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The Delta variant

amandstu

How might this play out?

Apparently cases in England may be doubling every 4.5 days and resultant hospitalizations are said to be possibly between 2 and 3 times more likely that with the Alpha variant.

Only 1% prevalence here at the moment seemingly.

Back of envelope modeling in my sitting room is not reassuring and I am not near to getting my second AstraZeneca jab yet( so 30% protected against symptomatic disease?)

EDIT: Have been corrected in this thread that parts of England (not England as a whole) had cases doubling every 4.5 days

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Micky 32

brickster69 wrote: »

Israel concerns with Delta

https://www.wsj.com/articles/vaccinated-people-account-for-half-of-new-covid-19-delta-cases-in-israeli-outbreak-11624624326

And they were all asymptomatic. Vaccines work.

TefalBrain

alibab wrote: »

My 15 year old has this variant without going to too much detail it can be traced back and is delta variant. The only contact was at a outdoor event he was at for 1 hour never indoors . Yes he was unmasked and the only contact was a picture they took together other than that bar being in the same outside space had no other contact. We are all obviously in isolation even though positive his has been increased to 14 days from 10 . Originally as vaccinated I was told continue on but restrict movements . Phone call yesterday to say even though I’m fully vaccinated I now have to fully isolate also ,he is either extremely unfortunate or I s highly transmissible. I was with him so I know wasn’t indoors etc and can confirm only contact he has as I took the picture. The other person positive did nothing wrong they were not symptomatic and were traced through work the next day . My guy has been ill . High temperatures, body aches and upper respiratory and fatigue but thankfully nothing serious he won’t bounce back from fast .

Seems he was unlucky. Get well soon

brickster69

Israel concerns with Delta

https://www.wsj.com/articles/vaccinated-people-account-for-half-of-new-covid-19-delta-cases-in-israeli-outbreak-11624624326

Micky 32

Polar101 wrote: »

I'll put this here since it seems to be related to the delta variant..

120 infections detected in soccer fans traveling on buses between St. Petersburg and Finland. So far at least 25 buses had people who later tested positive on them.

There were some entry requirements, such as a negative result 72 hours before travel, so it wasn't a "free for all", but infections still spread rapidly.

https://yle.fi/uutiset/osasto/news/thl_120_confirmed_coronavirus_infections_linked_to_st_petersburg_travel/11998464

However, good to see this, vaccines are working and will get us out of this:

https://twitter.com/laoneill111/status/1408754621405872129?s=21

Polar101

I'll put this here since it seems to be related to the delta variant..

120 infections detected in soccer fans traveling on buses between St. Petersburg and Finland. So far at least 25 buses had people who later tested positive on them.

There were some entry requirements, such as a negative result 72 hours before travel, so it wasn't a "free for all", but infections still spread rapidly.

https://yle.fi/uutiset/osasto/news/thl_120_confirmed_coronavirus_infections_linked_to_st_petersburg_travel/11998464

[Deleted User]

:pac:l

brickster69 wrote: »

Thought i recognized Matt Hancock's bit on the side from somewhere

Matt Hancock resigned this afternoon.

Inevitable really.....he was' dead man walking' last couple of weeks...... the photos/ affair were final nail in coffin

Will I Am Not

fun loving criminal wrote: »

If Delta is more transmissible outdoors, what do people think of smokers smoking outside?. Smoke can travel far when outside, surely that smoke can carry covid if someone is infected with covid?

Smoke is just breath you can see :pac:

ShineOn7

https://twitter.com/DrTomFrieden/status/1408516620541169666

Just as fecking well the MRNA vaccines are tweakable eh?

What will AZ and Janssen takers do though? MRNA boosters?

gral6

We need to lockdown hard now! Level 6 at least!

fun loving criminal

If Delta is more transmissible outdoors, what do people think of smokers smoking outside?. Smoke can travel far when outside, surely that smoke can carry covid if someone is infected with covid?

fun loving criminal

alibab wrote: »

My 15 year old has this variant without going to too much detail it can be traced back and is delta variant. The only contact was at a outdoor event he was at for 1 hour never indoors . Yes he was unmasked and the only contact was a picture they took together other than that bar being in the same outside space had no other contact. We are all obviously in isolation even though positive his has been increased to 14 days from 10 . Originally as vaccinated I was told continue on but restrict movements . Phone call yesterday to say even though I’m fully vaccinated I now have to fully isolate also ,he is either extremely unfortunate or I s highly transmissible. I was with him so I know wasn’t indoors etc and can confirm only contact he has as I took the picture. The other person positive did nothing wrong they were not symptomatic and were traced through work the next day . My guy has been ill . High temperatures, body aches and upper respiratory and fatigue but thankfully nothing serious he won’t bounce back from fast .

Reading this is so scary. Catching it outdoors from someone not even showing symptoms. Hope he gets better soon.

Wolf359f

Tenger wrote: »

Exactly. No point comparing to the Alpha variant when the current worry is Delta.
Ireland mostly stamped out the Alpha variant last year, then the Beta variant arrived in drives at Xmas.

Funny how he leaves out any of the UK studies showing that the Delta variant seems to be more transmissible but doesnt seem to be any more deadly.

You're confusing the variants
Alpha is the Kent variant and beta is the South African variant.

Tenger

MadYaker wrote: »

Probably means 90% more than the original, UK variant was 50% more.

Exactly. No point comparing to the Alpha variant when the current worry is Delta.
Ireland mostly stamped out the original virus last year, then the Alpha variant arrived in droves at Xmas.

Funny how he leaves out any of the UK studies showing that the Delta variant seems to be more transmissible but doesnt seem to be any more deadly.

Edit; as I used the wrong term for the Kent variant

alibab

My 15 year old has this variant without going to too much detail it can be traced back and is delta variant. The only contact was at a outdoor event he was at for 1 hour never indoors . Yes he was unmasked and the only contact was a picture they took together other than that bar being in the same outside space had no other contact. We are all obviously in isolation even though positive his has been increased to 14 days from 10 . Originally as vaccinated I was told continue on but restrict movements . Phone call yesterday to say even though I’m fully vaccinated I now have to fully isolate also ,he is either extremely unfortunate or I s highly transmissible. I was with him so I know wasn’t indoors etc and can confirm only contact he has as I took the picture. The other person positive did nothing wrong they were not symptomatic and were traced through work the next day . My guy has been ill . High temperatures, body aches and upper respiratory and fatigue but thankfully nothing serious he won’t bounce back from fast .

amandstu

MadYaker wrote: »

Probably means 90% more than the original, UK variant was 50% more.

Yes that is what he said .90% more transmissable than the Wuhan virus.

That was pretty stark.

MadYaker

Probably means 90% more than the original, UK variant was 50% more.

agoodpunt

Yeah this evening he was reveling in it the pratt

Klonker

Stheno wrote: »

Evidence coming out that its no as transmissible as thought and 2 dose vaccines are more effective than thought

https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1408406649224589317?s=19

George Lee said its over 90% more transmissible. I don't know who believe, an expert or an over dramatic journalist

Joking aside, that's great news and kind of what I suspected. Very hard to do accurate analysis early on in terms of new variants. I suspect its not any more likely to cause hospitalisation either.

ShineOn7

Deeper Blue wrote: »

Campbell is likeable and his videos are a good summation of what's in the news. He comes out with a lot of guff too though. He's been saying cases are going to skyrocket in the US since February.

Yes agreed somewhat

The more his following grew the bigger his opinion became

I share his videos for the good data he presents from around the world, but he needs to rein in his own thoughts on them sometimes

Deeper Blue

ShineOn7 wrote: »

Re: John Campbell

Towards the end of that video he's adamant that England vs Germany next Tuesday should be cancelled as it'll be a big "seeding event" for German Delta cases when the fans go back home

But also in this report he says there were just 3 cases from a Danish stadium event this week

Campbell is likeable and his videos are a good summation of what's in the news. He comes out with a lot of guff too though. He's been saying cases are going to skyrocket in the US since February.

Lumen

fm wrote: »

What do you mean? 3.7m is from 15 up?

Nope. 3.7 is 18+, but the CSO don't split the age groups at that point.

Age Group Thousands
0 - 4 years 309.5
5 - 9 years 344.1
10 - 14 years 350
15 - 19 years 323.9
20 - 24 years 307.2
25 - 29 years 292.2
30 - 34 years 324
35 - 39 years 386.5
40 - 44 years 393.7
45 - 49 years 358.5
50 - 54 years 316
55 - 59 years 292.7
60 - 64 years 258.9
65 - 69 years 224.2
70 - 74 years 190.8
75 - 79 years 134.1
80 - 84 years 89.8
85 years and over 81.2
All ages 4977.4

And then I get...

15+ 3973.7
15-17 194.34
18+ 3779.36

Lumen wrote: »

It's actually tricky to know the true number because the CSO uses age groups 15-19 in their population estimates, so you have to split that.

What do you mean? 3.7m is from 15 up?

Lumen

Stheno wrote: »

Yes 3.7 million ovr 18 I think

https://twitter.com/MichealMartinTD/status/1408472454230646797?s=19

It's actually tricky to know the true number because the CSO uses age groups 15-19 in their population estimates, so you have to split that.

Stheno

fm wrote: »

Paul Reid said today 37,000 doses was 1% of the population so over 18 must be 3.7m making it nearly 40% vaccinated

Yes 3.7 million ovr 18 I think

https://twitter.com/MichealMartinTD/status/1408472454230646797?s=19

Lumen

fm wrote: »

Paul Reid said today 37,000 doses was 1% of the population so over 18 must be 3.7m making it nearly 40% vaccinated

As a rule of thumb for Ireland you can just take the adult % and x0.75 to get % total population (and /0.75 to go the other way, obvs).

ShineOn7 wrote: »

Aren't France ahead of us rollout wise though?

And didn't Martin mention a 40% figure earlier? Or was he saying 40% are half vaccinated?

Paul Reid said today 37,000 doses was 1% of the population so over 18 must be 3.7m making it nearly 40% vaccinated

Lumen

ShineOn7 wrote: »

Aren't France ahead of us rollout wise though?

And didn't Martin mention a 40% figure earlier? Or was he saying 40% are half vaccinated?

France are ahead of us in the ECDC stats but those are out of date. They're further down the age groups because of hesitancy.

Martin is probably using % of adult population fully vaccinated.

I assume the dude in that video is using total population.

ShineOn7

Lumen wrote: »

Ireland has only 30% of the total population vaccinated.

Aren't France ahead of us rollout wise though?

And didn't Martin mention a 40% figure earlier? Or was he saying 40% are half vaccinated?

Lumen

ShineOn7 wrote: »

Only 30% are vaxxed in France? Jaysus. I knew they were anti vax, but not to that extent

Ireland has only 30% of the total population vaccinated.

Working:
First doses: 2,300,000
Second doses: 1,400,000
Janssen administered: 72,002
Fully vaccinated: 1,472,002
First dose awaiting second dose: 2,227,998
Total population: 4.977m

That maybe slightly off as I've counted the Janssen's as first doses rather than second doses, it's not clear whether thejournal is doing the same.

Sources:
Doses administered
https://www.thejournal.ie/point-of-unease-paul-reid-coronavirus-june-2021-5476312-Jun2021/
Janssen doses administered
https://qap.ecdc.europa.eu/public/extensions/COVID-19/vaccine-tracker.html#distribution-tab
Population estimate: CSO

Stheno

No its data from Public Health England estimating iys 40% not 60% more transmissible