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The Delta variant

amandstu

How might this play out?

Apparently cases in England may be doubling every 4.5 days and resultant hospitalizations are said to be possibly between 2 and 3 times more likely that with the Alpha variant.

Only 1% prevalence here at the moment seemingly.

Back of envelope modeling in my sitting room is not reassuring and I am not near to getting my second AstraZeneca jab yet( so 30% protected against symptomatic disease?)

EDIT: Have been corrected in this thread that parts of England (not England as a whole) had cases doubling every 4.5 days

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robinph

brickster69 wrote: »

Wales jumps a fair whack.

https://twitter.com/UKCovid19Stats/status/1412003834940035074

I don't think Wales report on any cases over the weekend.

Boggles

Bsharp wrote: »

Hopefully they stay that way so I can conclude, rightly or wrongly, that the big jump was associated with Italia 90 style festivities for the Euros. Anecdotally that's the case from our Glasgow and Edinburgh offices in work.

They tested nearly 43,000 last Monday highest in the pandemic AFAIK.

For context they tested just above 20,000 in last 24 hours.

Seems like the Scots were well prepared for the outbreak associated with football festivities and fúcked the testing kitchen sink at it last week and before, all though contact tracing seems not to be running optimally.

7 day average down very slightly.

Micky 32

TonyMaloney wrote: »

This is in Hebrew, but Chrome should translate it for you

https://www.ynet.co.il/news/article/rJQ1O5kp00

64% versus 94.3% prior to delta

Just to add to this :

https://twitter.com/sailorrooscout/status/1412030947189473286?s=21

ACitizenErased

The Israeli data should be questioned based on the fact it seems to be the complete opposite to what every other study is saying.

ACitizenErased

New study from Canada (https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.06.28.21259420v1) shows full vaccination increased protection against Delta (B.1.617.2) to levels comparable to Alpha (B.1.1.7), Beta (B.1.351) and Gamma (P.1.) and that Pfizer, Moderna, AND AstraZeneca are indeed effective against symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection

brickster69

Portugal hospitals

136 in ICU + 18.26% in 7 days
613 in hospital + 21.62% in 7 days

https://www.futebol365.pt/artigo/262690-covid-19-portugal-com-mais-de-600-pessoas-internadas-e-cinco-mortes/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=Noticias

ACitizenErased

27,556 cases in the UK today. That's not the highest figure in the last 7 days and is 4800 more than last Monday.

FileNotFound

ACitizenErased wrote: »

New study from Canada (https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.06.28.21259420v1) shows full vaccination increased protection against Delta (B.1.617.2) to levels comparable to Alpha (B.1.1.7), Beta (B.1.351) and Gamma (P.1.) and that Pfizer, Moderna, AND AstraZeneca are indeed effective against symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection

Great news, SA study had J&J highly effective.

Micky 32

https://twitter.com/sailorrooscout/status/1412040711428579329?s=21

niallo27

27 deaths yesterday in the UK for covid and 1163 deaths yesterday due to flu and pneumonia.

FileNotFound

niallo27 wrote: »

27 deaths yesterday in the UK for covid and 1163 deaths yesterday due to flu and pneumonia.

Is this accurate? seem very high for flu in summer

Lyle

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1412079641586774029?s=20

UK hospitals +341 today, which I think is the biggest one day increase since a +348 on March 24th, according to https://www.statista.com/statistics/1190335/covid-19-daily-hospitalizations-in-the-uk/

If that daily number doesn't taper off a bit as we go through the week it could put the sh*ts up our lot.

Lumen

FileNotFound wrote: »

Is this accurate? seem very high for flu in summer

No, the deaths is a weekly figure.

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/flu-pneumonia-deaths-10-times-higher-covid-ons-b942170.html

edit: actually my article is from June, I don't know where Niall got his from, but I'm guessing that's weekly too.

is_that_so

Lyle wrote: »

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1412079641586774029?s=20

UK hospitals +341 today, which I think is the biggest one day increase since a +348 on March 24th, according to https://www.statista.com/statistics/1190335/covid-19-daily-hospitalizations-in-the-uk/

If that daily number doesn't taper off a bit as we go through the week it could put the sh*ts up our lot.

Do they give age profiles of cases and hospitalisations? Vaccine resistance is known issue in some elderly minority groups.

hmmm

ACitizenErased wrote: »

The Israeli data should be questioned based on the fact it seems to be the complete opposite to what every other study is saying.

All of these studies are showing the same basic results, even if the percentages differ. The problem is unvaccinated people. Vaccinated people can get Covid, and a very small number can become seriously ill, but in general you are safe. The vast vast majority of infections and severe illness are are in unvaccinated groups.

The unvaccinated to my mind fall into four groups:
1. People who want a vaccine but haven't been offered one. We owe it as a society to them to make sure we don't let the virus run rampant until they get vaxxed.
2. Children and teens. We'll have to wait what the science says as to their risk, but I'm expect that teens will probably be recommended for vaccination.
3. People who have been vaccinated, but didn't respond well to it. Hopefully a third vaccine can help increase their protection levels.
4. People who refused vaccines. Their choice to take their chances with Covid, and once the above groups are looked after we will have to reopen society fully.

St.Spodo

Why are Eric Fiegl-Ding, Aoife McLysaght and other scientific communicators conflating the Israeli study which describes Pfizer's efficacy against *both* symptomatic infection and asymptomatic infection with its previously published efficacy against purely symptomatic infection? The Public Health England study and the study out of Ontario today indicate that Pfizer is 88% or 87% effective respectively against disease, which reflects a modest reduction in efficacy from 93% protection against symptomatic disease from Alpha, *not* infection.

Micky 32

Tony H is quite confident in the vaccines against Delta :

“Chief Medical Officer Dr Tony Holohan said more than 70% of all cases are now accounted for by the Delta variant.”

“”In a statement, he said: "While this variant continues to present a threat, those of us who are fully vaccinated can have confidence in their vaccine and should feel comfortable meeting with other fully vaccinated people in all settings."”

davemckenna25

niallo27 wrote: »

27 deaths yesterday in the UK for covid and 1163 deaths yesterday due to flu and pneumonia.

Would love to see this backed up with a link?

In July and 1163 deaths from flu and pneumonia in a single day?

brickster69

Lyle wrote: »

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1412079641586774029?s=20

UK hospitals +341 today, which I think is the biggest one day increase since a +348 on March 24th, according to https://www.statista.com/statistics/1190335/covid-19-daily-hospitalizations-in-the-uk/

If that daily number doesn't taper off a bit as we go through the week it could put the sh*ts up our lot.

Hang on a minute i thought it was all about not allowing the health service to be swamped. 2304 people in hospital and there are 1300 hospitals in the UK.

What is that ? 1 person and a leg are in each hospital currently with covid.

agoodpunt

Looking at Israel sees a drop in efficasy rate for pfizer on another page it said a 3rd jab maybe needed not quite there yet

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/israel-sees-decline-in-pfizer-vaccine-efficacy-rate-ynet-says-1.1625333

Boggles

niallo27 wrote: »

27 deaths yesterday in the UK for covid and 1163 deaths yesterday due to flu and pneumonia.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/998282/Weekly_COVID-19_and_Influenza_Surveillance_Graphs_w26.pdf

Page 10, red line is influenza.

There is zero flu in the UK detected.

Have you citation for your claim?

niallo27

davemckenna25 wrote: »

Would love to see this backed up with a link?

In July and 1163 deaths from flu and pneumonia in a single day?

Boggles wrote: »

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/998282/Weekly_COVID-19_and_Influenza_Surveillance_Graphs_w26.pdf

Page 10, red line is influenza.

There is zero flu in the UK detected.

Have you citation for your claim?

My apologies, I should have said in a week, it's only 10 times the number of covid deaths.

TefalBrain

Numbers of deaths now tiny compared to other illnesses. Covid isn't relevant anymore.

Boggles

niallo27 wrote: »

My apologies, I should have said in a week, it's only 10 times the number of covid deaths.

Okay, have you citation for that so?

niallo27

TefalBrain wrote: »

Numbers of deaths now tiny compared to other illnesses. Covid isn't relevant anymore.

That's exactly it, before covid I had no idea how many people die each day. I had no idea it would be so high for different diseases but for some reason a covid death is more important than a 100 people dieing of another disease.

niallo27

Boggles wrote: »

Okay, have you citation for that so?

A citation, relax there professor Boggles. The link was posted up the page.

brickster69

And so it starts

https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/spains-covid-19-cases-jump-youth-infection-surges-2021-07-05/?taid=60e348a7fdc7d30001f56b6d&utm_campaign=trueanthem&utm_medium=trueanthem&utm_source=twitter

davemckenna25

niallo27 wrote: »

My apologies, I should have said in a week, it's only 10 times the number of covid deaths.

Apology accepted.
Try to keep the facts correct.

TefalBrain

brickster69 wrote: »

And so it starts

https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/spains-covid-19-cases-jump-youth-infection-surges-2021-07-05/?taid=60e348a7fdc7d30001f56b6d&utm_campaign=trueanthem&utm_medium=trueanthem&utm_source=twitter

So what starts?

CIARAN_BOYLE

TonyMaloney wrote: »

This is in Hebrew, but Chrome should translate it for you

https://www.ynet.co.il/news/article/rJQ1O5kp00

64% versus 94.3% prior to delta

The 93% protection against serious illness is the important thing in the long run.

In the short term its disappointing that vaccinated people can get infected (as they can spread covid to the unvacinated) but they won't suffer severe symptoms as the protection from the vaccine will extend that far.

We will get there but we may need a higher % of the population vaccinated before it is safe to reopen than we would have hoped for.