Except someone testing positive and then getting run over by a car isn't going to show up in the ONS data that gets released on a weekly basis and only includes people where Covid is mentioned as a cause of death on the death certificate. The two sets of numbers match very closely such that the within 28 days of a positive test has been shown to be a useful way of getting numbers processed quickly such that daily stats get released.
This is for the UK (Confirmed Cases v Deaths - Aug 18, 2021 / Gordon Smith / Observable (observablehq.com)) - infer what you like, but take into consideration when restrictions were lifted and how virulent the Delta strain is...
(Blue - Cases, Red - Deaths, Green - Vaccines)
The problem with those charts is they assume we always had capacity to catch cases, which we didn't
In those peaks in winter many many cases were missed as the testing system fell apart and the deaths obviously won't be as missed because bodies are hard to miss.
Look at Oct 4th 2020 on that chart and compare to the last one Aug 2021
Is there a massive difference?
Not really
My friend's grandad died (of cancer) in the West last year and had Covid recorded on his death certificate as a cause. When it was queried, the family were told it was because he'd tested positive in hospital within 28 days before he died. He hadn't been in hospital, and they eventually had it challenged and changed, but we've no way of knowing what level of covid involvement there need to be in a person's death for it to be on their death cert. In the West of Ireland last year, at any rate, the criteria for the inclusion of covid on the death certificate was a positive test for covid in the 28 days prior to the death.
Anyway, there was also that big story in the UK media in April when it was revealed that of the ONS data showing people who died "with covid" included people who had tested positive for the Virus despite dying of something else, to the tune of 23% of the total.
You'll have to be more specific about what point you think you're making here. Is it that mRNA injections that confer an immunity to a single, highly mutable, already-mutated protein, which begins to wane after six weeks, are a miracle wonderdrug?
The last week in Aug is only partial data (half a week) so I would discount that until it rolls over to next week - also the deaths tend to be a few weeks behind the cases curve (as people don't catch covid and die on the same day).
So the October 4th cases are more likely to align with the 30 deaths than the 16 deaths, plus the curve is on the up swing, so compare that to any date in June / July...
Your point is valid re the cases, just look at the first wave...
True
Maybe the previous week then, last week in July
What was the CFR in that week vs the one in 4th October?
I'd check myself only it's blocked for me in work.
Looking at that chart I would say in the UK the vaccine rollout has assisted in keeping the Delta variant in check to date.
Comparing to a 10% vaccinated country (Bangladesh) is also interesting:
Delta is having a bigger impact than the Kent variant had, and while their vaccination numbers have been low up to now, they are accelerating very quickly.
Israel is interesting from a vaccination acceptance point of view:
As it appears that there is an uptick in vaccinations once the Delta variant showed itself to be a problem in the country?
Cases in Scotland beginning to rise again after lifting of restrictions (3.3K today versus 1.5K last Thurs). The vast majority are in the under 40 age group (2.6K today).
The cases started to rise again on 31st July but hospitalisations are still falling and death rates are also declining gradually.
My work place have asked me to prepare to go back into the office 40% of the time or 2 days a week, no mention of safety measures or rules.
How long for though if immunity is wearing off?
Presumably the office will only be 40% full of staff then, so plenty of extra space around those who are present on any particular day.
No one has any idea about immunity but with 1700 cases a day avg now and 5,000,000 people
Odds of you being one of infected is 0.034%
Actually no, they are proposing we all go in on the same two days.
What are they doing with the office space on the other days? Renting it out to other companies, or are they just looking to save money on the winter heating bills?
Seems like someone didn't think the idea through properly.
People are free to come in for the full 5 days but must come in for 2 days at least so they want everyone to be in on those particular days.
And I thought my companies return to the office strategy was somewhat flawed.
Yeah they are very insecure about us working from home. All my contact with clients has always been via email but they still insist that I go in.
Interesting antibody test programme to get underway, something we could keep an eye on.
Not a great advertisement for live events.
Cheltenham?
I used a UK company to check my spike protein antibodies after vaccination to have peace of mind I got a response.
I reckon it will grow in importance in the months and years ahead.
Apparently organisation for this was appalling, if you read the article its (Boardmasters)aimed at the 18 - 21 demographic, Latitude had 40,000 with only a hundred odd cases the difference is in the age demographic, Latitude catering for boutique festival like Body&Soul and Electric Picnic they are a much older demographic.
The largest daily case numbers in Scotland at 4323 but hospitalisations are still low 364.
Half of the cases are under 25
Schools open there last Monday
Cases been on the rise since
Makes sense though, unvaccinated kids, delta variant as contagious as chicken pox, what could happen lol 😂
Nolan in NPHET thinks cases will peak soon lol, couldn’t be more wrong
6,835 cases in Scotland today. 4 deaths.
Looks like Scotland has really upped the testing the last 10 days or so. Probably with the schools, colleges and universities going back. ICU and hospital numbers steady though considering. Without out doubt high numbers of younger people becoming cases at the moment.
Delta is chicken pox, we fucked :(
Jokes aside that's actually crazy what's happening there, similar population and vaccinated as us
What is interesting is that the biggest case numbers are not in Glasgow and Edinburgh but in the areas outside of the cities in the central belt. Also the vast majority of the cases are under 40.
If you open schools and nightclubs then delta will infect everyone who is not vaccinated or has had it before.
Irritatingly poor use of terminology in that article.
So Scotland announced that they were beyond level 0 and folks could go back to offices but the current numbers are beyond what would trigger a level 4 lockdown. Is this a weird fever dream as a result of covid?
Cases rising, deaths flat, vaccines working, life goes on.
What would you do instead?
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