Don’t understand how cases could fall so fast other than a fundamental change in testing numbers or test availability. I the kind of pattern you’d see if the UK had gone into lockdown. Certainly not a natural dynamic by the looks of things. Is there any explanation out there as to why the numbers have fallen like this?
In fairness, although Johnson likes to portray himself as a risk-taker, behind him will be experts in virology, epidemiology, mathematical modellers and so on.
Cases by specimen date will always show a substantial drop so it's always best to ignore the most recent ~7 days.
So having close to 130,000 dead was tactical?
Schools out for summer, schools out forever..
Plus they will of got a lot of data from India on how things went over there and prepared for it accordingly. Not forgetting that massive surge testing campaign and genome sequencing capability which will of stopped a massive amount of transmission before it even kicked off.
Forewarned is forearmed as they say.
I think there was sadly always going to be higher deaths in the UK due to the high-density and highly urban multicultural population. Where I think they have done well is in getting vaccines out early which, in turn, is allowing them to open up early before winter.
Schools out and the Euros are over now. The very good weather pushed people outside at pubs etc.
Clearly deaths aren't following the pattern set by cases in previous waves. This has been apparent for some time. It is still too early, I think, to call a peak in cases, but what will be interesting will be the lag between the peak in cases and the peak in deaths. Are we merely seeing a delay of what will turn out to be a high peak in deaths or will the peak in deaths be much lower but not delayed?
There's still fines afaia. Almost certain I saw it on posters along the Jubilee line earlier. I'll keep an eye out again later.
A good few again not wearing masks on the train this evening.
This is definitely making me feel like those bloody curtain twitchers from lockdown 1.
The aged 60+ still only account for ~5% of cases, and climbing very slowly, so once that rate stays disconnected to the under 60 group, I can't see deaths being high peak. The issues with previous waves was the younger groups got infected and it spread into the 60+ groups and then deaths occurred.
This time the vaccines are making that spread extremely slow and once it's in the 60+ group and as they mainly mingle with 60+ people, again the vaccinations curtail the spread among them.
If the UK was so wonderfully prepared and forewarned, why did Boris Johnson not put India on the red list when Pakistan and Bangladesh were placed on the red list on April 9th.
Why did he wait until April 23rd to do it instead thereby allowing the delta variant an additional two weeks to enter the country at the very height of the outbreak in India.
Maybe Johnson did it for the fun of it? After all Dominic Cummings claims that Boris Johnson wanted to see the bodies piled high.
Don't know about public transport out here in the regions, but it's less of an issue anyway outside of London. Mask wearing around the local area and shops has dropped off a bit, but still plenty of people wearing them and the non wearers are still in the minority.
Very promising case numbers, but the testing looks dodgy
Not sure... but India had the same thing. Even though numbers are likely higher than officially reported, they dropped quickly once they'd reached their peak. My own theory is that the virus "gets" everyone that is easy to get. Similar to our own January peak, and perhaps thats why our Delta spike isn't too bad so far. Every country inevitably must end up with a short-lived spike of some sort.
Going by what's happening here, the chances are there'll be an increase in cases alright but largely mild or even asymptomatic. The UK govt. are aware of this and will be able to cope but unfortunately our crowd will see a case as instant death and every hospitalisation as a COVID hospitalisation.
It's really sad to be honest!
freinds of mine there never mentioned anything about this, might only be in some places
Haven't noticed anything with pubs or restaurants, but the local Sainsbury's has had empty shelves for the last week. The only delivery that came in for today was some fresh food so still loads of gaps in the shelves. Not sure of the reasons.
Was in morrisons yesterday and the only noticeable shortage for me was ice cream and that's understandable in this weather.
Yep, could be region specific as a result of a depot being hit, or perhaps some retailers are more impacted than others. I have only been to that supermarket so can't extrapolate more than that.
I had noticed that in a local Waitrose. But I wasn't looking for much and they had anything I needed.
Same thing again this morning. Only one wearing a mask in a café.
It's getting fairly close to being more than anecdotal from me.
Oxford Street is my next port of call. I'm wagering I'll be on my tobler wearing a mask.
1000 less cases in Scotland today compared to last Saturday. Their remarkable decrease continues. Looking like they could drop below 1000 at some stage in the next week.
If this works, it will show that there is a way out without going full dystopian
Loads of mask wearing in UniQlo. Signs up in London Bridge station stating that masks must be worn on TfL services ie. Those with the -o- symbol, thus not mandatory on Southeastern or Southern services. Most on the train wearing them though.
Thus concludes my updates. Time to enjoy some indoor pints and the Lions. :)
It's getting bad,you're starting to use Cockney rhyming slang! :D
If what works? A drop in cases would have little or nothing to do with the reduction or removal of restrictions has resulted in well over half a million cases in the last two weeks, progress towards herd immunity has a lot more to do with vaccinations which topped out at half a million people per day. There is however a marked increase in deaths resulting from the recent policy which can hardly be considered "working". Most of Europe is keeping a handle on cases without going full dystopian.
Cases falling slowly
I wouldn't even call it slow! Compared to last Saturday that's a big drop. They're coming off a cliff when we were told they should be sky rocketing. I hope it continues because this could be the way out.
They haven't changed their reporting have they?
![Photo of [Deleted User]](https://w0.vanillicon.com/v2/07abd39dc4f0afde3c391afc78cc920e.svg)
