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The Delta variant

amandstu

How might this play out?

Apparently cases in England may be doubling every 4.5 days and resultant hospitalizations are said to be possibly between 2 and 3 times more likely that with the Alpha variant.

Only 1% prevalence here at the moment seemingly.

Back of envelope modeling in my sitting room is not reassuring and I am not near to getting my second AstraZeneca jab yet( so 30% protected against symptomatic disease?)

EDIT: Have been corrected in this thread that parts of England (not England as a whole) had cases doubling every 4.5 days

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stephenjmcd

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Any bit of research at all can show you it's flawed.

https://twitter.com/dvir_a/status/1412426715050172420?s=20

Ah I wouldn't waste your time. It'll be like trying to explain the South African study all over again, small sample and woeful data. PHE & Canadian reports much more better prepared, conducted over longer time frame therefore better data

https://twitter.com/_lewisy/status/1412428720107933701?s=19

stephenjmcd

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Some lad on twitter like yourself does'nt like the study either.

Apologies.

Great rebuttal :pac::pac:

You know you can do your own research without condescending replies ? It is a discussion forum after all and holes are being poked in the Israeli study, quite large holes. You can either look at the data and see for yourself how flawed it is or make smart comments, up to you

[Deleted User]

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Ah I wouldn't waste your time. It'll be like trying to explain the South African study all over again, small sample and woeful data. PHE & Canadian reports much more better prepared, conducted over longer time frame therefore better data

https://twitter.com/_lewisy/status/1412428720107933701?s=19

Difference is SA variant never took off globally like Delta.

Time will tell with further studies.

I would ignore the twitter warriors.

Nobody is saying vaccines are not massively protective.

All vaccines approved by EMA are effective against serious illness with this variant.

They were not designed to stop infection and transmission, but against severe disease.

stephenjmcd

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Difference is SA variant never took off globally like Delta.

Time will tell with further studies.

I would ignore the twitter warriors.

Nobody is saying vaccines are not massively protective.

All vaccines approved by EMA are effective against serious illness with this variant.

They were not designed to stop infection and transmission, but against severe disease.

I'm not sure why you need to bold statements, it's all well known at this stage, this is all probably more suited to the vaccine thread anyway so I'll leave it at that, you either want to look at the data used or not, in this case not. Bottom line the PHE & Canadian studies are much more in depth & overall more accurate based on data used and continual follow up in further reports, PHE more so though.

[Deleted User]

stephenjmcd wrote: »

I'm not sure why you need to bold statements, it's all well known at this stage, this is all probably more suited to the vaccine thread anyway so I'll leave it at that, you either want to look at the data used or not, in this case not. Bottom line the PHE & Canadian studies are much more in depth & overall more accurate based on data used and continual follow up in further reports.

Cases of around 400 a day in israel from a low of a handful per day only recently.

Current R rate of 1.5.

Israel government warning of 1,000 cases a day in the coming weeks.

You would think if Pfzier stopped around 90% of delta infections that it could keep R below 1?

Maybe Isreal government are following the current data and recent studies, rather than a few cranks on twitter doing "their own research".

I did'nt bold anything, I hope you approve.

[Deleted User]

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Cases of around 400 a day in israel from a low of a handful per day only recently.

Current R rate of 1.5.

Israel government warning of 1,000 cases a day in the coming weeks.

You would think if Pfzier stopped around 90% of delta infections that it could keep R below 1?

Maybe Isreal government are following the current data and recent studies, rather than a few cranks on twitter doing "their own research".

I did'nt bold anything, I hope you approve.

What % of the Israeli population are unvaccinated?

[Deleted User]

Deleted User wrote: »

What % of the Israeli population are unvaccinated?

Most vaccinated country on the globe.

Well over 80% of adults vaccinated.

They were vaccinating teenagers in March.

[Deleted User]

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Most vaccinated country on the globe.

Well over 80% of adults.

They were vaccinating teenagers in March.

40% of the population are not fully vaccinated. Large sections of the community have poor uptake - orthodox and Israeli Arabs.

[Deleted User]

Deleted User wrote: »

40% of the population are not fully vaccinated. Large sections of the community have poor uptake - orthodox and Israeli Arabs.

Source?

Most vaccinated country in the world.

If they cant get herd immunity, nobody can.

Danzy

Woody79 wrote: »

Source?

Most vaccinated country in the world.

If they cant get herd immunity, nobody can.

There is an awful lot not done in Israel, it is one of the world leaders but not done is still not done.

It looks like it spreads so quickly that it might burn out even quicker.

The pool of possible infections is shrinking rapidly.

[Deleted User]

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Source?

Most vaccinated country in the world.

If they cant get herd immunity, nobody can.

Flatlined for 3 months. Starting to get going again, but on current trajectory we would overtake them by next month
https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations

Lumen

Woody79 wrote: »

Source?

Most vaccinated country in the world.

If they cant get herd immunity, nobody can.

https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2021-06-18..latest&pickerSort=desc&pickerMetric=total_vaccinations_per_hundred&Metric=People+vaccinated+%28by+dose%29&Interval=7-day+rolling+average&Relative+to+Population=true&Align+outbreaks=false&country=OWID_CYN~ISR

[Deleted User]

Danzy wrote: »

There is an awful lot not done in Israel, it is one of the world leaders but not done is still not done.

It looks like it spreads so quickly that it might burn out even quicker.

The pool of possible infections is shrinking rapidly.

I have heard that phrase countless times in last 15 months.

Stheno

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Source?

Most vaccinated country in the world.

If they cant get herd immunity, nobody can.

56% of the Israeli population are fully vaccinated

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.haaretz.com/amp/israel-news/israel-vaccine-data-how-many-have-already-been-inoculated-for-covid-1.9626604

TonyMaloney

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Any bit of research at all can show you it's flawed.

https://twitter.com/dvir_a/status/1412426715050172420?s=20

To be honest I don't really understand all of that criticism. It might well be valid, but it's pretty technical.

The criticism of the Canadian report is fairly easy to understand though. It's from data that ends in May. They identified 990 delta cases, but the vast majority are from the younger unvaccinated cohort.

I'm not aware of any criticism of the UK report. We should probably reference that for now. They certainly have plenty of vaccinations and delta cases to work with.

[Deleted User]

TonyMaloney wrote: »

To be honest I don't really understand all of that criticism. It might well be valid, but it's pretty technical.

The criticism of the Canadian report is fairly easy to understand though. It's from data that ends in May. They identified 990 delta cases, but the vast majority are from the younger unvaccinated cohort.

I'm not aware of any criticism of the UK report. We should probably reference that for now. They certainly have plenty of vaccinations and delta cases to work with.

The problem with all the vaccinated v unvaccinated delta debate is that the unvaccinated population will skew young and the vaccinated old meaning raw comparisons are inherently flawed. Only way to accurately assess is a new clinical trail however is possibly, or should I say definitely, unethical to give a representative sample of the population a placebo where there is a proven effective vaccine available

bodhrandude

Does this variant have anything to do with the Blues.

Micky 32

A bit of positivity coming from Leo:

The Delta wave is happening but it will be different to other waves and that’s because of the vaccination programme.

“A thousand cases a day, even 2,000 cases a day in a few weeks’ time is not the same as a thousand cases a day back in January.

"That’s because the link between the cases of infections and hospitalisations and deaths – and that’s what really matters – is considerably weakened, not broken.
“Bear in mind if the number of people in ICU trebled, it would still be less than 50 people in ICU, and we were easing restrictions when there were 50 people in ICU.

“If the number of people in hospitals quadrupled, it’s still about 200 people in hospital in a system with 11,000 beds."

Varadkar said we need to make sure we understand that this Delta wave is going to be different.

"It’s a wave that is happening but is one we can withstand and that is what we intend to do through vaccination “

The Tanáiste also said people can expect to see daily case numbers rise dramatically over the next few weeks but added that it will not be the same as previous waves.

“Get the vaccine and make sure you get the second dose,” he advised.

“This wave is one we can weather through vaccinations.”

[Deleted User]

Micky 32 wrote: »

A bit of positivity coming from Leo:

The Delta wave is happening but it will be different to other waves and that’s because of the vaccination programme.

“A thousand cases a day, even 2,000 cases a day in a few weeks’ time is not the same as a thousand cases a day back in January.

"That’s because the link between the cases of infections and hospitalisations and deaths – and that’s what really matters – is considerably weakened, not broken.
“Bear in mind if the number of people in ICU trebled, it would still be less than 50 people in ICU, and we were easing restrictions when there were 50 people in ICU.

“If the number of people in hospitals quadrupled, it’s still about 200 people in hospital in a system with 11,000 beds."

Varadkar said we need to make sure we understand that this Delta wave is going to be different.

"It’s a wave that is happening but is one we can withstand and that is what we intend to do through vaccination “

The Tanáiste also said people can expect to see daily case numbers rise dramatically over the next few weeks but added that it will not be the same as previous waves.

“Get the vaccine and make sure you get the second dose,” he advised.

“This wave is one we can weather through vaccinations.”

He just talks alot without much thought.

Micky 32

Woody79 wrote: »

He just talks alot without much thought.

Quite possibly, but in this case he’s right.

TefalBrain

Micky 32 wrote: »

Quite possibly, but in this case he’s right.

He'll be saying the opposite tomorrow. He's all about the self.

amandstu

bodhrandude wrote: »

Does this variant have anything to do with the Blues.

You are just trying to muddy the waters.

https://youtu.be/kGUxRvMyoo0

PowerToWait

Micky 32 wrote: »

Quite possibly, but in this case he’s right.

He is aligning himself with what you believe to be true. That doesn’t mean he’s right.

If he truly believes it why isn’t he opening up indoor pubs and restaurants?

I hope he is right. But he’s full of shîte and will say whatever gets him good numbers in the polls. The snake.

Micky 32

PowerToWait wrote: »

He is aligning himself with what you believe to be true. That doesn’t mean he’s right.

No. I think he’s right because it echoes what i’m thinking , going by my own research and evidence and actual experts ( not boards experts) about the vaccines.

I know Varadkar is a complete spoofer. I’m well aware of that.

PowerToWait

Micky 32 wrote: »

No. I think he’s right because it echoes what i’m thinking , going by my own research and evidence and actual experts ( not boards experts) about the vaccines.

I know Varadkar is a complete spoofer. I’m well aware of that.

I do hope you are correct. I don’t think Vradkar truly believes everything will be hunky dory somehow. A bit of optimism is welcome all the same.

It’s such a complex situation, with so many interdependent variables, that caution is definitely my own personal favoured approach.

I don’t want to go back to where we were 8 weeks ago. Which I can see happening in UK, Spain, Portugal.

jayp2020

wadacrack wrote: »

Look what happened in India with this variant.

Have you any concept of the overpopulation, extreme poverty and abysmal hygiene in India. It is not comparable. It's like another planet and that's before we even consider vaccination rates.

brickster69

https://boards.ie/discussion/comment/117605125#Comment_117605125

Are you sure about that ? Just 9 days and they up with the UK, yet 4 weeks behind. Probably be in full lock down by then.

https://twitter.com/hoterminus/status/1415606579844599808

Just to give a bit of context to the Netherlands.

If they were testing at the same rate as the UK they would of reported 170,000 Covid cases.If this was adjusted for population, the Netherlands would have reported 656,000 cases yesterday.

[Deleted User]

https://boards.ie/discussion/comment/117614116#Comment_117614116

Yes, Netherlands on the 6th July looked nothing like Spain and Portugal 2 to 3 weeks earlier

And testing rate=/= number of cases. Countries with a low testing rate have a higher positive rate because they are testing the most likely positive cases. If they increase the testing rate, the detection rate will go up, but the positive rate will also fall dramatically

brickster69

https://boards.ie/discussion/comment/117614366#Comment_117614366

Absolute rubbish. How many tests are Ireland doing / day ?

Kermit.de.frog

https://boards.ie/discussion/comment/117610884#Comment_117610884

Going back to somewhere close to where we where seems almost inevitable. Whether the most restrictive counter-measures can be avoided is the question that's open.

I think at some point in August, if not before then, decisions will once again need to be made.

The UK will be jumping first. They have been incredibly foolish and I actually think this time it will finish Johnson because he has led his population up the hill.