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Child Item

The Delta variant

amandstu

How might this play out?

Apparently cases in England may be doubling every 4.5 days and resultant hospitalizations are said to be possibly between 2 and 3 times more likely that with the Alpha variant.

Only 1% prevalence here at the moment seemingly.

Back of envelope modeling in my sitting room is not reassuring and I am not near to getting my second AstraZeneca jab yet( so 30% protected against symptomatic disease?)

EDIT: Have been corrected in this thread that parts of England (not England as a whole) had cases doubling every 4.5 days

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Turtwig

[Deleted User] wrote: »

You reckon about 4 million have died in India from Covid? Did the death rate in India spike by 50% last year?

4 million may actually be an under count. That's how fcked up the situation there is. The FT did a brilliant analysis on India's death it's well worth a read. We'll never know the true figure. For example on days when they were reporting deaths of less than 300 cremations were numbering the 1,000s. Official COVID Deaths did not stack anywhere close to spike in the volume of end of life rituals being performed.

normanoffside

Turtwig wrote: »

4 million may actually be an under count. That's how fcked up the situation there is. The FT did a brilliant analysis on India's death it's well worth a read. We'll never know the true figure. For example on days when they were reporting deaths of less than 300 cremations were numbering the 1,000s. Official COVID Deaths did not stack anywhere close to spike in the volume of end of life rituals being performed.

Off topic but in the first wave there were more excess child deaths caused by restrictions than there were Covid deaths in India and neighbouring countries. Just worth bearing in mind when counting excess mortality.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-56425115

Lumen

normanoffside wrote: »

Off topic but in the first wave there were more excess child deaths caused by restrictions than there were Covid deaths in India and neighbouring countries. Just worth bearing in mind when counting excess mortality.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-56425115

You have wrongly summarised that article. The cause of the healthcare disruptions is a combination of disease and restrictions.

If hospitals are full of COVID patients then healthcare suffers.

normanoffside

Lumen wrote: »

You have wrongly summarised that article. The cause of the healthcare disruptions is a combination of disease and restrictions.

If hospitals are full of COVID patients then healthcare suffers.

Sorry, I think you’ve read it wrong. Only 6,000 died because they couldn’t get access to healthcare. Most died of malnutrition which I read as being starvation.

MadYaker

Deleted User wrote: »

Just because a number doesn't suit your argument, you can't just go throwing around 0's without a shred of evidence to back it up.

There's plenty of evidence to back it up, not that you're interested.

https://www.ft.com/content/6bd88b7d-3386-4543-b2e9-0d5c6fac846c

MadYaker

normanoffside wrote: »

Sorry, I think you’ve read it wrong. Only 6,000 died because they couldn’t get access to healthcare. Most died of malnutrition which I read as being starvation.

Utterly meaningless number that are worth fc*k all.

It kicked their asses but by the time it gets dominant here so many will be vaccinated that I don't think it'll make much difference, maybe they will delay nightclubs reopening or something. We can watch the UK and see how it plays out there to get an idea of what to expect.

[Deleted User]

MadYaker wrote: »

There's plenty of evidence to back it up, not that you're interested.

https://www.ft.com/content/6bd88b7d-3386-4543-b2e9-0d5c6fac846c

10x is an over estimation. Serious studies are landing at 6x - so only 2 million extra

OwenM

Boggles wrote: »

Are they?

They are IMO, June 12th is the highest daily case count since Feb. The rate of admission to hospital has gone up by about a third from ~85 to ~140 per day but the numbers in hospital are flat - this is over the last 6 weeks, I can't reconcile this.

June 11th - 7.2k cases
June 12th - 8k cases
June 13th - 7.6k cases
June 14th - 7.3k cases
June 15th - 7.6k cases
June 16th - 7.6k cases

robinph

OwenM wrote: »

They are IMO, June 12th is the highest daily case count since Feb. The rate of admission to hospital has gone up by about a third from ~85 to ~140 per day but the numbers in hospital are flat - this is over the last 6 weeks, I can't reconcile this.

June 11th - 7.2k cases
June 12th - 8k cases
June 13th - 7.6k cases
June 14th - 7.3k cases
June 15th - 7.6k cases
June 16th - 7.6k cases

Was just over 9k cases yesterday, but that is still not a massive increase or anything approaching the feared exponential growth that was being predicted a week or so ago. The hospital numbers are creaping up very slowly, but there is apparently more younger people going to hospital with less severe symptoms than before out of an abundance of caution, and then getting released again more quickly than people would in earlier waves, numbers of people on ventilation are also not increasing massively.

Locally for the various identified hot spots the cases and hospitalisations are dropping. Other than a bit of extra publicity around getting people vaccinated, which will barely have made any difference for those individuals yet, those areas haven't been doing anything different than the rest of the country... Which to me suggests that even in the hot spots the virus is quickly running up against a wall of high levels of vaccination and can't get any further.

Nationally numbers will continue to creep up for a bit longer, but doesn't look like there is anywhere much for the virus to go then.

[Deleted User]

robinph wrote: »

Was just over 9k cases yesterday, but that is still not a massive increase or anything approaching the feared exponential growth that was being predicted a week or so ago. The hospital numbers are creaping up very slowly, but there is apparently more younger people going to hospital with less severe symptoms than before out of an abundance of caution, and then getting released again more quickly than people would in earlier waves, numbers of people on ventilation are also not increasing massively.

Locally for the various identified hot spots the cases and hospitalisations are dropping. Other than a bit of extra publicity around getting people vaccinated, which will barely have made any difference for those individuals yet, those areas haven't been doing anything different than the rest of the country... Which to me suggests that even in the hot spots the virus is quickly running up against a wall of high levels of vaccination and can't get any further.

Nationally numbers will continue to creep up for a bit longer, but doesn't look like there is anywhere much for the virus to go then.

With the school testing programme, I would guess that there are a number of asymptomatic school age kids testing positive, who would not have been tested four months ago, so the connection between infection rates and hospitalisations is vastly different.

El_Duderino 09

OwenM wrote: »

They are IMO, June 12th is the highest daily case count since Feb. The rate of admission to hospital has gone up by about a third from ~85 to ~140 per day but the numbers in hospital are flat - this is over the last 6 weeks, I can't reconcile this.

June 11th - 7.2k cases
June 12th - 8k cases
June 13th - 7.6k cases
June 14th - 7.3k cases
June 15th - 7.6k cases
June 16th - 7.6k cases

People being admitted to hospital with less serious symptoms spending less time in hospital? Improved treatments might mean they are getting more admissions and also successfully treating people more quickly.

I don't pretend to know any of this, just speculating on how the numbers could reconcile.

Also yesterday saw 9,055 confirmed cases. They're reporting that cases are doubling every 11 days at a national level, at the current rate.

[Deleted User]

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

People being admitted to hospital with less serious symptoms spending less time in hospital? Improved treatments might mean they are getting more admissions and also successfully treating people more quickly.

I don't pretend to know any of this, just speculating on how the numbers could reconcile.

Also yesterday saw 9,055 confirmed cases. They're reporting that cases are doubling every 11 days at a national level, at the current rate.

as of the 12th June, there were around 1,200 people in hospital with Covid, at the peak of the last wave, there were over 40,000. the seven day average since early May has been between 900 and 1200

I presume if the hospitals are less congested, the chances of borderline cases being admitted is much higher, so someone who would not have been admitted t hospital in March, will be now.

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare

wadacrack

https://twitter.com/FergalBowers/status/1405524363684696071

ShineOn7

The last time I saw that figure (quite recently) it was at 135

"shure it'll be grand"

Micky 32

https://twitter.com/sailorrooscout/status/1405480574157000707?s=21

wadacrack

179 cases in NI today, quite high. Seems likely that the Delta variant is a reason why.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-57505097

ShineOn7

wadacrack wrote: »

179 cases in NI today, quite high. Seems likely that the Delta variant is a reason why.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-57505097

Wasn't there a report saying they'll be at 1,200 a day by mid July if it gets out of control?

wadacrack

ShineOn7 wrote: »

Wasn't there a report saying they'll be at 1,200 a day by mid July if it gets out of control?

Yea their was.

“Under a central scenario, at the end of August, 85% of adults having been double vaccinated, we’d anticipate that there will be around 1,100 cases a day of the virus,” he said.

“And that would translate, about three weeks later, into around 200-250 inpatient as a result of having acquired Covid in the community.”

The pessimistic projection would see the region recording more than 5,000 cases a day at a peak that would come at an earlier point in the summer.

https://www.itv.com/news/utv/2021-06-16/ni-could-see-1000-plus-covid-cases-a-day-by-end-of-summer-modelling-projects

Tyrone212

Surge testing is to be rolled out in the Omagh and Ballymoney after a number of probable cases of the Delta variant were identified.

PokeHerKing

Another + 20% increase in the UKs figures today. Where's that chap with the youtube links to tell us there's no increases

ShineOn7

wadacrack wrote: »

Yea their was.

“Under a central scenario, at the end of August, 85% of adults having been double vaccinated, we’d anticipate that there will be around 1,100 cases a day of the virus,” he said.

“And that would translate, about three weeks later, into around 200-250 inpatient as a result of having acquired Covid in the community.”

The pessimistic projection would see the region recording more than 5,000 cases a day at a peak that would come at an earlier point in the summer.

https://www.itv.com/news/utv/2021-06-16/ni-could-see-1000-plus-covid-cases-a-day-by-end-of-summer-modelling-projects

So we're being deers looking at an oncoming freight train again?

Great

[Deleted User]

ShineOn7 wrote: »

So we're being deers looking at an oncoming freight train again?

Great

https://twitter.com/newschambers/status/1405551547069747201

Or in reality, its not having much effect so far.

ShineOn7

AdamD wrote: »

https://twitter.com/newschambers/status/1405551547069747201

Or in reality, its not having much effect so far.

Just seen this too

https://twitter.com/newschambers/status/1405554076037824512

Boggles

Woody79 wrote: »

Yes have a look rather than ask.

Also Tim Spector says rates in hot spots in North of England seem to have plateued also.

I did look and Chris Whitty has declared you are talking complete bollíx.

Goldengirl

Micky 32 wrote: »

Negative possibilities can be mentioned on these threads all you want if it keeps ye all happy From tomorrow i’ll be fully vaxxed ( my partner got her second today). I’ll be retiring from these threads very soon and my life will now be on the path to normality, of course i’ll always be cautious along the way.

After my vaccination tomorrow to reward myself i’ll be booking a road trip to France for September. I might collect a few boxes of that auld grape juice on the way back
Tonight i have never felt this good about the future since before the pandemic

Delighted for you and know how you feel

It doesn't make me happy ( re negatives ie ) but like to explore all possibilities negative or positive , just my way of coping with it all . I feel I am prepared for whatever happens then .
These threads have been good and bad but mainly good for information and seeing how others are dealing with this sxxt situation , but thank God improving .
My family and I rarely discuss it and the forum has filled that gap for me .
Roll on September for your holidays and my concerts and life someway back to normal

ShineOn7

Chris Whitty warns current wave could be ‘significant’ and expects winter surge

‘We have to just be aware that Covid has not thrown its last surprise at us,’ says chief medical officer

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/chris-whitty-covid-winter-surge-b1867869.html

What's his previous form like for getting things right?

Micky 32

ShineOn7 wrote: »

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/chris-whitty-covid-winter-surge-b1867869.html

What's his previous form like for getting things right?

So by that article Whitty either has Alzeimers and forgot we have vaccines or he thinks the vaccines don’t work ( there’s too much evidence now that prove they are highly effective). So which is it? It feels like an article copied and pasted from 2020.

By the winter anyone who wanted a vaccine in the UK will be able to have one. There will be a huge mass vaccinated by then compared to now. I’m not fully buying the doomology of the apocalypse in that article to be honest.

Lumen

The logic around the potential of this current surge/wave seems quite simple.

In the places where Delta has stuck most severely, the current wave of infection has been about as bad as the last two, despite vaccinations, although with less hospitalisation and death.

If that spills over and repeats nationwide, then the effects will be significant.

It's not doom-mongering, it's about planning for a range of realistic scenarios.

Everyone hopes that it won't happen, and that the daily-increasing vaccinations particularly second doses of AZ snuff it out.

igCorcaigh

Lumen wrote: »

The logic around the potential of this current surge/wave seems quite simple.

In the places where Delta has stuck most severely, the current wave of infection has been about as bad as the last two, despite vaccinations, although with less hospitalisation and death.

If that spills over and repeats nationwide, then the effects will be significant.

It's not doom-mongering, it's about planning for a range of realistic scenarios.

Everyone hopes that it won't happen, and that the daily-increasing vaccinations particularly second doses of AZ snuff it out.

Yeah, but it's spreading in the young, unvaccinated group, which is to be expected.
As the vaccines rollout out to those groups soon (in the UK), this should fall off a cliff.

My concern here, is about all the older people who have only one Astra dose.
We should really get those people their second dose before relaxing restrictions.

Lyle

igCorcaigh wrote: »

My concern here, is about all the older people who have only one Astra dose.
We should really get those people their second dose before relaxing restrictions.

The plan is to get all the AZ doses used for second jabs by July 19th before signing off from using it, so that's only two weeks after indoor dining etc is expected to re-open on July 5th so it'll just be a case of some people holding out for their second AZ dose having to wait a little longer to safely avail of the lifted restrictions.

Unless the Delta numbers surge in the next few weeks, which its looking like they won't in the current pattern, there probably isn't the need to keep sectors due to reopen closed.