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The Delta variant

amandstu

How might this play out?

Apparently cases in England may be doubling every 4.5 days and resultant hospitalizations are said to be possibly between 2 and 3 times more likely that with the Alpha variant.

Only 1% prevalence here at the moment seemingly.

Back of envelope modeling in my sitting room is not reassuring and I am not near to getting my second AstraZeneca jab yet( so 30% protected against symptomatic disease?)

EDIT: Have been corrected in this thread that parts of England (not England as a whole) had cases doubling every 4.5 days

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Bit cynical

Micky 32 wrote: »

Something i have noticed about the so-called Delta variant. Now i’m no expert or do i claim to be. It seems the virus is affecting the upper tract mostly . Cough etc seem to be a lesser symptom of this new strain and acts more like a head cold.

So it makes one wonder, is this new strain having problems penetrating the lower tract where it would usually cause the most havoc? Is that not a good thing? Thoughts?

Still too early to say but if true it is a good thing.

However I think from the point of view of ISAG and other fanatics it is a bad thing. A non-lethal form of Covid is their worst nightmare because how can you persuade people it's a deadly virus that needs to be eliminated if it is no longer deadly?

JimmyVik

Dempo1 wrote: »

Cyber Attack, albeit that too will no doubt be blamed on the CMO

Surely they've been able to count since the cyber attack.

Micky 32

Turtwig wrote: »

Haven't a clue. Have you a source for mostly upper respiratory involvement?

Here’s one article anyway:

https://www.google.ie/amp/s/www.cbc.ca/amp/1.6069831

Tyrone212

Turtwig wrote: »

Haven't a clue. Have you a source for upper respiratory only involvement?

I think Public Health England released a report last week that loss of taste had fallen outside the top 10 common symptoms since delta had taken over and the most common symptoms mimicked those of a head cold.

Turtwig

Haven't a clue. Have you a source for mostly upper respiratory involvement?

Micky 32

Something i have noticed about the so-called Delta variant. Now i’m no expert or do i claim to be. It seems the virus is affecting the upper tract mostly . Cough etc seem to be a lesser symptom of this new strain and acts more like a head cold.

So it makes one wonder, is this new strain having problems penetrating the lower tract where it would usually cause the most havoc? Is that not a good thing? Thoughts?

Lumen

Ballynally wrote: »

Personally i think basing your policy on modeling alone wont do you any good. And there are a multitude of models to pick from.

The data looks fairly stark though. The European countries where delta is very high, proportionately, tend to be seeing a significant increase in infection.

The most likely outcome over the next couple of weeks is that delta % goes steadily towards 100% and then cases start to climb, and then NPET sh!t the bed and the government postpones indoor re-opening.

It'll be more interesting if that happens a little after re-opening on July 5th. I can't see the government rolling back at that point.

https%3A%2F%2Fd6c748xw2pzm8.cloudfront.net%2Fprod%2F015109f0-d127-11eb-b11d-7d5e63f097ef-fullwidth.png?dpr=2&fit=scale-down&quality=medium&source=next&width=1260

Lollipop95

Has anyone been following Australia? Looks like Sydney is on the brink of lockdown and the variant has appeared in Melbourne now

Turtwig

The problem there is if you have a 3 weeks of exponential growth it'll take longer to reverse that than if you only had two weeks. Or one week. Or just a few days. There's a long tail when it comes to reversing the curve. The later the suppression begins the longer it will take to reverse.

The ransomware attack has to be considered here too. If patients start showing up with covid the ability to provide health care to non covid patients will be more disportionately severely impacted than it would have been previously.

I'm just glad we have a few more weeks before the decisions regarding restrictions has to be made. Time and information from here and abroad should help.

Ballynally

Lumen wrote: »

I still can't make up my mind about the appropriate policy response for Ireland. How the hell is anyone supposed to model whether our cases will continue to drop, like France, or rise sharply like Portugal?
.

Policy response should be based on calculated, clinical proportionality, not on fear though the former is a hard sell w the levels of anxiety in society.

Personally i think basing your policy on modeling alone wont do you any good. And there are a multitude of models to pick from.
There are other factors involved as well.
And there is no solution. Just a trade off.
I think that at this moment there is no good reason to delay easing restrictions in Ireland, looking at the nrs and the progress of the last 3 weeks.
There has been something like the 'final' easing of restrictions but that delays things and the carrot keeps on hanging a little further in perpetuity. Another 3 weeks can lead to another few weeks etc.
The point of no return might not come in the foreseeable future. We have had enough damage done to let that happen.
Ease restrictions fr july 5 w a series of caveats. You can retain restrictions for visitors fr certain other countries if need be. If cases rise exponentially in a 3 week period , coupled w rising hospitalisations in the weeks after you THEN have the excuse to reimpose restrictions because you are forced by reality.
And the majority people will understand.
I think the easing on july 5 will actually happen. It is about 10 days before they have to make a decision. Too short for nrs to rise much in Ireland/Northern Ireland. Despite the ramping up of concern.
I hope im not wrong.

gral6

Paul Murphy wants hard lockdown and MHQ for all arrivals again because of Delta. I wonder, what planet he is from?

Lumen

Ballynally wrote: »

I cannot prove it but it makes sense dont you think?
Or do you have a better explanation with better proof?

The most obvious explanation of cases going up is that there are more people infected.

The evidence of this is the linked but lagging rise in hospitalisations, because hospitalisations are unrelated to surge testing effects.

Look the case numbers for Blackburn and hospitalisation numbers for Lancashire Teaching Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust. The geographies don't align but are close.

Winter wave
Cases: Rise from mid Dec, peak around 4 Jan.
Hospitalisations: Rise from 3 Jan, peak around 21 Jan.

Summer wave:
Cases: Rise from a week into May, peak around 4 Jun.
Hospitalisations: Rise from around 1 June, peak...?

In both cases we have hospitalisations rising around 3 weeks after cases and peaking around 3 weeks after that.

Sources:
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases?areaType=ltla&areaName=Blackburn%20with%20Darwen
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare?areaType=nhsTrust&areaName=Lancashire%20Teaching%20Hospitals%20NHS%20Foundation%20Trust

If the summer hospitalisations follow the same pattern as the winter they should be peaking around now. They must surely do this because you can't get hospitalisations continuing to rise with cases continuing to fall.

Stepping back, it seems that what's happening in the UK is a series of fairly localised outbreaks which last a couple of months, exactly the same as previously with national waves, except that previously the waves were suppressed with the help of harsher restrictions, whereas now the outbreaks are being suppressed by....well, some combination of sensible behaviour change and the virus running out of susceptible people due to vaccination and natural immunity.

Because the outbreaks are local the national picture looks more like the international picture we had previously - the outbreaks are linked but separated over time and space.

This has consequences for hospital capacity, if anyone really cares about that any more, because you can in theory move patients between regions if capacity becomes a problem.

These delta-driven summer waves have been a real blow to my optimism, because I believed a couple of months ago that Israel's success with squashing the virus at ~55% population at one dose could be repeated elsewhere. It hasn't been, and Israel is now seeing outbreaks again.

But the last week has been quite positive, because there are early signs that each UK outbreak is not being sustained, and are somewhat isolated geographically.

I still can't make up my mind about the appropriate policy response for Ireland. How the hell is anyone supposed to model whether our cases will continue to drop, like France, or rise sharply like Portugal?

I realise that there are some people who don't care about cases. I still do care, at least until the over 60s are fully vaccinated.

TefalBrain

Doesn't look like Delta has lead to a big increase of hospitalisations in the UK. It's like they rolled out a massive vaccination campaign for the vulnerable and it worked or something.

Virtually everyone i talk to now is sick and tired of the scaremongering and for the vast vast majority this is over. It's tiresome and laughable watching the likes of George Lee still getting freaked out about something that is just boring at this stage.

dominatinMC

Fils wrote: »

Ok Mary.

But my name isn't Mary. Try to keep up

Fils

dominatinMC wrote: »

Who's talking about lockdown? Apart from a few conspiracy theorists on social media. Try to reign in the hysteria..

Ok Mary.

dominatinMC

Fils wrote: »

Tony can get us out of this mess, we can’t lockdown.

Who's talking about lockdown? Apart from a few conspiracy theorists on social media. Try to reign in the hysteria..

Ballynally

wadacrack wrote: »

Is the positivity rate rising in the UK or stable? This would help answer your question. Haven't seen it mentioned at all in the media in the UK.

Surge testing has proven pretty successful, its probably going to be important in the Autumn /winter

Its highly likely the positivity rate has gone up in the UK, unlike in Ireland.
Edit: cases p 100.000 by area (latest weekly rate):
Northern Ireland: 50.4
Wales: 36
Scotland: 140.4
England: 98.4
UK total: 97.5
Note: 50 seems to be an ok nr.

Id say surge testing is pretty important right now, especially in the UK. And in Northern Ireland with a land border w the Republic. I am keeping an eye on that. If cases grow there it might impact the Republic.
And Scottish people travelling without tests fr Sco to NI to the Republic this summer!
I furthermore think that LFTs would be good to use for specific things currently as they do in other countries. Ireland has deliberately not gone down that route and insist on the often impractical (and expensive) PCR tests. Pity..

wadacrack

Ballynally wrote: »

I was interested when the case numbers in the UK really went up quite a bit in the last few days. A very likely explanation would be the surge testing results fr hotspots, especially in Scotland. It has to be separated from general test numbers. It is not the graph showing the test uptake that is important but the actual test results fr hotspots. A lot of specific area test and trace implementation will i think result in higher SarsCov2 case numbers because non symptomatic cases will be added which normally wouldnt show up.
If the prevelance of the Delta variant is apparent in certain areas i think a strong corrolation if not causation can be made between surge testing and a strong rise in case numbers.
I cannot prove it but it makes sense dont you think?
Or do you have a better explanation with better proof?
I am open to suggestions and if i am wrong in my way of thinking i dont mind someone pointing it out.

And yes, i have traced the rise in cases in the UK. Coming fr a low point it doesnt seem that dramatic considering the time frame and the near hysteria about it.
I just tried to find an explanation for the recent case growth rate.
I am following dr.Cambell's videos on Youtube in which he mentioned the link between surge testing and higher case numbers.
The tweet and the poster saying that parents might take their children to be tested made me think further.I then went on various sites to see if the corrolation could be made between surge testing and rising case numbers.
You are probably right to say i was looking for a more favourable view of the recent rise in case ("unconcerning explanation". But am i wrong?

Is the positivity rate rising in the UK or stable? This would help answer your question. Haven't seen it mentioned at all in the media in the UK.

Surge testing has proven pretty successful, its probably going to be important in the Autumn /winter

Ballynally

Lumen wrote: »

What is the evidence for that?

The quoted tweet you replied to says "Testing- Levelled. Cases- Increasing" and has charts supporting that, showing that since end of March tests have gone down from 1.2m to 800k whilst cases have gone up from around 5.5k to over 11k. In between these points was a dip where cases went down to around 2k whilst cases were still around 800k.

I get the sense you're looking for an unconcerning explanation.

I was interested when the case numbers in the UK really went up quite a bit in the last few days. A very likely explanation would be the surge testing results fr hotspots, especially in Scotland. It has to be separated from general test numbers. It is not the graph showing the test uptake that is important but the actual test results fr hotspots. A lot of specific area test and trace implementation will i think result in higher SarsCov2 case numbers because non symptomatic cases will be added which normally wouldnt show up (but in lateral flow tests will.).
If the prevelance of the Delta variant is apparent in certain areas i think a strong corrolation if not causation can be made between surge testing and a strong rise in case numbers.
I cannot prove it but it makes sense dont you think?
Or do you have a better explanation with better proof?
I am open to suggestions and if i am wrong in my way of thinking i dont mind someone pointing it out.

And yes, i have traced the rise in cases in the UK. Coming fr a low base point it doesnt seem that dramatic considering the time frame and the near hysteria about it.
I just tried to find an explanation for the recent case growth rate.
I am following dr.Campbell's videos on Youtube in which he mentioned the link between surge testing and higher case numbers.
The tweet and the poster saying that parents might take their children to be tested made me initially think about it.I then went on various sites to see if the corrolation could be made between surge testing and rising case numbers.
You are probably right to say i was looking for a more favourable view of the recent rise in case ("unconcerning explanation").But am i wrong?

Lumen

Ballynally wrote: »

Surge testing in the UK are pushing the case nrs up.

What is the evidence for that?

The quoted tweet you replied to says "Testing- Levelled. Cases- Increasing" and has charts supporting that, showing that since end of March tests have gone down from 1.2m to 800k whilst cases have gone up from around 5.5k to over 11k. In between these points was a dip where cases went down to around 2k whilst cases were still around 800k.

I get the sense you're looking for an unconcerning explanation.

Fils

Tony can get us out of this mess, we can’t lockdown.

Ballynally

brickster69 wrote: »

Yep it is strange, you can get an idea from the positive cases ages what is happening. Not hard to imagine lots of parents taking the young ones to hospital to get checked over.

https://twitter.com/OS51388957/status/1406541909280034821

Surge testing in the UK are pushing the case nrs up.
They are rightfully trying to tackle the Delta variant w test and trace plus increased push for vaccinations in those areas of concern.
Yesterday new cases were over 16.000. A few days earlier it was 11.000+.
Mainly lateral flow test results before that in the last 10 days with quick results.
The PCR tests are coming in now reflecting the increased numbers.I am less worried now. Test surge factored in, the rise in new cases is less dramatic than it looks on a graph or even % wise.
Im pretty sure that, if every country w do surge testing in hotspots the numbers would be up there as well.
So, less need to panic now..

Cal4567

Another example of Irish caution when it comes to our governing. We will play the safe and easy option. Where are with the 70% target by the end of June? We are almost at the end of the month.

Yes, a tendency always here to treat the general public as foolish and not to be trusted.

Ballynally

Lumen wrote: »

We currently have the fourth highest 7 day case rate in the EU.

I stand corrected , taken the case rate into consideration. Although it does not factor in testing rates which is important (UK prime example w the ramped up surge testing). Anyway, the overall fact remains that those are currently low case numbers if you factor in the Delta variant, and more importantly NOT rising in any significant way (actually down 9% fr last week).Neither are the hospital numbers, let alone deaths ( someone could say: deaths up by 400% fr last week! Yes but from 2 to 10. Low nr fallacy. People on ventilators in hospital for a long time). Doesnt really count.
Positivity rate flat week on week around 2.4.
That is about as stable as you would like to see. The picture looks good.
Each country has its own trajectory. Ours is flat and that is good news these days.
My main gripe would be that people (especially from official state bodies) often pick their own specific data point to suit their narrative. Overall Ireland is doing well. Have been doing for some time. Other countries are fine with us travelling to them. It is the government of Ireland restricting its own citizens to spread their wings.
Even though i am fully vaccinated i still need a PCR test to fly out (and back + quarantine!) as i currently cannot get a certificate, even though the country i am flying to poses no restrictions on me.
So, despite me being low risk, having done the necessary things and deemed safe the state will not provide proof of this.
One could make a point about the overall merits and dangers of international flights but you cannot then make the same point about the importance of being vaccinated and stating, like TH did, and im paraphrasing, they are the ones who should fly as opposed to non or semi vaccinated.
It is things like that that tick people off. One hand gives and the other takes away. We WILL give you the icecream because youve been a good boy. As we promised but only when we deem the time to be right and if things do not change in the meantime. Let's see what happens to the july19 plan when we get closer. If it is pushed back last minute (like july5 might) i will put on my snorkle and flippers and go to Leinster house and make a fool of myself or worse, complaining on social media...��

PTH2009

naivety by our government to think Students are hiding away at home watching TV instead of out drinking

Fils

I feel Paul Reid should get another pay rise. This delta plus is serious, it’s like Dave plus 1.

Lumen

Ballynally wrote: »

We ARE the outlier w the lowest cases and people in hospital in the EU. The most cautious, the most fearsome, last in line etc.

We currently have the fourth highest 7 day case rate in the EU.

Ballynally

NIMAN wrote: »

Does it need the full population full vaccinated before we are allowed to do anything?

I listened to the Ryanair CEO on RTE Radio1 DriveTime and he had a point, saying why aren't the 33% of the Irish population allowed to travel? What more can they do that would make travelling safer? All other Euro countries are allowed their vaccinated to travel, except Ireland.

What is the benefit of being double vaccinated if you still aren't allowed to travel?

As he also said, there will be another variant after Delta (in fact they are already chatting about a Delta+), and one after that, and one after that.....

Double vaccinated people (like myself) are not allowed to travel because the government went ahead w fixing the start date at july19. There is NO good reason why we couldnt follow the rest at july1 or earlier. It is not a technical issue. We have known about this for over a month now like everybody else.
It would also spread the inevitable height of flights if people could fly fr july1.
The reason was clearly to wait and see what happens w cases when everybody else had gone ahead. We ARE the outlier w the lowest cases and people in hospital in the EU. The most cautious, the most fearsome, last in line etc.

[Deleted User]

nocoverart wrote: »

I’m surprised the cyber attack isn’t blamed on a variant at this stage.

The Dimitri variant

saabsaab

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/oireachtas/state-will-be-ready-for-eu-digital-green-cert-system-by-july-18th-smyth-says-1.4599572

Travel Certs from 19th July it seems.