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The Delta variant

amandstu

How might this play out?

Apparently cases in England may be doubling every 4.5 days and resultant hospitalizations are said to be possibly between 2 and 3 times more likely that with the Alpha variant.

Only 1% prevalence here at the moment seemingly.

Back of envelope modeling in my sitting room is not reassuring and I am not near to getting my second AstraZeneca jab yet( so 30% protected against symptomatic disease?)

EDIT: Have been corrected in this thread that parts of England (not England as a whole) had cases doubling every 4.5 days

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Metroid diorteM

Kewreeuss wrote: »

The stadium in Budapest for Nederland versus Czech was absolutely jam packed.

Yeah, I'm not a football fan but I feel like Im living in a different dimension whenever I see shots of these matches with all the people there.

Tyrone212

Is Delta well established in South Africa?

Goldengirl

hmmm wrote: »

Don't see this posted earlier. Apparently a South African trial of the J&J vaccine is showing good results against Delta.

https://twitter.com/geoffreyyork/status/1410326558615740427

Interested in this too. Thanks.
Anyone know if they are likely to need a booster or not after J and J?
I think this will be a great vaccine to help catch up on total vaccination if not.

hmmm

Tyrone212 wrote: »

Is Delta well established in South Africa?

We have to see the breakdown of results, it sounds like they will be released today.

South Africa was riddled with B.1.351 which is still the immune-escape champion variant I believe.

TonyMaloney

England with 22,948 new cases today, of almost 28,000 in all UK

https://twitter.com/BristOliver/status/1410616332903612421?s=20

England now have a doubling time of 9 days.
That brings them to 91,792 cases per day on July 19th, the day they're supposed to lift all restrictions.

"Freedom day" is, once again, not looking likely

hmmm

Press Release in SA with a bit more detail https://www.samrc.ac.za/media-release/vast-majority-breakthrough-infections-vaccinated-health-workers-are-mild:

"Cape Town | Given the intensity of the third wave and spread of the delta variant, the Sisonke investigators would like to update health workers and the public regarding new data on the JnJ vaccine, and the pattern of breakthrough infections in our health workers vaccinated as part of the phase 3b study.

Breakthrough infections following the JnJ vaccine are defined as a positive COVID-19 test more than 28 days following vaccination. Some people test positive on routine screening (for example when being admitted to hospital for a non-COVID-19 procedure or following exposure at work) and some following development of symptoms or contact with another person with COVID-19. We track these through daily linkages to national COVID-19 registries of laboratory and hospitalisation data and through reports to the Sisonke desk. These are then passed onto our breakthrough infection team who confirm the infection and timing, make contact with the health worker and if appropriate attending doctor, and establish the severity of the infection. Consistently we are finding that 94% of breakthrough infections are mild, 4% are moderate and only 2% severe.

Report breakthrough infections: We encourage health workers who get COVID-19 or admit a vaccinated health worker to be in touch so that we can assess severity of infection, and if severe arrange for immediate sequencing of the virus from the affected health worker. We aim to sequence all severe infections. This week sequencing shows a similar pattern of variants to that in the general population with predominance of beta and delta variants. These findings are in line with other new data suggesting that a single-dose of the JnJ vaccine protects against variants of concern including the delta variant.

Co-principal investigator Professor Glenda Gray notes that “the single dose vaccine, designed for emergency use is safe and easy to use. We have mounting data to suggest that immunity increases over time and that it retains its efficacy against important variants such as beta and delta.”"

FileNotFound

hmmm wrote: »

Press Release in SA with a bit more detail https://www.samrc.ac.za/media-release/vast-majority-breakthrough-infections-vaccinated-health-workers-are-mild:

"Cape Town | Given the intensity of the third wave and spread of the delta variant, the Sisonke investigators would like to update health workers and the public regarding new data on the JnJ vaccine, and the pattern of breakthrough infections in our health workers vaccinated as part of the phase 3b study.

Breakthrough infections following the JnJ vaccine are defined as a positive COVID-19 test more than 28 days following vaccination. Some people test positive on routine screening (for example when being admitted to hospital for a non-COVID-19 procedure or following exposure at work) and some following development of symptoms or contact with another person with COVID-19. We track these through daily linkages to national COVID-19 registries of laboratory and hospitalisation data and through reports to the Sisonke desk. These are then passed onto our breakthrough infection team who confirm the infection and timing, make contact with the health worker and if appropriate attending doctor, and establish the severity of the infection. Consistently we are finding that 94% of breakthrough infections are mild, 4% are moderate and only 2% severe.

Report breakthrough infections: We encourage health workers who get COVID-19 or admit a vaccinated health worker to be in touch so that we can assess severity of infection, and if severe arrange for immediate sequencing of the virus from the affected health worker. We aim to sequence all severe infections. This week sequencing shows a similar pattern of variants to that in the general population with predominance of beta and delta variants. These findings are in line with other new data suggesting that a single-dose of the JnJ vaccine protects against variants of concern including the delta variant.

Co-principal investigator Professor Glenda Gray notes that “the single dose vaccine, designed for emergency use is safe and easy to use. We have mounting data to suggest that immunity increases over time and that it retains its efficacy against important variants such as beta and delta.”"

Thats great news to be fair. Hope it was a good solid study.

OwenM

TonyMaloney wrote: »

England with 22,948 new cases today, of almost 28,000 in all UK

https://twitter.com/BristOliver/status/1410616332903612421?s=20

England now have a doubling time of 9 days.
That brings them to 91,792 cases per day on July 19th, the day they're supposed to lift all restrictions.

"Freedom day" is, once again, not looking likely

and you are loving it

Deeper Blue

TonyMaloney wrote: »

England with 22,948 new cases today, of almost 28,000 in all UK

https://twitter.com/BristOliver/status/1410616332903612421?s=20

England now have a doubling time of 9 days.
That brings them to 91,792 cases per day on July 19th, the day they're supposed to lift all restrictions.

"Freedom day" is, once again, not looking likely

Cases don't matter

ceadaoin.

TonyMaloney wrote: »

England with 22,948 new cases today, of almost 28,000 in all UK

https://twitter.com/BristOliver/status/1410616332903612421?s=20

England now have a doubling time of 9 days.
That brings them to 91,792 cases per day on July 19th, the day they're supposed to lift all restrictions.

"Freedom day" is, once again, not looking likely

Do people still think that cases just keep doubling to infinity?

TonyMaloney

ceadaoin. wrote: »

Do people still think that cases just keep doubling to infinity?

do you think infinity ends at 90,000?

Wolf359f

ceadaoin. wrote: »

Do people still think that cases just keep doubling to infinity?

Of course not, but most countries apply some form of restrictions to suppress a wave. Obviously the UK is going with trying to head it off with vaccines, so it's certainly one to watch.

FileNotFound

ceadaoin. wrote: »

Do people still think that cases just keep doubling to infinity?

Even if they do they mean nothing unless they equate to death and hospital pressure.

The UK in the coming weeks will be a real life case study that will be undeniable.

All the models can go in the bin when faced with reality - portugal has high enough numbers and will rise higher so they will be a second real life case study with a lower vaccination rate.

Then we can all stop imagining and hopefully get on with life or lock back up.

screamer

Deeper Blue wrote: »

Cases don't matter

Exactly, outcomes do.

brickster69

TonyMaloney wrote: »

England with 22,948 new cases today, of almost 28,000 in all UK

https://twitter.com/BristOliver/status/1410616332903612421?s=20

England now have a doubling time of 9 days.
That brings them to 91,792 cases per day on July 19th, the day they're supposed to lift all restrictions.

"Freedom day" is, once again, not looking likely

That mean 39 out of 40 testing negative. Not bad.

[Deleted User]

TonyMaloney wrote: »

do you think infinity ends at 90,000?

Vaccination in the UK is going at formula 1 speed in 18 to 30's
Its only a matter of weeks before those numbers fall off a cliff again
1 to 2% of beds in the UK are covid cases
Its no January

TonyMaloney

Deeper Blue wrote: »

Cases don't matter

Until the link between cases & hospitalisation/deaths is broken, then cases very much matter.

At the moment hospitalisations and deaths are rising exponentially, albeit at a significantly lower rate than before due to their excellent vax roll out.

I think what you meant to say is that cases don't matter to you, personally.
That's fine, but you should probably put me on ignore.

Goldengirl

screamer wrote: »

Exactly, outcomes do.

And what do you think the outcomes of rising cases are even in younger unvaccinated populations?

Goldengirl

Marine Layer wrote: »

Vaccination in the UK is going at formula 1 speed in 18 to 30's
Its only a matter of weeks before those numbers fall off a cliff again
1 to 2% of beds in the UK are covid cases
Its no January

That will be great when it does happen but in the meantime a lot of people are getting sick and around 2% serious enough to be hospitalised.
Lower percentages as illness in younger age groups.
Nevertheless we don't want or need that here.

Fils

One has to question what caused this variant to be so transmissible when it got developed in India. Food perhaps?

brickster69

Spain yesterday 9 k, today 12 k new cases; almost triple last Thursday.

[Deleted User]

Briefing this evening by NPHET was very downbeat and apocolyptic.

Last summer it isnt.

Many more people will die this summer of covid than last due to sheer numbers of infections.

We will have 1000's of cases per day very soon.

Mortality rates will collapse due to vaccinations and high numbers of infections in young.

Also I think this variant is less severe.

Very few people will die under 40 or 50 I would think in this wave.

A handful at most.

Most deaths will occur from older unvaccinated and older breakthrough cases in vaccinated.

I actually thought this was over tbh.

cheezums

Woody79 wrote: »

Briefing this evening by NPHET was very downbeat and apocolyptic.

Last summer it isnt.

Many more people will die this summer of covid than last due to sheer numbers of infections.

We will have 1000's of cases per day very soon.

Mortality rates will collapse due to vaccinations and high numbers of infections in young.

Also I think this variant is less severe.

Very few people will die under 40 or 50 I would think in this wave.

A handful at most.

Most deaths will occur from older unvaccinated and older breakthrough cases in vaccinated.

I actually thought this was over tbh.

it is over. but summer is slow for news so here we are.

robinph

Fils wrote: »

One has to question what caused this variant to be so transmissible when it got developed in India. Food perhaps?

What?!?!

TonyMaloney

robinph wrote: »

What?!?!

I think he's suggesting that the Indians may have been feeding food to the variant.

If true, well, it's big big news. Disgraceful

iheartpooner

TonyMaloney wrote: »

I think he's suggesting that the Indians may have been feeding food to the variant.

If true, well, it's big big news. Disgraceful

They fed Covid after midnight, big mistake!

tom1ie

TonyMaloney wrote: »

Until the link between cases & hospitalisation/deaths is broken, then cases very much matter.

At the moment hospitalisations and deaths are rising exponentially, albeit at a significantly lower rate than before due to their excellent vax roll out.

I think what you meant to say is that cases don't matter to you, personally.
That's fine, but you should probably put me on ignore.

hold on though, what is the point of a vaccine if it doesn't break the link between infections and hospitalisations?
The vulnerable and elderly are vaccinated.

are we saying the delta variant is immune to vaccines? evidence?

are we saying the delta variant is dangerous to the young and healthy who haven't been vaccinated and have a small chance of ending up in hospital?

are we saying the delta variant is dangerous to those who have only had one dose of vaccination? again evidence?

we need to figure out what the issue with delta is here.

tom1ie

Goldengirl wrote: »

And what do you think the outcomes of rising cases are even in younger unvaccinated populations?

what will be the outcome?
hospitalisations on a mass scale that would put the health service under pressure?

where's the evidence for that?

Snooker Loopy

tom1ie wrote: »

what will be the outcome?
hospitalisations on a mass scale that would put the health service under pressure?

where's the evidence for that?

https://twitter.com/COVID19actuary/status/1410622822599254017

tom1ie

Snooker Loopy wrote: »

https://twitter.com/COVID19actuary/status/1410622822599254017

ok grand but what is the breakdown of people going into hospital?

is it the elderly that have been vaccinated twice? if so the vaccine is no good.

is it people that have only been dosed once?

is it otherwise young healthy people that haven't had a vaccine yet?