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The Delta variant

amandstu

How might this play out?

Apparently cases in England may be doubling every 4.5 days and resultant hospitalizations are said to be possibly between 2 and 3 times more likely that with the Alpha variant.

Only 1% prevalence here at the moment seemingly.

Back of envelope modeling in my sitting room is not reassuring and I am not near to getting my second AstraZeneca jab yet( so 30% protected against symptomatic disease?)

EDIT: Have been corrected in this thread that parts of England (not England as a whole) had cases doubling every 4.5 days

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Lyle

Bit cynical wrote: »

However sometimes it is necessary to zoom out to provide context. Numbers might have risen by a certain factor over a period of time but a zoomed in graph may not show that it is still low by recent standards.

But what has come before is entirely irrelevant to analysing what might happen in the future because the situation in society is entirely different between vaccinations, infections, different levels of societal reopening. If anything, posting the bigger graph is worse than the zoomed in one!

All we can do to assess the hospitalisation situation in the UK is to look at the change between the decline of the peak in April, a bit of a levelling in May and an uptick in June, which is literally what that zoomed in graph shows. That's kind of all that is relevant to the current reality of the situation.

Micky 32

gozunda wrote: »

Well no. The devil is always in the detail ....

I have no argument there :

https://twitter.com/jamesward73/status/1411730217429868556?s=21

Micky 32

FileNotFound wrote: »

Have people forgotten the reality that opening literally means higher cases and more people going to hospital?

There’s an unusual phenomena on these forums. Some posters are stuck in 2020 and love comparing it to 2021. It’s apples and oranges.

Lyle

FileNotFound wrote: »

Have people forgotten the reality that opening literally means higher cases and more people going to hospital?

I'm pretty sure every medical expert everywhere has warned us that there will be direct rises as we reduce restrictions.

Is the question not whether they are manageable or not? Or are we trying for zero covid now?

Nobody is trying for zero covid, that ship sailed months ago. To regress to that point would be totally and utterly imbecilic and anyone still calling for it should be totally ignored.

This is pivoting now into a different discussion about how reopening without Delta would've impacted hospitalisations vs how reopening with Delta impacts hospitalisations. We're attempting to assess how Delta is impacting the UK in tandem with their reduced restrictions as a road map for ourselves. They were reopening without Delta and hospitalisations were going down, then Delta was introduced and hospitalisations have gone up, but not at the same speed or level as the cases have. But the relationship between all those factors is why the zoomed in graph is most relevant to our current reality despite your protestations to the contrary.

ACitizenErased

The chances of going to hospital with COVID are dramatically (as in VERY dramatically) lower than this time last year. Wish people would stop comparing.

FileNotFound

Lyle wrote: »

Nobody is trying for zero covid, that ship sailed months ago. To regress to that point would be totally and utterly imbecilic and anyone still calling for it should be totally ignored.

This is pivoting now into a different discussion about how reopening without Delta would've impacted hospitalisations vs how reopening with Delta impacts hospitalisations. We're attempting to assess how Delta is impacting the UK in tandem with their reduced restrictions as a road map for ourselves. They were reopening without Delta and hospitalisations were going down, then Delta was introduced and hospitalisations have gone up, but not at the same speed or level as the cases have. But the relationship between all those factors is why the zoomed in graph is most relevant to our current reality despite your protestations to the contrary.

I protest because i look back to the aim of lock down.

Prevent the health service from being overwhelmed. Being as it was never overwhelmed I feel ignoring the bad days (which it worked through) isn't accurate.

Showing a few hundred cases in the UK when the health service can take 20k of them shows the limited impact Delta has on their health service right now.

How we cannot model our reopening off the UK is a little confusing. They are literally weeks ahead of us in every way.

They have the euros ongoing with 60k fans in stadiums and even the scots had 100's travel the england for that game.

Of course there will be a rise in numbers all round but will it stress the health sevices? So far the answer is a flat no....

How is this irrelevant?

[Deleted User]

TonyMaloney wrote: »

Lads, if we see what's happening in Scotland replicated here we'll be in real trouble again.

The UK data does not support your argument. You should probably stop mentioning it every five minutes

Scotland only data

FileNotFound

Deleted User wrote: »

Scotland only data

Don't bother Raind - its all irrelevant according to the other side on here.

ginoginelli

It's almost laughable if it wasnt so serious when people bring up the uk as a country to copy in dealing with covid. They have consistently been one of the worst performers since this pandemic began.

Boggles

Micky 32 wrote: »

I have no argument there :

https://twitter.com/jamesward73/status/1411730217429868556?s=21

I imagine his source data is completely accurate.

But what is "5 day growth rate (Similar to R)"?

I have never seen that before.

FileNotFound

ginoginelli wrote: »

It's almost laughable if it wasnt so serious when people bring up the uk as a country to copy in dealing with covid. They have consistently been one of the worst performers since this pandemic began.

And would still be if vaccination did not work, But alas seems they got that one right.

[Deleted User]

FileNotFound wrote: »

Don't bother Raind - its all irrelevant according to the other side on here.

Its interesting you use the "other side" moniker. Many would place myself on the "other side". Wheras what I try to do is follow the data.

The data shows daily hospitalisations peaked 5 days after cases in wave 3. If this is where things are now, Scotland are at 2.8% hospitalisations compared to about 10% in Wave 3. Also as a rough guide, numbers in Hospital ran at roughly equal to daily cases 10 days earlier, now they are at about 25% of cases 10 days earlier.

FileNotFound

Deleted User wrote: »

Its interesting you use the "other side" moniker. Many would place myself on the "other side". Wheras what I try to do is follow the data.

The data shows daily hospitalisations peaked 5 days after cases in wave 3. If this is where things are now, Scotland are at 2.8% hospitalisations compared to about 10% in Wave 3. Also as a rough guide, numbers in Hospital ran at roughly equal to daily cases 10 days earlier, now they are at about 25% of cases 10 days earlier.

Specific to the discussion of using comprehensive versus limited data
Nothing to do with pro or anti lockdown - poor wording on my part

I am very pro in supporting government restrictions, have been hyper compliant and continue to comply.

I am only of the opinion that we can use what is happening in the UK to make a real fixed plan based on % vaccinated to open up finally and avoid all this confusion.

brickster69

This might be helpful when comparing.

Ireland has the data now from the UK to see how it has gone, does not mean you can exactly compare but if you were then yesterdays data in Ireland would be where UK's was on 25/5

15 minutes rough calculation gives Ireland 5 weeks behind the UK based on 70% Delta.

UK Figures

May 25th

972,000 Tests
2,493 Positive cases ( 1 case in 390 tests )
131 Hospital admissions
18 ICU admissions
Deaths 6

Vaccinations

1st dose 57.3%
2nd dose 35.8%

1st July

1,030,000 Tests
Cases 22,5000 Cases ( 1 in 46 tests )
232 Hospital admissions
40 ICU admissions
Deaths 16

Vaccinations

1st dose 67.4%
2nd dose 50.0%

bloopy

OwenM wrote: »

What a difference a day range makes.

ginoginelli

FileNotFound wrote: »

And would still be if vaccination did not work, But alas seems they got that one right.

Yes, their vaccination program has been their one saving grace. But just like their football teams of the past ( and hopefully of the future!) It looks like their about to throw it away again.

FileNotFound

ginoginelli wrote: »

Yes, their vaccination program has been their one saving grace. But just like their football teams of the past ( and hopefully of the future!) It looks like their about to throw it away again.

Guess we will get to see - great to have a huge living study to base things on rather than some worst case predictions.

Will be interesting to see what people say if it succeeds in continuing in a good way.

Lyle

FileNotFound wrote: »

I protest because i look back to the aim of lock down.

Prevent the health service from being overwhelmed. Being as it was never overwhelmed I feel ignoring the bad days (which it worked through) isn't accurate.

Showing a few hundred cases in the UK when the health service can take 20k of them shows the limited impact Delta has on their health service right now.

How we cannot model our reopening off the UK is a little confusing. They are literally weeks ahead of us in every way.

They have the euros ongoing with 60k fans in stadiums and even the scots had 100's travel the england for that game.

Of course there will be a rise in numbers all round but will it stress the health sevices? So far the answer is a flat no....

How is this irrelevant?

Because the NHS seems to be able to cope, the HSE is a shambling, creaking sh*tshow. Our tolerance level is probably multiples lower than theirs. Paul Reid yesterday saying we're already at capacity in hospitals with non-covid care, we have trolley problems again, c. 260 of 300 ICU beds are full, the cyber hack has knackered them and we can't have another wave etc etc etc. I personally don't think we're going to get slammed by a fourth wave of hospitalisations but there is an outside chance of it and the growth rate in hospitals in the UK can be our best guide for what the growth rate might be like here, and the key thing is how the HSE will react to any rise in hospitalisations.

I'm not pro-lockdown either; I work in tourism/events management, I want my life back, but I've also lost three grandparents and an uncle to this poxy virus and my aunt died because of a lack of non-covid care in hospitals during the 2021 peak. I don't want anyone else going to remote funerals that could've been prevented, nor do I want to see people who need care denied it because the HSE end up cancelling procedures and care to cope with an influx of Covid patients. We've done all we've done, stomached amongst the worst restrictions in the world, just to protect our sh*tty health service. If it had been properly run and funded, I'm very confident we wouldn't have Martin constantly telling us just two more weeks, two more weeks endlessly, but here we are. Any uptick in cases leading to any uptick in hospitalisations and I truly believe those gob****es will cancel a load of procedures again just to be cautious so they don't get overwhelmed and, in the immediacy or down the road, people will die because of it.

I won't get my career and life back until we have this under wraps and this Delta thing is a spanner because the systems we have in place in this country are unable to cope. I took umbridge with the fact that you likened a close look at the most recent hospital trends in the UK as alternative reality. I find that thinking to be nonsense. Maybe I'm too close to it all because I've lost a lot, and you don't have to be all George Lee about it and slather yourself in misery, but brushing it aside entirely as not reality isn't sensible either, especially when, as you say, our lockdown goal is to protect the health service. Nothing has been done to make the health service better so if hospitalisations go up, it's going to be on all of us again to rescue it at further cost to the economy and our collective sanity to boot.

TonyMaloney

This is in Hebrew, but Chrome should translate it for you

https://www.ynet.co.il/news/article/rJQ1O5kp00

Updated data: Decrease in vaccine effectiveness in Israel, still prevents serious illness by 93%

According to data from the Ministry of Health, the effectiveness of the vaccine against infection has dropped to 64% in the last month, against the background of the spread of the Delta strain and the abolition of restrictions. However, the protection against serious illness and hospitalization is still very high. Senior member of the epidemic treatment team: "Disturbing data". In the staff discussion tonight, no decision was made regarding a third vaccine

64% versus 94.3% prior to delta

TonyMaloney

Lyle wrote: »

Because the NHS seems to be able to cope, the HSE is a shambling, creaking sh*tshow. Our tolerance level is probably multiples lower than theirs. Paul Reid yesterday saying we're already at capacity in hospitals with non-covid care, we have trolley problems again, c. 260 of 300 ICU beds are full, the cyber hack has knackered them and we can't have another wave etc etc etc. I personally don't think we're going to get slammed by a fourth wave of hospitalisations but there is an outside chance of it and the growth rate in hospitals in the UK can be our best guide for what the growth rate might be like here, and the key thing is how the HSE will react to any rise in hospitalisations.

I'm not pro-lockdown either; I work in tourism/events management, I want my life back, but I've also lost three grandparents and an uncle to this poxy virus and my aunt died because of a lack of non-covid care in hospitals during the 2021 peak. I don't want anyone else going to remote funerals that could've been prevented, nor do I want to see people who need care denied it because the HSE end up cancelling procedures and care to cope with an influx of Covid patients. We've done all we've done, stomached amongst the worst restrictions in the world, just to protect our sh*tty health service. If it had been properly run and funded, I'm very confident we wouldn't have Martin constantly telling us just two more weeks, two more weeks endlessly, but here we are. Any uptick in cases leading to any uptick in hospitalisations and I truly believe those gob****es will cancel a load of procedures again just to be cautious so they don't get overwhelmed and, in the immediacy or down the road, people will die because of it.

I won't get my career and life back until we have this under wraps and this Delta thing is a spanner because the systems we have in place in this country are unable to cope. I took umbridge with the fact that you likened a close look at the most recent hospital trends in the UK as alternative reality. I find that thinking to be nonsense. Maybe I'm too close to it all because I've lost a lot, and you don't have to be all George Lee about it and slather yourself in misery, but brushing it aside entirely as not reality isn't sensible either, especially when, as you say, our lockdown goal is to protect the health service. Nothing has been done to make the health service better so if hospitalisations go up, it's going to be on all of us again to rescue it at further cost to the economy and our collective sanity to boot.

Jesus. That is really tough.

Sorry for your loss

bob mcbob

FileNotFound wrote: »

Have people forgotten the reality that opening literally means higher cases and more people going to hospital?

I'm pretty sure every medical expert everywhere has warned us that there will be direct rises as we reduce restrictions.

Is the question not whether they are manageable or not? Or are we trying for zero covid now?

I think another factor that needs to be considered is when this happens. Due you want more hospitalisations in summer when the health service is in a good position or in winter where it is always stretched.

There is a big risk that by delaying opening up, this will happen in winter when the hospitals will be unable to cope.

Micky 32

TonyMaloney wrote: »

This is in Hebrew, but Chrome should translate it for you

https://www.ynet.co.il/news/article/rJQ1O5kp00

64% versus 94.3% prior to delta

Are you on the PUP? You seem to have a lot of time desperately seeking hebrew sites scouring the net to get the best possible low figure stats you can find and post here from what you posted.

There’s a lot of conflicting evidence out there that tells a different story.

I’ll ask you again. Are you saying vaccines aren’t good enough and that we’ll have to continue and maintain restrictions/ lockdowns indefinately in fear of cases rising and to keep delta controlled aswell as new variants popping up? Yes or no?

TonyMaloney

Micky 32 wrote: »

Are you on the PUP? You seem to have a lot of time desperately seeking hebrew sites scouring the net to get the best possible low figure stats you can find and post here from what you posted.

There’s a lot of conflicting evidence out there that tells a different story.

I’ll ask you again. Are you saying vaccines aren’t good enough and that we’ll have to continue and maintain restrictions/ lockdowns indefinately in fear of cases rising and to keep delta controlled aswell as new variants popping up? Yes or no?

I should probably ignore this given your bizarrely rude tone, but sure **** it.

No I'm not on the PUP and I never have been. I don't know what business it is of yours or what possible relevance it has to the delta variant.

There isn't a lot of conflicting data on the efficacy of the pfizer vax against delta.
I challenge you to find any.

As for your final question - no. No I'm not saying any of that nor have I

Micky 32

TonyMaloney wrote: »

I should probably ignore this given your bizarrely rude tone, but sure **** it.

No I'm not on the PUP and I never have been. I don't know what business it is of yours or what possible relevance it has to the delta variant.

There isn't a lot of conflicting data on the efficacy of the pfizer vax against delta.
I challenge you to find any.

As for your final question - no. No I'm not saying any of that nor have I

PHE study in the UK claim 88% for the pfizer vaccine 2 weeks after the second dose. There’s a lot of conflicting evidence out there.

I never said you did say any of that.

That’s why I’m asking you do you think we should keep the lockdowns and restrictions indefinately for the above reasons i listed? Yes or no?

Micky 32

https://www.google.ie/amp/s/amp.rte.ie/amp/1233083/

This will give Delta a run for it’s money head on. Great to see this being launched today. 18-34 year olds now can get vaccinated.

jakiah

Micky 32 wrote: »

https://www.google.ie/amp/s/amp.rte.ie/amp/1233083/

This will give Delta a run for it’s money head on. Great to see this being launched today. 18-34 year olds now can get vaccinated.

Cant open until the kids are vaccinated will be the next thing. Sure they are all in schools together all day.

ACitizenErased

Nearly 1000 less cases in Scotland today compared to last Monday. 2,372 today, 3,285 7 days ago.

OwenM

200k Janssen vaccinations this month... This is the one shot jab so the significance of this should not be underestimated given that recent data has shown high efficacy against Delta but also the velocity it imparts.

200k Janssen is the same as 400k mRNA.

Consider 200k mRNA doses given this month, you have a 28 day waiting period before the second dose and another 7 days before you can say the recipient is fully vaccinated.

The cohort receiving these vaccinations are not 'done' until end of the first week of September but the same cohort receiving Janssen are done end of second week of August. It's a massive boost. Another 4% of the population fully vaccinated that we hadn't expected, 6 weeks from now.

Bsharp

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Nearly 1000 less cases in Scotland today compared to last Monday. 2,372 today, 3,285 7 days ago.

Hopefully they stay that way so I can conclude, rightly or wrongly, that the big jump was associated with Italia 90 style festivities for the Euros. Anecdotally that's the case from our Glasgow and Edinburgh offices in work.

brickster69

Bsharp wrote: »

Hopefully they stay that way so I can conclude, rightly or wrongly, that the big jump was associated with Italia 90 style festivities for the Euros. Anecdotally that's the case from our Glasgow and Edinburgh offices in work.

Wales jumps a fair whack.

https://twitter.com/UKCovid19Stats/status/1412003834940035074