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The Delta variant

amandstu

How might this play out?

Apparently cases in England may be doubling every 4.5 days and resultant hospitalizations are said to be possibly between 2 and 3 times more likely that with the Alpha variant.

Only 1% prevalence here at the moment seemingly.

Back of envelope modeling in my sitting room is not reassuring and I am not near to getting my second AstraZeneca jab yet( so 30% protected against symptomatic disease?)

EDIT: Have been corrected in this thread that parts of England (not England as a whole) had cases doubling every 4.5 days

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Wolf359f

TefalBrain wrote: »

Exactly the point an expert was making on BBC world radio yesterday.

Covid is spreading more but it's less deadly now than any stage since this started.

We'll laugh when we look back in a years time at how cautious we are today in Ireland. The rest of Europe has figured out this is no more than a bad cold for the unvaccinated at this stage.

You need to rephrase that, Covid is just as deadly, however due to vaccines the risk at a population level is reduced. Risk on an individual level for an unvaccinated person seems to be the same.

If we had Delta in all previous waves, would it have been just a head cold for the unvaccinated?

speckle

Unicorn Milk Latte wrote: »

The original Wuhan strain actually never made it to Ireland. I assume you're referring to the prevalent strains at the time.

There was one sequenced case very early on in the southwest(afaicr) when we were doing very little sequencing from the presumed country of origin. This was on nextstrain.org then seemed to dissappear for awhile and was then reinstated. Has it dissapeared again?

Micky 32

https://twitter.com/jamesward73/status/1410995341567184896?s=21

[Deleted User]

Wolf359f wrote: »

You need to rephrase that, Covid is just as deadly, however due to vaccines the risk at a population level is reduced. Risk on an individual level for an unvaccinated person seems to be the same.

If we had Delta in all previous waves, would it have been just a head cold for the unvaccinated?

Pure scutter.

[Deleted User]

Unicorn Milk Latte wrote: »

The original Wuhan [URL="https://nextstrain.org/ncov/global"]strain[/URL] actually never made it to Ireland. I assume you're referring to the prevalent strains at the time.

In the earliest days, nobody knew how to treat Covid. Only half a year later - completely different situation, as there were better and more effective treatment methods in hospitals. This brought down the mortality significantly.

It was essentially the Wuhan strain, similar R rate 2-3.

I dont think treatment has really improved much tbh.

Your immune system gets the better of this virus or it does'nt.

Wolf359f

Woody79 wrote: »

Pure scutter.

Have you anything to add or just insults?

[Deleted User]

Wolf359f wrote: »

Have you anything to add or just insults?

Your just so negative.......................

Wolf359f

Woody79 wrote: »

Your just so negative.......................

You're saying the Delta variant is not as serious as the Alpha variant. Or that the Delta variant causes less serious illness than Alpha without proving proof.

You only provide data on vaccine efficancy vs Delta, that doesn't show Delta causes less serious illness, just that vaccines work. To the unvaccinated, those who can't, or those immune suppressed, vaccine efficiency means **** all.

It's like 2 police officers going out on duty, one wears full body amour, the other can't. A 9mm round to the chest is less lethal to one, but causes serious illness and perhaps deaths to the other. In your eyes, being shot is nothing more than a punch in the gut, but for some it's a little more serious than that.

beggars_bush

The only reason the Delta variant is causing less deaths and hospitalisations is due to vaccination rate in older population

However as cases increase then its probable that hospital admissions will increase and so too those in ICU.

We're the only country in EU with land border with the UK where Delta is rampant.
Lots of NI and UK tourists all over the ROI on holidays

Fils

beggars_bush wrote: »

The only reason the Delta variant is causing less deaths and hospitalisations is due to vaccination rate in older population

However as cases increase then its probable that hospital admissions will increase and so too those in ICU.

We're the only country in EU with land border with the UK where Delta is rampant.
Lots of NI and UK tourists all over the ROI on holidays

You shouldn’t be blaming the British at all it originated from India.

Nozebleed

Fils wrote: »

You shouldn’t be blaming the British at all it originated from India.

the blame lies at the feet of your local TD who continuously kept the airport open.

Fils

Nozebleed wrote: »

the blame lies at the feet of your local TD who continuously kept the airport open.

He is on murder charge next week actually for it.

beggars_bush

Fils wrote: »

You shouldn’t be blaming the British at all it originated from India.

They failed to implement quarantine for travellers from India

brickster69

Delta plus seems to be in the majority in some places now.

https://twitter.com/MartinS11071824/status/1411190532932517890

Mimon

beggars_bush wrote: »

The only reason the Delta variant is causing less deaths and hospitalisations is due to vaccination rate in older population

However as cases increase then its probable that hospital admissions will increase and so too those in ICU.

We're the only country in EU with land border with the UK where Delta is rampant.
Lots of NI and UK tourists all over the ROI on holidays

Delta is already 70% of cases here as of yesterday.

Lumen

It's funny how we had several systems of objective nomenclature for variants until someone decided that it would be better to name them with Greek letters to avoid xenophobia, and now we have "Nepal mutation of the Delta variant".

Come back Pango, all is forgiven. :pac:

Ballynally

Woody79 wrote: »

I agree no mixed bag, over 90% hospital prevention is excellent.

not only that, deaths in fully vaccinated people under 50 in the UK w Delta:..0 (yes, you read that right).

brickster69

Some UK sequencing Data

https://twitter.com/CorinneReverbel/status/1410977367015710723

davemckenna25

Ballynally wrote: »

not only that, deaths in fully vaccinated people under 50 in the UK w Delta:..0 (yes, you read that right).

And what percentage of people under the age of 50 are fully vaccinated?

Or just a figure of the numbers under 50 fully vaccinated?

Bit cynical

Some charts of for the UK.

This first one shows cases (in dotted line) rescaled and superimposed on top of deaths over the course of the pandemic.

What we see from the above is that the usual pattern of deaths following cases by about two or three weeks no longer applies. There has been a rise in deaths but it is nowhere near as severe as in previous waves and it is lagging behind cases by a lot more than two weeks.

The second chart shows UK deaths per capita in an EU context.

Again we see a rise in deaths in the last couple of weeks but again, it is still very low by European standards.

[Deleted User]

Ballynally wrote: »

not only that, deaths in fully vaccinated people under 50 in the UK w Delta:..0 (yes, you read that right).

As someone told me recently, the vaccines declaw this virus and turn it into the 4 other coronaviruses (common colds). UK down to 0.3% mortality. UK and Ireland will be in a great place come September.

[Deleted User]

Lumen wrote: »

It's funny how we had several systems of objective nomenclature for variants until someone decided that it would be better to name them with Greek letters to avoid xenophobia, and now we have "Nepal mutation of the Delta variant".

Come back Pango, all is forgiven. :pac:

I thought all the variants start in Greece now.

FishOnABike

[Deleted User] wrote: »

I thought all the variants start in Greece now.

[Deleted User]

beggars_bush wrote: »

They failed to implement quarantine for travellers from India

The uk implemented mandatory hotel quarantine before any other major European country and a week before Ireland.

Tyrone212

Aegir wrote: »

The uk implemented mandatory hotel quarantine before any other major European country and a week before Ireland.

There's no direct flights between Ireland and India. The UK added Pakistan and Bangladesh the same day and left out India as Boris was heading there for a brexit trade deal.

Then they eventually they added India the red list 3 weeks later. Over 20k landed in the UK in those 3 weeks from India trying to avoid the MHQ. They f up. Lets be honest for once.

[Deleted User]

Tyrone212 wrote: »

There's no direct flights between Ireland and India. The UK added Pakistan and Bangladesh the same day and left out India as Boris was heading there for a brexit trade deal.

There no direct flights from Haiti, Eritrea or Indonesia either, but they have just been put on the list of mandatory hotel quarantine.

TefalBrain

Woody79 wrote: »

As someone told me recently, the vaccines declaw this virus and turn it into the 4 other coronaviruses (common colds). UK down to 0.3% mortality. UK and Ireland will be in a great place come September.

We are in a great place right now. Miniscule numbers in hospital and next to no deaths.

[Deleted User]

TefalBrain wrote: »

We are in a great place right now. Miniscule numbers in hospital and next to no deaths.

Who was the lad on bbc worldnews that though delta was less deadly.

I agree with him, but wouldnt mind listening to him or reading what he has to say.

Plenty on here would say delta is the new ebola.

I'm all vaccinated, no underlying, not overweight and in my early 40's.

Last 15 months banj**** my mental health.

Need to move on and get back out there.

We cant lockdown forever.

TefalBrain

Woody79 wrote: »

Who was the lad on bbc worldnews that though delta was less deadly.

I agree with him, but wouldnt mind listening to him or reading what he has to say.

Plenty on here would say delta is the new ebola.

I'm all vaccinated, no underlying, not overweight and in my early 40's.

Last 15 months banj**** my mental health.

Need to move on and get back out there.

We cant lockdown forever.

No idea could be on the player though. I listen to BBC World when working as can't bare Irish medias take on things anymore.

wadacrack

Woody79 wrote: »

Who was the lad on bbc worldnews that though delta was less deadly.

I agree with him, but wouldnt mind listening to him or reading what he has to say.

Plenty on here would say delta is the new ebola.

I'm all vaccinated, no underlying, not overweight and in my early 40's.

Last 15 months banj**** my mental health.

Need to move on and get back out there.

We cant lockdown forever.

We have moved on to some extent , we can do most things. People on here are acting like we are still having severe restrictions.

The rationale thing to do is to be cautious until the vast majority are vaccinated.

I cant think of anything worse than opening up too early and having to bring in retrictions. It happened in Chile and Russia recently.
The issue is getting overwhelmed again.

In real life people are enjoying the summer and don't care about indoor dining. Its fine outdoors