nav[aria-label="Primary Navigation"] { padding: 0; & ul { list-style: none; width: 100%; display: flex; flex-direction: row; justify-content: start; align-items: start; gap: 30px; padding: 0; & li { margin: 0; } & ul li { list-style: none; } } }

Child Item

The Delta variant

amandstu

How might this play out?

Apparently cases in England may be doubling every 4.5 days and resultant hospitalizations are said to be possibly between 2 and 3 times more likely that with the Alpha variant.

Only 1% prevalence here at the moment seemingly.

Back of envelope modeling in my sitting room is not reassuring and I am not near to getting my second AstraZeneca jab yet( so 30% protected against symptomatic disease?)

EDIT: Have been corrected in this thread that parts of England (not England as a whole) had cases doubling every 4.5 days

Find more posts tagged with

Quick Links

Comments

Deeper Blue

Dempo1 wrote: »

Touché, however check the case numbers for this date in 2020

Might as well check the case numbers for this date in 1920 too.

It'd have about the same relevance at this stage.

Dempo1

Micky 32 wrote: »

Who cares about 2020? We are in a different playing field. Google vaccines.

What were the hospital figures in 2020 when we had 3-400 cases a day?

Yep, we've heard all the guff about different places etc, didn't we also have a back and forth about boosters, remind me how that ended?

You had your reaction, congrats, have you seen today's advice from the EU health agency?? I won't mention the dreaded words, but am interesting read

Micky 32

Dempo1 wrote: »

Yep, we've heard all the guff about different places etc, didn't we also have a back and forth about boosters, remind me how that ended?

You had your reaction, congrats, have you seen today's advice from the EU health agency?? I won't mention the dreaded words, but am interesting read

Stop making things up i never had a debate with you regarding boosters. Show my posts or stop lying.

Deeper Blue

Dempo1 wrote: »

Yep, we've heard all the guff about different places etc, didn't we also have a back and forth about boosters, remind me how that ended?

You had your reaction, congrats, have you seen today's advice from the EU health agency?? I won't mention the dreaded words, but am interesting read

Explain why we're in the same place as we were in March 2020 please

JimmyVik

Anyone know why they arent making public the number of deaths in the last month or so.
Is it perhaps because there are very few, or maybe even none?

And dont give me that tripe about the hack.
They've had long enough since then to get numbers and surely they can add and subtract on paper.
Like maybe just tell us how many deaths in the last week or something.

Dempo1

JimmyVik wrote: »

Anyone know why they arent making public the number of deaths in the last month or so.
Is it perhaps because there are very few, or maybe even none?

And dont give me that tripe about the hack.
They've had long enough since then to get numbers and surely they can add and subtract on paper.
Like maybe just tell us how many deaths in the last week or something.

Cyber Attack, albeit that too will no doubt be blamed on the CMO

dominatinMC

Dempo1 wrote: »

Yep, we've heard all the guff about different places etc, didn't we also have a back and forth about boosters, remind me how that ended?

You had your reaction, congrats, have you seen today's advice from the EU health agency?? I won't mention the dreaded words, but am interesting read

Oh please enlighten us

Micky 32

dominatinMC wrote: »

Oh please enlighten us

He must be frothing and gleeing at the mouth about this article or similar

https://www.google.ie/amp/s/www.thejournal.ie/delta-warning-ecdc-ease-restrictions-5475304-Jun2021/%3famp=1

Dempo1

dominatinMC wrote: »

Oh please enlighten us

Just sitting down to a delightful dinner, enlightenment not on the menu unfortunately

[Deleted User]

I am waiting for them to announce the 'I can't believe its not butter variant' at this stage

corkie

JimmyVik wrote: »

Anyone know why they arent making public the number of deaths in the last month or so.
Is it perhaps because there are very few, or maybe even none?

Like maybe just tell us how many deaths in the last week or something.

Have been posted in threads already.

https://twitter.com/newschambers/status/1405552401449357316

"38 deaths since the 13th of May - these were distributed across months.

13 new deaths in May. 5 in June. Note: These are not final figures."

It probably won't be till next Thursdays briefing before they are reported again.

saabsaab

Deleted User wrote: »

I am waiting for them to announce the 'I can't believe its not butter variant' at this stage

Variants will keep emerging. Hopefully we are fully vaccinated before they come here.

nocoverart

Dempo1 wrote: »

Cyber Attack, albeit that too will no doubt be blamed on the CMO

I’m surprised the cyber attack isn’t blamed on a variant at this stage.

NIMAN

saabsaab wrote: »

Variants will keep emerging. Hopefully we are fully vaccinated before they come here.

Does it need the full population full vaccinated before we are allowed to do anything?

I listened to the Ryanair CEO on RTE Radio1 DriveTime and he had a point, saying why aren't the 33% of the Irish population allowed to travel? What more can they do that would make travelling safer? All other Euro countries are allowed their vaccinated to travel, except Ireland.

What is the benefit of being double vaccinated if you still aren't allowed to travel?

As he also said, there will be another variant after Delta (in fact they are already chatting about a Delta+), and one after that, and one after that.....

saabsaab

NIMAN wrote: »

Does it need the full population full vaccinated before we are allowed to do anything?

I listened to the Ryanair CEO on RTE Radio1 DriveTime and he had a point, saying why aren't the 33% of the Irish population allowed to travel? What more can they do that would make travelling safer? All other Euro countries are allowed their vaccinated to travel, except Ireland.

What is the benefit of being double vaccinated if you still aren't allowed to travel?

As he also said, there will be another variant after Delta (in fact they are already chatting about a Delta+), and one after that, and one after that.....

We probably won't get more that 90% fully vaccinated so we can't wait till then but as near as we can until we fully open. Anyway the vaccinations aren't just about travel far from it.

NIMAN

saabsaab wrote: »

We probably won't get more that 90% fully vaccinated so we can't wait till then but as near as we can until we fully open. Anyway the vaccinations aren't just about travel far from it.

I understand, but why can't fully vaccinated people travel, as they can in the rest of the EU?

We are the only member not using the digital green cert app.

Whats the difference in them travelling now, and when 80-90% of the population are vaccinated? Do you know how long thats going to take? There will be no-one allowed to travel out of Ireland until next year then at this rate?

saabsaab

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/oireachtas/state-will-be-ready-for-eu-digital-green-cert-system-by-july-18th-smyth-says-1.4599572

Travel Certs from 19th July it seems.

[Deleted User]

nocoverart wrote: »

I’m surprised the cyber attack isn’t blamed on a variant at this stage.

The Dimitri variant

Ballynally

NIMAN wrote: »

Does it need the full population full vaccinated before we are allowed to do anything?

I listened to the Ryanair CEO on RTE Radio1 DriveTime and he had a point, saying why aren't the 33% of the Irish population allowed to travel? What more can they do that would make travelling safer? All other Euro countries are allowed their vaccinated to travel, except Ireland.

What is the benefit of being double vaccinated if you still aren't allowed to travel?

As he also said, there will be another variant after Delta (in fact they are already chatting about a Delta+), and one after that, and one after that.....

Double vaccinated people (like myself) are not allowed to travel because the government went ahead w fixing the start date at july19. There is NO good reason why we couldnt follow the rest at july1 or earlier. It is not a technical issue. We have known about this for over a month now like everybody else.
It would also spread the inevitable height of flights if people could fly fr july1.
The reason was clearly to wait and see what happens w cases when everybody else had gone ahead. We ARE the outlier w the lowest cases and people in hospital in the EU. The most cautious, the most fearsome, last in line etc.

Lumen

Ballynally wrote: »

We ARE the outlier w the lowest cases and people in hospital in the EU. The most cautious, the most fearsome, last in line etc.

We currently have the fourth highest 7 day case rate in the EU.

Fils

I feel Paul Reid should get another pay rise. This delta plus is serious, it’s like Dave plus 1.

PTH2009

naivety by our government to think Students are hiding away at home watching TV instead of out drinking

Ballynally

Lumen wrote: »

We currently have the fourth highest 7 day case rate in the EU.

I stand corrected , taken the case rate into consideration. Although it does not factor in testing rates which is important (UK prime example w the ramped up surge testing). Anyway, the overall fact remains that those are currently low case numbers if you factor in the Delta variant, and more importantly NOT rising in any significant way (actually down 9% fr last week).Neither are the hospital numbers, let alone deaths ( someone could say: deaths up by 400% fr last week! Yes but from 2 to 10. Low nr fallacy. People on ventilators in hospital for a long time). Doesnt really count.
Positivity rate flat week on week around 2.4.
That is about as stable as you would like to see. The picture looks good.
Each country has its own trajectory. Ours is flat and that is good news these days.
My main gripe would be that people (especially from official state bodies) often pick their own specific data point to suit their narrative. Overall Ireland is doing well. Have been doing for some time. Other countries are fine with us travelling to them. It is the government of Ireland restricting its own citizens to spread their wings.
Even though i am fully vaccinated i still need a PCR test to fly out (and back + quarantine!) as i currently cannot get a certificate, even though the country i am flying to poses no restrictions on me.
So, despite me being low risk, having done the necessary things and deemed safe the state will not provide proof of this.
One could make a point about the overall merits and dangers of international flights but you cannot then make the same point about the importance of being vaccinated and stating, like TH did, and im paraphrasing, they are the ones who should fly as opposed to non or semi vaccinated.
It is things like that that tick people off. One hand gives and the other takes away. We WILL give you the icecream because youve been a good boy. As we promised but only when we deem the time to be right and if things do not change in the meantime. Let's see what happens to the july19 plan when we get closer. If it is pushed back last minute (like july5 might) i will put on my snorkle and flippers and go to Leinster house and make a fool of myself or worse, complaining on social media...��

Cal4567

Another example of Irish caution when it comes to our governing. We will play the safe and easy option. Where are with the 70% target by the end of June? We are almost at the end of the month.

Yes, a tendency always here to treat the general public as foolish and not to be trusted.

Ballynally

brickster69 wrote: »

Yep it is strange, you can get an idea from the positive cases ages what is happening. Not hard to imagine lots of parents taking the young ones to hospital to get checked over.

https://twitter.com/OS51388957/status/1406541909280034821

Surge testing in the UK are pushing the case nrs up.
They are rightfully trying to tackle the Delta variant w test and trace plus increased push for vaccinations in those areas of concern.
Yesterday new cases were over 16.000. A few days earlier it was 11.000+.
Mainly lateral flow test results before that in the last 10 days with quick results.
The PCR tests are coming in now reflecting the increased numbers.I am less worried now. Test surge factored in, the rise in new cases is less dramatic than it looks on a graph or even % wise.
Im pretty sure that, if every country w do surge testing in hotspots the numbers would be up there as well.
So, less need to panic now..

Fils

Tony can get us out of this mess, we can’t lockdown.

Lumen

Ballynally wrote: »

Surge testing in the UK are pushing the case nrs up.

What is the evidence for that?

The quoted tweet you replied to says "Testing- Levelled. Cases- Increasing" and has charts supporting that, showing that since end of March tests have gone down from 1.2m to 800k whilst cases have gone up from around 5.5k to over 11k. In between these points was a dip where cases went down to around 2k whilst cases were still around 800k.

I get the sense you're looking for an unconcerning explanation.

Ballynally

Lumen wrote: »

What is the evidence for that?

The quoted tweet you replied to says "Testing- Levelled. Cases- Increasing" and has charts supporting that, showing that since end of March tests have gone down from 1.2m to 800k whilst cases have gone up from around 5.5k to over 11k. In between these points was a dip where cases went down to around 2k whilst cases were still around 800k.

I get the sense you're looking for an unconcerning explanation.

I was interested when the case numbers in the UK really went up quite a bit in the last few days. A very likely explanation would be the surge testing results fr hotspots, especially in Scotland. It has to be separated from general test numbers. It is not the graph showing the test uptake that is important but the actual test results fr hotspots. A lot of specific area test and trace implementation will i think result in higher SarsCov2 case numbers because non symptomatic cases will be added which normally wouldnt show up (but in lateral flow tests will.).
If the prevelance of the Delta variant is apparent in certain areas i think a strong corrolation if not causation can be made between surge testing and a strong rise in case numbers.
I cannot prove it but it makes sense dont you think?
Or do you have a better explanation with better proof?
I am open to suggestions and if i am wrong in my way of thinking i dont mind someone pointing it out.

And yes, i have traced the rise in cases in the UK. Coming fr a low base point it doesnt seem that dramatic considering the time frame and the near hysteria about it.
I just tried to find an explanation for the recent case growth rate.
I am following dr.Campbell's videos on Youtube in which he mentioned the link between surge testing and higher case numbers.
The tweet and the poster saying that parents might take their children to be tested made me initially think about it.I then went on various sites to see if the corrolation could be made between surge testing and rising case numbers.
You are probably right to say i was looking for a more favourable view of the recent rise in case ("unconcerning explanation").But am i wrong?

wadacrack

Ballynally wrote: »

I was interested when the case numbers in the UK really went up quite a bit in the last few days. A very likely explanation would be the surge testing results fr hotspots, especially in Scotland. It has to be separated from general test numbers. It is not the graph showing the test uptake that is important but the actual test results fr hotspots. A lot of specific area test and trace implementation will i think result in higher SarsCov2 case numbers because non symptomatic cases will be added which normally wouldnt show up.
If the prevelance of the Delta variant is apparent in certain areas i think a strong corrolation if not causation can be made between surge testing and a strong rise in case numbers.
I cannot prove it but it makes sense dont you think?
Or do you have a better explanation with better proof?
I am open to suggestions and if i am wrong in my way of thinking i dont mind someone pointing it out.

And yes, i have traced the rise in cases in the UK. Coming fr a low point it doesnt seem that dramatic considering the time frame and the near hysteria about it.
I just tried to find an explanation for the recent case growth rate.
I am following dr.Cambell's videos on Youtube in which he mentioned the link between surge testing and higher case numbers.
The tweet and the poster saying that parents might take their children to be tested made me think further.I then went on various sites to see if the corrolation could be made between surge testing and rising case numbers.
You are probably right to say i was looking for a more favourable view of the recent rise in case ("unconcerning explanation". But am i wrong?

Is the positivity rate rising in the UK or stable? This would help answer your question. Haven't seen it mentioned at all in the media in the UK.

Surge testing has proven pretty successful, its probably going to be important in the Autumn /winter

Ballynally

wadacrack wrote: »

Is the positivity rate rising in the UK or stable? This would help answer your question. Haven't seen it mentioned at all in the media in the UK.

Surge testing has proven pretty successful, its probably going to be important in the Autumn /winter

Its highly likely the positivity rate has gone up in the UK, unlike in Ireland.
Edit: cases p 100.000 by area (latest weekly rate):
Northern Ireland: 50.4
Wales: 36
Scotland: 140.4
England: 98.4
UK total: 97.5
Note: 50 seems to be an ok nr.

Id say surge testing is pretty important right now, especially in the UK. And in Northern Ireland with a land border w the Republic. I am keeping an eye on that. If cases grow there it might impact the Republic.
And Scottish people travelling without tests fr Sco to NI to the Republic this summer!
I furthermore think that LFTs would be good to use for specific things currently as they do in other countries. Ireland has deliberately not gone down that route and insist on the often impractical (and expensive) PCR tests. Pity..