The Delta variant

wadacrack wrote: »

We have moved on to some extent , we can do most things. People on here are acting like we are still having severe restrictions.

The rationale thing to do is to be cautious until the vast majority are vaccinated.

I cant think of anything worse than opening up too early and having to bring in retrictions. It happened in Chile and Russia recently.
The issue is getting overwhelmed again.

In real life people are enjoying the summer and don't care about indoor dining. Its fine outdoors

Just frustration on my part.

Things are improving with regards many restrictions.

Our caution has probably saved some lives compared to UK.

Once the herd is protected through vaccination life will return to near normal.

ZX7R

wadacrack wrote: »

We have moved on to some extent , we can do most things. People on here are acting like we are still having severe restrictions.

The rationale thing to do is to be cautious until the vast majority are vaccinated.

I cant think of anything worse than opening up too early and having to bring in retrictions. It happened in Chile and Russia recently.
The issue is getting overwhelmed again.

In real life people are enjoying the summer and don't care about indoor dining. Its fine outdoors

To be honest ,Ireland hasn't moved on ,you opened up a little,
Here in Poland were living pretty much as before covid.
Yes uptake in vaccinations have slowed but over 50% will be vaccinated by months end.
There is no restrictions on who or how many visit your home, you can eat drink indoors if you choose,
If I was to marry in the morning I could have 200 guests or more if vaccinated.
If I die in the morning the church can be prity much full if people wished to attend.
There is a party in the local park this weekend, no pods or the such.
At least 800 expected to attend.
I could go on and on how open it is compared to Ireland, but I won't, why because I really feel sorry for the majority of people living in Ireland at the moment.
Now I'm no idiot our wave due to delta is expected in the second week in August, but if restrictions are to be introduced it will be based on hospital numbers only.
And the extension of having to wear a mask indoors for longer.

Micky 32

Supercell wrote: »

This guy is a bit of a sensationalist, but facts are facts, he's been a bit of a canary in the coal mine all throughout this.

https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1410827940624015364?s=20

Yup facts are facts:

https://twitter.com/theeliklein/status/1411331958827798529?s=21

je551e

Sorry if asked already but how is the delta variant for children ?

wadacrack wrote: »

We have moved on to some extent , we can do most things. People on here are acting like we are still having severe restrictions.

The rationale thing to do is to be cautious until the vast majority are vaccinated.

I cant think of anything worse than opening up too early and having to bring in retrictions. It happened in Chile and Russia recently.
The issue is getting overwhelmed again.

In real life people are enjoying the summer and don't care about indoor dining. Its fine outdoors

It's bizarre how people still talk about lockdowns, and heavy restrictions. The country is almost fully opened up. Yes, you can't indoor dine and have pints inside. Hardly severe restrictions.

The days of lockdowns and severe restrictions are well behind us.

Klonker

6 wrote: »

It's bizarre how people still talk about lockdowns, and heavy restrictions. The country is almost fully opened up. Yes, you can't indoor dine and have pints inside. Hardly severe restrictions.

The days of lockdowns and severe restrictions are well behind us.

Not really the thread for this really but since you brought it up.

I'm sure publicans in Dublin who haven't been able to open since March last year would disagree with you.

Also not sure why when Ireland has probably the highest vaccine take up in vulnerable groups, the youngest population in Europe and a very complaint nation in terms of restrictions that we need to be the only country in Europe with indoor dining closed which will continued to be closed until 19th July at the earliest. On top of that when it does open the proposal is a vaccine cert pass for only vaccinated, a system stricter than the systems than any other country in Europe too.

So the question shouldn't be why are some people complaining about restrictions when we only have a few left, it should be why is everybody else not complaining about the rest of the restrictions we do have in place and why are they just accepting this.

Mimon

6 wrote: »

It's bizarre how people still talk about lockdowns, and heavy restrictions. The country is almost fully opened up. Yes, you can't indoor dine and have pints inside. Hardly severe restrictions.

The days of lockdowns and severe restrictions are well behind us.

Exactly, some of the people on the moan probably never darken the door of a restaurant normally.

Only thing now that I'm missing is a big night out, nightclub, gig etc which I will just have to be patient and it's hardly traumatising to be missing out on.

Mimon wrote: »

Exactly, some of the people on the moan probably never darken the door of a restaurant normally.

Only thing now that I'm missing is a big night out, nightclub, gig etc which I will just have to be patient and it's hardly traumatising to be missing out on.

There are 228,000 people on the PUP.

joseywhales

Woody79 wrote: »

Who was the lad on bbc worldnews that though delta was less deadly.

I agree with him, but wouldnt mind listening to him or reading what he has to say.

Plenty on here would say delta is the new ebola.

I'm all vaccinated, no underlying, not overweight and in my early 40's.

Last 15 months banj**** my mental health.

Need to move on and get back out there.

We cant lockdown forever.

You should see the booming marijuana trade in the states during the pandemic. Pounds of the stuff sold daily.

Leftwaffe

Can anyone explain to me how the UK is going to drop masks and social distancing on July 19th when this variant is supposedly going to cause carnage?

TefalBrain

wadacrack wrote: »

We have moved on to some extent , we can do most things. People on here are acting like we are still having severe restrictions.

The rationale thing to do is to be cautious until the vast majority are vaccinated.

I cant think of anything worse than opening up too early and having to bring in retrictions. It happened in Chile and Russia recently.
The issue is getting overwhelmed again.

In real life people are enjoying the summer and don't care about indoor dining. Its fine outdoors

You think being unable to eat indoors or having to pay a 2k euro fine for leaving the country isn't severe restrictions?

Leftwaffe wrote: »

Can anyone explain to me how the UK is going to drop masks and social distancing on July 19th when this variant is supposedly going to cause carnage?

It’s not going to close carnage. I’m in the UK currently and people are just not bothered any more.

With most vulnerable people vaccinated and additional, uncounted immunity in the recovered, the majority of people are only risking a bad cold for a couple of weeks, and some percentage will get long COVID. Ivermectin shows promise for treating both and trials are ongoing in the UK.

Things are pretty optimistic here. It’s the strangest thing to log on to boards and see some Irish people talking about how the complete decimation of the hospitality sector is grand sure. And I wasn’t wanting to eat in a restaurant today anyway.

wadacrack wrote: »

We have moved on to some extent , we can do most things. People on here are acting like we are still having severe restrictions.

The rationale thing to do is to be cautious until the vast majority are vaccinated.

I cant think of anything worse than opening up too early and having to bring in retrictions. It happened in Chile and Russia recently.
The issue is getting overwhelmed again.

In real life people are enjoying the summer and don't care about indoor dining. Its fine outdoors

This really is a very simplistic view of everything. We are now at the point where economics meets disease and the money tap will be turned off soon enough. More caution ignores the potential problems all of this stores up for the economy and that is not in NPHET modelling.

Fils

is_that_so wrote: »

This really is a very simplistic view of everything. We are now at the point where economics meets disease and the money tap will be turned off soon enough. More caution ignores the potential problems all of this stores up for the economy and that is not in NPHET modelling.

The money tap will never be turned off. The pup will be there till 2023 at least.

Fils wrote: »

The money tap will never be turned off. The pup will be there till 2023 at least.

Is that a guess or has someone said it? - September/October is about as long as they have planned. We can't afford it nor the income supports for all that much longer. At this stage Paschal will already be looking at tax increases.

Happydays2020

https://twitter.com/curates_egg/status/1411392100269236225?s=21

Interesting that others measure more closely hospitalisations rather than cases.

My view remains that the delay in reopening is the correct one. 2/3 weeks will make a massive difference on vaccinations. Probably all 40 plus fully vaccinated in three weeks time.

Happydays2020 wrote: »

https://twitter.com/curates_egg/status/1411392100269236225?s=21

Interesting that others measure more closely hospitalisations rather than cases.

My view remains that the delay in reopening is the correct one. 2/3 weeks will make a massive difference on vaccinations. Probably all 40 plus fully vaccinated in three weeks time.

NPHET have not yet accepted that the link between hospitalisations and cases may have been broken. Our approach is informed by data only and not even our own data, that of a neighbouring country!

[Deleted User] wrote: »

It’s not going to close carnage. I’m in the UK currently and people are just not bothered any more.

With most vulnerable people vaccinated and additional, uncounted immunity in the recovered, the majority of people are only risking a bad cold for a couple of weeks, and some percentage will get long COVID. Ivermectin shows promise for treating both and trials are ongoing in the UK.

Things are pretty optimistic here. It’s the strangest thing to log on to boards and see some Irish people talking about how the complete decimation of the hospitality sector is grand sure. And I wasn’t wanting to eat in a restaurant today anyway.

My family and friends are mainly in England, they pretty much echo what you’ve said here. It’s not that they don’t care but they have basically accepted it’s not going anywhere so you have to get in with it. Receiving messages from my mates all carrying on like normal with a few beers or going to the football is hard going I have to say, at some point we have to move on here too!!!

Lumen on 11 June wrote: »

https://www.irishexaminer.com/world/arid-40311416.html

Let's take the average growth rate estimate to be a doubling every 8 days.

1% of 350 cases a day is 3.5 cases/day.
3.5 cases a day doubling every 8 days (which is not here) means 1,000 cases per day in....65 days, around mid-August.

Even at 1,000 cases/day your chance of being one of those cases is 1 in 5,000 per day.

That's pretty much a worse case scenario.

The UK currently has around 42% of the total population fully vaccinated.

By the end of July we will have around 52% of the total population fully vaccinated.

Unless there is a massive seeding from GB/NI, we are likely to snuff out the growth with our vaccination programme before the delta variant becomes a major risk.

I wouldn't lose any sleep over it. Continue to follow public health advice appropriate to your incomplete vaccination status and you'll be fine.

EMERGENCY SITUATION UPDATE KLAXXON!!!!

Our 7-day average daily cases has risen 327 -> 403 in 23 days, which is 0.9% increase per day.

If this terrifying exponential growth continues our cases will double to 800 cases/day in 78 days!

At 1.6% hospitalisation rate that's health-service-shattering 13 admissions a day!

However, in the same period we've administered around 1.25m vaccine doses, so we'll probably run out of eligible adults in half that time.

Ah well. Something something abundance of caution.

TonyMaloney

Lumen wrote: »

EMERGENCY SITUATION UPDATE KLAXXON!!!!

Our 7-day average daily cases has risen 327 -> 403 in 23 days, which is 0.9% increase per day.

If this terrifying exponential growth continues our cases will double to 800 cases/day in 78 days!

At 1.6% hospitalisation rate that's health-service-shattering 13 admissions a day!

However, in the same period we've administered around 1.25m vaccine doses, so we'll probably run out of eligible adults in half that time.

Ah well. Something something abundance of caution.

Lumen, I've made many projections using our case numbers over the last 18 months or so.
I wouldn't bother at the moment though, as our cases are a count of primarily two variants - one which is in decline and one which is growing.

I won't put a number on it because I can't, but our doubling time will be closer to the UK or Portugal once alpha is gone.

We could easily see 800 cases per day within the next fortnight

TonyMaloney wrote: »

Lumen, I've made many projections using our case numbers over the last 18 months or so.
I wouldn't bother at the moment though, as our cases are a count of primarily two variants - one which is in decline and one which is growing.

I won't put a number on it because I can't, but our doubling time will be closer to the UK or Portugal once alpha is gone.

We could easily see 800 cases per day within the next fortnight

Gascun says we're at 70% delta now (will confirm tomorrow). And those numbers are surely delayed due to the amount of time it takes to do the sequencing.

With that amount of delta we surely would have seen a significant jump already?

I can't find a reference but I'm sure I read somewhere that Dublin delta % was higher than elsewhere in the country, but this is the chart for Dublin from the latest epidemiology report.

The rise looks very mild, with doubling every 4 weeks.

Micky 32

TonyMaloney wrote: »

We could easily see 800 cases per day within the next fortnight

You know for the first time since this shyte started i don’t care if there’s going to be 800 cases a day. It’s getting tiring now. I’m not that neurotic. I’m not even afraid of getting Covid 19 anymore. I’m fully vaxxed for a start and so are all my family ( ederly parents etc) and everyone else i know that’s old. On my travels around Ireland most old folk and vulnerable i meet are all vaxxed too. The ones i know waiting for their second jab are getting done this week or next.

We are now jabbing closes to 1 million people a month. Yes the cases are rising mainly due to things opening up the last month. That was expected and will probably continue to do so for another month or so regardless of the Delta or Loompaland variant.

I’ll be heading to France in September for a road trip and then the US in October to see family. If it’s a thing i can’t go for whatever reason all is changeable without additional costs. At least i’m cautiously planning the future instead of moping around and posting on forums all day that we’re gonna have a trillion cases next week and we’re all doomed lock us down foreva.

Of course I’ll continue to be cautious. Mask wearing etc and hygeine don’t bother me and i’m happy to keep practicing it for another while.

We have to at least try to move on from this because certain posters on these forums think we should plan for indefinite restrictions and lockdowns to keep cases down and are happy to do so which to be honest is disturbing. The landscape is totally different than 2020.

Micky 32 wrote: »

You know for the first time since this shyte started i don’t care if there’s going to be 800 cases a day.

But even if we do care about cases, it's one thing to care about cases in Ireland, but the current situation is that we're basing policy on the rise in cases in other countries, and furthermore the subset of countries that have the worst performance.

It looks like fishing for fear.

We know that vaccines work, we have good supplies and are rolling them out fast, there has to come a point where abundance of caution becomes excess of caution, and I'm dating that point to right now.

Turtwig

Aegir wrote: »

There no direct flights from Haiti, Eritrea or Indonesia either, but they have just been put on the list of mandatory hotel quarantine.

In your opinion were the UK late at implementation of mhq to arrivals from India?

Bit cynical

Appears to be a similar disconnect in Portugal as UK between case numbers and deaths despite being a couple of months behind UK in vaccine shots.

Chart below shows UK in blue and Portugal in orange. Thin dotted lines are case numbers and thicker lines are deaths. Deaths and case numbers are rescaled individually and superimposed.

Portugal, despite being behind the UK in vaccinations, is showing a similar pattern with rising cases but not a corresponding rise in deaths. Deaths in both countries are rising but nowhere near what we would expect given level of cases in previous waves.

Danzy

The Indian variant is a problem, highly transmissible but the reality is that mass vaccination has taken the sting out of it.

Danzy wrote: »

The Indian variant is a problem, highly transmissible but the reality is that mass vaccination has taken the sting out of it.

But NPHET using UK data as a model has added that sting back in!

TonyMaloney

Lumen wrote: »

Gascun says we're at 70% delta now (will confirm tomorrow). And those numbers are surely delayed due to the amount of time it takes to do the sequencing.

With that amount of delta we surely would have seen a significant jump already?

I can't find a reference but I'm sure I read somewhere that Dublin delta % was higher than elsewhere in the country, but this is the chart for Dublin from the latest epidemiology report.

The rise looks very mild, with doubling every 4 weeks.

The following chart is using very vague data from this article
https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-40327265.html

The numbers given are vague, the dates are vague - so this chart is pretty vague too, but gives a decent idea of what's going on beneath the surface.
It looks like we're about to enter a phase of real growth, having being pretty flat for months.

I wouldn't bother making any sort of projections with the data available, but I can very confidently say that your own projection of 800 cases per day in 78 days is way off.

We'll be seeing in four digit daily numbers before too long

MerlinSouthDub

TonyMaloney wrote: »

We'll be seeing in four digit daily numbers before too long

Agreed, we absolutely will. Look at Scotland with 3000 cases a day. But the good news is, it really won't matter. We can have all adults with one dose by end of July. 90%+ reduction in hospitalisations with one dose of Pfizer even for the Delta variant.