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The Delta variant

amandstu

How might this play out?

Apparently cases in England may be doubling every 4.5 days and resultant hospitalizations are said to be possibly between 2 and 3 times more likely that with the Alpha variant.

Only 1% prevalence here at the moment seemingly.

Back of envelope modeling in my sitting room is not reassuring and I am not near to getting my second AstraZeneca jab yet( so 30% protected against symptomatic disease?)

EDIT: Have been corrected in this thread that parts of England (not England as a whole) had cases doubling every 4.5 days

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Leftwaffe

SouthWesterly wrote: »

Was chatting to sobs friends living in India recently. The country is in meltdown with Covid.

Was chatting to someone who lives in India too. They said it’s grand.

TefalBrain

igCorcaigh wrote: »

Never a dull moment!

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1407393192773881859?s=19

:pac: They can fcuk right off with that.

The vulnerable are vaccinated, let's rock on.

Ballynally

Leftwaffe wrote: »

Was chatting to someone who lives in India too. They said it’s grand.

India SarsCov2 nrs rapidly gone down in the last two weeks with very low vaccine nrs.

Uk nrs down the last 3 days. Peaked?
Gov.uk: june 1: 5.243, june 15: 10.482. (Doubled 1-15 june).
June 18: 9.924, june 19: 7.778, june 20: 9.097.going down.

GeorgeBailey

Leftwaffe wrote: »

Was chatting to someone who lives in India too. They said it’s grand.

I was talking to 3 people in India. One said it was grand. One said it was hell. The 3rd said I was making the other 2 up but that he was definitely, 100% real. Difficult to know who to believe.

Wolf359f

Ballynally wrote: »

India SarsCov2 nrs rapidly gone down in the last two weeks with very low vaccine nrs.

Uk nrs down the last 3 days. Peaked?
Gov.uk: june 1: 5.243, june 15: 10.482. (Doubled 1-15 june).
June 18: 9.924, june 19: 7.778, june 20: 9.097.going down.

I wouldn't go with comparing single days case numbers as a sign they have peaked or are reducing. 7 day average is still increasing in the UK, up 35% in a week.

PerryB78

If you or a family member tests positive, how can you find out what variant it was?

Happydays2020

PerryB78 wrote: »

If you or a family member tests positive, how can you find out what variant it was?

Depends on whether you had Fish and Chips or an Indian as your last takeaway. Chinese has gone completely out of fashion while Paella never really made any inroads.

boege

Ballynally wrote: »

India SarsCov2 nrs rapidly gone down in the last two weeks with very low vaccine nrs.

Uk nrs down the last 3 days. Peaked?
Gov.uk: june 1: 5.243, june 15: 10.482. (Doubled 1-15 june).
June 18: 9.924, june 19: 7.778, june 20: 9.097.going down.

The number of COVID cases reported on Tuesday is the highest since 19 February - when 12,027 new infections were recorded.

Tuesday's daily death figures are the highest since 12 April - when 30 fatalities were reported.

The number of patients in hospital with the virus is also the highest it has been in almost two months, with 1,378 people in COVID beds as of 20 June - a 21% increase on the previous week - and the highest since 29 April.

https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-uk-reports-11-625-new-cases-and-another-27-coronavirus-related-deaths-12339249

Bit cynical

Seems to be a decoupling of cases and deaths going on. Previously, after about two weeks of rising cases, deaths also start to rise. However it is now about four weeks since cases started to rise in the UK but deaths remain essentially flat.

It also worth putting their current rate of deaths in a European perspective. From the chart below we can see that currently, despite quite a lot of opening up, and the Delta variant, daily deaths in the UK remain flat and, were the UK still in the EU, they would be close to the bottom with only three countries lower. You can see the UK in blue running along the very bottom of the chart for the last three months.

It is still too early to say but so far most of the scare stories don't seem warranted.

NIMAN

Ah christ, so there's a new Delta+ variant now.

RTE are going to wet themselves over this.

Atlantic Dawn

They should turn off the fear machine until there's a strain that the fully administered vaccine doesn't work on.

[Deleted User]

Wolf359f wrote: »

I wouldn't go with comparing single days case numbers as a sign they have peaked or are reducing. 7 day average is still increasing in the UK, up 35% in a week.

The main thing is to look at conversion after a month to hospital numbers
The UK is still only about a 20th of where it was at last January despite the 60% more catching Delta
Vaccines are working
Keep doing what you're doing and even when this is fully quashed, keep up the washing hands habit

Ballynally

Wolf359f wrote: »

I wouldn't go with comparing single days case numbers as a sign they have peaked or are reducing. 7 day average is still increasing in the UK, up 35% in a week.

Well, that's why i only gave the 3 days leading up to june 20.
14-17 nrs were relatively flat. That is 6 days of non growth.
I havent looked at nrs on june 21 and 22 but i think they are up again, levelling out the lower nrs 18-20 june. Could just be a reporting issue.

Ballynally

boege wrote: »

The number of COVID cases reported on Tuesday is the highest since 19 February - when 12,027 new infections were recorded.

Tuesday's daily death figures are the highest since 12 April - when 30 fatalities were reported.

The number of patients in hospital with the virus is also the highest it has been in almost two months, with 1,378 people in COVID beds as of 20 June - a 21% increase on the previous week - and the highest since 29 April.

https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-uk-reports-11-625-new-cases-and-another-27-coronavirus-related-deaths-12339249

I always smile when i hear 'the highest since' and '% up'. Highest since April 12 is actually not a bad nr. And 21% more patients compared to the previous week seems alarming. But then you have to offset that by the very low base line the UK have started with after the curve had been flattened.
So, in statistics this is called the low nr fallacy. Ill explain: if you have 50 people infected one week and 100 the next week you have a 100% rise. This usually gets pickup, flagged and sensationalised with models showing that ' if this continues then..'. More than not the models will have to be adjusted by the actual data in which the flagged incremental model will be abandonned.
But that wont make the news. It is very important but less dramatic.
Now, let's say you have 1000 new cases per week and 2000 the next one and 4000 the next. THEN you have a more serious problem.
I am happy to see that the rise in both cases and hospitalisations is relatively low compared to what was flagged in the 'incremental' story.
It has not come to pass. Delta has spread throughout the country now but if you look at both nrs and percentage it is still relatively low.
It may seem scary if you fixated by % one week vs the next but if you follow the growth pattern over say a month you can put things in perspective. It doesnt look like we need to be overly worried, even if case nrs rise, given the uncoupling of cases and hospitalisations.
I see that most official bodies have come to that conclusion.
All in all i believe the delay of lifting restrictions was the right one.
If the current Delta trajectory remains the same it is actually good news..

Ballynally

ShineOn7 wrote: »

Linky?

Super if true

it might be that because 75% of new cases are people under 30 w a % of them needing to go to hospital will recover more quickly compared to older people w comorbidities who are doubly vaccinated and still get infected.
It IS an important statistic. Treatments have been much approved and i think people do leave hospital much quicker these days.
An un (der) reported fact for sure.

Ficheall

Ballynally wrote: »

it might be that 75% of new cases are people under 30 w a & of them needing to go to hospital will recover more quickly compared to older people w comorbidities who are doubly vaccinated and still get infected.
It IS an important statistic. Treatments have been much approved and i think people do leave hospital much quicker these days.
An un (der) reported fact for sure.

That would be a nice fact to know, but in the absence of anything resembling evidence, one might suspect that the original poster is just making sh*t up with his 95%.

VonLuck

VonLuck wrote: »

Not the most reassuring! I've been very conscientious over this whole thing and it'd be a shame to catch it now, right before getting vaccinated.

Going for a test this morning. Hopefully it is just a cold but no way to tell without testing.

Negative test result this morning, so just a cold! Great relief. Test was turned around in just under 24 hours which is impressive.

[Deleted User]

Leftwaffe wrote: »

Was chatting to someone who lives in India too. They said it’s grand.

They must be very cloistered to be saying that

Ballynally

Ficheall wrote: »

That would be a nice fact to know, but in the absence of anything resembling evidence, one might suspect that the original poster is just making sh*t up with his 95%.

Maybe or maybe not. I suspect that the % of young people ending up in hospital will be there for only a short while.
It would also be insightful if we could access the hospital data and see the nrs broken down by age, co morbidities, gender etc and the time of admittance and release. We did that in the beginning of the pandemic but it has gone out of fashion. The HSE/NHS probably do know but i cannot find the data.
My take on it is that it is likely the data is positive. Bad news travels fast and we'd probably know by now if young, healthy people got seriously ill and for longer periods and stay in hospital. We would have hospital doctors on the news highlighting this. All i know is seeing doctors warning us what might happen and thus keeping us alert w the fear factor intact which they presume leads people to be more cautious. It is a form of virtue signalling.
Im ok w that, knowing the reason behind it. It doesnt worry me..

Dr. Bre

Should be renamed the deadly variant

Tired332

GeorgeBailey wrote: »

I was talking to 3 people in India. One said it was grand. One said it was hell. The 3rd said I was making the other 2 up but that he was definitely, 100% real. Difficult to know who to believe.

Maybe all three are correct it just depends on where they live , the same as Brazil , the report it's from 2014/15 about influenza cases and when they are likely to peak, maybe why there cousin covid could be peaking in some places and not for others ?

Quote" The seasonality of influenza in the tropics complicates vaccination timing. We investigated influenza seasonality in northern India and found influenza positivity peaked in Srinagar (34.09°N) in January–March but peaked in New Delhi (28.66°N) in July–September. Srinagar should consider influenza vaccination in October–November, but New Delhi should vaccinate in May–June.(q)

https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/20/10/14-0431_article

Brazil, https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pastseasons/1415season.htm

brickster69

Ballynally wrote: »

it might be that because 75% of new cases are people under 30 w a % of them needing to go to hospital will recover more quickly compared to older people w comorbidities who are doubly vaccinated and still get infected.
It IS an important statistic. Treatments have been much approved and i think people do leave hospital much quicker these days.
An un (der) reported fact for sure.

Discharges are important as well age of admissions. The average age is 24 for UK hospital admissions at the moment due to the large increases in admissions of younger people under 30.

Only data available is from England 3 weeks ago which shows 115 admissions in 24 hrs and 110 discharged in 24 hrs. Admissions have risen in that time but no reason to suggest discharges have increased also.

Monthly COVID Publication June 2021 (XLSX, 3.0MB)

https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/

Goldengirl

Early days yet but hopefully with vulnerable double vaxxed it won't lead to a rise in ICU numbers and deaths in the next few weeks .

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.ed.ac.uk/news/2021/delta-variant-increases-risk-of-hospitalisation&ved=2ahUKEwjppdy57K3xAhVaQkEAHa9lAr4QFnoECCIQAg&usg=AOvVaw0Iv4gPaG40c1CkT1Yvv4yj

Ballynally

brickster69 wrote: »

Discharges are important as well age of admissions. The average age is 24 for UK hospital admissions at the moment due to the large increases in admissions of younger people under 30.

Only data available is from England 3 weeks ago which shows 115 admissions in 24 hrs and 110 discharged in 24 hrs. Admissions have risen in that time but no reason to suggest discharges have increased also.

Monthly COVID Publication June 2021 (XLSX, 3.0MB)

https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/

Thank you.
To summarise:(ENGLAND ONLY, NOT THE WHOLE UK)
In hospital w Covid19:

April 7: 2.486
May 1: 1.071
May 15: 810
May 31: 773 (lowest point)
June 14: 993
June 20: 1.168
June 22: 1.301 (latest data point).

New covid admissions: Age 18-54 (*) Age 55+
Jan 12: 3899 (peak)
April 7: 184........................... 59 108
May 1: 64 ........................... 32 29
May 15: 65 ............................ 35 28
May 31: 84............................ 41 50
June 6: 119 ........................ 71 40 (latest data point).

* seems strange to have a large grouping 18-54.
It doesnt really tell you much about the younger ages perhaps being more hospitalised.
18-40 would make more sense.

UK:
Admissions p day:
Jan 19: 4.960 (peak)
April 7: 235
May 1: 100
May 15: 90
June 1: 154
June 8: 188
June 15: 225

In hospital w Covid19:

Jan 18: 39.254
April 7: 3.018
May 1: 1.284
May 15: 964
June 1: 928
June 8: 1.055
June 15: 1.229
June 20: 1.378 (latest data point)

Make of the data what you will.

no admission data breakdown by age fr june 6 on.
Also important: surge testing pushing the case nrs up but not reflected in the same in hospital nrs, % wise..

brickster69

Yep it is strange, you can get an idea from the positive cases ages what is happening. Not hard to imagine lots of parents taking the young ones to hospital to get checked over.

https://twitter.com/OS51388957/status/1406541909280034821

Goldengirl

Ballynally wrote: »

Maybe or maybe not. I suspect that the % of young people ending up in hospital will be there for only a short while.
It would also be insightful if we could access the hospital data and see the nrs broken down by age, co morbidities, gender etc and the time of admittance and release. We did that in the beginning of the pandemic but it has gone out of fashion. The HSE/NHS probably do know but i cannot find the data.
My take on it is that it is likely the data is positive. Bad news travels fast and we'd probably know by now if young, healthy people got seriously ill and for longer periods and stay in hospital. We would have hospital doctors on the news highlighting this. All i know is seeing doctors warning us what might happen and thus keeping us alert w the fear factor intact which they presume leads people to be more cautious. It is a form of virtue signalling.
Im ok w that, knowing the reason behind it. It doesnt worry me..

Your posts are full of waffle but not based in reality.

Example" it would be insightful if we could access the hospital data" ...and .." WE did that in the beginning of the pandemic." .... WE?
No WE didn't !
And
Even if WE did, WE haven't been able to access patient records at all for the last six weeks !
Who are you , rereg May 2021 , with your " we did this " and " as I said before...." ?
Maybe if you disclosed your past user name WE could see what you really said through all this, or are you ashamed of your previous posts ?

Dempo1

Just a brief mention of today's UK figures

16,135 new cases
19 deaths

The highest since February 6th, I'll say no more

Micky 32

Dempo1 wrote: »

Just a brief mention of today's UK figures

16,135 new cases
19 deaths

The highest since February 6th, I'll say no more

Just a brief mention of today’s IRL figures

348 cases

41 in hospital ( 13 ICU)

Delta has been in Ireland quite sometime now, thousands being vaccinated everyday, I’ll say no more…

Dempo1

Micky 32 wrote: »

Just a brief mention of today’s IRL figures

348 cases

41 in hospital ( 13 ICU)

Delta been Irelnd quite sometime now, thousands being vaccinated everyday, I’ll say no more…

Touché, however check the case numbers for this date in 2020

Micky 32

Dempo1 wrote: »

Touché, however check the case numbers for this date in 2020

Who cares about 2020? We are in a different playing field. Google vaccines.

What were the hospital figures in 2020 when we had 3-400 cases a day?