last bastion of democracy and freedom. I could go on, but there's little point... and as has been already said by others, the thread is about China not America.

I'm not seeking to elevate China to any kind of position where they're exempt from criticism. haha. Their offenses are extremely well known. As for knowing Chinese people, I suppose I should have been more specific in that I understand the way they operate due to living and working in State universities for so long.

Now, as for your realist section, China is already hemmed in by US bases, and their allies. Just as the Soviet Union and modern day Russia is. This is what the US has always done, and the Soviets going in to Cuba was simply an attempt to do the same as the US were already doing... it didn't work, and most people ignore the double standards at play, where the US arming or placing nukes in neighboring countries isn't aggression, because the US is a peaceful nation, in spite of all their military adventures. Nah. China is locked up, which is one of the reasons that Taiwan is so important to them.

The fall of Taiwan wouldn't be the end of democracy in Asia. S.Korea, and Japan are the primary democracies in the region... and they're not changing that any time soon, due to the benefits of being aligned with the west. And the aspect of authoritarian governments... there's plenty to choose from since it's the favored form of government throughout central Asia and Africa.

I do believe that China will go to war.. because it has no real choice. I don't believe they're even remotely strong enough to take on the US or their Asian counterparts, but that doesn't change anything.

Loafing Oaf

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118081902#Comment_118081902

I do believe that China will go to war.. because it has no real choice.

How so? They've lived with Taiwan as a separate entity for an average human lifespan at this stage.

As De Valera said about our own seemingly perma-divided nation: "France was France without Alsace-Lorraine..."

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118080780#Comment_118080780

The CCP are not going to fall while it remains united, and it will remain united out of self-preservation for individuals concerns due to reprisals should they have to stand alone. The CCP control huge numbers in military and police, which the local population are not going to face.

Anyway, the biggest concern for most Chinese people is what would be the alternative to the CCP. They've always desired strong leadership, and their one fling with democracy ended with the creation of a nationalist government. Few Chinese people believe that democracy is any kind of answer.. and consider western media to be full of lies and propaganda. Which isn't that far from the truth, to be fair. Nobody want the chaos that civil war would bring, and few want any kind western involvement in their affairs. So... no... I don't believe that the CCP will fall. There will likely be some kind of public purge because that's a very Chinese kind of thing to pass responsibility on to others, using scapegoats. Their propaganda machine would have a field day under those circumstances, and it doesn't really matter if they were believed or not, because the alternatives are worse.

I suspect that you're right in thinking that China would close in on itself, similar to the way it was in the 1970s. They're already heading that way.. and they could revert to a more traditional economy, because most adults remember what it was like to be poor. It wouldn't be easy, and probably there would be serious violent unrest, with a lot of choice examples being made, but yeah... I wouldn't be too surprised to see most Chinese people accept such a change. And many would welcome it, because they see the modernization that has occurred as being a negative influence on young people, and the push behind the decline in morality. Westerners tend to look at the Chinese population, and judge them reacting the same as any western population would... but they've had a very different environment to grow up in, combined with the very strong influence of traditional Chinese culture.

I think a very smart thing for XI to do, would be to open up the emigration rules allowing many of those unhappy with the situation the opportunity to leave to go elsewhere... although probably they'll do the opposite, by making it even harder for people to leave.

Dunno. It'll definitely be interesting to see what happens.

fly_agaric

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118081998#Comment_118081998

Fair enough. Maybe you are right (should know far better than me) and it (CCP) is just too embedded in China for even internal anger over a failed Taiwan invasion and strong pressures on it from the outside to collapse it.

As you point out, if CCP does not collapse would assume the architects of the policy (Xi and friends if they are the ones who launch the failed war) would at least be "purged" (off to a gulag or worse).

I wasn't really thinking democracy would blossom in China when I was suggesting CCP might be in danger of losing power. Was more worrying somewhat that there could be chaos in China, and CCP might not act completely rationally and just lash out violently at others (US/allies) if the invasion has failed and it is in danger of falling from power.

On some of your points about "decay" in the West e.g.

Western democracy has been sliding downhill for decades now, and an actual war might be the only way to save it.

War doesn't save anything. A direct war between 2 superpowers (highly likely if China tries to invade Taiwan) is a nightmare scenario, even if they both "limit" themselves to start, theres a huge possibility for escalation. Think you've lost perspective here, maybe due to your own beliefs/politics (?) A case of perhaps burning down the house might help solve a mice problem (bad relativist ideas from social sciences and superficial "wokeness" that the US pushes on everyone through its cultural and media dominance).

The problems you complain of are not even what I think has done the most serious structural damage to the US and the West over the last generation or so. That would be the greed of finance/big business, its incentives which promote destructive behaviour, and how it has captured governments (esp. the US). Apart from corrupting democracy, this greed has weakened industry and science in the West while giving a rocket boost to development of China into the superpower it is today via outsourcing of all sorts of jobs/sectors to increase profit.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118083842#Comment_118083842

War doesn't save anything. A direct war between 2 superpowers (highly likely if China tries to invade Taiwan) is a nightmare scenario, even if they both "limit" themselves to start, theres a huge possibility for escalation. Think you've lost perspective here, maybe due to your own beliefs (?) A case of perhaps burning down the house might help solve a mice problem (bad relativist ideas from social sciences and superficial "wokeness" that the US pushes on everyone through its cultural and media dominance).

Nope. I haven't lost perspective. We, in the west, and other parts of the world, have had decades since WW2 to consider the consequences of world war, and the perception towards "total war" has shifted considerably. In part, due to the UN, and subsequent conflicts such as Vietnam, and other lesser conflicts, there is much more common awareness among people about the dangers of war. So, I'm not particularly worried about the escalating of a conflict between China and <insert coalition group>. There is just too much to loose and all players are aware of that. We are no longer driven by ideological movements the way the world was focused during WW2 or the cold war. Even China has given up it's pretense on being an ideological driven society, except for surface/superficial references to a movement within the CCP. There just isn't the position of non-negotiation involved anymore.

As for the extreme answer to the problems within the West, war tends to focus beliefs and weed out the dissenting voices. The US and western culture in general has become incredibly divided, and becomes more so, as each decade passes. A war would likely force such divisions to become submerged while the more important aspect of being unified to fight the threat becomes most important. It's just a thought, rather than a belief that it will change anything in Western society. I'm not sure if there is anything, at this point, that will stop that kind of decay within western societies.

The problems you complain of are not even what I think has done the most serious structural damage to the US and the West over the last generation or so. That would be the greed of finance/big business, its incentives which promote destructive behaviour, and how its captured governments (esp. the US). Apart from corrupting democracy, his greed has also weakened industry and science in the West while giving it a rocket boost in China via outsourcing of all sorts of jobs to increase profit.

Ahh well, different perspectives. The US has always been an extremely capitalist focused nation, where greed played a dominant role. The whole American dream is based off the idea of greed, and wealth. So, I'm not seeing any decline in morality or behavior with regards to greed or the approach to capitalism . That road was paved over a century ago with the first laws protecting companies in the US, including their profiteering during the War of Independence, or the Civil war, extended further into the Mexican war, and later... I'm sure you know where I'm going with this. The US has always profited from war, and have used war as a means to develop their economy, both nationally, but also for the private citizen. There's the usual talk about honesty and fairness, but it's just a propaganda reel to hide the reality of a dog eat dog culture.

In any case, we're going well off topic here.

I don't welcome a war between the US led coalition and China.. but I don't see how it can be avoided. If it's not Taiwan, it will be something else. The US is always looking for a new enemy. Iran was on their list for ages, but China is the grand prize.. and will remain so. Just as China and their military have been preparing for a war with the US for decades, knowing and wanting to show their supposed superiority. It's going to happen at some point.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118057279#Comment_118057279

The Chinese don't see it that way. Formosa has always be a province of China. It just happens to be a place where a breakaway government fled to. And in the interim period were allowed while the dust settled. Formosa/Taiwan is recognised as an independent state only by those who have an interest in attacking China, not in protecting Formosa or its people.

Taiwan's biggest trading partner is CHINA....second is Hong Kong. Do you think that Taiwanese businessmen give a damn about morons in Washington?

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118061630#Comment_118061630

You think the Taiwanese would embrace the US/UK over their ethnic brothers?

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118088488#Comment_118088488

Well yes

Not only to the Taiwanese want to stay independent from China, a majority want closer economic and political ties with the US rather than China

https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2020/05/12/in-taiwan-views-of-mainland-china-mostly-negative/

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118076170#Comment_118076170

Good lord, I really wish I hadn't watched that 😔

fly_agaric

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118088488#Comment_118088488

Lookit, no one appreciates being told what to do literally at the point of a gun (even if an "ethnic brother" is holding it), or have the threat of a new system being forced on their society that they don't really want or like hanging over them. It puts people's backs up and frightens them quite badly!

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118088486#Comment_118088486

I'd say they care more about how Chinese businesses have been treated in recent years. The golden days of mostly independent consumerism has gone from the mainland, and the CCP is heavily regulating the behavior of their companies. HK is a prime example of that being extended, and how the CCP goes back on the promises made. Alignment with the west guarantees a freedom to do business and profit. Alignment with China means the opposite.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118088488#Comment_118088488

I would say that while many Taiwanese have close links with those on the mainland, they've also lived outside of the Chinese social system, avoiding conflicts like the Cultural Revolution, while looking from the outside in, but seeing the effects on those they know. They'll know that the CCP has been returning to the older style of leadership, and the freedoms of the last 40 years have been slowly removed or diminished. I honestly don't think there will be any serious welcoming of Chinese rule, or desire to return to the fold by the Taiwanese.

TBH I suspect most people will be resigned, and simply deal with what happens, because regardless of whether it's under Taiwan or China, they have little real influence over events. Asian democracy is closer to American democracy than it is to European democracy. The wealthy have huge power to shape how democracy works there, and the average person is unlikely to feel they have any real power as a voter. So.. resignation over what happens as opposed to embracing their ethnic cousins, or actively resisting the CCP.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118088673#Comment_118088673

Ahh well,.. as for resisting the CCP, I have my doubts as to how many will actually do so.. except for the university students, or those who serve in the military. For the older generations, they have many connections with the mainland... there's regular flights going from most Chinese cities to Taiwan. I would say there's a big difference between what people say in a safe environment vs what they will do when the chips are down.

bob mcbob

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118088486#Comment_118088486

Yes but if the CCP took over Taiwan they would just f*ck things up like they have in Hong Kong.

Carrie Lam appears willing to sacrifice city’s reputation as an international business centre to please Beijing’s push for zero Covid

The number of non-mainland foreign companies is falling, with US companies dropping for a third straight year. Business representatives including the US Chamber of Commerce have voiced frustration at being unable to attract staff or make long-term decisions, and many are now pushing to restructure or relocate to Singapore, or to cities in mainland China such as Shanghai.

Last weekend the Asia Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association warned the government that its approach risked Hong Kong’s status as a global financial centre.

A survey by the US Chamber of Commerce earlier this year found more than 40% of its members were considering leaving Hong Kong, but its president, Tara Joseph, said the government was not responding to their concerns. “We’re at the point where it just feels like we’re talking to a wall,” Joseph told Bloomberg. “So we’ve stopped writing letters at this point.”

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/oct/28/hong-kong-doubles-down-on-covid-restrictions-to-fall-into-line-with-mainland-china

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118089557#Comment_118089557

Polls have consistently shown for years that the majority of people in Taiwan want to maintain independence from China. Recently polls have shown they favor political and economic ties with the US over China.

As for your comments, there's regular flights between Ireland and the UK, it doesn't mean we want to join them.

Kermit.de.frog

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=9Y18-07g39g

John Oliver had a piece on this at the weekend

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118088673#Comment_118088673

independence isn’t a majority position there yet. Both Taiwan and the PRC claim all of China, including Taiwan

as for China needing to attack now, that seems like western propaganda. in one or two generations China will win without mich effort.

Gatling

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118092815#Comment_118092815

Taken Taiwan will not be an easy task , another generation or two and Taiwan will have increased defensively and gained allies in the region , either way it's not going to be a cake walk

cagefactor

Interesting thread this.

Without any boots on the ground of a single chinese solider, China would cripple Taiwan military with targeted blanket missiles - runways, airports, fighter jets, ships etc etc. Taiwan military would be destroyed within 48 hours. Taiwan government would be forced into discussions with the CCP to stop the bloodshed and loss of life the military. What can be done then by the US ? Taiwanese military is eliminated, realistic defense is gone. China can play the 'we are not targeting citizens, just the military'.

I read something here about Vietnam, Australia, Philippines, Malaysia, India etc getting involved. That is simply delusional in my view. No nation except the US is going to get involved in a war with a nuclear power especially if that nuclear power can call in their mates in N.Korea and Russia to spice things up.

Don't think I saw mention in the thread that every war games scenario in last 10 years shows one winner in this conflict, China, Simply because they are first to attack and wipe out potential response from the other side. If Taiwan had a massive military of millions of soldiers and infrastructure then they would attack China as they also claim mainland China as part of their region.

https://news.yahoo.com/were-going-to-lose-fast-us-air-force-held-a-war-game-that-started-with-a-chinese-biological-attack-170003936.html

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118061824#Comment_118061824

The Chinese navy frequently docks in Latin America. The entirety of South America have massive trade with the PRC. If you think that they can sail 10,000 miles to Chile or Brazil, they can land on the far side of the Moon they can cut the journey time between Beijing and Berlin from weeks to mere days yet they can't cross the sea to Taiwan then you are only talking rubbish.

It's a multipolar world now. The Monroe Doctrine is dead. Aircraft carriers are as useless as a chocolate teapot as are Stealth Bombers and fighters. they can't even fly unless you deploy a hangar to keep them at a certain temperature.

China doesn't need to invade Taiwan. Why would they? They just need idiots to talk and talk and talk about things they don't understand and in the meantime what's not reported on the news continues.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118064398#Comment_118064398

Indeed!

People speak of countries and the "threat" they pose. Even if China was to send a flotilla on to the shores of Taiwan and gobble up that island....then what?

Exactly. Except it's not going to happen...and why? Because it's all a charade.

Iran is not going to "wipe Israel off the map"......not because Israel is strong but because it's a propaganda lie.

Did anybody's life change when AMERICA invaded and destroyed Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, Somalia, Chile, Haiti, Honduras, Guatamala, Panama, Cuba, El Salvador, Vietnam, Cambodia, Korea, Indonesia, The Phillipines, ??

Where were the complaints then? Yet we have crocodile tears about the Chinese sailing around their own seas and building a lighthouse on the Spratly Atoll. We have bitching in Washington because Russia aren't happy with missiles parked in Poland and Romania.

Who's the scumbag here? Or is it just...."side with the dickhead" ?

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118066115#Comment_118066115

Was not Hong Kong annexed by the British?

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118064814#Comment_118064814

Go back to your Bruce Willis movies.

Napoleon "slapped" Russia and brought them "into line" right?

As did Hitler......as are the air-conditioned tits in Washington and Whitehall right now.

Nobody gives a sh1t about America or the UK anymore.....abd would you like to know why? Because in 60 or 70 years they've shown themselves to be a bloviating bunch of useless assholes who just want to rob people.

The Brits were hammered by 500 culchies with pistols and petrolbombs. The Yanks were slowly but surely stuffed by brown people with the odd bomb and the odd rifle. At least the Brits have the honesty to say "that was such a mistake". The Americans mope at home and whine and say "Why don't they love us?"

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118088673#Comment_118088673

Is that the same as how the Crimeans wanted to stay a part of the Ukraine rather than return to Russia? Why would Taiwanese want to have a "friend" 10,000 miles away in California?

They see movies of GI's hammering the tar out of Vietnamese. They speak a different language. They go on vacation to Bali and Macau and Hong Kong Kong. They own businesses, farms, resorts, hotels, IT companies. Their trading partner is CHINA, Singapore and India and yet you are trying to say that they want to give all that up for a **** hot-dog?

Get REAL.

They see US Marines getting smashed drunk and raping girls in Okinawa or Subic Bay and then flown back to Fort Bragg. You think the Taiwanese want US "protection" from the terrible COMMIE THREAT..

If you were a Taiwanese mother would you be happy that your daughter had to walk home from school near a US Base?

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118089749#Comment_118089749

What is up with your need to take something that was said and make it into something else entirely.

I said nothing about the Taiwanese wanting to join China (if anything that post says the opposite). It's not difficult to stick to the argument that has been written, especially the context of what that argument was directed towards.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118092888#Comment_118092888

Thanks for consistently demonstrating what I wrote earlier in the thread.

You insinuated that the Taiwanese would "embrace" China over the US, according to the Taiwanese themselves that's not the case