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The Delta variant

amandstu

How might this play out?

Apparently cases in England may be doubling every 4.5 days and resultant hospitalizations are said to be possibly between 2 and 3 times more likely that with the Alpha variant.

Only 1% prevalence here at the moment seemingly.

Back of envelope modeling in my sitting room is not reassuring and I am not near to getting my second AstraZeneca jab yet( so 30% protected against symptomatic disease?)

EDIT: Have been corrected in this thread that parts of England (not England as a whole) had cases doubling every 4.5 days

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alibab

OwenM wrote: »

Sounds like you were fed bull****, it directly contradicts the HSE website which has from the beginning been promoted as the 'one source' of truthful advice to counter all the loons and anitvaxers etc.

It’s not bull I am in full isolation as per HSE public health . Confirmed Delta variant which is different . Despite being fully vaccinated I have been asked to fully isolate. My sons isolation increased to 14 days from 10 . This is specific to this variant.

Sierra Oscar

OwenM wrote: »

Sounds like you were fed bull****, it directly contradicts the HSE website which has from the beginning been promoted as the 'one source' of truthful advice to counter all the loons and anitvaxers etc.

Close contacts of a variant of concern

A variant of concern is a more infectious strain of the virus.

If you're a close contact of a person that tests positive for a COVID-19 (coronavirus) variant of concern you need to:
get tested for COVID-19

self-isolate (stay in your room) for 14 days

You need to do both, even if you are fully vaccinated.

There is different advice for close contacts of a person that tests positive for a regular strain of COVID-19 (coronavirus)

Chris_5339762

The Kent variant is also a Variant of Concern, so in theory it applies there too.

[Deleted User]

Where in the name of blazes are nphet coming from with 700k new cases and 2000 deaths between now and September?
Jaysis
That would have to be mostly young people dying
Shortly there won't be 700000 adults left to vaccinate

TonyMaloney

https://twitter.com/davidmcw/status/1409837721787547649?s=20

6034073

I don't know what the doubling time is for Scotland at the moment.
Oliver Johnson (@BristOliver) has the doubling time for England at 11 days, so I'll quickly run with that even though it's clearly too conservative.

June 28: 3,285 cases
July 09: 6,570
July 20: 13,140
July 31: 26,280

That's a very simplistic projection, not a prediction. I just mean to illustrate that Scotland may be weeks away from numbers they would've considered next to impossible a short time ago.

But, as I'm sure someone will tell me, that's just cases. What's really important is hospitalisation & deaths.
Well unfortunately the link between cases and hospitalisation & death has not yet been broken. It's clearly much improved from January, but I still see potential for it to get pretty nasty over there again.

As ever, hospitalisations follow cases. And deaths lag hospitalisations.

All this to say that I don't think NPHET's most pessimistic scenario is implausible.
It's unlikely. That's why it's labelled 'pessimistic'.
But it's far from impossible. Scotland, I worry, illustrate that quite clearly.

[Deleted User]

TonyMaloney wrote: »

https://twitter.com/davidmcw/status/1409837721787547649?s=20

I don't know what the doubling time is for Scotland at the moment.
Oliver Johnson (@BristOliver) has the doubling time for England at 11 days, so I'll quickly run with that even though it's clearly too conservative.

June 28: 3,285 cases
July 09: 6,570
July 20: 13,140
July 31: 26,280

That's a very simplistic projection, not a prediction. I just mean to illustrate that Scotland may be weeks away from numbers they would've considered next to impossible a short time ago.

But, as I'm sure someone will tell me, that's just cases. What's really important is hospitalisation & deaths.
Well unfortunately the link between cases and hospitalisation & death has not yet been broken. It's clearly much improved from January, but I still see potential for it to get pretty nasty over there again.

As ever, hospitalisations follow cases. And deaths lag hospitalisations.

All this to say that I don't think NPHET's most pessimistic scenario is implausible.
It's unlikely. That's why it's labelled 'pessimistic'.
But it's far from impossible. Scotland, I worry, illustrate that quite clearly.

You didn't post a graph for deaths funnily enough. If you had then we'd be about to see 50-100 daily deaths in Scotland.

TonyMaloney

Deleted User wrote: »

You didn't post a graph for deaths funnily enough. If you had then we'd be about to see 50-100 daily deaths in Scotland.

I did post a deaths chart.

They're growing steadily from a very low base, but as we know, deaths lag cases significantly

Wolf359f

TonyMaloney wrote: »

I did post a deaths chart.

They're growing steadily from a very low base, but as we know, deaths lag cases significantly

Scotland definitely seem to be an outlier or further along the delta wave than the rest of the UK. I think it's Scotland and Portugal to be watching to see what happens. Scotland have about 40 daily hospital admissions now, about 20% of their last peak.

TonyMaloney

Wolf359f wrote: »

Scotland definitely seem to be an outlier or further along the delta wave than the rest of the UK. I think it's Scotland and Portugal to be watching to see what happens. Scotland have about 40 daily hospital admissions now, about 20% of their last peak.

Agreed.

Portugal just posted over 1,700 daily cases today. Similar level of vaccination to us. Not a great situation.

Relatively tough restrictions on Lisbon, but it looks like the cat's out of the bag anyway.
People here are taking indoor dining not opening pretty hard. Imagine if NPHET proposed this for Dublin.

The restrictions include restaurants and cafes closing at 3:30pm on weekends, with limits on how many customers can be served. Wedding and baptism venues will be allowed to fill only 25 percent of their capacity, down from the current 50 percent, while weekend travel into and out of Lisbon will not be allowed.

[Deleted User]

TonyMaloney wrote: »

I did post a deaths chart.

They're growing steadily from a very low base, but as we know, deaths lag cases significantly

Herp de derp. I messed that post up.

Meant to point out where your graph starts. Because cases are now where they were last time Scotland had a wave with a peak. So deaths should increase 10x to get to the same level as then?

[Deleted User]

OwenM wrote: »

Correct:

If this variant is much more dangerous and vaccines less effective against them, why has hospitalisation rates with vaccinated persons improved with this strain?

I heard early on the virus over time will become more infectious but less deadly.

I think that is the case with Delta.

Most if not all of us are going to be infected with covid in the long run but with less severe strains and most people with a level of immunity against it vaccine/previous infection.

saabsaab

Woody79 wrote: »

If this variant is much more dangerous and vaccines less effective against them, why has hospitalisation rates with vaccinated persons improved with this strain?

I heard early on the virus over time will become more infectious but less deadly.

I think that is the case with Delta.

Most if not all of us are going to be infected with covid in the long run but with less severe strains and most people with a level of immunity against it vaccine/previous infection.

We hope that's the case! I guess we have unnecessary foreign travel to thank for importing new strains.

ShineOn7

NPHET's full modelling is bizarre compared to anywhere else

No Delta

Cases 21,000
Hospital Admissions 405
ICU 55
Deaths 80

Optimistic

Cases 81,000
Hospital Admissions 1,530
ICU 195
Deaths 165

Central 1

Cases 187,000
Hospital Admissions 3,490
ICU 450
Deaths 545

Central 2

Cases 408,000
Hospital Admissions 7,690
ICU 985
Deaths 1,230

Pessimistic

Cases 681,900
Hospital Admissions 12,985
ICU 1,685
Deaths 2,170

Based on 1 July 2021 to 30 September 2021

ShineOn7

The Government will seek a second, independent opinion from the likes of the World Health Organization or the European Centre for Disease Control on the figures presented to them by the National Public Health Emergency Team projecting the possible impact of the Delta variant, a Green Party minister has said.

Speaking on RTÉ Raidió na Gaeltachta, Minister for State Ossian Smyth said: "We will be looking at it again independently... on the figures outside of NPHET. We will ask them [an independent authority] to look at the figures independently."

https://www.rte.ie/news/2021/0629/1232045-nphet-letter/

[Deleted User]

ShineOn7 wrote: »

NPHET's full modelling is bizarre compared to anywhere else

No Delta

Cases 21,000
Hospital Admissions 405
ICU 55
Deaths 80

Optimistic

Cases 81,000
Hospital Admissions 1,530
ICU 195
Deaths 165

Central 1

Cases 187,000
Hospital Admissions 3,490
ICU 450
Deaths 545

Central 2

Cases 408,000
Hospital Admissions 7,690
ICU 985
Deaths 1,230

Pessimistic

Cases 681,900
Hospital Admissions 12,985
ICU 1,685
Deaths 2,170

Based on 1 July 2021 to 30 September 2021

I think im on the negative side of things with regards covid, but that has shocked me.

I blind man could have seen opening restaurants with delta on the rise and vaccination at a critical point was not going to happen.

I could be wrong but I call bull**** on the above with regards cases and especially with regards to hospitalisations and deaths.

It reminds me of McConkeys suggestions last September.

Maybe they are painting this picture to legitimise keeping pubs closed to all the critics.

I think pubs and indoor restaurants should be closed until end of August when we could reach decent herd immunity with vaccination.

Then I think we all have to "live with covid", whatever that means.

saabsaab

ionnn wrote: »

Oh give it a rest

No.

[Deleted User]

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/29/who-is-most-at-risk-from-the-delta-variant.html

So far in UK, no person under 50 that has been double dosed has died of Delta variant.

The big threat is older persons, when high virus is circulating.

Boosters for HCW and over 50s in autumn me thinks.

dominatinMC

Woody79 wrote: »

If this variant is much more dangerous and vaccines less effective against them, why has hospitalisation rates with vaccinated persons improved with this strain?

I heard early on the virus over time will become more infectious but less deadly.

I think that is the case with Delta.

Most if not all of us are going to be infected with covid in the long run but with less severe strains and most people with a level of immunity against it vaccine/previous infection.

Who is saying that? The information in the post you just quoted shows the opposite..

[Deleted User]

dominatinMC wrote: »

Who is saying that? The information in the post you just quoted shows the opposite..

Protection from infection.

Everyone is saying delta variant can infect someone double dosed better than Alpha-MRNA/AZ.

What rock have you been hiding under?:rolleyes:

dominatinMC

Woody79 wrote: »

Protection from infection.

Everyone is saying delta variant can infect someone double dosed better than Alpha-MRNA/AZ.

What rock have you been hiding under?:rolleyes:

I am so scared ****less of the big bad delta variant that, yes, you're right, I've been hiding under a big rock :rolleyes:

Had you clarified your post, I would have known if you were talking about infection or illness. Everyone is saying that hospitalisation/illness is the important metric now, not infection.

What rock have you been hiding under?

beaz2018

TonyMaloney wrote: »

https://twitter.com/davidmcw/status/1409837721787547649?s=20

I don't know what the doubling time is for Scotland at the moment.
Oliver Johnson (@BristOliver) has the doubling time for England at 11 days, so I'll quickly run with that even though it's clearly too conservative.

June 28: 3,285 cases
July 09: 6,570
July 20: 13,140
July 31: 26,280

That's a very simplistic projection, not a prediction. I just mean to illustrate that Scotland may be weeks away from numbers they would've considered next to impossible a short time ago.

But, as I'm sure someone will tell me, that's just cases. What's really important is hospitalisation & deaths.
Well unfortunately the link between cases and hospitalisation & death has not yet been broken. It's clearly much improved from January, but I still see potential for it to get pretty nasty over there again.

As ever, hospitalisations follow cases. And deaths lag hospitalisations.

All this to say that I don't think NPHET's most pessimistic scenario is implausible.
It's unlikely. That's why it's labelled 'pessimistic'.
But it's far from impossible. Scotland, I worry, illustrate that quite clearly.

Sturgeon said yesterday they may be over their peak. Keep trying though

CIARAN_BOYLE

Does anyone have stats on the prevalence of Delta in different countries in Europe.

Happydays2020

CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »

Does anyone have stats on the prevalence of Delta in different countries in Europe.

I would not mind seeing it also. Tony H is saying there will be exponential growth in that variant in Ireland in August. So despite the fact I will have two jabs by then I expect the most prudent action will be to leave Ireland for the month to escape it.

Lumen

CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »

Does anyone have stats on the prevalence of Delta in different countries in Europe.

From 23 June.

ECDC Threat Assessment Brief: Implications for the EU/EEA on the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 Delta (B.1.617.2) variant of concern
https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/sites/default/files/documents/Implications-for-the-EU-EEA-on-the-spread-of-SARS-CoV-2-Delta-VOC-23-June-2021_2.pdf

Source: https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/publications-data/threat-assessment-emergence-and-impact-sars-cov-2-delta-variant

[Deleted User]

Happydays2020 wrote: »

I would not mind seeing it also. Tony H is saying there will be exponential growth in that variant in Ireland in August. So despite the fact I will have two jabs by then I expect the most prudent action will be to leave Ireland for the month to escape it.

Ballynally

TonyMaloney wrote: »

I did post a deaths chart.

They're growing steadily from a very low base, but as we know, deaths lag cases significantly

You need to get checked. You are suffering from low nr fallacy syndrom.
And add hospital numbers to your checklist. Then relate infection to hospital admissions and admissions to actual hospital numbers.
Then you can see the progress. Use UK numbers as they are further down the line.
Then report back and give us the progress data. Please!

Ballynally

Lumen wrote: »

From 23 June.

ECDC Threat Assessment Brief: Implications for the EU/EEA on the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 Delta (B.1.617.2) variant of concern
https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/sites/default/files/documents/Implications-for-the-EU-EEA-on-the-spread-of-SARS-CoV-2-Delta-VOC-23-June-2021_2.pdf

Source: https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/publications-data/threat-assessment-emergence-and-impact-sars-cov-2-delta-variant

'May', 'could' 'might', 'some modeling suggest', 'more likely to'.
That is enough for me to indicate guesswork io data.
I do not agree w their assessment in terms of % of higher transmissibility either.
I think it is out of date. Recent data suggests 20-30%.It is enough for a new variant to become dominant which is the only trustworthy assumption in this report as is noting increased vaccinations leading to better protection.
Also, saying new variants are likely to lead to more hospitalisations is stating the bleeding obvious.
Anyway, it is a general threat assessment and should be seen as such, not as evidence to support draconian measures..

brickster69

CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »

Does anyone have stats on the prevalence of Delta in different countries in Europe.

Delta cases are roughly doubling every 7 days

Germany 50% of cases
France 20%
Portugal 55%
Spain 32%
Italy 17%
UK 96%
Belgium 16%
Russia 90%

Difficult to know what the exact numbers are due to lot's of them sleepwalking on the testing front and sequencing is next to zero. Deaths and hospital admissions are numbers to worry about, but the case numbers will explode in a month or so.

brickster69

More on things

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/30/the-delta-variant-is-spreading-in-europe-and-cant-be-stopped.html

Micky 32

brickster69 wrote: »

More on things

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/30/the-delta-variant-is-spreading-in-europe-and-cant-be-stopped.html

You’re on a roll there aren’t you? Mop the froth off the side of your face please.

The vaccines work without doubt. The evidence is there. Thousands and thousands are put into arms everyday. I predict it won’t be as bad as some think it will be. Next couple of months will make a huge difference as millions more will have been administered, Vaccines work.

I’m confident of this ( from your link):

“”Covid vaccination programs could come to the rescue if countries in Europe can deploy shots fast enough. A study by Public Health England in May showed that having both doses of the Covid vaccines developed by AstraZeneca-Oxford University and Pfizer-BioNTech (the vaccines most widely offered in Europe) provide effective protection against the delta variant.“”