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The Delta variant

amandstu

How might this play out?

Apparently cases in England may be doubling every 4.5 days and resultant hospitalizations are said to be possibly between 2 and 3 times more likely that with the Alpha variant.

Only 1% prevalence here at the moment seemingly.

Back of envelope modeling in my sitting room is not reassuring and I am not near to getting my second AstraZeneca jab yet( so 30% protected against symptomatic disease?)

EDIT: Have been corrected in this thread that parts of England (not England as a whole) had cases doubling every 4.5 days

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speckle

Convergence festival..oops meant theory

... from march but still a nice article to read..

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-coronavirus-variants-dont-seem-to-be-highly-variable-so-far/

patnor1011

Delta variant looks to be not such a big issue despite what media try to suggest. Well, at least according to what we seen in other countries.
https://www.theblaze.com/op-ed/horowitz-the-delta-deception-new-covid-variant-might-be-less-deadly

Lumen

patnor1011 wrote: »

Delta variant looks to be not such a big issue despite what media try to suggest. Well, at least according to what we seen in other countries.
https://www.theblaze.com/op-ed/horowitz-the-delta-deception-new-covid-variant-might-be-less-deadly

That article is such screamingly obvious bullsh!t it's not even worth bothering to take apart piece by piece.

Where do you get this stuff from?

brickster69

robinph wrote: »

If deaths kick off in the UK then everyone, everywhere is in deep trouble as it would mean the vaccines aren't working and the delta variant, as well as being more transmissible, is also more dangerous.

Not seeing anything yet to indicate that is what is going on in the UK though. Cases are going up, but not across the whole country as it is hitting one area for a few weeks then begins to fade away, hospitalisations are very slowly creeping up but nothing like matching the cases, and deaths and numbers on ventilation are also creeping up but at a slower rate again than the hospitalisation.

May not yet be time to go completely nuts with removing all social distancing and having loads of massive house parties, but things are not looking too bad.

I remember at the end of April when it was on the news they had found 20 cases of Delta, nothing much happened for a good while then all of a sudden it just kicked off.

All of May was 2K cases, start of June was 4K cases, a week ago was 10K and yesterday was 26K

India was probably the least vaccinated and got hit, the UK are one of the highest and might just get away with it, so not a lot to go on for those in the middle.

It's a matter of just keeping the fingers crossed and see what happens, difficult to prepare for anything really.

cheezums

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Don't know if it's less severe yet , just that full vaccination appears to be working ...mostly .

Why then are vaccines less likely to stop infection with new strain compared to alpha?

But vaccinated persons are less likely to go to hospital with new strain.

All points to:

1. more infectious strain (able to break through vaccines better).
2. less severe strain (when breaks through causes less severe disease).

This all fits with what we were told was the evolution of this virus and coronaviruses in general.

Vaccines do not stop anyone getting infected. Thats not how they work.

brickster69

WHO/Europe press update. Saying it as it is.

https://twitter.com/WHO_Europe/status/1410522364656250882

TonyMaloney

TonyMaloney wrote: »

Scotland again with a new record for daily cases - 3,887

Scotland with 4,235 cases today.
First time ever over 4,000.

Hospitalisation up to 275 (+40)

Wolf359f

TonyMaloney wrote: »

Scotland with 4,235 cases today.
First time ever over 4,000.

Hospitalisation up to 275 (+40)

Weird, people were saying cases were only high due to surge testing and Nicola sturgeon said they had peaked.
Definitely one to watch as it seems to be an outlier in the UK in that cases and hospitalisations are increasing faster than the rest of the UK.

pc7

Wolf359f wrote: »

Weird, people were saying cases were only high due to surge testing and Nicola sturgeon said they had peaked.
Definitely one to watch as it seems to be an outlier in the UK in that cases and hospitalisations are increasing faster than the rest of the UK.

Is there any indicator as to what is causing them to be so different? The football, vaccine rate? Is their vaccine rate the same as rest of UK?

TonyMaloney

pc7 wrote: »

Is there any indicator as to what is causing them to be so different? The football, vaccine rate? Is their vaccine rate the same as rest of UK?

I don't think it's down to anything bar bad luck really. For whatever reason, delta seemed to take off around the Glasgow region early on.
You can view the progress of it here

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/cases

England are on the same trajectory, just a little further behind.

Goldengirl

Woody79 wrote: »

Don't know if it's less severe yet , just that full vaccination appears to be working ...mostly .

Why then are vaccines less likely to stop infection with new strain compared to alpha?

But vaccinated persons are less likely to go to hospital with new strain.

All points to:

1. more infectious strain (able to break through vaccines better).
2. less severe strain (when breaks through causes less severe disease).

This all fits with what we were told was the evolution of this virus and coronaviruses in general.

As I said don"t KNOW yet, nor do you, and we can all surmise and give our opinions but it is not a fact until it is known.

I did not call vaccine effectiveness to account, so don't know why you posed that table.
The vaccines are clearly working to prevent hospitalisation and severe disease in those who are fully vaccinated.

And the rest of my point that you didn*t quote, that how do we know if it is more or less severe when Delta is spreading through through a less vulnerable population as older age groups largely vaccinated, thankfully?
It is facile to say that this " is the evolution of viruses" when even those in the scientific community cannot predict the course of this so far.

TonyMaloney

TonyMaloney wrote: »

Scotland again with a new record for daily cases - 3,887

Portugal also shooting up - 2,362 new cases

Portugal with 2,449 new cases today

FileNotFound

TonyMaloney wrote: »

Portugal with 2,449 new cases today

How are the hospitals?

I think we should look at the UK and really use it as a guide as we lag behind them by a few weeks.

So the UK which is open (very open) and having mass crowd events is at 67% first dose and 49% second dose with most people having been vaccinated with AZ which is the least effective of the vaccines. (Figures from google today)

Yet Ireland remains closed at 66% first dose and 43% second dose - with many of these vaccinated with more effective mRNA vaccines. (Figures from the Irish Times 3 days ago)

We also have a much lower population density.

I am not claiming any knowledge of the variant but if the hospitals remain clear then we should continue to open - the uk will see a negative impact way before we do and at that point the Gov can use them as the justification for any restrictions that are needed.

With our current restrictions cases are climbing recently - because the reality is there are mass gatherings outside as people haven't anything or anywhere else to go/do.

kowloonkev

Just seen that UEFA have washed their hands of any responsibility on a surge of cases by saying they are just following local government protocols.

Nothing about the pressure they put on said authorities though. Weren't games taken away from Dublin because we couldn't promise that crowds would be permitted?

FileNotFound

brickster69 wrote: »

India was probably the least vaccinated and got hit, the UK are one of the highest and might just get away with it, so not a lot to go on for those in the middle.
.

UK is at 67% first dose and 49% second dose with most people having been vaccinated with AZ which is the least effective of the vaccines. (Figures from google today)

Ireland is at 66% first dose and 43% second dose - with many of these vaccinated with more effective mRNA vaccines. (Figures from the Irish Times 3 days ago)

We are quickly becoming the most effectively vaccinated nation on earth

FileNotFound

kowloonkev wrote: »

Just seen that UEFA have washed their hands of any responsibility on a surge of cases by saying they are just following local government protocols.

Nothing about the pressure they put on said authorities though. Weren't games taken away from Dublin because we couldn't promise that crowds would be permitted?

And how delighted we are - imagine a load of England fans landing here in the middle of this argument haha.

But yes they were wrong in their approach and should be called out on it.

ginoginelli

kowloonkev wrote: »

Just seen that UEFA have washed their hands of any responsibility on a surge of cases by saying they are just following local government protocols.

Nothing about the pressure they put on said authorities though. Weren't games taken away from Dublin because we couldn't promise that crowds would be permitted?

The explosion of cases across europe really vindicates are goverments decision not to sacrifice safety standards for the games. Of course the usual morans blasted them on here. But like nearly everything else about the pandemic they got it wrong again.

TonyMaloney

FileNotFound wrote: »

How are the hospitals?

I think we should look at the UK and really use it as a guide as we lag behind them by a few weeks.

So the UK which is open (very open) and having mass crowd events is at 67% first dose and 49% second dose with most people having been vaccinated with AZ which is the least effective of the vaccines. (Figures from google today)

Yet Ireland remains closed at 66% first dose and 43% second dose - with many of these vaccinated with more effective mRNA vaccines. (Figures from the Irish Times 3 days ago)

We also have a much lower population density.

I am not claiming any knowledge of the variant but if the hospitals remain clear then we should continue to open - the uk will see a negative impact way before we do and at that point the Gov can use them as the justification for any restrictions that are needed.

With our current restrictions cases are climbing recently - because the reality is there are mass gatherings outside as people haven't anything or anywhere else to go/do.

509 in hospital, up just 5 from yesterday

Call me Al

FileNotFound wrote: »

UK is at 67% first dose and 49% second dose with most people having been vaccinated with AZ which is the least effective of the vaccines. (Figures from google today)

Ireland is at 66% first dose and 43% second dose - with many of these vaccinated with more effective mRNA vaccines. (Figures from the Irish Times 3 days ago)

We are quickly becoming the most effectively vaccinated nation on earth

Uk are at 85% and 62.5% respectively for the over 16 population, which is the population percentage your giving for Ireland.
So our rate is improving but we've a bit to go before we catch up with them.

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/vaccinations

Kewreeuss

The stadium in Budapest for Nederland versus Czech was absolutely jam packed.

FileNotFound

Call me Al wrote: »

Uk are at 85% and 62.5% respectively for the over 16 population, which is the population percentage your giving for Ireland.
So our rate is improving but we've a bit to go before we catch up with them.

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/vaccinations

Thanks for the correction - didn't realise the report had not accounted for entire population.

Much appreciated.

Micky 32

FileNotFound wrote: »

How are the hospitals?

You won’t see much info posted about the hospitals on this thread unless of course they hit the roof.
:rolleyes:

TonyMaloney

Micky 32 wrote: »

You won’t see much info posted about the hospitals on this thread unless of course they hit the roof.
:rolleyes:

TonyMaloney wrote: »

509 in hospital, up just 5 from yesterday

...

brickster69

FileNotFound wrote: »

UK is at 67% first dose and 49% second dose with most people having been vaccinated with AZ which is the least effective of the vaccines. (Figures from google today)

Ireland is at 66% first dose and 43% second dose - with many of these vaccinated with more effective mRNA vaccines. (Figures from the Irish Times 3 days ago)

We are quickly becoming the most effectively vaccinated nation on earth

It is no good comparing Ireland to the UK. You need to compare with countries who are just starting to get Delta or slightly ahead now.

FileNotFound

brickster69 wrote: »

It is no good comparing Ireland to the UK. You need to compare with countries who are just starting to get Delta or slightly ahead now.

Well if you are planning for the future - surely looking at a nation that is X weeks ahead of us in every way would be perfect no?

Goldengirl

Just posted on vaccine thread,
Dr Colm Henry stating on HSE briefing that while there are some break through in fully vaccinated as can happen with widespread community infection, as none of the vaccines can prevent 100% from infection, it is preventing serious disease and death...
" the vaccine wall is holding in UK and Scotland, unlike for example Russia" where deaths are rising due to Delta as they have much lower vaccination levels.

Micky 32

TonyMaloney wrote: »

...

You wouldn’t have posted that if you weren’t asked. You’re just interested in big scary numbers drama. Anyone that wants a balanced discussion would post both numbers for perspective.

Anyway thousands in Ireland vaxxed everyday, looking good.

hmmm

Don't see this posted earlier. Apparently a South African trial of the J&J vaccine is showing good results against Delta.

https://twitter.com/geoffreyyork/status/1410326558615740427

stephenjmcd

hmmm wrote: »

Don't see this posted earlier. Apparently a South African trial of the J&J vaccine is showing good results against Delta.

https://twitter.com/geoffreyyork/status/1410326558615740427

J&J looking very good against Delta

Wolf359f

hmmm wrote: »

Don't see this posted earlier. Apparently a South African trial of the J&J vaccine is showing good results against Delta.

https://twitter.com/geoffreyyork/status/1410326558615740427

So 6% of 1% had more then mild symptoms?
That's tiny numbers, especially for a single jab.
So for every 10,000 vaccinated, 94 had mild symptoms only 6 had more than mild symptoms.