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The Delta variant

amandstu

How might this play out?

Apparently cases in England may be doubling every 4.5 days and resultant hospitalizations are said to be possibly between 2 and 3 times more likely that with the Alpha variant.

Only 1% prevalence here at the moment seemingly.

Back of envelope modeling in my sitting room is not reassuring and I am not near to getting my second AstraZeneca jab yet( so 30% protected against symptomatic disease?)

EDIT: Have been corrected in this thread that parts of England (not England as a whole) had cases doubling every 4.5 days

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Happydays2020

https://twitter.com/curates_egg/status/1411392100269236225?s=21

Interesting that others measure more closely hospitalisations rather than cases.

My view remains that the delay in reopening is the correct one. 2/3 weeks will make a massive difference on vaccinations. Probably all 40 plus fully vaccinated in three weeks time.

is_that_so

Fils wrote: »

The money tap will never be turned off. The pup will be there till 2023 at least.

Is that a guess or has someone said it? - September/October is about as long as they have planned. We can't afford it nor the income supports for all that much longer. At this stage Paschal will already be looking at tax increases.

Fils

is_that_so wrote: »

This really is a very simplistic view of everything. We are now at the point where economics meets disease and the money tap will be turned off soon enough. More caution ignores the potential problems all of this stores up for the economy and that is not in NPHET modelling.

The money tap will never be turned off. The pup will be there till 2023 at least.

is_that_so

wadacrack wrote: »

We have moved on to some extent , we can do most things. People on here are acting like we are still having severe restrictions.

The rationale thing to do is to be cautious until the vast majority are vaccinated.

I cant think of anything worse than opening up too early and having to bring in retrictions. It happened in Chile and Russia recently.
The issue is getting overwhelmed again.

In real life people are enjoying the summer and don't care about indoor dining. Its fine outdoors

This really is a very simplistic view of everything. We are now at the point where economics meets disease and the money tap will be turned off soon enough. More caution ignores the potential problems all of this stores up for the economy and that is not in NPHET modelling.

[Deleted User]

Leftwaffe wrote: »

Can anyone explain to me how the UK is going to drop masks and social distancing on July 19th when this variant is supposedly going to cause carnage?

It’s not going to close carnage. I’m in the UK currently and people are just not bothered any more.

With most vulnerable people vaccinated and additional, uncounted immunity in the recovered, the majority of people are only risking a bad cold for a couple of weeks, and some percentage will get long COVID. Ivermectin shows promise for treating both and trials are ongoing in the UK.

Things are pretty optimistic here. It’s the strangest thing to log on to boards and see some Irish people talking about how the complete decimation of the hospitality sector is grand sure. And I wasn’t wanting to eat in a restaurant today anyway.

TefalBrain

wadacrack wrote: »

We have moved on to some extent , we can do most things. People on here are acting like we are still having severe restrictions.

The rationale thing to do is to be cautious until the vast majority are vaccinated.

I cant think of anything worse than opening up too early and having to bring in retrictions. It happened in Chile and Russia recently.
The issue is getting overwhelmed again.

In real life people are enjoying the summer and don't care about indoor dining. Its fine outdoors

You think being unable to eat indoors or having to pay a 2k euro fine for leaving the country isn't severe restrictions?

Leftwaffe

Can anyone explain to me how the UK is going to drop masks and social distancing on July 19th when this variant is supposedly going to cause carnage?

joseywhales

Woody79 wrote: »

Who was the lad on bbc worldnews that though delta was less deadly.

I agree with him, but wouldnt mind listening to him or reading what he has to say.

Plenty on here would say delta is the new ebola.

I'm all vaccinated, no underlying, not overweight and in my early 40's.

Last 15 months banj**** my mental health.

Need to move on and get back out there.

We cant lockdown forever.

You should see the booming marijuana trade in the states during the pandemic. Pounds of the stuff sold daily.

Lumen

Mimon wrote: »

Exactly, some of the people on the moan probably never darken the door of a restaurant normally.

Only thing now that I'm missing is a big night out, nightclub, gig etc which I will just have to be patient and it's hardly traumatising to be missing out on.

There are 228,000 people on the PUP.

Mimon

6 wrote: »

It's bizarre how people still talk about lockdowns, and heavy restrictions. The country is almost fully opened up. Yes, you can't indoor dine and have pints inside. Hardly severe restrictions.

The days of lockdowns and severe restrictions are well behind us.

Exactly, some of the people on the moan probably never darken the door of a restaurant normally.

Only thing now that I'm missing is a big night out, nightclub, gig etc which I will just have to be patient and it's hardly traumatising to be missing out on.

Klonker

6 wrote: »

It's bizarre how people still talk about lockdowns, and heavy restrictions. The country is almost fully opened up. Yes, you can't indoor dine and have pints inside. Hardly severe restrictions.

The days of lockdowns and severe restrictions are well behind us.

Not really the thread for this really but since you brought it up.

I'm sure publicans in Dublin who haven't been able to open since March last year would disagree with you.

Also not sure why when Ireland has probably the highest vaccine take up in vulnerable groups, the youngest population in Europe and a very complaint nation in terms of restrictions that we need to be the only country in Europe with indoor dining closed which will continued to be closed until 19th July at the earliest. On top of that when it does open the proposal is a vaccine cert pass for only vaccinated, a system stricter than the systems than any other country in Europe too.

So the question shouldn't be why are some people complaining about restrictions when we only have a few left, it should be why is everybody else not complaining about the rest of the restrictions we do have in place and why are they just accepting this.

[Deleted User]

wadacrack wrote: »

We have moved on to some extent , we can do most things. People on here are acting like we are still having severe restrictions.

The rationale thing to do is to be cautious until the vast majority are vaccinated.

I cant think of anything worse than opening up too early and having to bring in retrictions. It happened in Chile and Russia recently.
The issue is getting overwhelmed again.

In real life people are enjoying the summer and don't care about indoor dining. Its fine outdoors

It's bizarre how people still talk about lockdowns, and heavy restrictions. The country is almost fully opened up. Yes, you can't indoor dine and have pints inside. Hardly severe restrictions.

The days of lockdowns and severe restrictions are well behind us.

je551e

Sorry if asked already but how is the delta variant for children ?

Micky 32

Supercell wrote: »

This guy is a bit of a sensationalist, but facts are facts, he's been a bit of a canary in the coal mine all throughout this.

https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1410827940624015364?s=20

Yup facts are facts:

https://twitter.com/theeliklein/status/1411331958827798529?s=21

ZX7R

wadacrack wrote: »

We have moved on to some extent , we can do most things. People on here are acting like we are still having severe restrictions.

The rationale thing to do is to be cautious until the vast majority are vaccinated.

I cant think of anything worse than opening up too early and having to bring in retrictions. It happened in Chile and Russia recently.
The issue is getting overwhelmed again.

In real life people are enjoying the summer and don't care about indoor dining. Its fine outdoors

To be honest ,Ireland hasn't moved on ,you opened up a little,
Here in Poland were living pretty much as before covid.
Yes uptake in vaccinations have slowed but over 50% will be vaccinated by months end.
There is no restrictions on who or how many visit your home, you can eat drink indoors if you choose,
If I was to marry in the morning I could have 200 guests or more if vaccinated.
If I die in the morning the church can be prity much full if people wished to attend.
There is a party in the local park this weekend, no pods or the such.
At least 800 expected to attend.
I could go on and on how open it is compared to Ireland, but I won't, why because I really feel sorry for the majority of people living in Ireland at the moment.
Now I'm no idiot our wave due to delta is expected in the second week in August, but if restrictions are to be introduced it will be based on hospital numbers only.
And the extension of having to wear a mask indoors for longer.

[Deleted User]

wadacrack wrote: »

We have moved on to some extent , we can do most things. People on here are acting like we are still having severe restrictions.

The rationale thing to do is to be cautious until the vast majority are vaccinated.

I cant think of anything worse than opening up too early and having to bring in retrictions. It happened in Chile and Russia recently.
The issue is getting overwhelmed again.

In real life people are enjoying the summer and don't care about indoor dining. Its fine outdoors

Just frustration on my part.

Things are improving with regards many restrictions.

Our caution has probably saved some lives compared to UK.

Once the herd is protected through vaccination life will return to near normal.

wadacrack

Woody79 wrote: »

Who was the lad on bbc worldnews that though delta was less deadly.

I agree with him, but wouldnt mind listening to him or reading what he has to say.

Plenty on here would say delta is the new ebola.

I'm all vaccinated, no underlying, not overweight and in my early 40's.

Last 15 months banj**** my mental health.

Need to move on and get back out there.

We cant lockdown forever.

We have moved on to some extent , we can do most things. People on here are acting like we are still having severe restrictions.

The rationale thing to do is to be cautious until the vast majority are vaccinated.

I cant think of anything worse than opening up too early and having to bring in retrictions. It happened in Chile and Russia recently.
The issue is getting overwhelmed again.

In real life people are enjoying the summer and don't care about indoor dining. Its fine outdoors

TefalBrain

Woody79 wrote: »

Who was the lad on bbc worldnews that though delta was less deadly.

I agree with him, but wouldnt mind listening to him or reading what he has to say.

Plenty on here would say delta is the new ebola.

I'm all vaccinated, no underlying, not overweight and in my early 40's.

Last 15 months banj**** my mental health.

Need to move on and get back out there.

We cant lockdown forever.

No idea could be on the player though. I listen to BBC World when working as can't bare Irish medias take on things anymore.

[Deleted User]

TefalBrain wrote: »

We are in a great place right now. Miniscule numbers in hospital and next to no deaths.

Who was the lad on bbc worldnews that though delta was less deadly.

I agree with him, but wouldnt mind listening to him or reading what he has to say.

Plenty on here would say delta is the new ebola.

I'm all vaccinated, no underlying, not overweight and in my early 40's.

Last 15 months banj**** my mental health.

Need to move on and get back out there.

We cant lockdown forever.

TefalBrain

Woody79 wrote: »

As someone told me recently, the vaccines declaw this virus and turn it into the 4 other coronaviruses (common colds). UK down to 0.3% mortality. UK and Ireland will be in a great place come September.

We are in a great place right now. Miniscule numbers in hospital and next to no deaths.

[Deleted User]

Tyrone212 wrote: »

There's no direct flights between Ireland and India. The UK added Pakistan and Bangladesh the same day and left out India as Boris was heading there for a brexit trade deal.

There no direct flights from Haiti, Eritrea or Indonesia either, but they have just been put on the list of mandatory hotel quarantine.

Tyrone212

Aegir wrote: »

The uk implemented mandatory hotel quarantine before any other major European country and a week before Ireland.

There's no direct flights between Ireland and India. The UK added Pakistan and Bangladesh the same day and left out India as Boris was heading there for a brexit trade deal.

Then they eventually they added India the red list 3 weeks later. Over 20k landed in the UK in those 3 weeks from India trying to avoid the MHQ. They f up. Lets be honest for once.

[Deleted User]

beggars_bush wrote: »

They failed to implement quarantine for travellers from India

The uk implemented mandatory hotel quarantine before any other major European country and a week before Ireland.

FishOnABike

[Deleted User] wrote: »

I thought all the variants start in Greece now.

[Deleted User]

Lumen wrote: »

It's funny how we had several systems of objective nomenclature for variants until someone decided that it would be better to name them with Greek letters to avoid xenophobia, and now we have "Nepal mutation of the Delta variant".

Come back Pango, all is forgiven. :pac:

I thought all the variants start in Greece now.

[Deleted User]

Ballynally wrote: »

not only that, deaths in fully vaccinated people under 50 in the UK w Delta:..0 (yes, you read that right).

As someone told me recently, the vaccines declaw this virus and turn it into the 4 other coronaviruses (common colds). UK down to 0.3% mortality. UK and Ireland will be in a great place come September.

Bit cynical

Some charts of for the UK.

This first one shows cases (in dotted line) rescaled and superimposed on top of deaths over the course of the pandemic.

What we see from the above is that the usual pattern of deaths following cases by about two or three weeks no longer applies. There has been a rise in deaths but it is nowhere near as severe as in previous waves and it is lagging behind cases by a lot more than two weeks.

The second chart shows UK deaths per capita in an EU context.

Again we see a rise in deaths in the last couple of weeks but again, it is still very low by European standards.

davemckenna25

Ballynally wrote: »

not only that, deaths in fully vaccinated people under 50 in the UK w Delta:..0 (yes, you read that right).

And what percentage of people under the age of 50 are fully vaccinated?

Or just a figure of the numbers under 50 fully vaccinated?

brickster69

Some UK sequencing Data

https://twitter.com/CorinneReverbel/status/1410977367015710723

Ballynally

Woody79 wrote: »

I agree no mixed bag, over 90% hospital prevention is excellent.

not only that, deaths in fully vaccinated people under 50 in the UK w Delta:..0 (yes, you read that right).