robinph wrote: » The last few pages are exactly why they came up with the Alpha, Beta... variant names rather than sticking with geographical identification. People use the geographical terms to blame different locations they want to have a dig at and try and blame a country for something they had zero control over. Whichever variant could have emerged in absolutely any location and nobody has any control over that. There is things you can do to prevent it gaining entry to your country, for which Johnson is due criticism for Delta. But absolutely nothing that anyone could do to prevent Alpha or Delta existing wherever it was that they happened to first emerge and then be detected.
Peregrinus wrote: » I think the messaging around this is very important. It's one thing to say "We're removing the legal prohibitions - you now need to take responsiblity for your own behaviour, and think carefully about the impact on others of what you do, and what you can do to minimise the risk to them". It's quite another to say "We're removing the legal prohibitions - you can all party like it's New Year's Eve to celebrate your liberation from medico-fascism!" From this point of view the language of "Freedom Day!" is most unfortunate. It frames pandemic control measures primarily as a constraint that burdens people, not as a protection that benefits them, and that's precisely the opposite of the frame of mind you want them to be in. Letting people be responsible for their own decisions about this does really depend on people being, well, responsible in the decisions they make.
HalfAndHalf wrote: » Like your post ‘the Alpha variant originated in the U.K. spin that!’ And then argued when provided with the facts that nobody has determined where it originates. Instead of praising the countries that bother to isolate new variants and share the news worldwide your just interested in being able point score against the U.K. it’s embarrassing. There’s a new variant been found in Peru, will you bash them too? Flip like the weather! LOL!
VinLieger wrote: » Aww im sad to see you didn't take that break, also I thought you said you were done with me? Again if you have evidence showing it didn't originate in the UK id love to see it but again most agree it probably did. I don't see why you think i'm trying to bash the UK here i'm just stating a fact and pointing out how your original post that had a problem with someone claiming that was a bit petty. Much like Delta has been overwhelmingly agreed upon to have originated in India. Would you have as much of a problem with me making that claim? I dont see anywhere I was trying to point score before you claimed I was for some reason jealous of the UK which is in itself a pretty pathetic way to score points. Again id suggest getting over yourself and taking a break it might do you some good.
HalfAndHalf wrote: » As I say, you seem to be against countries who go to the effort of isolating variants to help fight them.
HalfAndHalf wrote: » You ask for facts yet are happy to believe something when none exist.
igCorcaigh wrote: » I guess the idea is that allowing the virus to thrive in a half vaccinated population will increase the selective pressure on any novel vaccine-resistant virus. That selection pressure would be far less if either very few people were vaccinated, or very few unvaccinated. (Hope that makes sense!)
VinLieger wrote: » Im really not, ive been pretty critical of the Irish government throughout all this if it makes you happier. No I accept scientific consensus as being the best and most accurate answer in the absence of complete 100% verifiable evidence.
HalfAndHalf wrote: » Where is this scientific consensus that just because a country identifies a variant it’s scientifically conceded that it originated there? I think you’re confused.
is_that_so wrote: » It gets uploaded into a whopping database of over 1m genomes so there's no problem matching them. They generally say where a genome or variant was first reported so that's the country identification for you. Our first versions were identified in Austria I believe, midlands UK too.
HalfAndHalf wrote: » You can’t prove a negative, feel free to provide evidence that it did though. Again, just because something was first identified somewhere (in this case India) it doesn’t mean it originated there. There’s no evidence to say that it did. As I say, you seem to be against countries who go to the effort of isolating variants to help fight them. You ask for facts yet are happy to believe something when none exist. If you can’t accept how your posts come across that’s on you.
Aegir wrote: » It does to an extent, but surely it would follow that the more pressure applied by vaccines, the more chance there is of a super variant that wipes us all out. We will never get 100% of people vaccinated, so will the few percent that aren’t basically become super bio weapon?
HalfAndHalf wrote: » Variants that are isolated by that country and then published are uploaded into a DB maybe, but that doesn’t mean that’s where it originated, travel has been open throughout the pandemic for example. Case in point the ‘Kent’ virus, the landbridge Mecca of Europe as a prime example.
TonyMaloney wrote: » They know the exact person the alpha variant originated in in Kent.
is_that_so wrote: » It's the first time it was reported but there's a fairly good chance that it did in the majority of cases.
HalfAndHalf wrote: » They know the exact person who first presented symptoms and went to be tested with that variant, could have been any amount of asymptomatic carriers or symptomatic passers through that brought it in. Therein lays the issue with pointing at a location as ground zero.
[Deleted User] wrote: » Not sure what Boris and the UK gov are playing at really. Hospitalisations hit 400 today, they'll be easily at 1000+ by the end of the month, if I worked for the NHS I'd be handing in my notice. Putting them through another wave of sh*t, when a small bit more patience is required.
Aegir wrote: » At the peak of the last wave, there were over 4000 hospitalizations per day. During the winter, there are likely to be 1000 flu patients admitted per day.
[Deleted User] wrote: » Well that's just not true. Hospital admissions for flu in the UK during winter typically range from 200-1,000 per week. 1,000 a day is unheard of for flu. I'm not saying 1,000 covid admissions a day is not manageable, but there is no guarantee you can maintain it at a steady level. UK is basically going back to the original herd immunity plan, the intent now is to let it rip, hoping vaccine coverage is enough for the NHS to cope.
gozunda wrote: » In December countries all over the world closed off their borders to the UK. Looks like many will have to do that again. Not a fan of the Guardian but it tells how that came to pass ...https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/22/worlds-media-ask-how-it-went-so-wrong-for-plague-island-britain-covid Plague Island indeed.
S.M.B. wrote: » I'm confused. How has mass testing broken the link between transmission and deaths?
brickster69 wrote: » Have you noticed what the UK has done over the last few months ? A huge testing campaign backed up by the worlds most advanced Genome sequencing industry. This has what has broke the link between transmission and deaths. Not just opening testing stations for those with symptoms but actively testing those without symptoms. Catching them and isolating them while the rest of Europe backed off on testing thinking it was all over. Unfortunately the countries who never bothered carrying on a mass testing program will find they may not of broken that link at all.Time will tell but in 4 months we will see who did things right.
Tim Spector calls the plateau, expects long tail due to loosening restrictions.
Fairly realistic assessment of the situation.
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