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The Delta variant

amandstu

How might this play out?

Apparently cases in England may be doubling every 4.5 days and resultant hospitalizations are said to be possibly between 2 and 3 times more likely that with the Alpha variant.

Only 1% prevalence here at the moment seemingly.

Back of envelope modeling in my sitting room is not reassuring and I am not near to getting my second AstraZeneca jab yet( so 30% protected against symptomatic disease?)

EDIT: Have been corrected in this thread that parts of England (not England as a whole) had cases doubling every 4.5 days

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hmmm

FileNotFound wrote: »

So when will it end, covid is here to stay, vaccines are not 100% and delta is infecting vaccinated people. So cases will continue.
.

A few more weeks caution is needed to gather data on Delta risk. People need to stop with the panic and appreciate that circumstances have changed slightly and we have to adapt to them.

The exit route is and always has been mass vaccination.

MadYaker

It'll be interesting to see if they are forced into a U turn in the coming weeks, hopefully not.

Micky 32

Deeper Blue wrote: »

And none of them will have any significant symptoms in all likelihood.

Complete non-story

1.5% of cases approx. There was approx 27k today.

Deeper Blue

CJmasgrande wrote: »

They stated on the Virgin Tonight show tonight that the UK is currently getting 400 daily cases of Delta in people who are fully vaccinated

And none of them will have any significant symptoms in all likelihood.

Complete non-story

CJmasgrande

They stated on the Virgin Tonight show tonight that the UK is currently getting 400 daily cases of Delta in people who are fully vaccinated

FishOnABike

FileNotFound wrote: »

I haven't heard any figure, potential figure. Unless I missed it the government don't have an aim in mind.

If 0 covid is the wrong point can you tell me the right one. Or are you making assumptions? My assumption we would open when the aim of vaccinating at risk and keeping hospitalisation down was clearly wrong.

What is enough vaccinated? Will we get there before we start booster shots?

Its not even the staying locked down, it's the lack of any clarity that's really annoying me.

There is no hard and fast figure. Any magic number or date for opening up can only ever be a best estimate made with the information available at the time the estimate was made. It's a multivariate problem and if the value of any of the input variables changes so does the output.

We need to keep numbers low enough for hospitals to manage (including minimising impact to other hospital services) until we have herd immunity. The arrival of a more transmissible varient makes this more difficult by having to manage higher case rate growth and needing a higher % vaccinated to achieve herd immunity while needing stronger containment measures until this is achieved.

We can make plans but life is what happens to plans.

FileNotFound

nocoverart wrote: »

You’re coming across like you’re frustrated with restrictions but at the same time you seem concerned and worried about the virus as well, or maybe I’m reading it wrong?

No issue with the restrictions at all. I have been hyper compliant to be honest. Was supportive even of letting vaccinated have more freedoms way back to allow a little bit of reopening (knowing I'd be one of the latter to be vaccinated).

It's the lack of a plan that's getting to me. Not fussed about the vaccine passport talk and prob wouldn't go indoor dining for a few weeks after it opens just so the rush is over.

So frustration is with the lack of a real aim. Even a percentage vaccinated. The Gov seem afraid to pick factual points where they will try anything.

Opening will by nature increase cases, but the aim has always been protect vulnerable and don't overwhelm hospitals.

Using hypothetical futures over real now data leaves me annoyed. Admittedly I may be the fool here.

RobAMerc

I worked in the HSE for a number of years with access to some pretty senior execs.

Make no mistake, the HSE's primary objective is to look after the HSE and everyone in it ( and I am not talking about health workers ). No one in the HSE wants to be the owner of the next PPars or any other egg on your face balls up that damages the organisation.

NFIT's objective is to protect the organisation at the expense of whatever other group is necessary. If tourism, entertainment, travel etc have to bare the brunt of their descisions so be it. They can do no wrong here. If no one dies of Covid in September, then they will claim a victory. "The alternatives would have been to frightening for us to comprehend if we hadnt shut down......" If the government opens up and the sh*t hits the fan, its the governments fault.

I was in an area quite close to where another hiccup happened some years back. Not a single f**k was given about the victims then either, it was ALL about saving the organisation and their skins.

nocoverart

FileNotFound wrote: »

Quite the opposite. I have been a fu supporter of the Gov efforts to date.

I just cannot really swallow the lack of a plan in relation to what point we actually open.

Just thinking factually, vaccines are not 100%, info to date has immunity fading, variants can infect vaccinated.

I was of the impression we had an aim. Save the at risk and the hospitals from being overwhelmed.

We have now vaccinated at risk so have done all that really can be done. And the hospitals are in good shape. But yet NPHET is forecasting doom and gloom.

We live in a world full of risks, 1 in 3 will get cancer these days. So when will the covid risk be acceptable is all.

I admit I am allowing my annoyance at the lack of clarity to impact the wording in my comments but claiming conspiracies on my part shows a lacking on yours.

You’re coming across like you’re frustrated with restrictions but at the same time you seem concerned and worried about the virus as well, or maybe I’m reading it wrong?

FileNotFound

Danzy wrote: »

I'm edging towards that we should open up a little more and continue to vaccinate.

I think indoor dining needs to reopen.

This variant is a problem but the next could be worse. Or much milder.

If vaccines have removed the risk of hospitalizing or death, to a large degree, it should mean a bit more opening up.

Zero deaths should not be the target, living with it may well mean a 1000 deaths a year, or more.

Like a bad flu year.

I am of the same mind.

FileNotFound

GooglePlus wrote: »

There is no standard though, standards are set after the fact and this is all unfolding.

We're not waiting for 0 cases either, where did you hear that? We'll never have 0 cases of Covid in our lifetime, the thing was built to survive.

All that's happened is a variant has come up a bit us on the arse before we had enough vaccinated, so we're taking precaution. Once there's more vaccinated, we'll be laughing.

A blip is all but it's understandable that so many are losing their minds because it's a ****ing **** show.

I haven't heard any figure, potential figure. Unless I missed it the government don't have an aim in mind.

If 0 covid is the wrong point can you tell me the right one. Or are you making assumptions? My assumption we would open when the aim of vaccinating at risk and keeping hospitalisation down was clearly wrong.

What is enough vaccinated? Will we get there before we start booster shots?

Its not even the staying locked down, it's the lack of any clarity that's really annoying me.

FileNotFound

dominatinMC wrote: »

I think you got lost in the way to the Conspiracy Theories forum..

Quite the opposite. I have been a fu supporter of the Gov efforts to date.

I just cannot really swallow the lack of a plan in relation to what point we actually open.

Just thinking factually, vaccines are not 100%, info to date has immunity fading, variants can infect vaccinated.

I was of the impression we had an aim. Save the at risk and the hospitals from being overwhelmed.

We have now vaccinated at risk so have done all that really can be done. And the hospitals are in good shape. But yet NPHET is forecasting doom and gloom.

We live in a world full of risks, 1 in 3 will get cancer these days. So when will the covid risk be acceptable is all.

I admit I am allowing my annoyance at the lack of clarity to impact the wording in my comments but claiming conspiracies on my part shows a lacking on yours.

GooglePlus

FileNotFound wrote: »

Fair enough it will end, but surely we aren't waiting for some nonsense 0 cases, 100% vaccinated.

We are 66/45 first/second in the adult population now. Low hospital cases and minimal mortality, at risk vaccinated.

I was of the impression that was lockdown aim achieved. But seems a new unknown standard has been set.

That with the potential for fading immunity in the first vaccinated leaves us in a continuous circle potentially.

Would like to know the standard is all. Otherwise my hyperbole above has as much ground as your response really.

There is no standard though, standards are set after the fact and this is all unfolding.

We're not waiting for 0 cases either, where did you hear that? We'll never have 0 cases of Covid in our lifetime, the thing was built to survive.

All that's happened is a variant has come up a bit us on the arse before we had enough vaccinated, so we're taking precaution. Once there's more vaccinated, we'll be laughing.

A blip is all but it's understandable that so many are losing their minds because it's a ****ing **** show.

Danzy

FileNotFound wrote: »

So when will it end, covid is here to stay, vaccines are not 100% and delta is infecting vaccinated people. So cases will continue.

So as we will always have people at risk, when's the magic line where we accept the risk?

Its a serious question.

I'm edging towards that we should open up a little more and continue to vaccinate.

I think indoor dining needs to reopen.

This variant is a problem but the next could be worse. Or much milder.

If vaccines have removed the risk of hospitalizing or death, to a large degree, it should mean a bit more opening up.

Zero deaths should not be the target, living with it may well mean a 1000 deaths a year, or more.

Like a bad flu year.

dominatinMC

FileNotFound wrote: »

So I guess we will be locked down forever, next we will need to ban driving altogether as that kills people. Then we can close down all society for fear of risks.

Better buy in the cotton wool so Tony can wrap us all up tight.

I think you got lost in the way to the Conspiracy Theories forum..

FishOnABike

snowcat wrote: »

Oh sorry I didnt get a chance to go through all 30 of their CV's. Its good to see the main man is an expert in the field.

Do you often make unfounded claims without the most basic fact checking? Oh, sorry, that was a rhetorical question.

nocoverart

GooglePlus wrote: »

Of course it's going to end, it becoming endemic is a good thing. When we get more vaccinated, it'll be a non issue. At the minute all I can't do is have a pint inside but for the most part were in a much better position than earlier in the year.

Don’t be ruining that posters night with your optimism, you’re bordering on cruel

FileNotFound

GooglePlus wrote: »

Of course it's going to end, it becoming endemic is a good thing. When we get more vaccinated, it'll be a non issue. At the minute all I can't do is have a pint inside but for the most part were in a much better position than earlier in the year.

Fair enough it will end, but surely we aren't waiting for some nonsense 0 cases, 100% vaccinated.

We are 66/45 first/second in the adult population now. Low hospital cases and minimal mortality, at risk vaccinated.

I was of the impression that was lockdown aim achieved. But seems a new unknown standard has been set.

That with the potential for fading immunity in the first vaccinated leaves us in a continuous circle potentially.

Would like to know the standard is all. Otherwise my hyperbole above has as much ground as your response really.

GooglePlus

FileNotFound wrote: »

So when will it end, covid is here to stay, vaccines are not 100% and delta is infecting vaccinated people. So cases will continue.

So as we will always have people at risk, when's the magic line where we accept the risk?

Its a serious question.

Of course it's going to end, it becoming endemic is a good thing. When we get more vaccinated, it'll be a non issue. At the minute all I can't do is have a pint inside but for the most part were in a much better position than earlier in the year.

FileNotFound

Danzy wrote: »

Your panties are bunching up.

So when will it end, covid is here to stay, vaccines are not 100% and delta is infecting vaccinated people. So cases will continue.

So as we will always have people at risk, when's the magic line where we accept the risk?

Its a serious question.

They are taking away the cheap drink as we can't be trusted. So on and so on. We seem to be going though a bit of a nanny state moment. All in the name of public health.

FileNotFound

GooglePlus wrote: »

Why discredit yourself with such extreme sensationalist nonsense.

Well as Philip Nolan tweeted earlier vaccine efficacy is only a certain percentage meaning we will always have at risk in our population and covid will be indemic so.....

I honestly expected we would continue to open unless a clear rise in hospital cases was seen.

But that is no longer the aim. Can you tell me at what point will the risk be acceptable? Will we be onto booster shots before we get to that point.

Fully accept my comment is sensationalist but can you give me an answer - a real answer for when this will end now?

Widdensushi

FileNotFound wrote: »

So I guess we will be locked down forever, next we will need to ban driving altogether as that kills people. Then we can close down all society for fear of risks.

Better buy in the cotton wool so Tony can wrap us all up tight.

Unfortunately you are very close to the truth

Danzy

FileNotFound wrote: »

So I guess we will be locked down forever, next we will need to ban driving altogether as that kills people. Then we can close down all society for fear of risks.

Better buy in the cotton wool so Tony can wrap us all up tight.

Your panties are bunching up.

GooglePlus

FileNotFound wrote: »

So I guess we will be locked down forever, next we will need to ban driving altogether as that kills people. Then we can close down all society for fear of risks.

Better buy in the cotton wool so Tony can wrap us all up tight.

Why discredit yourself with such extreme sensationalist nonsense.

FileNotFound

So I guess we will be locked down forever, next we will need to ban driving altogether as that kills people. Then we can close down all society for fear of risks.

Better buy in the cotton wool so Tony can wrap us all up tight.

GooglePlus

snowcat wrote: »

https://www.mdpi.com/2076-393X/9/7/693/pdf

https://www.universityaffairs.ca/features/feature-article/beware-academics-getting-reeled-scam-journals/

Micky 32

https://twitter.com/sailorrooscout/status/1410673460624465920?s=21

snowcat

Lumen wrote: »

Amazingly, you are wrong again. :pac:

Cillian de Gascun is a consultant virologist.

Oh sorry I didnt get a chance to go through all 30 of their CV's. Its good to see the main man is an expert in the field.

Lumen

snowcat wrote: »

I could be wrong here but i dont think there is a virologist or immunologist on Nphet either.

Amazingly, you are wrong again. :pac:

Cillian de Gascun is a consultant virologist.

snowcat

Lumen wrote: »

https://twitter.com/udarnik/status/1408563479758446596?s=19

https://retractionwatch.com/2021/06/29/paper-claiming-two-deaths-from-covid-19-vaccination-for-every-three-prevented-cases-earns-expression-of-concern/

In any case it doesn't contain the data you claim.

I could be wrong here but i dont think there is a virologist or immunologist on Nphet either.