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The Delta variant

amandstu

How might this play out?

Apparently cases in England may be doubling every 4.5 days and resultant hospitalizations are said to be possibly between 2 and 3 times more likely that with the Alpha variant.

Only 1% prevalence here at the moment seemingly.

Back of envelope modeling in my sitting room is not reassuring and I am not near to getting my second AstraZeneca jab yet( so 30% protected against symptomatic disease?)

EDIT: Have been corrected in this thread that parts of England (not England as a whole) had cases doubling every 4.5 days

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[Deleted User]

TonyMaloney wrote: »

do you think infinity ends at 90,000?

Vaccination in the UK is going at formula 1 speed in 18 to 30's
Its only a matter of weeks before those numbers fall off a cliff again
1 to 2% of beds in the UK are covid cases
Its no January

brickster69

TonyMaloney wrote: »

England with 22,948 new cases today, of almost 28,000 in all UK

https://twitter.com/BristOliver/status/1410616332903612421?s=20

England now have a doubling time of 9 days.
That brings them to 91,792 cases per day on July 19th, the day they're supposed to lift all restrictions.

"Freedom day" is, once again, not looking likely

That mean 39 out of 40 testing negative. Not bad.

screamer

Deeper Blue wrote: »

Cases don't matter

Exactly, outcomes do.

FileNotFound

ceadaoin. wrote: »

Do people still think that cases just keep doubling to infinity?

Even if they do they mean nothing unless they equate to death and hospital pressure.

The UK in the coming weeks will be a real life case study that will be undeniable.

All the models can go in the bin when faced with reality - portugal has high enough numbers and will rise higher so they will be a second real life case study with a lower vaccination rate.

Then we can all stop imagining and hopefully get on with life or lock back up.

Wolf359f

ceadaoin. wrote: »

Do people still think that cases just keep doubling to infinity?

Of course not, but most countries apply some form of restrictions to suppress a wave. Obviously the UK is going with trying to head it off with vaccines, so it's certainly one to watch.

TonyMaloney

ceadaoin. wrote: »

Do people still think that cases just keep doubling to infinity?

do you think infinity ends at 90,000?

ceadaoin.

TonyMaloney wrote: »

England with 22,948 new cases today, of almost 28,000 in all UK

https://twitter.com/BristOliver/status/1410616332903612421?s=20

England now have a doubling time of 9 days.
That brings them to 91,792 cases per day on July 19th, the day they're supposed to lift all restrictions.

"Freedom day" is, once again, not looking likely

Do people still think that cases just keep doubling to infinity?

Deeper Blue

TonyMaloney wrote: »

England with 22,948 new cases today, of almost 28,000 in all UK

https://twitter.com/BristOliver/status/1410616332903612421?s=20

England now have a doubling time of 9 days.
That brings them to 91,792 cases per day on July 19th, the day they're supposed to lift all restrictions.

"Freedom day" is, once again, not looking likely

Cases don't matter

OwenM

TonyMaloney wrote: »

England with 22,948 new cases today, of almost 28,000 in all UK

https://twitter.com/BristOliver/status/1410616332903612421?s=20

England now have a doubling time of 9 days.
That brings them to 91,792 cases per day on July 19th, the day they're supposed to lift all restrictions.

"Freedom day" is, once again, not looking likely

and you are loving it

FileNotFound

hmmm wrote: »

Press Release in SA with a bit more detail https://www.samrc.ac.za/media-release/vast-majority-breakthrough-infections-vaccinated-health-workers-are-mild:

"Cape Town | Given the intensity of the third wave and spread of the delta variant, the Sisonke investigators would like to update health workers and the public regarding new data on the JnJ vaccine, and the pattern of breakthrough infections in our health workers vaccinated as part of the phase 3b study.

Breakthrough infections following the JnJ vaccine are defined as a positive COVID-19 test more than 28 days following vaccination. Some people test positive on routine screening (for example when being admitted to hospital for a non-COVID-19 procedure or following exposure at work) and some following development of symptoms or contact with another person with COVID-19. We track these through daily linkages to national COVID-19 registries of laboratory and hospitalisation data and through reports to the Sisonke desk. These are then passed onto our breakthrough infection team who confirm the infection and timing, make contact with the health worker and if appropriate attending doctor, and establish the severity of the infection. Consistently we are finding that 94% of breakthrough infections are mild, 4% are moderate and only 2% severe.

Report breakthrough infections: We encourage health workers who get COVID-19 or admit a vaccinated health worker to be in touch so that we can assess severity of infection, and if severe arrange for immediate sequencing of the virus from the affected health worker. We aim to sequence all severe infections. This week sequencing shows a similar pattern of variants to that in the general population with predominance of beta and delta variants. These findings are in line with other new data suggesting that a single-dose of the JnJ vaccine protects against variants of concern including the delta variant.

Co-principal investigator Professor Glenda Gray notes that “the single dose vaccine, designed for emergency use is safe and easy to use. We have mounting data to suggest that immunity increases over time and that it retains its efficacy against important variants such as beta and delta.”"

Thats great news to be fair. Hope it was a good solid study.

hmmm

Press Release in SA with a bit more detail https://www.samrc.ac.za/media-release/vast-majority-breakthrough-infections-vaccinated-health-workers-are-mild:

"Cape Town | Given the intensity of the third wave and spread of the delta variant, the Sisonke investigators would like to update health workers and the public regarding new data on the JnJ vaccine, and the pattern of breakthrough infections in our health workers vaccinated as part of the phase 3b study.

Breakthrough infections following the JnJ vaccine are defined as a positive COVID-19 test more than 28 days following vaccination. Some people test positive on routine screening (for example when being admitted to hospital for a non-COVID-19 procedure or following exposure at work) and some following development of symptoms or contact with another person with COVID-19. We track these through daily linkages to national COVID-19 registries of laboratory and hospitalisation data and through reports to the Sisonke desk. These are then passed onto our breakthrough infection team who confirm the infection and timing, make contact with the health worker and if appropriate attending doctor, and establish the severity of the infection. Consistently we are finding that 94% of breakthrough infections are mild, 4% are moderate and only 2% severe.

Report breakthrough infections: We encourage health workers who get COVID-19 or admit a vaccinated health worker to be in touch so that we can assess severity of infection, and if severe arrange for immediate sequencing of the virus from the affected health worker. We aim to sequence all severe infections. This week sequencing shows a similar pattern of variants to that in the general population with predominance of beta and delta variants. These findings are in line with other new data suggesting that a single-dose of the JnJ vaccine protects against variants of concern including the delta variant.

Co-principal investigator Professor Glenda Gray notes that “the single dose vaccine, designed for emergency use is safe and easy to use. We have mounting data to suggest that immunity increases over time and that it retains its efficacy against important variants such as beta and delta.”"

TonyMaloney

England with 22,948 new cases today, of almost 28,000 in all UK

https://twitter.com/BristOliver/status/1410616332903612421?s=20

England now have a doubling time of 9 days.
That brings them to 91,792 cases per day on July 19th, the day they're supposed to lift all restrictions.

"Freedom day" is, once again, not looking likely

hmmm

Tyrone212 wrote: »

Is Delta well established in South Africa?

We have to see the breakdown of results, it sounds like they will be released today.

South Africa was riddled with B.1.351 which is still the immune-escape champion variant I believe.

Goldengirl

hmmm wrote: »

Don't see this posted earlier. Apparently a South African trial of the J&J vaccine is showing good results against Delta.

https://twitter.com/geoffreyyork/status/1410326558615740427

Interested in this too. Thanks.
Anyone know if they are likely to need a booster or not after J and J?
I think this will be a great vaccine to help catch up on total vaccination if not.

Tyrone212

Is Delta well established in South Africa?

Metroid diorteM

Kewreeuss wrote: »

The stadium in Budapest for Nederland versus Czech was absolutely jam packed.

Yeah, I'm not a football fan but I feel like Im living in a different dimension whenever I see shots of these matches with all the people there.

Wolf359f

hmmm wrote: »

Don't see this posted earlier. Apparently a South African trial of the J&J vaccine is showing good results against Delta.

https://twitter.com/geoffreyyork/status/1410326558615740427

So 6% of 1% had more then mild symptoms?
That's tiny numbers, especially for a single jab.
So for every 10,000 vaccinated, 94 had mild symptoms only 6 had more than mild symptoms.

stephenjmcd

hmmm wrote: »

Don't see this posted earlier. Apparently a South African trial of the J&J vaccine is showing good results against Delta.

https://twitter.com/geoffreyyork/status/1410326558615740427

J&J looking very good against Delta

hmmm

Don't see this posted earlier. Apparently a South African trial of the J&J vaccine is showing good results against Delta.

https://twitter.com/geoffreyyork/status/1410326558615740427

Micky 32

TonyMaloney wrote: »

...

You wouldn’t have posted that if you weren’t asked. You’re just interested in big scary numbers drama. Anyone that wants a balanced discussion would post both numbers for perspective.

Anyway thousands in Ireland vaxxed everyday, looking good.

Goldengirl

Just posted on vaccine thread,
Dr Colm Henry stating on HSE briefing that while there are some break through in fully vaccinated as can happen with widespread community infection, as none of the vaccines can prevent 100% from infection, it is preventing serious disease and death...
" the vaccine wall is holding in UK and Scotland, unlike for example Russia" where deaths are rising due to Delta as they have much lower vaccination levels.

FileNotFound

brickster69 wrote: »

It is no good comparing Ireland to the UK. You need to compare with countries who are just starting to get Delta or slightly ahead now.

Well if you are planning for the future - surely looking at a nation that is X weeks ahead of us in every way would be perfect no?

brickster69

FileNotFound wrote: »

UK is at 67% first dose and 49% second dose with most people having been vaccinated with AZ which is the least effective of the vaccines. (Figures from google today)

Ireland is at 66% first dose and 43% second dose - with many of these vaccinated with more effective mRNA vaccines. (Figures from the Irish Times 3 days ago)

We are quickly becoming the most effectively vaccinated nation on earth

It is no good comparing Ireland to the UK. You need to compare with countries who are just starting to get Delta or slightly ahead now.

TonyMaloney

Micky 32 wrote: »

You won’t see much info posted about the hospitals on this thread unless of course they hit the roof.
:rolleyes:

TonyMaloney wrote: »

509 in hospital, up just 5 from yesterday

...

Micky 32

FileNotFound wrote: »

How are the hospitals?

You won’t see much info posted about the hospitals on this thread unless of course they hit the roof.
:rolleyes:

FileNotFound

Call me Al wrote: »

Uk are at 85% and 62.5% respectively for the over 16 population, which is the population percentage your giving for Ireland.
So our rate is improving but we've a bit to go before we catch up with them.

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/vaccinations

Thanks for the correction - didn't realise the report had not accounted for entire population.

Much appreciated.

Kewreeuss

The stadium in Budapest for Nederland versus Czech was absolutely jam packed.

Call me Al

FileNotFound wrote: »

UK is at 67% first dose and 49% second dose with most people having been vaccinated with AZ which is the least effective of the vaccines. (Figures from google today)

Ireland is at 66% first dose and 43% second dose - with many of these vaccinated with more effective mRNA vaccines. (Figures from the Irish Times 3 days ago)

We are quickly becoming the most effectively vaccinated nation on earth

Uk are at 85% and 62.5% respectively for the over 16 population, which is the population percentage your giving for Ireland.
So our rate is improving but we've a bit to go before we catch up with them.

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/vaccinations

TonyMaloney

FileNotFound wrote: »

How are the hospitals?

I think we should look at the UK and really use it as a guide as we lag behind them by a few weeks.

So the UK which is open (very open) and having mass crowd events is at 67% first dose and 49% second dose with most people having been vaccinated with AZ which is the least effective of the vaccines. (Figures from google today)

Yet Ireland remains closed at 66% first dose and 43% second dose - with many of these vaccinated with more effective mRNA vaccines. (Figures from the Irish Times 3 days ago)

We also have a much lower population density.

I am not claiming any knowledge of the variant but if the hospitals remain clear then we should continue to open - the uk will see a negative impact way before we do and at that point the Gov can use them as the justification for any restrictions that are needed.

With our current restrictions cases are climbing recently - because the reality is there are mass gatherings outside as people haven't anything or anywhere else to go/do.

509 in hospital, up just 5 from yesterday

ginoginelli

kowloonkev wrote: »

Just seen that UEFA have washed their hands of any responsibility on a surge of cases by saying they are just following local government protocols.

Nothing about the pressure they put on said authorities though. Weren't games taken away from Dublin because we couldn't promise that crowds would be permitted?

The explosion of cases across europe really vindicates are goverments decision not to sacrifice safety standards for the games. Of course the usual morans blasted them on here. But like nearly everything else about the pandemic they got it wrong again.