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The Delta variant

amandstu

How might this play out?

Apparently cases in England may be doubling every 4.5 days and resultant hospitalizations are said to be possibly between 2 and 3 times more likely that with the Alpha variant.

Only 1% prevalence here at the moment seemingly.

Back of envelope modeling in my sitting room is not reassuring and I am not near to getting my second AstraZeneca jab yet( so 30% protected against symptomatic disease?)

EDIT: Have been corrected in this thread that parts of England (not England as a whole) had cases doubling every 4.5 days

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Ficheall

beaz2018 wrote: »

Runny nose? Quick, run and get tested. What a complete farce we have become.

What would Dr beaz recommend? Keep spreading the virus to keep the case numbers up, so that he can continue to complain about restrictions?

Mimon

beaz2018 wrote: »

Runny nose? Quick, run and get tested. What a complete farce we have become.

18 months into this and you still don't know that it is better to get tested to rule out Covid as much as it is to find cases of it.

beaz2018

Our testing strategy has been such a success. We havent been the most restricted country for such a prolonged period, we havent killed thousands through nursing homes and hospital infections. Quick, get that 2 year old a test for that runny nose, he might kill someone.

Mimon

beaz2018 wrote: »

Our testing strategy has been such a success. We havent been the most restricted country for such a prolonged period, we havent killed thousands through nursing homes and hospital infections. Quick, get that 2 year old a test for that runny nose, he might kill someone.

Completely clueless post. Go back to bed instead of spouting rubbish here.

Nozebleed

beaz2018 wrote: »

Runny nose? Quick, run and get tested. What a complete farce we have become.

completely agree. id love to know who exactly is getting tested. the most vulnerable are fully vaccinated,no reason for them to be tested. the 50 year olds are more or less there too. 40 year olds have a single dose at this stage. im nt sure why they'd bother being tested..so is NEPHET saying all the 20-30 year olds are queueing up for tests? i doubt it because they're all out having pints in town without fear..and rightly so. the fear mongering has gone beyond ridiculous at this point. open up the country.

Mimon

Nozebleed wrote: »

completely agree. id love to know who exactly is getting tested. the most vulnerable are fully vaccinated,no reason for them to be tested. the 50 year olds are more or less there too. 40 year olds have a single dose at this stage. im nt sure why they'd bother being tested..so is NEPHET saying all the 20-30 year olds are queueing up for tests? i doubt it because they're all out having pints in town without fear..and rightly so. the fear mongering has gone beyond ridiculous at this point. open up the country.

You do realise we can open up but that people with symptoms can still get a test?

Lumen

This is still the Delta variant thread, right?

Have all the other threads reached moaning capacity and overflowed?

alibab

Nozebleed wrote: »

completely agree. id love to know who exactly is getting tested. the most vulnerable are fully vaccinated,no reason for them to be tested. the 50 year olds are more or less there too. 40 year olds have a single dose at this stage. im nt sure why they'd bother being tested..so is NEPHET saying all the 20-30 year olds are queueing up for tests? i doubt it because they're all out having pints in town without fear..and rightly so. the fear mongering has gone beyond ridiculous at this point. open up the country.

Residential and nursing home staff are still being tested every 2 weeks that is and will be ongoing . Also if anyone is worried about there runny nose they don’t have to make a song and dance about it now . Plenty of walk in centers if people want to put there mind at rest etc and all you need is ID . Also antigen tests if done right work very well so if you wake up with a head cold and want to head out that evening a antigen test will give a result . All other countries are using them and when I used it on my son it was instantly positive the pcr then confirmed

Nozebleed

alibab wrote: »

Residential and nursing home staff are still being tested every 2 weeks that is and will be ongoing . Also if anyone is worried about there runny nose they don’t have to make a song and dance about it now . Plenty of walk in centers if people want to put there mind at rest etc and all you need is ID . Also antigen tests if done right work very well so if you wake up with a head cold and want to head out that evening a antigen test will give a result . All other countries are using them and when I used it on my son it was instantly positive the pcr then confirmed

so if i wake up in the morning with a sniffle..i should take an antigen test to see if its safe to go for a pint or shopping? are you serious? do you want this to be the new way of living? it aint gona happen.

TefalBrain

With the amount of people out and about having a good time last night it's guaranteed the variant will be spreading and tbh what of it. The vulnerable are vaccinated and stats from the UK show no real increase in deaths or hospitalisations.

Great to see and hear people living once again. We've forgotten about people keeping their mental health safe for far too long now.

Ficheall

Nozebleed wrote: »

so if i wake up in the morning with a sniffle..i should take an antigen test to see if its safe to go for a pint or shopping? are you serious? do you want this to be the new way of living? it aint gona happen.

I thought people wanted to take antigen tests so they could go to the pub/whatever like in other countries in Europe?

alibab

Nozebleed wrote: »

so if i wake up in the morning with a sniffle..i should take an antigen test to see if its safe to go for a pint or shopping? are you serious? do you want this to be the new way of living? it aint gona happen.

You don’t have to do anything but a lot of people with elderly relatives and vulnerable people in there families might be glad of this option to help keep them safe . Every one can risk assess there own situation and make there own decisions. The fact remains even with Vacination you can still get covid and pass it on to the vulnerable.

Nozebleed

Ficheall wrote: »

I thought people wanted to take antigen tests so they could go to the pub/whatever like in other countries in Europe?

so the intention is to use antigen testing for ever more? that's the solution? when will this be phased out exactly..or am i missing something? C19 isnt going anywhere like the flu and the common cold. i hope people don't think they can push this as a mandatory exercise for attending pubs and restaurants going forward.

Unicorn Milk Latte

Nozebleed wrote: »

do you want this to be the new way of living? it aint gona happen.

You're right that it's not going to happen, but not because it's an apocalyptic vision of idiot conspiracy theorists, but because, in the long run, when large parts of the population are either vaccinated or had Covid, it will become endemic, which means at least partial background immunity in the population - similar to the flu. Partial immunity to any variant - again, similar to the flu, where, while you can get a new flu shot targeted at new variants every year, most adults have partial immunity, because they had it at one stage in their life.

The situation right now it that we're still in a global pandemic. The immune system of the vast majority of the human population is still 'naive' to the Coronavirus, regardless of variant.

One purpose of a test is to determine if you can still infect the over 50% - higher if you consider it's global - of the population that is not vaccinated.

The main purpose of antigen tests is to ease and accelerate opening up.

The 'Covid lovers' - the guys who refuse to wear masks, get vaccinated, get tested - just so they can prolong the pandemic, because it feeds their paranoia, helps them play the victim of oppression, feeds their idiotic conspiracies and messages of doom - these people are becoming a real problem.

Red Silurian

Hospital cases up today

47 in hospital today up 12 from yesterday
15 in ICU up 2 on yesterday's figures

I know most hospitals don't release people from hospitals on weekends so tomorrow and Tuesdays figures will show a more accurate picture

Wolf359f

Red Silurian wrote: »

Hospital cases up today

47 in hospital today up 12 from yesterday
15 in ICU up 2 on yesterday's figures

I know most hospitals don't release people from hospitals on weekends so tomorrow and Tuesdays figures will show a more accurate picture

There was only 43 in hospital yesterday, so an increase of 4, not 12.

Red Silurian

Wolf359f wrote: »

There was only 43 in hospital yesterday, so an increase of 4, not 12.

Hmm... Strange I thought I read there that it was 35 but I've no proof so I'll take your word... One way or another it's an increase

Not good but I wouldn't use the term 'worrying' just yet though

Stheno

Red Silurian wrote: »

Hmm... Strange I thought I read there that it was 35 but I've no proof so I'll take your word... One way or another it's an increase

Not good but I wouldn't use the term 'worrying' just yet though

Its the weekend

Klonker

Red Silurian wrote: »

Hmm... Strange I thought I read there that it was 35 but I've no proof so I'll take your word... One way or another it's an increase

Not good but I wouldn't use the term 'worrying' just yet though

Lower hospital numbers than last Sunday and same number in ICU. Far from worrying.

Deeper Blue

How have people not realised at this stage that the numbers in hospital increase on the weekend? Pain in the hole reading the same posts every time.

Tenger

Deeper Blue wrote: »

How have people not realised at this stage that the numbers in hospital increase on the weekend? Pain in the hole reading the same posts every time.

Absolutely. The daily numbers aren’t fully reliable because they may be late recording of cases/deaths.

[Deleted User]

Deeper Blue wrote: »

How have people not realised at this stage that the numbers in hospital increase on the weekend?

They've realised fine. It suits the "do this, don't do that, wear that, don't go here" types to make figures seem more portentous than they actually are.

Red Silurian

Tenger wrote: »

Absolutely. The daily numbers aren’t fully reliable because they may be late recording of cases/deaths.

The daily case numbers are less important than they once were anyway, it's been a steady 300-400 for the last number of months and numbers are continuing in the right direction

Ficheall

Red Silurian wrote: »

I know most hospitals don't release people from hospitals on weekends so tomorrow and Tuesdays figures will show a more accurate picture

Deeper Blue wrote: »

How have people not realised at this stage that the numbers in hospital increase on the weekend? Pain in the hole reading the same posts every time.

Looks to me like the poster knows..?

brickster69

Cases rising

https://twitter.com/UKCovid19Stats/status/1409528024513536004

amandstu

brickster69 wrote: »

Cases rising

https://twitter.com/UKCovid19Stats/status/1409528024513536004

Yes ,fairly rising but deaths are v low .

Anyone have an idea yet as to the lethality of Delta when comparing like with like?

I mean deaths are bound to be relatively low wrt cases if more cases are amongst the young but are the young experiencing greater severity in cases as compared to the earlier variants? (and the same question for the older unvaccinated which they must be some of)

OwenM

amandstu wrote: »

Yes ,fairly rising but deaths are v low .

Anyone have an idea yet as to the lethality of Delta when comparing like with like?

I mean deaths are bound to be relatively low wrt cases if more cases are amongst the young but are the young experiencing greater severity in cases as compared to the earlier variants? (and the same question for the older unvaccinated which they must be some of)

So with one dose it seems you are marginally less likely with delta to go to hospital than with alpha, if it's putting less people in hospital then it's less lethal surely.
https://twitter.com/andrew_croxford/status/1408750033286074371

amandstu

OwenM wrote: »

So with one dose it seems you are marginally less likely with delta to go to hospital than with alpha, if it's putting less people in hospital then it's less lethal surely]

Yes that seems to be the overall picture.(eaten bread and all that

EDIT: Even so ,I just came upon this on RTE
"In the UK, there is evidence that a person infected with the Delta variant is twice as likely to end up in hospital."

https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2021/0628/1231774-coronavirus-ireland/

Haven't the energy to follow that up

biggebruv

What’s the point of getting Astra Zeneca now if it’s only 60% effective against the delta variant if I’m offered that one can I say no I want the Pfizer since I read it’s apparently 88% effective

Sierra Oscar

My sister-in-law ended up testing positive for the delta variant over the weekend. She got her first Astra Zeneca vaccine a few weeks ago. She's in absolute bits, usual symptoms - loss of smell, taste and aching pains.

A number of her close contacts are now in self-isolation, many of whom are fully vaccinated. I thought you didn't need to self-isolate if you are fully vaccinated? Is this a delta variant specific thing or what?

https://www2.hse.ie/conditions/covid19/contact-tracing/close-contact/

If you are a close contact and you have received a COVID-19 vaccine

You do not need to restrict your movements or be tested for COVID-19 if it is more than:
7 days after your 2nd Pfizer-BioNTech dose

14 days after your 2nd Moderna dose

14 days after the Janssen vaccine

15 days after your 2nd AstraZeneca dose

I know for a fact that those asked to self-isolate by the HSE got their vaccines way outside of those time limits. The contact tracing team were advised that they were fully vaccinated and they were still told that they must get tested and self-isolate.