nav[aria-label="Primary Navigation"] { padding: 0; & ul { list-style: none; width: 100%; display: flex; flex-direction: row; justify-content: start; align-items: start; gap: 30px; padding: 0; & li { margin: 0; } & ul li { list-style: none; } } }

Child Item

The Delta variant

amandstu

How might this play out?

Apparently cases in England may be doubling every 4.5 days and resultant hospitalizations are said to be possibly between 2 and 3 times more likely that with the Alpha variant.

Only 1% prevalence here at the moment seemingly.

Back of envelope modeling in my sitting room is not reassuring and I am not near to getting my second AstraZeneca jab yet( so 30% protected against symptomatic disease?)

EDIT: Have been corrected in this thread that parts of England (not England as a whole) had cases doubling every 4.5 days

Find more posts tagged with

Quick Links

Comments

brickster69

wadacrack wrote: »

I'd be fearful of relatively harsh restrictions being brought back here in October or so. I don't think the public could handle it again.

On the other hand vaccination rates likely to be very high by then, hopefully it will be enough

At least you have a good guinea pig

wadacrack

brickster69 wrote: »

https://twitter.com/James1uk/status/1412429344534843397

I'd be fearful of relatively harsh restrictions being brought back here in October or so. I don't think the public could handle it again.

On the other hand vaccination rates likely to be very high by then, hopefully it will be enough

OwenM

TonyMaloney wrote: »

Unfortunately there's already one hospital under considerable strain.

As double vaxxed staff will often get sick again, many hospitals are in for some challenging staffing issues again I guess.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-highlands-islands-57735232.amp

If that is going to happen in any significant number then why bother with vaccines at all?

Have you way to quantify 'often'?

Or is it just procedural self isolation that might cause shortages of staff - because it seems they are dumping that now: https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-57733276

is_that_so

Think this is relevant here.
"As of the end of Monday, 86.2% of British adults had received one dose of a coronavirus vaccination and 64.3% had received two doses."

We are at 50% and 70% respectively and are aiming for about 67% and 82% for the end of this month.

brickster69

Boggles wrote: »

They will comfortably hit Javid's prediction of 50k per day by Monday week.

I thought cases don't matter anymore ?

brickster69

https://twitter.com/James1uk/status/1412429344534843397

Boggles

The UK has recorded 28,773 new coronavirus cases, according to the latest update to the government’s Covid dashboard. That is the highest daily total on this measure since the end of January (29,079 cases on 29 January). And the total number of new cases over the past seven days is up 49% on the total for the previous week

They will comfortably hit Javid's prediction of 50k per day by Monday week.

TonyMaloney

ACitizenErased wrote: »

"Having plateaued for around three days, the seven-day average has dropped for two days running, and now stands at 3,216. "

Unfortunately there's already one hospital under considerable strain.

As double vaxxed staff will often get sick again, many hospitals are in for some challenging staffing issues again I guess.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-highlands-islands-57735232.amp

ACitizenErased

More on Scotland and some parts of England, there is some plateauing/reductions happening. Hopefully this is sustained.
E5nLW_GWUAUkmBW?format=jpg&name=900x900

[Deleted User]

ACitizenErased wrote: »

"Having plateaued for around three days, the seven-day average has dropped for two days running, and now stands at 3,216. "

Hopefully the "delta surge" was at least partially a function of pockets of poor vaccine uptake

[Deleted User]

With all vaccines 60 odd per cent stopping delta infection its going to be difficult to keep r rate below 1. Not sure how this is going to play out.I reckon there will still be many deaths yet in europe. herd immunity is not happening.

ACitizenErased

"Having plateaued for around three days, the seven-day average has dropped for two days running, and now stands at 3,216. "

ACitizenErased

800 less cases in Scotland today compared with last Tuesday.

https://twitter.com/UKCovid19Stats/status/1412419323461881874?s=20

[Deleted User]

brickster69 wrote: »

Holland starting a bit like Spain & Portugal 2/3 weeks ago.

https://twitter.com/equibotanica/status/1412284788334108672

Doesn't really look like Spain and Portugal 2/3 weeks ago.

brickster69

Holland starting a bit like Spain & Portugal 2/3 weeks ago.

https://twitter.com/equibotanica/status/1412284788334108672

cheezums

Biscuitus wrote: »

The problem is it could mutate into a variant that the current vaccines are ineffective against which would completely undo all the progress made so far sending is back into summer 2020.

And an asteroid could hit us tomorrow. Why worry about this ****? What good does it achieve?

TonyMaloney

MerlinSouthDub wrote: »

The rate of hospitalisation will fall as more people get vaccinated, and as the age of those infected goes down even further.

Using the hospitalisation rate from previous waves will be miles off the right answer.

I know

[Deleted User]

Micky 32 wrote: »

For some reason certain people forget that we now have vaccines and still think it’s 2020. It strengthens my belief some don’t want this ending. In the next couple of months millions more will be in arms. The landscape is rapidly changing for the good.

For those people who believe it's still 2020 - what is the endgame for you? Permanent lockdowns? People dying because they don't get diagnosed in time? Millions on 20 year waiting lists until they become terminally ill? The complete collapse of whole sections of the economy? We are rapidly getting there already. At some point a call would have to be made to end this.

Fortunately I see great evidence that the vaccines will work to a degree to allow proper reopening of society.

Micky 32

MerlinSouthDub wrote: »

The rate of hospitalisation will fall as more people get vaccinated, and as the age of those infected goes down even further.

Using the hospitalisation rate from previous waves will be miles off the right answer.

For some reason certain people forget that we now have vaccines and still think it’s 2020. It strengthens my belief some don’t want this ending. In the next couple of months millions more will be in arms. The landscape is rapidly changing for the good.

[Deleted User]

Lumen wrote: »

I'm not necessarily disagreeing with your central thesis, but it's (probably unintentionally) misleading that you've used different end dates for the graphs due to the availability of data.

For instance, the cases data is a week fresher than the positivity rate data.

True, but the trend was already significantly very much up on the cases by the 30th of June. Time will tell. My suspicion is that cases will hit a vaccine and prior infection immunity wall soon in the UK and start trending downwards again. We shall see what happens. I have no good explanation for the Indian data - unless it's just they only collect small amounts of it.

One thing's for sure - if we get another wave like the Christmas one we are all screwed and the vaccines are ineffective. Not what I believe is going to happen, but that's what the data would tell us.

FileNotFound

TonyMaloney wrote: »

As ever, you can predict hospitalisations by looking at cases.

Why on earth would we stop now?

What model would you use if you feel we should discount data from pre Delta?

Info on cases vs. hospitalisation from UK (many differences as you have highlighted) show risk of hospitalisation extremely low versus previous variants.

Actually curious. I do feel we should be driven by hospital numbers and of course cases translate but the best info we have (in my opinion) right now shows quite a low risk (relative to covid prior).

Ar we at 1 in 1000 now? or 1 in 3000 I wonder. Or is it 1 in 100.

Would be great to see NPHET giving some good stats on this.

MerlinSouthDub

TonyMaloney wrote: »

As ever, you can predict hospitalisations by looking at cases.

Why on earth would we stop now?

The rate of hospitalisation will fall as more people get vaccinated, and as the age of those infected goes down even further.

Using the hospitalisation rate from previous waves will be miles off the right answer.

Biscuitus

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Highly, highly unlikely. Any mutation that impacts the spike protein, which the vaccines target, would cause the virus to lose it's advantage over other viruses and SARS-COVI-2 would descend into nothingness.

Good to know. Thanks for the explanation.

Lumen

Deleted User wrote: »

The UK data actually looks very good.

I'm not necessarily disagreeing with your central thesis, but it's (probably unintentionally) misleading that you've used different end dates for the graphs due to the availability of data.

For instance, the cases data is a week fresher than the positivity rate data.

PintOfView

Sobit1964 wrote: »

I think the term might be risk reduction - as I recall [please correct this], AZ was 1.1%, PZ 0.8%, MD 0.7% - not numbers that we ever hear anything about.

I hope to be fully debunked on this, as it seemed unbelievable to me.

Let me fully dubunk you

See below ...

PintOfView wrote: »

click the link at end of prev line ^^ to go to the original post on another thread
(note: it's one of the conspiracy threads!!)

Floppybits

adubintipp2 wrote: »

Is it not possible to say this about any endemic virus? This is why we have a global public health infrastructure (WHO, CDC, ECDC etc. ) monitoring a range of diseases. We don’t lock down society because chicken pox might get more deadly any day now!

This is the thing now that the fear that has been created over this virus has made people risk adverse and don't want any restrictions lifted till its eradicated which is never gonna be the case with Covid. Just need to learn to live with it, we have the vaccines and most people are getting them that's as much as we can do, we cant keep hiding under the bed hoping it will go away.

adubintipp2

The Continental Op wrote: »

I look at it another way. If the numbers are increasing then so to will the number of mutations. New mutations might be better but just a likely to be worse. So every effort should be made to keep the numbers down even if hospitals aren't filling up.

Is it not possible to say this about any endemic virus? This is why we have a global public health infrastructure (WHO, CDC, ECDC etc. ) monitoring a range of diseases. We don’t lock down society because chicken pox might get more deadly any day now!

Paddigol

Biscuitus wrote: »

The problem is it could mutate into a variant that the current vaccines are ineffective against which would completely undo all the progress made so far sending is back into summer 2020.

Well, if that's the logic we need to seal our borders as any mutation is 99.99999% certain to originate outside the country and be brought in, as with previous variants.

All we can do is recognise the seriousness of the Delta variant, adapt our strategy accordingly to ensure that as many people as possible are vaccinated before opening up indoor hospitality. After that we can only wait and see how the virus reacts over the coming months/ years. But we can't live under a rock until/ in the hope that it disappears completely.

[Deleted User]

TonyMaloney wrote: »

As ever, you can predict hospitalisations by looking at cases.

Why on earth would we stop now?

Firstly it should be the positivity rate, not cases that should be used. The more you test, the more cases you get, even if the underlying case numbers are the same.

You have to drastically alter your model to take account vaccinations and what is appearing to be the much milder but more transmissible Delta variant.

The UK data actually looks very good.

Here are the cases - terrible right?

However if we look at what % of cases are positive, it is only slightly up:

How could this be? Well, it's because they have been testing like crazy, not least because they say Delta presents like hayfever :

And then if we look at hospital admissions:

These are ALL good.

Finally, if we look at ground zero for Delta, India, who basically have no one vaccinated, their deaths are nothing like what the UK or Ireland had from Alpha, despite media scaremongering. Of course India has different demographics but the point still stands.

I'm sure someone will chip in with a highly zoomed in graphic with no numbers on the X axis showing a massive upswing, as many "scientists" like Feigl Ding or anyone from Independent SAGE or ISAG shamefully do regularly.

Regrettably there will be a lot of cases, and some deaths regrettably, but it will be much much smaller than the first two waves of deaths we had ( we didn't have 3 waves in Ireland, we had two, as the last graph clearly shows ).

is_that_so

TonyMaloney wrote: »

As ever, you can predict hospitalisations by looking at cases.

Why on earth would we stop now?

They can't be predicted with any level of accuracy now based on the profile of those unvaccinated. The NAMA models are using 2-3%, quite a bit above what the UK are experiencing. From our perspective the number of cases controls what we do. As we've seen our 500 cases a day for months has not affected our hospitalisations at all. That suggests the 5,7 and 14 day model they rely on and its progression to a specific level of more severe disease is no longer as closely linked.

As I like to repeat - 5000 daily cases and empty hospitals is a cold!