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The Delta variant

amandstu

How might this play out?

Apparently cases in England may be doubling every 4.5 days and resultant hospitalizations are said to be possibly between 2 and 3 times more likely that with the Alpha variant.

Only 1% prevalence here at the moment seemingly.

Back of envelope modeling in my sitting room is not reassuring and I am not near to getting my second AstraZeneca jab yet( so 30% protected against symptomatic disease?)

EDIT: Have been corrected in this thread that parts of England (not England as a whole) had cases doubling every 4.5 days

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[Deleted User]

Wolf359f wrote: »

It's interesting that the growth rates in the 75-84 are growing and will peak higher than any other age group. Are they all out down the bingo halls or something?
Only other thing could be nursing homes, but HCW's still wear proper PPE I'm sure?

Its growth rate, not case numbers. If there are a small number of cases in a cohort, a small change will give an apparent large growth rate.

In all likelihood, the older folks testing positive are contacts of confirmed cases in younger groups and are testing positive with no or mild symptoms

OwenM

TonyMaloney wrote: »

Because declining alpha cases are masking deltas growth.

We're not as open as the UK so you'd hope our rate of growth won't be as bad.
However we're quite a bit more open than Portugal.
Most of those poor bastards are back under curfew.

Where are you getting that?

https://www.visitportugal.com/en/content/covid-19-measures-implemented-portugal

- Restaurants, cafés, and pastry shops close at 1 am.
- Shops and shopping centres are open, without time restrictions.
- Cultural facilities close at 1 am. 50% capacity limit.
- Outdoor events possible with specific rules (check the event website for more info).
- Amateur sports and training events possible with specific rules (check the event website for more info). 33% capacity limit.
- Alcoholic beverages sale is prohibited in service areas or gas stations and, from 9 p.m., in shops including supermarkets
- Golf courses are fully operational.

TonyMaloney

OwenM wrote: »

Where are you getting that?

https://www.visitportugal.com/en/content/covid-19-measures-implemented-portugal

- Restaurants, cafés, and pastry shops close at 1 am.
- Shops and shopping centres are open, without time restrictions.
- Cultural facilities close at 1 am. 50% capacity limit.
- Outdoor events possible with specific rules (check the event website for more info).
- Amateur sports and training events possible with specific rules (check the event website for more info). 33% capacity limit.
- Alcoholic beverages sale is prohibited in service areas or gas stations and, from 9 p.m., in shops including supermarkets
- Golf courses are fully operational.

posted this yesterday

TonyMaloney wrote: »

Portugal has announced an 11pm curfew in 45 municipalities, including Porto and Lisbon, amid a rise in COVID cases.

The Portuguese government has ruled people will not be allowed in public spaces and should remain in their own homes between 11pm and 5am in those areas deemed "very high" or "high" risk.

The municipalities, the country's equivalent to local council areas, affected by the new restrictions will also see restaurants and cafes close at 10.30pm during the week and 3.30pm at the weekend and bank holidays.

The government also opted to maintain a restriction on travel to and from Lisbon Metropolitan Area (AML) between 3pm on 2 July and 6am on 5 July for those who do not have a certificate showing they have been vaccinated, recovered from COVID-19 or received a negative test.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/news.sky.com/story/amp/covid-19-portugal-announces-new-restrictions-including-curfew-in-45-areas-amid-rising-coronavirus-cases-12347196

niallo27

Well there we have it, opening until 11 during the week and 3.30 at the weekends is some how worse than not opening at all, I'm not sure what more you can say about that.

pc7

Fils wrote: »

The pup won’t last forever.

I’ve never been on it, have worked all the way through thank you.

TefalBrain

beaz2018 wrote: »

Why do the lockdown people love to downplay the level of restrictions here. Its really bizarre.

From my personal experience and from reading back on the main covid thread as far back as last April some people just love misery. I'm in no doubt a lot of these people are social outcasts and hermits and having the general population dragged down to that level pleases them.

Don't underestimate also that a lot are on the PUP payment and would love for that to last as long as possible so in that regards they rejoice at cases rising, deaths and score the internet for stories of variants and doom.

I suppose they call that a life and i'll leave them to it but don't expect the rest of us to live like that.

The fact Delta looks like a wet fart isn't going to help their moods.

FileNotFound

So the data from the Uk still showing no real increase in hospital cases despite the surge in case number?

TonyMaloney

FileNotFound wrote: »

So the data from the Uk still showing no real increase in hospital cases despite the surge in case number?

TefalBrain

FileNotFound wrote: »

So the data from the Uk still showing no real increase in hospital cases despite the surge in case number?

Sky News showed a chart last night confirming there are as many people getting infected now as the surge back in January, more actually with only a tiny tiny increase in hospitalisations. It's akin to the common cold to the under 40's basically.

The virus is beat. Only Irish laggards remain downbeat.

TonyMaloney

TefalBrain wrote: »

Sky News showed a chart last night confirming there are as many people getting infected now as the surge back in January, more actually with only a tiny tiny increase in hospitalisations. It's akin to the common cold to the under 40's basically.

The virus is beat. Only Irish laggards remain downbeat.

Eh, scroll up

FileNotFound

TonyMaloney wrote: »

Thats not too bad at all given case load.

Looking good.

gozunda

TefalBrain wrote: »

From my personal experience and from reading back on the main covid thread as far back as last April some people just love misery. I'm in no doubt a lot of these people are social outcasts and hermits and having the general population dragged down to that level pleases them.
Don't underestimate also that a lot are on the PUP payment and would love for that to last as long as possible so in that regards they rejoice at cases rising, deaths and score the internet for stories of variants and doom. I suppose they call that a life and i'll leave them to it but don't expect the rest of us to live like that.
The fact Delta looks like a wet fart isn't going to help their moods.

Seriously not more of this type of shyte? The anti covid restrictions thread is littered with this type of nonsense already.

Is it necessary to paint everyone you disagree with as "people just love misery" "people are social outcasts and hermits" "a lot are on the PUP payment" " rejoice at cases rising, deaths and score the internet for stories of variants and doom" and other nonsense?

We all could derail the thread and claim the same of those we don't agree with.

OwenM

TonyMaloney wrote: »

FileNotFound

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/uk-daily-new-covid-cases

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/uk-daily-covid-admissions

When you compare over the last year its looking very good at the moment.

Very positive for the near future.

TonyMaloney

I'm not a big fan of the stringency index, but...

gozunda

OwenM wrote: »

^^^

Zoomed in ...

FileNotFound

TonyMaloney wrote: »

I'm not a big fan of the stringency index, but...

Is this more modelling?

I think most are looking at factual data from the UK. After you posted the version that you hoped supported one view a few have posted the more comprehensive version.

Are you unwilling to accept the literal reality in which we live in favor of a potential unproven theoretical reality?

FileNotFound

gozunda wrote: »

^^^

Zoomed in ...

That old Zoom has been well used by some on here haha.

It is funny seeing people try and argue against reality isn't it..

Micky 32

TonyMaloney wrote: »

Eh, scroll up

Good to see that the top of your graph is at a turning point. The word from the UK is the virus is at a turning point. Check out Acitizen’s post.

TonyMaloney

Lads, if we see what's happening in Scotland replicated here we'll be in real trouble again.

The UK data does not support your argument. You should probably stop mentioning it every five minutes

Turtwig

gozunda wrote: »

Is it necessary to paint everyone you disagree with as "people just love misery" "people are social outcasts and hermits" "a lot are on the PUP payment" " rejoice at cases rising, deaths and score the internet for stories of variants and doom" and other nonsense?

Yes it is. That's far easier than accepting a complex nuanced discussion may mean people take a variety of stances for a variety of different reasons. Both of which may change over time. Much easier to be lazy and assume the world is a polarised black and white, than explore the murky depths of grey.

Micky 32

TonyMaloney wrote: »

Lads, if we see what's happening in Scotland replicated here we'll be in real trouble again.

The UK data does not support your argument. You should probably stop mentioning it every five minutes

Nah. You should google vaccines. You might learn something. We are vaccinating a million a month. Hide under your bed if you like. Make sure you stock up with toilet roll. I’ll constantly post any good news data every 5 mins if need be.

You’re hardly suggesting vaccines don’t work and we have to be in lockdown foreva now would you?

Wolf359f

TonyMaloney wrote: »

Lads, if we see what's happening in Scotland replicated here we'll be in real trouble again.

The UK data does not support your argument. You should probably stop mentioning it every five minutes

Portugal is probably the one to watch.
Their vaccination coverage is closer to ourselves and unlike the UK, their daily case numbers are still a fraction of peak, but hospital figures on a steeper rise compared to the UK.

Bit cynical

Seems to be a similar sort of disconnect happening between cases and numbers in hospital as with deaths in the UK. Numbers in hospital are rising but nowhere near what might be expected from the numbers of cases in previous waves.

In the chart below cases are in magenta and number in hospital in green.

Lyle

FileNotFound wrote: »

That old Zoom has been well used by some on here haha.

It is funny seeing people try and argue against reality isn't it..

How is zooming in on the longer graph to show what's happening for the last two/three months arguing against reality?? That zoomed in section is literally the reality of now, an uptick (not exponential / matching case growth) in England/UK hospitalisations, and a bit in Scotland. Wales and NI flat.

It's weird enough that some can't seem to acknowledge that there is growth in hospitalisations in the UK to the point that they're questioning reality.

FileNotFound

TonyMaloney wrote: »

Lads, if we see what's happening in Scotland replicated here we'll be in real trouble again.

The UK data does not support your argument. You should probably stop mentioning it every five minutes

Well it does support our discussion but really doesnt help yours.

We are now at 70/50 pretty much (adult population) - the UK was at slightly higher than this when it took off over there and have done very well since.

They have provided the roadmap, we only need walk it. Its a pretty basic concept to be fair, and the basis of most peoples discussion.

People are advocating for a careful continued reopening because we can mirror what has been done in our nearest neighbor. Not sure how you can call that irrelevant?

It might be best if you stop throwing up bits of graphs to be fair.

FileNotFound

Wolf359f wrote: »

Portugal is probably the one to watch.
Their vaccination coverage is closer to ourselves and unlike the UK, their daily case numbers are still a fraction of peak, but hospital figures on a steeper rise compared to the UK.

We are actually more in line with the UK reopening model.

People are looking for the continued safe reopening that was expected.

UK indoor dining has been on the go since 17 May i think. We are not comparing their % today v ours, more ours v theirs when they did X, Y and Z

Delta has been in the UK for quite some time now.

gozunda

FileNotFound wrote: »

That old Zoom has been well used by some on here haha.

It is funny seeing people try and argue against reality isn't it..

Well no. The devil is always in the detail ....

Bit cynical

Lyle wrote: »

How is zooming in on the longer graph to show what's happening for the last two/three months arguing against reality?? That zoomed in section is literally the reality of now, an uptick (not exponential / matching case growth) in England/UK hospitalisations, and a bit in Scotland. Wales and NI flat.

It's weird enough that some can't seem to acknowledge that there is growth in hospitalisations in the UK to the point that they're questioning reality.

However sometimes it is necessary to zoom out to provide context. Numbers might have risen by a certain factor over a period of time but a zoomed in graph may not show that it is still low by recent standards.

FileNotFound

Have people forgotten the reality that opening literally means higher cases and more people going to hospital?

I'm pretty sure every medical expert everywhere has warned us that there will be direct rises as we reduce restrictions.

Is the question not whether they are manageable or not? Or are we trying for zero covid now?