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The Delta variant

amandstu

How might this play out?

Apparently cases in England may be doubling every 4.5 days and resultant hospitalizations are said to be possibly between 2 and 3 times more likely that with the Alpha variant.

Only 1% prevalence here at the moment seemingly.

Back of envelope modeling in my sitting room is not reassuring and I am not near to getting my second AstraZeneca jab yet( so 30% protected against symptomatic disease?)

EDIT: Have been corrected in this thread that parts of England (not England as a whole) had cases doubling every 4.5 days

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TonyMaloney

Wolf359f wrote: »

Those % you are quoting are non Alpha Variants. They use a certain assay to target a missing S gene found only in Alpha, so it's used as a proxy to detect Alpha.
So the 20% or 50% are non Alpha variants, of which 3 make up the most, Delta, Kappa & B.1.1.318 (currently a VOI). Hopefully they start using the new assay that can detect Delta without the need to sequence.
Interesting site to see the variants dominant around the world

I know, but they're using S-gene as a rough proxy for sequencing. And if 50% of our recent cases weren't alpha, then most were probably delta.

It's all rather inadequate. Hard to be sure of anything.
I wonder could we reach out to a country like Denmark for a bit of help with sequencing.

Wolf359f

TonyMaloney wrote: »

Hopefully, but my fear would be that declining alpha cases are masking the growth of delta.

From the sounds of things that's exactly what's happening. 20% of cases on the 21st, 50% as of yesterday.
Our data is all over the place and we're not doing enough sequencing anyway so it's very hard to get a clear picture of what's happening, but I suspect we're a couple of weeks behind Portugal in terms of incidence level.

Those % you are quoting are non Alpha Variants. They use a certain assay to target a missing S gene found only in Alpha, so it's used as a proxy to detect Alpha.
So the 20% or 50% are non Alpha variants, of which 3 make up the most, Delta, Kappa & B.1.1.318 (currently a VOI). Hopefully they start using the new assay that can detect Delta without the need to sequence.
Interesting site to see the variants dominant around the world

TonyMaloney

CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »

I was diagnosed with Asthma for 20 years.

Turned out after the fact that I had a mild allergy to one of the inhalers that created a cough and a shortness of breath consistent with asthma.

Not sure how much asthma I actually had and for how long.

I do agree many people are getting the vaccine that shouldn't be getting it through their gp. Doesn't mean I'm going to be one of them.

I've become aware that you might be thinking I'm talking about "my friends"

I waited my turn too. Despite having mild asthma as a teen. First dose on Monday.

What I think is happening is that GPs are giving out spare doses to anyone they know has any sort of chronic respiratory condition.
I wouldn't begrudge anyone who does this at this stage of the game. It's not as though you're pushing a diabetic granny aside to get your pfizer.

CIARAN_BOYLE

TonyMaloney wrote: »

I don't suppose you've lucky enough to have a touch of asthma?

if so ring your GP. You might be surprised.
I've friends who've barely seen an inhaler in 30 years who are now fully vaxxed

I was diagnosed with Asthma for 20 years.

Turned out after the fact that I had a mild allergy to one of the inhalers that created a cough and a shortness of breath consistent with asthma.

Not sure how much asthma I actually had and for how long.

I do agree many people are getting the vaccine that shouldn't be getting it through their gp. Doesn't mean I'm going to be one of them.

funnydoggy

Mimon wrote: »

So you are friends with a bunch of selfish cnuts?

Disgusting comment.

Mimon

TonyMaloney wrote: »

I don't suppose you've lucky enough to have a touch of asthma?

if so ring your GP. You might be surprised.
I've friends who've barely seen an inhaler in 30 years who are now fully vaxxed

So you are friends with a bunch of selfish cnuts?

TonyMaloney

Wolf359f wrote: »

You would really need to see a chart, similar to they had in the UK, where they showed Alpha cases reducing and Delta increasing, but together cases were dropping until Delta overtook Alpha and cases skyrocketed.

Because our cases are kinda stagnant, it would look like delta is not growing as fast (I hope)

Hopefully, but my fear would be that declining alpha cases are masking the growth of delta.

From the sounds of things that's exactly what's happening. 20% of cases on the 21st, 50% as of yesterday.
Our data is all over the place and we're not doing enough sequencing anyway so it's very hard to get a clear picture of what's happening, but I suspect we're a couple of weeks behind Portugal in terms of incidence level.

brickster69

Deeper Blue wrote: »

Absolutely terrifying #holdfirm

For some it will be. As long as deaths and hospitals don't go up they can go up what they want.

Deeper Blue

brickster69 wrote: »

More on things

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/30/the-delta-variant-is-spreading-in-europe-and-cant-be-stopped.html

Absolutely terrifying #holdfirm

brickster69

Wolf359f wrote: »

Y

Because our cases are kinda stagnant, it would look like delta is not growing as fast (I hope)

I agree, it looks that way

brickster69

Micky 32 wrote: »

You’re on a roll there aren’t you? Mop the froth off the side of your face please.

The vaccines work without doubt. The evidence is there. Thousands and thousands are put into arms everyday. I predict it won’t be as bad as some think it will be. Next couple of months will make a huge difference as millions more will have been administered, Vaccines work.

I’m confident of this :

“”Covid vaccination programs could come to the rescue if countries in Europe can deploy shots fast enough. A study by Public Health England in May showed that having both doses of the Covid vaccines developed by AstraZeneca-Oxford University and Pfizer-BioNTech (the vaccines most widely offered in Europe) provide effective protection against the delta variant.“”

Nobody is saying vaccines don't work of course they work.

funnydoggy

Micky 32 wrote: »

https://twitter.com/laoneill111/status/1410155656129228800?s=21

We're closer and closer to this too. Can't wait.

Micky 32

https://twitter.com/laoneill111/status/1410155656129228800?s=21

Wolf359f

brickster69 wrote: »

Delta cases are roughly doubling every 7 days

Germany 50% of cases
France 20%
Portugal 55%
Spain 32%
Italy 17%
UK 96%
Belgium 16%
Russia 90%

Difficult to know what the exact numbers are due to lot's of them sleepwalking on the testing front and sequencing is next to zero. Deaths and hospital admissions are numbers to worry about, but the case numbers will explode in a month or so.

You would really need to see a chart, similar to they had in the UK, where they showed Alpha cases reducing and Delta increasing, but together cases were dropping until Delta overtook Alpha and cases skyrocketed.

Because our cases are kinda stagnant, it would look like delta is not growing as fast (I hope)

CIARAN_BOYLE

brickster69 wrote: »

but the case numbers will explode in a month or so.

Quiet a serious risk.

I'm really hoping that I'll get at least the first dose of a Vaccine before numbers go wild (31 years old can't register yet).

If I get the virus I'll probably be fine but I'd still like to have some protection. I know some people my age that have had severe covid.

Mimon

Happydays2020 wrote: »

I would not mind seeing it also. Tony H is saying there will be exponential growth in that variant in Ireland in August. So despite the fact I will have two jabs by then I expect the most prudent action will be to leave Ireland for the month to escape it.

Was reported on Newstalk that it is already over 50% of cases here.

Micky 32

brickster69 wrote: »

More on things

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/30/the-delta-variant-is-spreading-in-europe-and-cant-be-stopped.html

You’re on a roll there aren’t you? Mop the froth off the side of your face please.

The vaccines work without doubt. The evidence is there. Thousands and thousands are put into arms everyday. I predict it won’t be as bad as some think it will be. Next couple of months will make a huge difference as millions more will have been administered, Vaccines work.

I’m confident of this ( from your link):

“”Covid vaccination programs could come to the rescue if countries in Europe can deploy shots fast enough. A study by Public Health England in May showed that having both doses of the Covid vaccines developed by AstraZeneca-Oxford University and Pfizer-BioNTech (the vaccines most widely offered in Europe) provide effective protection against the delta variant.“”

brickster69

More on things

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/30/the-delta-variant-is-spreading-in-europe-and-cant-be-stopped.html

brickster69

CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »

Does anyone have stats on the prevalence of Delta in different countries in Europe.

Delta cases are roughly doubling every 7 days

Germany 50% of cases
France 20%
Portugal 55%
Spain 32%
Italy 17%
UK 96%
Belgium 16%
Russia 90%

Difficult to know what the exact numbers are due to lot's of them sleepwalking on the testing front and sequencing is next to zero. Deaths and hospital admissions are numbers to worry about, but the case numbers will explode in a month or so.

Ballynally

Lumen wrote: »

From 23 June.

ECDC Threat Assessment Brief: Implications for the EU/EEA on the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 Delta (B.1.617.2) variant of concern
https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/sites/default/files/documents/Implications-for-the-EU-EEA-on-the-spread-of-SARS-CoV-2-Delta-VOC-23-June-2021_2.pdf

Source: https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/publications-data/threat-assessment-emergence-and-impact-sars-cov-2-delta-variant

'May', 'could' 'might', 'some modeling suggest', 'more likely to'.
That is enough for me to indicate guesswork io data.
I do not agree w their assessment in terms of % of higher transmissibility either.
I think it is out of date. Recent data suggests 20-30%.It is enough for a new variant to become dominant which is the only trustworthy assumption in this report as is noting increased vaccinations leading to better protection.
Also, saying new variants are likely to lead to more hospitalisations is stating the bleeding obvious.
Anyway, it is a general threat assessment and should be seen as such, not as evidence to support draconian measures..

Ballynally

TonyMaloney wrote: »

I did post a deaths chart.

They're growing steadily from a very low base, but as we know, deaths lag cases significantly

You need to get checked. You are suffering from low nr fallacy syndrom.
And add hospital numbers to your checklist. Then relate infection to hospital admissions and admissions to actual hospital numbers.
Then you can see the progress. Use UK numbers as they are further down the line.
Then report back and give us the progress data. Please!

[Deleted User]

Happydays2020 wrote: »

I would not mind seeing it also. Tony H is saying there will be exponential growth in that variant in Ireland in August. So despite the fact I will have two jabs by then I expect the most prudent action will be to leave Ireland for the month to escape it.

Lumen

CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »

Does anyone have stats on the prevalence of Delta in different countries in Europe.

From 23 June.

ECDC Threat Assessment Brief: Implications for the EU/EEA on the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 Delta (B.1.617.2) variant of concern
https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/sites/default/files/documents/Implications-for-the-EU-EEA-on-the-spread-of-SARS-CoV-2-Delta-VOC-23-June-2021_2.pdf

Source: https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/publications-data/threat-assessment-emergence-and-impact-sars-cov-2-delta-variant

Happydays2020

CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »

Does anyone have stats on the prevalence of Delta in different countries in Europe.

I would not mind seeing it also. Tony H is saying there will be exponential growth in that variant in Ireland in August. So despite the fact I will have two jabs by then I expect the most prudent action will be to leave Ireland for the month to escape it.

CIARAN_BOYLE

Does anyone have stats on the prevalence of Delta in different countries in Europe.

beaz2018

TonyMaloney wrote: »

https://twitter.com/davidmcw/status/1409837721787547649?s=20

I don't know what the doubling time is for Scotland at the moment.
Oliver Johnson (@BristOliver) has the doubling time for England at 11 days, so I'll quickly run with that even though it's clearly too conservative.

June 28: 3,285 cases
July 09: 6,570
July 20: 13,140
July 31: 26,280

That's a very simplistic projection, not a prediction. I just mean to illustrate that Scotland may be weeks away from numbers they would've considered next to impossible a short time ago.

But, as I'm sure someone will tell me, that's just cases. What's really important is hospitalisation & deaths.
Well unfortunately the link between cases and hospitalisation & death has not yet been broken. It's clearly much improved from January, but I still see potential for it to get pretty nasty over there again.

As ever, hospitalisations follow cases. And deaths lag hospitalisations.

All this to say that I don't think NPHET's most pessimistic scenario is implausible.
It's unlikely. That's why it's labelled 'pessimistic'.
But it's far from impossible. Scotland, I worry, illustrate that quite clearly.

Sturgeon said yesterday they may be over their peak. Keep trying though

dominatinMC

Woody79 wrote: »

Protection from infection.

Everyone is saying delta variant can infect someone double dosed better than Alpha-MRNA/AZ.

What rock have you been hiding under?:rolleyes:

I am so scared ****less of the big bad delta variant that, yes, you're right, I've been hiding under a big rock :rolleyes:

Had you clarified your post, I would have known if you were talking about infection or illness. Everyone is saying that hospitalisation/illness is the important metric now, not infection.

What rock have you been hiding under?

[Deleted User]

dominatinMC wrote: »

Who is saying that? The information in the post you just quoted shows the opposite..

Protection from infection.

Everyone is saying delta variant can infect someone double dosed better than Alpha-MRNA/AZ.

What rock have you been hiding under?:rolleyes:

dominatinMC

Woody79 wrote: »

If this variant is much more dangerous and vaccines less effective against them, why has hospitalisation rates with vaccinated persons improved with this strain?

I heard early on the virus over time will become more infectious but less deadly.

I think that is the case with Delta.

Most if not all of us are going to be infected with covid in the long run but with less severe strains and most people with a level of immunity against it vaccine/previous infection.

Who is saying that? The information in the post you just quoted shows the opposite..

[Deleted User]

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/29/who-is-most-at-risk-from-the-delta-variant.html

So far in UK, no person under 50 that has been double dosed has died of Delta variant.

The big threat is older persons, when high virus is circulating.

Boosters for HCW and over 50s in autumn me thinks.