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DBS By election - Thursday 8th July

Muahahaha

So its looking like the by election for Eoghan Murphys seat in Dublin Bay South is set to take place with Thursday 8th July the likely date and it will serve as this summers political bloodsports. Its unlikely to be as entertaining at last summers edition when we had Golfgate, Seamus Wolfe and Phil Hogans golf tour of Ireland during a pandemic. Nonetheless by elections are always good entertainment with entire party machines focusing all their resources on a single constituency.

Candidates so far
James Geoghegan (FG)
Ivana Bacik (Labour)
Deirdre Conroy (FF)
Lynn Boylan (SF)
Claire Byrne (Green)
Sarah Durcan (SDs)
Bridget Purcell (PBP)
Justin Barrett (National Party)
Jacqui Gilbourne (Renua)
Mairead Tobin (Aontu)
Then there are four Independents- Mannix Flynn, Michael McGrath, Peter Dooley and Norma Burke aka Bunty McFluff

This seat should be a slam dunk for Fine Gael in what is the most Fine Gael constituency in the entire country. It would have been a certain slam dunk had FG put forward Kate o'Connell who DBS had previously elected but Varadkar decided to shaft her instead. She later complained that FG party activists placed a homemade sign saying 'M50' outside her pharmacy in Rathgar, telling her to go back down the country from where she came. Another FGer brought a lump of turf to a meeting with the intention of handing it to her until some common sense broke out. So the message from FG to Kate o'Connell was clear that she wasnt wanted and that culchies like her are not welcome in Dublin 6.

Leaving James Geoghegan as the FG front runner and bookies favourite. But his campaign hasnt exactly got off to a flier. He was a former lobbyist for tobacco companies but his excuse is its not his fault for what he works in. Now he is trying to claim that he is not a pro-lifer when he literally worked and campaigned for Lucinda Creighton who stood on a pro life platform and as leader of the pro life party Renua. He is saying he wants to be the voice of the generation who are locked out of the housing market while he himself just bought his first house for 750,000, he is so far removed from your average first time buyer struggling to buy a house that its not funny. So Geoghegan has done a lot of spoofing. But that might not matter in a strong FG consittuency who previously already elected the inanimate carbon rod known as Eoghan Murphy.

Simon Harris is Fine Gaels Director of Elections for James Geoghegan and has already displayed that uncanny Fine Gael knack of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. Last week he called Sinn Fein "sinister" for using fake polling companies and the very next day his own candidate Geoghegan came out and admitted that he himself had conducted fake polling door to door on behalf of his pro life party Renua. So by Harris' own metric his candidate is now deemed as"sinister", you really couldnt make it up.

Otherwise Bacik is expected to put in a good showing. Her posters have her on her bicycle so she is aiming at the large Green vote in this constituency. FF Deirdre Conroys campaign already seems dead in the water but it will be fun when she gets asked about her compo claim for falling over when skiing on a free holiday when she worked for the Irish Independent. This is Maria Bailey stuff all over again. Lynn Boylan should have a decent showing but wont come anywhere near taking the seat when transfer get distributed. Lots of eyes will also be on Justin Barrett of the National Party and his anti immigrant rhetoric

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Loafing Oaf

hatrickpatrick wrote: »

What were SF thinking, running a non-local candidate? It's fairly obvious from a lot of the commentary around this by-election that local recognition is extremely important in this constituency - many have even pointed out that SF's performance in the 2020 GE may have been more down to Chris Andrews and how people feel about him personally, than any kind of party support, for a large part.

I actually didn't even realise that "parachute" candidates were legal until this - I always assumed one had to be registered to vote in the constituency one wanted to stand for election in.

Just seems to me that in a constituency which was always going to be a long shot to win a by-election, SF really missed a trick in not getting someone well known locally to stand.

I was in town myself on Friday evening and walked from Grand Canal DART station, along the canal all the way to Clanbrassil Street. I don't think I saw one Lynn Boylan election posted at any of the intersections where there were many election posters for other candidates - Bacik's face, for example, is everywhere.

What are they playing at? Is this bad election management, the arrogance of flying high in the polls, or a pre-existing resignation to not winning this seat anyway and therefore a reluctance to spend real money or commit real manpower to the campaign?

Looks like a throw of the dice: presumably they didn't have a strong local candidate so they drafted in their highest-profile non-TD in the republic in the hope she would get in on the SF brand.

As pointed out SF were late in announcing her candidacy so I suspect Boylan had to be persuaded to run, in the knowledge that if she won she probably wouldn't be standing again in the constituency in the GE.

blanch152

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

Bacik has moved in to favourite for this seat

https://www.paddypower.com/politics/irish-politics

Can anyone offer an explanation for her emergence to the front of this race.
I had assumed Geoghegan's main rival for this seat would be Boylan or failing her Byrne.

Bacik's strong showing doesn't seem to reflect any broader resurgence for the Labour Party, and the 'social issues' with which she is primarily associated are mom and apple pie nowadays. Maybe she has a broader personal popularity in DBS than in the constituencies she has previously run...

She was President of TCDSU back in the day which was in the constituency.

Plenty of TCD alumni around Dublin Bay South.

blanch152

hatrickpatrick wrote: »

What were SF thinking, running a non-local candidate? It's fairly obvious from a lot of the commentary around this by-election that local recognition is extremely important in this constituency - many have even pointed out that SF's performance in the 2020 GE may have been more down to Chris Andrews and how people feel about him personally, than any kind of party support, for a large part.

I actually didn't even realise that "parachute" candidates were legal until this - I always assumed one had to be registered to vote in the constituency one wanted to stand for election in.

Just seems to me that in a constituency which was always going to be a long shot to win a by-election, SF really missed a trick in not getting someone well known locally to stand.

I was in town myself on Friday evening and walked from Grand Canal DART station, along the canal all the way to Clanbrassil Street. I don't think I saw one Lynn Boylan election posted at any of the intersections where there were many election posters for other candidates - Bacik's face, for example, is everywhere.

What are they playing at? Is this bad election management, the arrogance of flying high in the polls, or a pre-existing resignation to not winning this seat anyway and therefore a reluctance to spend real money or commit real manpower to the campaign?

The assumption in your post is that SF are a normal political party. That is simply not the case.

Once you view what has happened with Lynn Boylan through that prism, it is all clear.

ohnonotgmail

blanch152 wrote: »

She was President of TCDSU back in the day which was in the constituency.

Plenty of TCD alumni around Dublin Bay South.

I was a class rep when she was president of the SU. she was as charmless then.

Shelga

NewbridgeIR wrote: »

I love the way James Geoghegan is not a landlord but the Soc Dem and Sinn Fein candidates are.

Is this true? Do you have a source for this? Have to say, I like the Soc Dems but it would irritate me to find out Durcan is a landlord. Call me a commie if you like :pac:

*Edit* I see Durcan owns a house in Castlebar, and an apartment in Dublin 8. Not as bad as owning 10 houses in Dublin and charging extortionate rent on them all, but I would prefer a candidate who is also facing being locked out of ever owning their home. More on-brand for the SDs! Maybe that's illogical and Sarah does seem like a decent sort, but meh.

hatrickpatrick

blanch152 wrote: »

The assumption in your post is that SF are a normal political party. That is simply not the case.

Once you view what has happened with Lynn Boylan through that prism, it is all clear.

Humour me though - I mean, they still presumably want to actually win, and regardless of how their candidate selection process works, surely this should be at the absolute forefront of their considerations when choosing a candidate?

I have nothing against Boylan by the way, from what I've seen of her I like her and I think she'd make a great TD, I just don't understand the logic of asking someone from a different constituency to run in a constituency in which local recognition and familiarity clearly matter a great deal to many of those voting.

Purely from an electoral success standpoint, you'd think someone in the party would have said "hang on, this may not be the best idea", wouldn't you? Even if, as you say, they're not a normal party?

Not being a normal party surely doesn't extend into not wanting to win elections

Faugheen

hatrickpatrick wrote: »

What were SF thinking, running a non-local candidate? It's fairly obvious from a lot of the commentary around this by-election that local recognition is extremely important in this constituency - many have even pointed out that SF's performance in the 2020 GE may have been more down to Chris Andrews and how people feel about him personally, than any kind of party support, for a large part.

I actually didn't even realise that "parachute" candidates were legal until this - I always assumed one had to be registered to vote in the constituency one wanted to stand for election in.

Just seems to me that in a constituency which was always going to be a long shot to win a by-election, SF really missed a trick in not getting someone well known locally to stand.

I was in town myself on Friday evening and walked from Grand Canal DART station, along the canal all the way to Clanbrassil Street. I don't think I saw one Lynn Boylan election posted at any of the intersections where there were many election posters for other candidates - Bacik's face, for example, is everywhere.

What are they playing at? Is this bad election management, the arrogance of flying high in the polls, or a pre-existing resignation to not winning this seat anyway and therefore a reluctance to spend real money or commit real manpower to the campaign?

They wanted someone with name recognition to pick up votes from undecideds it seems. I don’t think they’ve anybody outside of Andrews who is particularly strong either.

A lot of SF’s TDs are absolute duds (like most parties) and they know this.

Having said that, someone like Fintan Warfield would have been a much closer match for Bacik I think. I know he’s from the next constituency over but he would be a likeable character for someone who lives in DBS.

L1011

Had SF run their councillor in the area (Daniel Céitinn) with his very poor name recognition / profile there's a chance the result would have been very embarrassing, and a bad result can start a run - I suspect they wish they'd never run in the 2018 Presidential for instance.

Claw Hammer

A quota in this by-election is 50%. Andrews polled 16.7% and was only elected on the 8th count in 2020. No way was SF ever going to win the seat. It is the least transfer friendly party.
FG polled 27% with 2 candidates, both sitting TDs. Even if Geoghegan holds all of it he will have to accumulate a huge number of transfers.
The seat will be one by the candidate who does best on transfers, not necessarily the one who leads or is even 2nd or 3rd on the first count.

blackwhite

hatrickpatrick wrote: »

Humour me though - I mean, they still presumably want to actually win, and regardless of how their candidate selection process works, surely this should be at the absolute forefront of their considerations when choosing a candidate?

I have nothing against Boylan by the way, from what I've seen of her I like her and I think she'd make a great TD, I just don't understand the logic of asking someone from a different constituency to run in a constituency in which local recognition and familiarity clearly matter a great deal to many of those voting.

Purely from an electoral success standpoint, you'd think someone in the party would have said "hang on, this may not be the best idea", wouldn't you? Even if, as you say, they're not a normal party?

Not being a normal party surely doesn't extend into not wanting to win elections

My read on the Boylan nomination was that it's not really aimed at this by-election. It's one that SF likely never realistically thought they could win, so instead they drop in a more well-known candidate who can 1) keep her own profile in the public consciousness and 2) get a better share of FPV than a relative unknown candidate might have.

She'll likely be standing in Dublin South-West in the next GE. A lot seem to be assuming Crowe will retire to be replaced by Boylan, but I actually think he'll hang on and they'll target Paul Murphy's seat with a strong second candidate.
Keeping Boylan's name in the minds of electorate will help with that strategy

Loafing Oaf

Claw Hammer wrote: »

Even if Geoghegan holds all of it he will have to accumulate a huge number of transfers.

This is why I think Byrne calling for her voters to transfer to Bacik could be a death blow for him. Obviously a lot of Greenn voters would be transferring that way anyway but if this only swings a couple of hundred it could decide the seat.

MacronvFrugals

Where does Leo stand if Geoghegan cant hold the seat?

Loafing Oaf

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

Where does Leo stand if Geoghegan cant hold the seat?

Much the same as he does today, unless Geoghegan absolutely tanks. By-elections are never 'must-wins' for government parties.

L1011

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

Where does Leo stand if Geoghegan cant hold the seat?

"He's a fine candidate who has laid down a marker for the GE, XX% is / is near a quota in a GE" and never mentions it again.

MacronvFrugals

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

Much the same as he does today, unless Geoghegan absolutely tanks. By-elections are never 'must-wins' for government parties.

Even though he axed Repeal powerhouse Kate O Connell?

[Deleted User]

When can we expect results? Are they counting Friday or will it be the weekend?

Claw Hammer

Heraclius wrote: »

When can we expect results? Are they counting Friday or will it be the weekend?

The count will start on Friday morning. It will probably go to 10 counts so it will be Friday afternoon before there are any tallies and it may be Saturday before there is a result.

[Deleted User]

Hopefully it'll be a tight one so we have plenty of entertainment:)

L1011

Claw Hammer wrote: »

The count will start on Friday morning. It will probably go to 10 counts so it will be Friday afternoon before there are any tallies and it may be Saturday before there is a result.

Tallies happen at opening of the boxes and only then - its impossible to see the ballots otherwise.

Unless there's a very significant turnout of (experienced - no space for a caller+tallier if doing more than one per box) talliers its only first preference too, which in this race won't be much use.

Darc19

Claw Hammer wrote: »

The count will start on Friday morning. It will probably go to 10 counts so it will be Friday afternoon before there are any tallies and it may be Saturday before there is a result.

you'll have tallies fairly quickly, but they will get updated as more boxes get opened. That's assuming the tallymen (and women) are allowed into the count centre.

Exit poll will be just after 10.30pm and exit poll have proven to be fairly accurate.

Claw Hammer

Darc19 wrote: »

you'll have tallies fairly quickly, but they will get updated as more boxes get opened. That's assuming the tallymen (and women) are allowed into the count centre.

Exit poll will be just after 10.30pm and exit poll have proven to be fairly accurate.

The early tallies won't be much use. In a by election where the result will depend on transfers an exit poll won't be as accurate as in a general election. The main item of interest will be how well Bad Chick does on the first count.

rdwight

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

Bacik has moved in to favourite for this seat

https://www.paddypower.com/politics/irish-politics

Can anyone offer an explanation for her emergence to the front of this race.
I had assumed Geoghegan's main rival for this seat would be Boylan or failing her Byrne.

Bacik's strong showing doesn't seem to reflect any broader resurgence for the Labour Party, and the 'social issues' with which she is primarily associated are mom and apple pie nowadays. Maybe she has a broader personal popularity in DBS than in the constituencies she has previously run...

Bacik's the acceptable face of wokeness and has been paying her social issues dues for years.

Sinn Fein is toxic in this constituency outside the Widow Scanlon's physical and psychic catchment area

There's a lot of people in constituency who have voted Labour in the past and are willing to drift back for good candidate

FG candidate uninspired.

Greens have good candidate but holding two seats in next GE would be stretch.

hatrickpatrick

Heraclius wrote: »

Hopefully it'll be a tight one so we have plenty of entertainment:)

I love posting among my own kind

Most of my friends were incredulous at my reasoning for thinking e-voting was a boring idea, "the paper count is one of the most electric atmospheres known to mankind if you're in the building for it"

L1011

Paper count also lets you have a good idea that you're (candidate, party, family, whatever connection to the candidate) horribly screwed a lot earlier than it flashing up on a screen in one go as STV would require (can't do area by area counts and actually work out transfers). Lets you die inside slowly rather than immediately!

Faugheen

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

Where does Leo stand if Geoghegan cant hold the seat?

As he is. Government parties only really win by-elections if the incumbent was a government TD who passed away.

It's a harsh way of looking at it but it's true.

Annasopra

Darc19 wrote: »

you'll have tallies fairly quickly, but they will get updated as more boxes get opened. That's assuming the tallymen (and women) are allowed into the count centre.

Exit poll will be just after 10.30pm and exit poll have proven to be fairly accurate.

Is there an exit poll? I doubt there would be

Granadino

Can’t wait until the Longford by election is given as much airtime . Outside of SCD, who cares about an election in SCD?

L1011

Granadino wrote: »

Can’t wait until the Longford by election is given as much airtime . Outside of SCD, who cares about an election in SCD?

Longford hasn't existed as a constituency for 99 years.

However, if a Government TD resigns in Longford-Westmeath (there's three of them) and it looks likely they could lose the seat (they probably would), it would get as much coverage as this.

Darc19

Annasopra wrote: »

Is there an exit poll? I doubt there would be

I would expect so especially as it's unlikely tallymen will be allowed into the count centre

Faugheen

Granadino wrote: »

Can’t wait until the Longford by election is given as much airtime . Outside of SCD, who cares about an election in SCD?

It's significant for a number of reasons. First election since the pandemic and first real test of mood towards the government in what is a strong constituency for the government (nearly 2/3 voted for government parties in GE).

You might not think it's significant but it is.