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The Delta variant

amandstu

How might this play out?

Apparently cases in England may be doubling every 4.5 days and resultant hospitalizations are said to be possibly between 2 and 3 times more likely that with the Alpha variant.

Only 1% prevalence here at the moment seemingly.

Back of envelope modeling in my sitting room is not reassuring and I am not near to getting my second AstraZeneca jab yet( so 30% protected against symptomatic disease?)

EDIT: Have been corrected in this thread that parts of England (not England as a whole) had cases doubling every 4.5 days

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Turtwig

stephenjmcd wrote: »

That's my whole point and that was what others were asking in response to the initial comment.

The initial post was, " As you all keep pointing out the point of the vaccines was to offer protection. But they did significantly reduce transmission, and we based a lot of our plans around that fact.

That advantage has been lost to delta"

So we're all in agreement that the above statement can't be confirmed either way either, it's an unknown at this stage but we can assume full vaccination still provides an impact on transmission.

We're not in agreement. Why would we expect transmission to not be impacted when everything else regarding the vaccines was?

The vaccines should reduce transmission by delta. That part I think we agree. Do you not agree that compared to the original and alpha this reduction in transmission should be weaker. The effect after a single should be weaker again.

Our plans have been altered. Though that has multiple factors.

FishOnABike

FileNotFound wrote: »

Has the UK seen a marked increase in mortality or strain on the NHS since delta landed and became dominant?

I was not aware this had happened.

If we have an aim for X% fully vaccinated the Gov should just announce it so we have a target - then put 100 million into expediting vaccines (be cheaper than the PUP bill)

How much more do you think we can expedite vaccinations. We're averaging 50,000 per day, vaccinating people as quickly as the supply line allows.

stephenjmcd

Turtwig wrote: »

We're not in agreement. Why would we expect transmission to not be impacted when everything else regarding the vaccines was?

The vaccines should reduce transmission by delta. That part I think we agree. Do you not agree that compared to the original and alpha this reduction in transmission should be weaker. The effect after a single should be weaker again.

Our plans have been altered. Though that has multiple factors.

I'm not disagreeing on the single impact, it's the full vaccination impact, it's an unknown, we agree of course they should reduce transmission, to what extent is the question.

The initial post wasn't clear on this, it simply suggested that the impact on transmission was completely lost from Delta, that was what others were questioning & it's what I said we don't have full information on yet particularly from full vaccination

landofthetree

TonyMaloney

stephenjmcd wrote: »

I'm not disagreeing on the single impact, it's the full vaccination impact, it's an unknown, we agree of course they should reduce transmission, to what extent is the question.

The initial post wasn't clear on this, it simply suggested that the impact on transmission was completely lost from Delta, that was what others were questioning & it's what I said we don't have full information on yet particularly from full vaccination

I did apologise for my careless wording, and clarified what I meant.

bob mcbob

Some analysis on what is happening in Scotland -

Over the last 7 days of data (up to Wed) there were approx 20500 positive cases and of those 16800 were below the age of 40. So currently >80% of positive cases are in the age groups where vaccination is not complete.

The hospitalisation rates are also interesting. The highest rate is surprisingly in the 85+ rate at a rate of 12.6 per 100K. The next highest rate is 75-84 AT 7.4 per 100K. So even with vaccination, the elderly are vulnerable.
However after this, the next highest rates are amongst the younger age groups (less vaccinated)-
25-44 = 5.5 per 100K
0-4 = 5.5
20-24 = 5.2
then
65-74 = 4 per 100K
45-64 = 3.5 per 100K

So based on this data a vaccinated 60 year old is less likely to need hospitalisation than an unvaccinated 20 year old.

https://www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/

FileNotFound

FishOnABike wrote: »

How much more do you think we can expedite vaccinations. We're averaging 50,000 per day, vaccinating people as quickly as the supply line allows.

If 100 million makes 2 weeks difference, we'd be saving money.

Also pharmacies have had stocks of J&J for a few weeks unable to use as the hse is too slow with the change of plan.

So based on that supply isn't the only limiting factor at the moment.

If someone wants to volunteer to take a shot they should get it (age restrictions relaxed where person takes personal responsibility maybe)

Just a thought.

FileNotFound

landofthetree wrote: »

The world's largest ever clinical trial.

Proof is in the UK. Never mind the pudding.

What I actually want is them to look at the UK, use it as an example. Set a % vaccination based on the UK Real world experience and give us a goal.

amandstu

FileNotFound wrote: »

The world's largest ever clinical trial.

Proof is in th UK. Never mind the pudding.

Think you are right.Ireland seems to be lucky that England's (mis)fortune is on this occasion Ireland's opportunity.

I am sure Nephet is following developments there now on an hourly basis

JMNolan

amandstu wrote: »

Think you are right.Ireland seems to be lucky that England's (mis)fortune is on this occasion Ireland's opportunity.

I am sure Nephet is following developments there now on an hourly basis

We're only lucky if we take advantage of that knowledge.

amandstu

JMNolan wrote: »

We're only lucky if we take advantage of that knowledge.

Even the opportunity is not to be sneezed at.

Micky 32

UK’s R number apparently falling slightly :

https://www.google.ie/amp/s/news.sky.com/story/amp/r-number-in-england-falls-slightly-to-1-1-to-1-3-despite-rise-in-case-numbers-12347078

FileNotFound

Micky 32 wrote: »

UK’s R number apparently falling:

https://www.google.ie/amp/s/news.sky.com/story/amp/r-number-in-england-falls-slightly-to-1-1-to-1-3-despite-rise-in-case-numbers-12347078

My uneducated guess - its running low on people who are out and about to infect.

Given there vaccination rate and the fact there will be natural immunity in the population.

Hopefully it keeps low and the real important figures of hospital cases and deaths also remain really low.

Would allow a very fast opening here

TefalBrain

Micky 32 wrote: »

UK’s R number apparently falling:

https://www.google.ie/amp/s/news.sky.com/story/amp/r-number-in-england-falls-slightly-to-1-1-to-1-3-despite-rise-in-case-numbers-12347078

No no, a Delta Storm is coming according to the doom mongers in the media.

Corpses on the street etc..

Sweet.Science

FileNotFound wrote: »

The world's largest ever clinical trial.

Proof is in the UK. Never mind the pudding.

What I actually want is them to look at the UK, use it as an example. Set a % vaccination based on the UK Real world experience and give us a goal.

We will catch up with the UKs vaccination rate within weeks when it comes to fully vaccinated .

jakiah

FileNotFound wrote: »

My uneducated guess - its running low on people who are out and about to infect.

The have indoor dining since April and are in the middle of the EUROs, how are people not "out and about"?

JMNolan

jakiah wrote: »

The have indoor dining since April and are in the middle of the EUROs, how are people not "out and about"?

To be fair, I didn't read it that way, its a case of everyone has been out and about for so long that there's no one left to infect

namloc1980

Micky 32 wrote: »

UK’s R number apparently falling slightly :

https://www.google.ie/amp/s/news.sky.com/story/amp/r-number-in-england-falls-slightly-to-1-1-to-1-3-despite-rise-in-case-numbers-12347078

R number down and the link between case numbers and hospitalisations/deaths is massively decoupled if you look at the UK data.

JMNolan

namloc1980 wrote: »

R number down and the link between case numbers and hospitalisations/deaths is massively decoupled if you look at the UK data.

Great news! I predict the same being replicated around EU over next few weeks, increase in cases but no rise in covid hospitalizations or deaths.

pc7

JMNolan wrote: »

Great news! I predict the same being replicated around EU over next few weeks, increase in cases but no rise in covid hospitalizations or deaths.

Oh I bloody hope so, would be amazing.

topdecko

fingers crossed we see the same here as there will be a disconnect between case numbers and hospitalisations due to the effectiveness of the vaccines. If we can source a few more 100K Jansen that will help things along.

namloc1980

JMNolan wrote: »

Great news! I predict the same being replicated around EU over next few weeks, increase in cases but no rise in covid hospitalizations or deaths.

Case numbers in the UK since the 15th May are up 1,800% due to Delta (big scary number). In the same time hospitalisations doubled (100% increase) and deaths have gone from 14 (7 day average) to 16 (7 day average). Massive decoupling between case numbers and severe outcomes.

OwenM

JMNolan wrote: »

Great news! I predict the same being replicated around EU over next few weeks, increase in cases but no rise in covid hospitalizations or deaths.

Depends on how the message is framed, the old saying comes to mind "if you torture the data long enough, it will confess to anything" The two plots below are from the same dataset, just framed differently.

The one on the left might be posted by the chicken lickens, telling us that numbers in hospital have doubled in a month OMG exponential growth :eek::eek::eek: (exponential is one of the most abused terms), the one on the right?

TonyMaloney

OwenM wrote: »

Depends on how the message is framed, the old saying comes to mind "if you torture the data long enough, it will confess to anything" The two plots below are from the same dataset, just framed differently.

The one on the left might be posted by the chicken lickens, telling us that numbers in hospital have doubled in a month OMG exponential growth :eek::eek::eek: (exponential is one of the most abused terms), the one on the right?

Exponential growth can be visualised on a log chart, when the growth continues in a straight line.
In this chart we can quite clearly see that hospitalisations are literally growing exponentially.

The good news is the angle is far less vertical than it has been in previous waves.

I fully agree with you that the word exponential is thrown around without people understanding it.

DarkJager21

Delta is so scarily dangerous, it can't even match the lethality of Alpha :rolleyes:

FileNotFound

Sweet.Science wrote: »

We will catch up with the UKs vaccination rate within weeks when it comes to fully vaccinated .

If MM came out and stated that was our goal at least then there would be a real aim for everyone to look at.

The lack of clarity is creating a lack of compliance - which in turns defeats a lot of the effort.

Sure guess we will wait and see

FileNotFound

OwenM wrote: »

Depends on how the message is framed, the old saying comes to mind "if you torture the data long enough, it will confess to anything" The two plots below are from the same dataset, just framed differently.

The one on the left might be posted by the chicken lickens, telling us that numbers in hospital have doubled in a month OMG exponential growth :eek::eek::eek: (exponential is one of the most abused terms), the one on the right?

Something else that cannot be ignored is that the UK is having 60k people in stadiums for the Euros and the pubs are heaving.

They are open on a scale so far ahead of us that it really needs to be acknowledged.

Our next step was a few people sat at tables socially distanced in a controlled environment.

TonyMaloney

FileNotFound wrote: »

Something else that cannot be ignored is that the UK is having 60k people in stadiums for the Euros and the pubs are heaving.

They are open on a scale so far ahead of us that it really needs to be acknowledged.

Our next step was a few people sat at tables socially distanced in a controlled environment.

A better country to watch is probably Portugal.
They're not as far along with delta as the UK, and have more similar vax levels to us.

Where Portugal differ from us is that they've applied relatively heavy restrictions to the area around Lisbon.

cheezums

Still no evidence that the latest variant is;

1. Deadlier
2. Resistant to vaccines

Danzy

TonyMaloney wrote: »

I fully agree with you that the word exponential is thrown around without people understanding it.

It is thrown around in an exponential fashion.