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The Delta variant

amandstu

How might this play out?

Apparently cases in England may be doubling every 4.5 days and resultant hospitalizations are said to be possibly between 2 and 3 times more likely that with the Alpha variant.

Only 1% prevalence here at the moment seemingly.

Back of envelope modeling in my sitting room is not reassuring and I am not near to getting my second AstraZeneca jab yet( so 30% protected against symptomatic disease?)

EDIT: Have been corrected in this thread that parts of England (not England as a whole) had cases doubling every 4.5 days

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Mimon

Happydays2020 wrote: »

I would not mind seeing it also. Tony H is saying there will be exponential growth in that variant in Ireland in August. So despite the fact I will have two jabs by then I expect the most prudent action will be to leave Ireland for the month to escape it.

Was reported on Newstalk that it is already over 50% of cases here.

CIARAN_BOYLE

brickster69 wrote: »

but the case numbers will explode in a month or so.

Quiet a serious risk.

I'm really hoping that I'll get at least the first dose of a Vaccine before numbers go wild (31 years old can't register yet).

If I get the virus I'll probably be fine but I'd still like to have some protection. I know some people my age that have had severe covid.

Wolf359f

brickster69 wrote: »

Delta cases are roughly doubling every 7 days

Germany 50% of cases
France 20%
Portugal 55%
Spain 32%
Italy 17%
UK 96%
Belgium 16%
Russia 90%

Difficult to know what the exact numbers are due to lot's of them sleepwalking on the testing front and sequencing is next to zero. Deaths and hospital admissions are numbers to worry about, but the case numbers will explode in a month or so.

You would really need to see a chart, similar to they had in the UK, where they showed Alpha cases reducing and Delta increasing, but together cases were dropping until Delta overtook Alpha and cases skyrocketed.

Because our cases are kinda stagnant, it would look like delta is not growing as fast (I hope)

Micky 32

https://twitter.com/laoneill111/status/1410155656129228800?s=21

funnydoggy

Micky 32 wrote: »

https://twitter.com/laoneill111/status/1410155656129228800?s=21

We're closer and closer to this too. Can't wait.

brickster69

Micky 32 wrote: »

You’re on a roll there aren’t you? Mop the froth off the side of your face please.

The vaccines work without doubt. The evidence is there. Thousands and thousands are put into arms everyday. I predict it won’t be as bad as some think it will be. Next couple of months will make a huge difference as millions more will have been administered, Vaccines work.

I’m confident of this :

“”Covid vaccination programs could come to the rescue if countries in Europe can deploy shots fast enough. A study by Public Health England in May showed that having both doses of the Covid vaccines developed by AstraZeneca-Oxford University and Pfizer-BioNTech (the vaccines most widely offered in Europe) provide effective protection against the delta variant.“”

Nobody is saying vaccines don't work of course they work.

brickster69

Wolf359f wrote: »

Y

Because our cases are kinda stagnant, it would look like delta is not growing as fast (I hope)

I agree, it looks that way

Deeper Blue

brickster69 wrote: »

More on things

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/30/the-delta-variant-is-spreading-in-europe-and-cant-be-stopped.html

Absolutely terrifying #holdfirm

brickster69

Deeper Blue wrote: »

Absolutely terrifying #holdfirm

For some it will be. As long as deaths and hospitals don't go up they can go up what they want.

TonyMaloney

Wolf359f wrote: »

You would really need to see a chart, similar to they had in the UK, where they showed Alpha cases reducing and Delta increasing, but together cases were dropping until Delta overtook Alpha and cases skyrocketed.

Because our cases are kinda stagnant, it would look like delta is not growing as fast (I hope)

Hopefully, but my fear would be that declining alpha cases are masking the growth of delta.

From the sounds of things that's exactly what's happening. 20% of cases on the 21st, 50% as of yesterday.
Our data is all over the place and we're not doing enough sequencing anyway so it's very hard to get a clear picture of what's happening, but I suspect we're a couple of weeks behind Portugal in terms of incidence level.

Mimon

TonyMaloney wrote: »

I don't suppose you've lucky enough to have a touch of asthma?

if so ring your GP. You might be surprised.
I've friends who've barely seen an inhaler in 30 years who are now fully vaxxed

So you are friends with a bunch of selfish cnuts?

funnydoggy

Mimon wrote: »

So you are friends with a bunch of selfish cnuts?

Disgusting comment.

CIARAN_BOYLE

TonyMaloney wrote: »

I don't suppose you've lucky enough to have a touch of asthma?

if so ring your GP. You might be surprised.
I've friends who've barely seen an inhaler in 30 years who are now fully vaxxed

I was diagnosed with Asthma for 20 years.

Turned out after the fact that I had a mild allergy to one of the inhalers that created a cough and a shortness of breath consistent with asthma.

Not sure how much asthma I actually had and for how long.

I do agree many people are getting the vaccine that shouldn't be getting it through their gp. Doesn't mean I'm going to be one of them.

TonyMaloney

CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »

I was diagnosed with Asthma for 20 years.

Turned out after the fact that I had a mild allergy to one of the inhalers that created a cough and a shortness of breath consistent with asthma.

Not sure how much asthma I actually had and for how long.

I do agree many people are getting the vaccine that shouldn't be getting it through their gp. Doesn't mean I'm going to be one of them.

I've become aware that you might be thinking I'm talking about "my friends"

I waited my turn too. Despite having mild asthma as a teen. First dose on Monday.

What I think is happening is that GPs are giving out spare doses to anyone they know has any sort of chronic respiratory condition.
I wouldn't begrudge anyone who does this at this stage of the game. It's not as though you're pushing a diabetic granny aside to get your pfizer.

Wolf359f

TonyMaloney wrote: »

Hopefully, but my fear would be that declining alpha cases are masking the growth of delta.

From the sounds of things that's exactly what's happening. 20% of cases on the 21st, 50% as of yesterday.
Our data is all over the place and we're not doing enough sequencing anyway so it's very hard to get a clear picture of what's happening, but I suspect we're a couple of weeks behind Portugal in terms of incidence level.

Those % you are quoting are non Alpha Variants. They use a certain assay to target a missing S gene found only in Alpha, so it's used as a proxy to detect Alpha.
So the 20% or 50% are non Alpha variants, of which 3 make up the most, Delta, Kappa & B.1.1.318 (currently a VOI). Hopefully they start using the new assay that can detect Delta without the need to sequence.
Interesting site to see the variants dominant around the world

TonyMaloney

Wolf359f wrote: »

Those % you are quoting are non Alpha Variants. They use a certain assay to target a missing S gene found only in Alpha, so it's used as a proxy to detect Alpha.
So the 20% or 50% are non Alpha variants, of which 3 make up the most, Delta, Kappa & B.1.1.318 (currently a VOI). Hopefully they start using the new assay that can detect Delta without the need to sequence.
Interesting site to see the variants dominant around the world

I know, but they're using S-gene as a rough proxy for sequencing. And if 50% of our recent cases weren't alpha, then most were probably delta.

It's all rather inadequate. Hard to be sure of anything.
I wonder could we reach out to a country like Denmark for a bit of help with sequencing.

Ballynally

The UK is way ahead in data analysis in terms of Covid19.
When they produce an analysis they also give you links to the actual data they used to come to their analysis so you can take a look and possibly come to a different conclusion or spot the caveats.
In Ireland we have experts presenting us with easy to read graphs with no substantial extra data or links for anyone to check.
They want to stop people actually looking at the data or have other institutions do an independent analysis.
What they are hoping for is a general endorcement by an EU body without getting into details. A form of virtue signalling.
Just..give..us..the..data

Tenger

Ballynally wrote: »

The UK is way ahead in data analysis in terms of Covid19.
When they produce an analysis they also give you links to the actual data they used to come to their analysis so you can take a look and possibly come to a different conclusion or spot the caveats.
In Ireland we have experts presenting us with easy to read graphs with no substantial extra data or links for anyone to check.
They want to stop people actually looking at the data or have other institutions do an independent analysis.
What they are hoping for is a general endorcement by an EU body without getting into details. A form of virtue signalling.
Just..give..us..the..data

Dont forget that Stephen Donnolly confirmed last night that there has been no "independent analysis" of the NPHET advice or predictions.

Wolf359f

TonyMaloney wrote: »

I know, but they're using S-gene as a rough proxy for sequencing. And if 50% of our recent cases weren't alpha, then most were probably delta.

It's all rather inadequate. Hard to be sure of anything.
I wonder could we reach out to a country like Denmark for a bit of help with sequencing.

And that in a nutshell is the issue, because 50% of our cases are pretty much confirmed Alpha, that means the other 50% is most probable Delta. No need to facts or data, just assume so?

We don't need help sequencing, despite all the criticism etc... we're actually sequencing a very high % of cases. The main issue is the delay from sampling to getting the sequencing done, I don't think it's down to laziness, could be more down to the process taking time etc...

amandstu

TonyMaloney wrote: »

I've become aware that you might be thinking I'm talking about "my friends"
I waited my turn too. Despite having mild asthma as a teen. First dose on Monday.

What I think is happening is that GPs are giving out spare doses to anyone they know has any sort of chronic respiratory condition.
I wouldn't begrudge anyone who does this at this stage of the game. It's not as though you're pushing a diabetic granny aside to get your pfizer.

It is wrong for you to advocate deceitful queue jumping techniques -and for the mods here to allow it.

Ballynally

The vaccines have greater efficacy against the Delta variant compared to Alpha, if you look at both hospitalisations and deaths.
I said i wasnt going to produce/compare numbers but i will make an exception.
It is too beautiful to ignore:
The amount of deaths from the Delta variant in the under 50s in the UK up to june 24 is:
0 (yes, you read that right). Official UK figures.

OwenM

TonyMaloney wrote: »

I know, but they're using S-gene as a rough proxy for sequencing. And if 50% of our recent cases weren't alpha, then most were probably delta.

It's all rather inadequate. Hard to be sure of anything.
I wonder could we reach out to a country like Denmark for a bit of help with sequencing.

I would agree, delta has squeezed out just about every other variant in the UK. But what is telling is the volume of people in hospital is not following the case volume, whether that's a delta characteristic or due to the age cohorts getting infected is immaterial. Delta has accounted for >75% of cases in the UK for several weeks now. UK case numbers have gone from about 3k a day in May to 18k yesterday (factor of 6 increase) but numbers in hospital have only risen from about 900 to 1500 - not even doubled, admissions have increased slightly more, but this I interpret as people requiring shorter stays in hospital.

Cases on their own are not a valid metric any more.

Man Vs ManUre

I blame Mumford and Sons for all this. They named their last album Delta. And their banjo player has recently left the band as he could not accept that they introduced Delta to the world.

amandstu

Ballynally wrote: »

The vaccines have greater efficacy against the Delta variant compared to Alpha, if you look at both hospitalisations and deaths.
I said i wasnt going to produce/compare numbers but i will make an exception.
It is too beautiful to ignore:
The amount of deaths from the Delta variant in the under 50s in the UK up to june 24 is:
0 (yes, you read that right). Official UK figures.

And from the Alpha variant (in the same cohort)?

Ballynally

Tenger wrote: »

Dont forget that Stephen Donnolly confirmed last night that there has been no "independent analysis" of the NPHET advice or predictions.

Yes, i am aware of that. That is ok by me IF NPHET will just give us the data they used to come to their conclusions.
If that is not forthcoming, TH's head should roll.
And/or Stephen Donnelly, MM.
This is what ALL the opposition parties and government party rebels should rally behind.
It is a simple proposal devoid of the complexities of vax passports etc.If they don't it tells us the state of politics in Ireland.
So far, i believe SF has been calling for that..

brickster69

TonyMaloney wrote: »

Hopefully, but my fear would be that declining alpha cases are masking the growth of delta.

From the sounds of things that's exactly what's happening. 20% of cases on the 21st, 50% as of yesterday.
Our data is all over the place and we're not doing enough sequencing anyway so it's very hard to get a clear picture of what's happening, but I suspect we're a couple of weeks behind Portugal in terms of incidence level.

It's amazing really, it's like someone flicking a switch

https://twitter.com/petervanham/status/1410215458020593670

Ballynally

amandstu wrote: »

And from the Alpha variant (in the same cohort)?

Sorry, no more numbers. I was making an exception.
Ive had some bad experiences w unqualified people who are not able to judge the relationship between data points in a multi factoral analysis, so i wont.
Go and dig and make up your own mind:

https://assets.publishing.service.gov...

Edit: that link doesnt seem to work.
It probably needs '.uk' after 'gov'

amandstu

brickster69 wrote: »

It's amazing really, it's like someone flicking a switch

https://twitter.com/petervanham/status/1410215458020593670

Some graphic! Really self explanatory .Like a horror movie.

amandstu

Ballynally wrote: »

Sorry, no more numbers. I was making an exception.
Ive had some bad experiences w unqualified people who are not able to judge the relationship between data points in a multi factoral analysis, so i wont.
Go and dig and make up your own mind:

https://assets.publishing.service.gov...

Edit: that link doesnt seem to work.
It probably needs.co.uk after gov

Link not working.(cross posted)

Tried the suffix.Didn't help.

Ballynally

amandstu wrote: »

Link not working.(cross posted)

Tried the suffix.Didn't help.

I am following dr. Mobeen.
The link was on his Youtube site in the description
https://youtu.be/osiVD0KdjCU

The link works if you click on it

Btw, the answer about deaths fr Alpha compared to Delta for the under 50s is given at 16.59 min..