After the scenes during the Euros I doubt the full reopening will make a difference.
Hopefully cases continue to fall or not rise too much. There will be some serious fatality numbers coming in the next couple of weeks you have to think.
I guess it depends on your definition of serious numbers, my guess is deaths from Covid will be around the 100 mark in 2 weeks. Any death is sad for those left behind. What is not widely known though is the total death rate (from all causes) is lower than average in the UK at the moment. Lots of reasons for this not least Covid bringing deaths forward to earlier in the pandemic.
It will be double that i think. Hopefully i am wrong.
What makes you say that?
Because deaths lag about a month or so. 1 month ago cases, hospital admissions and deaths were 33% to what they are now.So i would expect deaths to be at least 50% more in the coming weeks than today.
so not (and I quote) serious fatality numbers then
Not in the big scale of things but maybe to others it will be quite serious.
I just think that if that is bad as deaths get (and I agree with you on the numbers), the removal of most formal restrictions will have been a great success, and the gamble will have paid off.
It's strange really, now i don't think they are gambling. I just think they have a very good understanding of what is going on and how things may go. By that, i mean the people behind the scenes and not those in front of it.
cant wait to go to England next week and actually feel like you are back to complete normal, we;re a laughing stock in this dump
50% more than today would be around 110 which is a little above my estimate. However if as you say we had 33% of the cases a month ago then we are looking more like 3 times as many in a month so 220 - again in round numbers. From what I’ve heard Delta hits a bit harder and quicker than the original variant so interval may well be shorter than a month so perhaps somewhere between the two. Still far from the worst case scenario the doom-mongers predicted.
Last two peaks in the uk, deaths lagged cases by 14 and 12 days
Is our national self esteem so low that we are in constant fear of being laughed at, when in reality it’s in people’s imaginations?
That is a very warped way of looking at it. If the rest of Europe get through the next few weeks with lower death rates than the UK, without putting health services under unnecessary pressure during what should be their quietest period in two years (start of winter 19/20 to end of winter 21/22), without under-stocked supermarkets and every sector getting hit by unexpected absenteeism, and without huge numbers of people expected to go back to April 20 type restrictions due to having to isolate despite "Freedom Day", I'm not sure the UK approach could be considered "a great success".
Remember, most of Europe has managed to keep a handle on things this summer without going full Tony Holohan, they have indoor dining etc. which some seem to think is the preserve of the UK.
Friends there at the moment are reporting that supermarket shelves are empty and many restaurants and pubs closing due to staff isolating.
Things were much better in early June.
Wheres this? Because I'm not seeing any of that.
Likewise, must be very localised these empty shelves and places shutting down. Seeing some reports on national news with company CEO's making statements about impending disaster if politicians don't give them exemptions, but other than that nothing much to worry about in the real world.
I Agree-only empty shelves I'm seeing is bottled water due to the heatwave!
I went out and bought 64 rolls of toilet roll last night, no empty shelves either!
No ice cream or ice cubes in mine 10 minutes ago. Not surprised like
Pfizer antibodies
Cases down in Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland today compared to last week, again.
Latitude Festival kicked of in England today, I think its 30,000 capacity, it will be interesting to see what results come from this as it could have a baring on Electric Picnic. Someone posted on the Picnic thread that they were at Latitude, they upped a few pics which has me pining for a festival.
Falling quickly now, 30% down compared to same day last week! Wouldn't be a fan of Boris Johnson, and think they've taken a risky approach but it's great to see fewer cases, and therefore fewer deaths. Hope it keeps falling next week.
Outside of the Underground, mask wearing has all but disappeared.
Every bar and shop I have been in I have had it on and I'm the only one on each occasion. It's weird. Taking some getting used to.
As I type there are 3 people across from me on an Overground train not wearing masks and this is despite it still being mandatory on all TfL services.
It is strange like, i have put it on the last few days but i think i will give it a go not putting it on this weekend. Must admit never seen an older person without one yet, fair play to them and nothing against them at all if they do carry on with it.
I think I read somwhere that although masks are still mandatory on TfL, there are no longer any fines. They can only ask you to put on a mask or to leave.
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