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The Delta variant

amandstu

How might this play out?

Apparently cases in England may be doubling every 4.5 days and resultant hospitalizations are said to be possibly between 2 and 3 times more likely that with the Alpha variant.

Only 1% prevalence here at the moment seemingly.

Back of envelope modeling in my sitting room is not reassuring and I am not near to getting my second AstraZeneca jab yet( so 30% protected against symptomatic disease?)

EDIT: Have been corrected in this thread that parts of England (not England as a whole) had cases doubling every 4.5 days

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cheezums

Biscuitus wrote: »

The problem is it could mutate into a variant that the current vaccines are ineffective against which would completely undo all the progress made so far sending is back into summer 2020.

And an asteroid could hit us tomorrow. Why worry about this ****? What good does it achieve?

brickster69

Holland starting a bit like Spain & Portugal 2/3 weeks ago.

https://twitter.com/equibotanica/status/1412284788334108672

[Deleted User]

brickster69 wrote: »

Holland starting a bit like Spain & Portugal 2/3 weeks ago.

https://twitter.com/equibotanica/status/1412284788334108672

Doesn't really look like Spain and Portugal 2/3 weeks ago.

ACitizenErased

800 less cases in Scotland today compared with last Tuesday.

https://twitter.com/UKCovid19Stats/status/1412419323461881874?s=20

ACitizenErased

"Having plateaued for around three days, the seven-day average has dropped for two days running, and now stands at 3,216. "

[Deleted User]

With all vaccines 60 odd per cent stopping delta infection its going to be difficult to keep r rate below 1. Not sure how this is going to play out.I reckon there will still be many deaths yet in europe. herd immunity is not happening.

[Deleted User]

ACitizenErased wrote: »

"Having plateaued for around three days, the seven-day average has dropped for two days running, and now stands at 3,216. "

Hopefully the "delta surge" was at least partially a function of pockets of poor vaccine uptake

ACitizenErased

More on Scotland and some parts of England, there is some plateauing/reductions happening. Hopefully this is sustained.
E5nLW_GWUAUkmBW?format=jpg&name=900x900

TonyMaloney

ACitizenErased wrote: »

"Having plateaued for around three days, the seven-day average has dropped for two days running, and now stands at 3,216. "

Unfortunately there's already one hospital under considerable strain.

As double vaxxed staff will often get sick again, many hospitals are in for some challenging staffing issues again I guess.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-highlands-islands-57735232.amp

Boggles

The UK has recorded 28,773 new coronavirus cases, according to the latest update to the government’s Covid dashboard. That is the highest daily total on this measure since the end of January (29,079 cases on 29 January). And the total number of new cases over the past seven days is up 49% on the total for the previous week

They will comfortably hit Javid's prediction of 50k per day by Monday week.

brickster69

https://twitter.com/James1uk/status/1412429344534843397

brickster69

Boggles wrote: »

They will comfortably hit Javid's prediction of 50k per day by Monday week.

I thought cases don't matter anymore ?

is_that_so

Think this is relevant here.
"As of the end of Monday, 86.2% of British adults had received one dose of a coronavirus vaccination and 64.3% had received two doses."

We are at 50% and 70% respectively and are aiming for about 67% and 82% for the end of this month.

OwenM

TonyMaloney wrote: »

Unfortunately there's already one hospital under considerable strain.

As double vaxxed staff will often get sick again, many hospitals are in for some challenging staffing issues again I guess.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-highlands-islands-57735232.amp

If that is going to happen in any significant number then why bother with vaccines at all?

Have you way to quantify 'often'?

Or is it just procedural self isolation that might cause shortages of staff - because it seems they are dumping that now: https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-57733276

wadacrack

brickster69 wrote: »

https://twitter.com/James1uk/status/1412429344534843397

I'd be fearful of relatively harsh restrictions being brought back here in October or so. I don't think the public could handle it again.

On the other hand vaccination rates likely to be very high by then, hopefully it will be enough

brickster69

wadacrack wrote: »

I'd be fearful of relatively harsh restrictions being brought back here in October or so. I don't think the public could handle it again.

On the other hand vaccination rates likely to be very high by then, hopefully it will be enough

At least you have a good guinea pig

TonyMaloney

OwenM wrote: »

If that is going to happen in any significant number then why bother with vaccines at all?

Have you way to quantify 'often'?

Or is it just procedural self isolation that might cause shortages of staff - because it seems they are dumping that now: https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-57733276

Why bother with vaccines? To avoid severe illness and death.
They're still fantastic at doing that.

I can't yet quantify how often it's going to happen, but if it's occurring in one Scottish hospital it's quite likely happening in many

Lyle

EDIT:

My previous post here was way off, so I've deleted it. I won't be relying on that twitter page for info anymore. This is the actual hospital admissions data from various sources. It's not great, but still needs more context. Half of all admissions now are under 45 years old which hopefully means a) less or no deaths and b) a faster discharge of admissions from this age cohort.

https://twitter.com/fact_covid/status/1412426776643522569?s=20

https://mobile.twitter.com/BristOliver/status/1412427154315436037

https://mobile.twitter.com/COVID19actuary/status/1412434233923149825

brickster69

Spanish health ministry recommends the immediate closure of all nightclubs in Spain to the Government.

https://www.ideal.es/sociedad/salud/sanidad-propone-cerrar-20210706173505-ntrc.html

FileNotFound

brickster69 wrote: »

Spanish health ministry recommends the immediate closure of all nightclubs in Spain to the Government.

https://www.ideal.es/sociedad/salud/sanidad-propone-cerrar-20210706173505-ntrc.html

Imagine that - who thought a hot sweaty packed nightclub would be a bad idea.

If spain and portugal have been at this kind of thing there numbers are going to be totally out of whack.

TonyMaloney

FileNotFound wrote: »

Imagine that - who thought a hot sweaty packed nightclub would be a bad idea.

If spain and portugal have been at this kind of thing there numbers are going to be totally out of whack.

Portugal absolutely have not. They've been ostensibly quite cautious, but unlucky.

Floppybits

The Delta variant is dead now there is the lambda Variant.

is_that_so

Floppybits wrote: »

The Delta variant is dead now there is the lambda Variant.

It's still a variant of interest not a VOC. No panic on it by the look of things.

https://www.euronews.com/2021/07/06/lambda-what-do-we-know-about-the-latest-covid-variant-flagged-by-the-who

brickster69

Greece cases up 150% in a week, a bit like Holland that one.

Portugal, Spain, Cyprus and Greece looking like holidays are going to be off limits in a few weeks time. Looking inevitable to be fair.

[Deleted User]

https://www.independent.ie/world-news/middle-east/decrease-in-effectiveness-of-pfizerbiontech-vaccine-reported-in-israel-40620038.html

MRNA less effective against Delta.

They all seem to protect 60 odd % against infection and over 90 odd % against severe illness.

Fook all difference between any of them.

Get the one first one available.

Micky 32

Woody79 wrote: »

https://www.independent.ie/world-news/middle-east/decrease-in-effectiveness-of-pfizerbiontech-vaccine-reported-in-israel-40620038.html

MRNA less effective against Delta.

They all seem to protect 60 odd % against infection and over 90 odd % against severe illness.

Fook all difference between any of them.

Get the one first one available.

This thread maybe of some interest regarding this :

https://twitter.com/shalituri/status/1412424696491089926?s=21

ACitizenErased

Woody79 wrote: »

https://www.independent.ie/world-news/middle-east/decrease-in-effectiveness-of-pfizerbiontech-vaccine-reported-in-israel-40620038.html

MRNA less effective against Delta.

They all seem to protect 60 odd % against infection and over 90 odd % against severe illness.

Fook all difference between any of them.

Get the one first one available.

That Israel study is incredibly flawed. One commenter put it as suggesting the Delta variant was worse than Ebola.

[Deleted User]

ACitizenErased wrote: »

That Israel study is incredibly flawed. One commenter put it as suggesting the Delta variant was worse than Ebola.

If it said 100% protection, you would probably agree with study.

More like its incredibly not what you want to hear.

Who says its flawed? yourself becuase its not what you want to hear :rolleyes:

Lets be honest all vaccines are around the 60% mark against this variant with regards to infection protection.

All protect against hospitalisation by > 90% and mortality 95-99%.

Phillip Nolan said as much a few months ago.

Its also why 20 somethings are mad to get J&J.

One and your done.

ACitizenErased

Woody79 wrote: »

If it said 100% protection, you would probably agree with study.

More like its incredibly not what you want to hear.

Who says its flawed? yourself becuase its not what you want to hear :rolleyes:

Lets be honest all vaccines are around the 60% mark against this variant with regards to infection protection.

All protect against hospitalisation by > 90% and mortality 95-99%.

Phillip Nolan said as much a few months ago.

Its also why 20 somethings are mad to get J&J.

One and your done.

Any bit of research at all can show you it's flawed.

https://twitter.com/dvir_a/status/1412426715050172420?s=20

[Deleted User]

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Any bit of research at all can show you it's flawed.

https://twitter.com/dvir_a/status/1412426715050172420?s=20

Some lad on twitter like yourself does'nt like the study either.

Apologies.

Great rebuttal :pac::pac: