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The Delta variant

amandstu

How might this play out?

Apparently cases in England may be doubling every 4.5 days and resultant hospitalizations are said to be possibly between 2 and 3 times more likely that with the Alpha variant.

Only 1% prevalence here at the moment seemingly.

Back of envelope modeling in my sitting room is not reassuring and I am not near to getting my second AstraZeneca jab yet( so 30% protected against symptomatic disease?)

EDIT: Have been corrected in this thread that parts of England (not England as a whole) had cases doubling every 4.5 days

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biggebruv

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

My sister-in-law ended up testing positive for the delta variant over the weekend. She got her first Astra Zeneca vaccine a few weeks ago. She's in absolute bits, usual symptoms - loss of smell, taste and aching pains.

A number of her close contacts are now in self-isolation, many of whom are fully vaccinated. I thought you didn't need to self-isolate if you are fully vaccinated? Is this a delta variant specific thing or what?

Wow that is some bull**** this sucks my parents received just the first Astra dose

Stheno

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

My sister-in-law ended up testing positive for the delta variant over the weekend. She got her first Astra Zeneca vaccine a few weeks ago. She's in absolute bits, usual symptoms - loss of smell, taste and aching pains.

A number of her close contacts are now in self-isolation, many of whom are fully vaccinated. I thought you didn't need to self-isolate if you are fully vaccinated? Is this a delta variant specific thing or what?

https://www2.hse.ie/conditions/covid19/contact-tracing/close-contact/

I know for a fact that those asked to self-isolate by the HSE got their vaccines way outside of those time limits. The contact tracing team were advised that they were fully vaccinated and they were still told that they must get tested and self-isolate.

That's odd they were told to isolate and get tested

How do they know she has delta is she only tested positive at the weekend? It take two weeks to sequence iirc

funnydoggy

Worth noting that you're not considered fully vaccinated until 15 days after you've had your second AZ dose. One dose isn't enough to prevent getting infected.

Sierra Oscar

Stheno wrote: »

That's odd they were told to isolate and get tested

How do they know she has delta is she only tested positive at the weekend? It take two weeks to sequence iirc

I don't want to get into a specific location but it's in a Covid hot spot in the south west and the HSE told her that they are assuming all confirmed cases in the locality are delta variants.

funnydoggy wrote: »

Worth noting that you're not considered fully vaccinated until 15 days after you've had your second AZ dose. One dose isn't enough to prevent getting infected.

One of those in self-isolation got the Pfizer vaccine well over two months ago. Test came back negative today, told they still have to self-isolate. I've told them to get on to the HSE this evening and find out if they are being given incorrect advice by the contact tracer.

You're right though, pretty clear you definitely need the second AZ dose for reasonable level of immunity.

funnydoggy

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

One of those in self-isolation got the Pfizer vaccine well over two months ago.

Apologies, I meant the post in relation to your sister

very odd though that they were told to isolate. Maybe it's the HSE being extra cautious?

Stheno

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

I don't want to get into a specific location but it's in a Covid hot spot in the south east and the HSE told her that they are assuming all confirmed cases in the locality are delta variants.

One of those in self-isolation got the Pfizer vaccine well over two months ago. Test came back negative today, told they still have to self-isolate. I've told them to get on to the HSE this evening and find out if they are being given incorrect advice by the contact tracer.

You're right though, pretty clear you definitely need the second AZ dose for reasonable level of immunity.

Sorry, didn't mean to pry, apologies

Reason I asked is Delta symptoms are reported as being quite different, headaches and runny nose being common, loss of taste and smell being rarer

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cnbc.com/amp/2021/06/17/covid-delta-variant-symptoms-spread-and-what-to-look-out-for.html

Redsoxfan

Interesting, read this earlier - BBC broadcaster Andrew Marr was vaccinated but got COVID and was quite ill but did not need to go to hospital and has recovered.

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-57640550

So looks like Delta is different.

Unicorn Milk Latte

There are no large scale studies yet that have a definite assessment of how exactly vaccination affects transmission.

It's an evolving situation with the Delta variant, so isolating vaccinated close contacts makes sense both for reasons of erring on the side of caution, as well as observing these early cases to gather data that will influence later recommendations.

Sierra Oscar

Stheno wrote: »

Sorry, didn't mean to pry, apologies

Reason I asked is Delta symptoms are reported as being quite different, headaches and runny nose being common, loss of taste and smell being rarer

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cnbc.com/amp/2021/06/17/covid-delta-variant-symptoms-spread-and-what-to-look-out-for.html

No need to apologise! I thought the same thing regarding the symptoms and found it a bit odd that the contact tracer mentioned the delta variant at all.

I'll get back on with more information when they have been on to the helpline. Either they've been given incorrect information or the website advice needs some tweaking.

On a positive note, the contact tracers were in contact within 24 hours and the test results were also back within 24 hours.

Sierra Oscar

Just an update, my relative found it difficult to navigate the Covid helpline - they kept getting referred back to the HSE website for information (which states they don't need to self-isolate or even get tested).

So I decided to ring the helpline myself. Spoke to a very helpful lady who checked the situation for me and yes, you do need to self-isolate if you are a close contact of someone who has tested positive for a 'variant of concern' even if you are fully vaccinated.

This is all news to me.

[Deleted User]

Redsoxfan wrote: »

Interesting, read this earlier - BBC broadcaster Andrew Marr was vaccinated but got COVID and was quite ill but did not need to go to hospital and has recovered.

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-57640550

So looks like Delta is different.

No vaccine is 100% effective against any variant.

Marr is 61 and a cancer and stroke survivor. Without a vaccine he'd have been at very high risk of hospitalization. Instead he had a "summer cold" and has since returned to work.

It did it's job.

Stheno

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

Just an update, my relative found it difficult to navigate the Covid helpline - they kept getting referred back to the HSE website for information (which states they don't need to self-isolate or even get tested).

So I decided to ring the helpline myself. Spoke to a very helpful lady who checked the situation for me and yes, you do need to self-isolate if you are a close contact of someone who has tested positive for a 'variant of concern' even if you are fully vaccinated.

This is all news to me.

Thats a bit insane tbh

civdef

Stheno wrote: »

Thats a bit insane tbh

The website linked above (https://www2.hse.ie/conditions/covid19/contact-tracing/close-contact/) actually says this:

If you are a close contact of COVID-19
If you're a close contact of a person that tests positive for COVID-19 (coronavirus) and you are not fully vaccinated you need to:

get tested for COVID-19
restrict your movements (stay at home) for 14 days
You can stop restricting your movements when both apply:

You have a negative test (COVID-19 not detected) 10 days after you were last in contact with the person who tested positive.
You do not have any symptoms of COVID-19.
Follow the advice on how to protect yourself and others from COVID-19

There is different advice if you:

have arrived in Ireland from abroad
are a close contact of a variant of concern

Sierra Oscar

civdef wrote: »

The website linked above (https://www2.hse.ie/conditions/covid19/contact-tracing/close-contact/) actually says this:

You're right, I missed that. It's a bit confusing because it's listed under the 'If you are a close contact of COVID-19' section but not under the 'If you are a close contact and you have received a COVID-19 vaccine'

I see there's a page on it here now that I've gone back over it.

It really removes one of the main benefits of being fully vaccinated. I can understand the reasoning though.

funnydoggy

Work has us not using every second cash till now due to concerns about the variant. I think there genuinely *is* an abundance of caution at this stage but I feel in time it'll be okay.

pc7

If they are ‘assuming’ Delta does that mean the % of Delta we are hearing is a guesstimate?

Stheno

pc7 wrote: »

If they are ‘assuming’ Delta does that mean the % of Delta we are hearing is a guesstimate?

Takes 3 weeks to confirm genome sequencing

If you'd told me a year ago I would know the term genome sequencing I'd have thought you were insane

Lumen

pc7 wrote: »

If they are ‘assuming’ Delta does that mean the % of Delta we are hearing is a guesstimate?

It's an extrapolation based on aged data. Sequencing currently takes about two weeks, apparently.

In official speak, "a number of weeks", or in plain English "weeks".

Tenger

biggebruv wrote: »

What’s the point of getting Astra Zeneca now if it’s only 60% effective against the delta variant if I’m offered that one can I say no I want the Pfizer since I read it’s apparently 88% effective

Other nations (the UK and Canada) are already doing mixed vaccines. That could be an option.

But in reality the actual effectiveness is similar across all vaccines. Waiting to get a "better" one is riskier than taking the first one.

*said as a recepient of J&J.

Unicorn Milk Latte

Only a percentage of positive PCR tests are sequenced to determine the variant. AFAIK, the UK is leading in Europe regarding how much they sequence, Denmark seems to be sequencing a lot, in Germany, around 12% are sequenced (the only definite number I could find..).

Percentage numbers for the prevalence of specific variants are always a few weeks behind, due to the amount of time that sequencing takes.

hmmm

If the reports about NIAC is true, looks like it's going to be a mad dash to get as many double doses of vaccines out as quickly as possible over the next few weeks. Lots of J&J will help too.

The thing that I've found incredible about Delta is the Australian contact tracing results. They have two people passing, on CCTV, and in the space of about 5-10 seconds the other person got infected. We haven't seen this before.

I'm not really concerned about people who have been vaccinated and all this talk of reduced protection is a bit of a red herring as you've still got great protection against severe disease.

Public Health are working overtime to contact trace Delta outbreaks and are doing a great job of keeping it suppressed, but they need us to do our bit too - for a little while longer.

alibab

I posted pages back that my son was confirmed delta variant from a specific outbreak. Originally I was told to restrict movements to get a sudden phone call 24 hours later telling me to go into full isolation. His isolation was also increased from 10 to 14 days . It was clear the rules are different for delta and being Vaccinated means nothing .

My older son had a negative on day 5 and has now tested positive day 7 so now 2 out of 3 here positive. I am negative still Vaccinated .

[Deleted User]

hmmm wrote: »

If the reports about NIAC is true, looks like it's going to be a mad dash to get as many double doses of vaccines out as quickly as possible over the next few weeks. Lots of J&J will help too.

The thing that I've found incredible about Delta is the Australian contact tracing results. They have two people passing, on CCTV, and in the space of about 5-10 seconds the other person got infected. We haven't seen this before.

I'm not really concerned about people who have been vaccinated and all this talk of reduced protection is a bit of a red herring as you've still got great protection against severe disease.

Public Health are working overtime to contact trace Delta outbreaks and are doing a great job of keeping it suppressed, but they need us to do our bit too - for a little while longer.

Austrailia struggling to hold on now.

Is worrying how transmissable now.

Surely you cant get it from passing someone on the street?

Tenger

hmmm wrote: »

.........
The thing that I've found incredible about Delta is the Australian contact tracing results. They have two people passing, on CCTV, and in the space of about 5-10 seconds the other person got infected. We haven't seen this before.
...... .

It's been a known possibility for months now. Hence the mask mandate outdoors in most US states.

This thing isn't black&white. The "15 minute close proximity" guide was just that.
All it takes it a few droplets in the air as you pass a stranger in the street to pass the infection.
In China last May/June there was a study on a guy getting infected on a bus AFTER the carrier got off. He had expelled droplets inside the bus.
Thats the entire rationale for mask wearing in close proximity of others. "Outdoors is safer" means it hot a lower risk, (due to wind and sunshine) NOT that's its got no risk.

Unicorn Milk Latte wrote: »

Only a percentage of positive PCR tests are sequenced to determine the variant. AFAIK, the UK is leading in Europe regarding how much they sequence, Denmark seems to be sequencing a lot, in Germany, around 12% are sequenced (the only definite number I could find..).
.......

Irish Time 4-5 days ago stated 30% of Irish PCR tests are sequenced for variants.
And that 20% of those are Delta.
No indication however what the criteria for sequencing is or if it is random.

hmmm

alibab wrote: »

It was clear the rules are different for delta and being Vaccinated means nothing.

The data is a bit unclear at the moment as to how much risk there is of vaccinated people transmitting Delta. Being vaccinated you're largely protected yourself, but they don't want you wandering around potentially spreading it. I can understand why they're being very cautious, and also they're under a lot of pressure dealing with something which is very new and not very well understood.

hmmm

Woody79 wrote: »

Austrailia struggling to hold on now.

Is worrying how transmissable now.

Surely you cant get it from passing someone on the street?

The 5-10 second transmission in Australia was definitely indoors. But they have CCTV evidence showing that the people weren't lying, and it was a quick encounter. Maybe that person just got really unlucky, but you can understand why it has spooked them.

Stheno

hmmm wrote: »

The 5-10 second transmission in Australia was definitely indoors. But they have CCTV evidence showing that the people weren't lying, and it was a quick encounter.

They also were not wearing masks, no?

alibab

Also neither of my sons have loss of taste or smell . Both had high temperatures, body aches and pains and upper respiratory. One has sore throat and diarrhea also . Younger not as bad . 17 year old sicker more symptoms and says when paracetamol and neurofen step working he feel horrendous. Dizzy spells also . Both have full taste and smell

hmmm

Stheno wrote: »

They also were not wearing masks, no?

Yes, no masks.

alibab

My younger son who caught it first , spent 1 hour outdoors in garden with 5 others . The person he got it off they had 1 encounter the whole hour my son never went inside I was there . I took a photo of them both he put his arm around my sons shoulder that was the only contact made outdoors . Everyone else there tested negative bar my son who had direct physical contact be it for max 1 minute outside.