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The Delta variant

amandstu

How might this play out?

Apparently cases in England may be doubling every 4.5 days and resultant hospitalizations are said to be possibly between 2 and 3 times more likely that with the Alpha variant.

Only 1% prevalence here at the moment seemingly.

Back of envelope modeling in my sitting room is not reassuring and I am not near to getting my second AstraZeneca jab yet( so 30% protected against symptomatic disease?)

EDIT: Have been corrected in this thread that parts of England (not England as a whole) had cases doubling every 4.5 days

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Lumen

Jinglejangle69 wrote: »

"The health secretary, Matt Hancock, said on Sunday that out of the 18 patients in hospital in Bolton, one of the hotspots for the virus, five had been vaccinated. Of the remainder, he said “the vast majority” had been eligible for the vaccine but had not taken it so far"

From your link.

Yeah as I said, just going by the guardian article.

Nothing conclusive from it.

Matt Hancock has form on blaming vaccine hesitancy. He's an arse.

The more obvious conclusion is that a high rate of vaccination in the over 40s doesn't stop the virus spreading through the under 40s, and high deprivation -> crowded housing -> more intergenerational spread.

This rather defeats the "why don't the old people just hide for a bit" strategy being advocated by some. Still, we don't have a housing crisis so it'll be fine here, right?

TefalBrain

Government a few months back "Our goal is to protect the vulnerable and get them vaccinated then we can open up"

Government now "Oh oh Delta variant something something"

Nobody is buying into this rubbish anymore. They will make another excuse if given half a chance and keep us locked down for the winter.

Lumen

TefalBrain wrote: »

Government a few months back "Our goal is to protect the vulnerable and get them vaccinated then we can open up"

Government now "Oh oh Delta variant something something"

Nobody is buying into this rubbish anymore. They will make another excuse if given half a chance and keep us locked down for the winter.

In actual news, rather than whatever is going on in your head...

Summer rise of Delta variant will not affect reopening plans in Republic
Plans for a wider reopening of society on July 5th will not be affected by the possibility the highly transmissible Delta variant will spread in Ireland, senior Cabinet figures have confirmed.
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/summer-rise-of-delta-variant-will-not-affect-reopening-plans-in-republic-1.4593398

Furze99

Marine Layer wrote: »

Meanwhile
In Israel

https://twitter.com/segal_eran/status/1404675626208989184?s=20

And what about their Palestinian neighbours living in squalor nearby? Give us a break.

Lumen

Furze99 wrote: »

And what about their Palestinian neighbours living in squalor nearby? Give us a break.

I'm sure there's another forum for that discussion.

funnydoggy

Furze99 wrote: »

And what about their Palestinian neighbours living in squalor nearby? Give us a break.

Not the scope of the forum surely?

They've done one thing extremely well and it's the vaccine rollout.

The HorsesMouth

Goldengirl wrote: »

There is also a big difference in our situation with our open back door to the UK where this much more transmissible variant is taking over , and Europe who can restrict all UK travel .

I'm talking about the difference between us and the UK

CIARAN_BOYLE

OwenM wrote: »

You would have a third of the population isolating permanently in this scenario. How do you know a stuffy nose from mild hayfever is not the start of a cold?

Mild hay-fever responds quickly to otc antihistamines.

I see no reason why covid or a cold would.

It's OK it's a bit of hay-fever I'll take antihistamines and it will be gone in an hour.

[Deleted User]

Marine Layer wrote: »

Meanwhile
In Israel

https://twitter.com/segal_eran/status/1404675626208989184?s=20

Got very lucky.

Doesnt apply to 99% of the rest of the world.

Like saying in 2020, Meanwhile in Perth...

Might as well say meanwhile in 2019.

Your just talking...

SusanC10

I am just trying to understand the reasoning here.
If the vaccines do not stop transmission of the virus including Delta Variant then what is the point in only having 10 day isolation for non-fully-vaccinated people coming from UK ?
Also, any mention of children in this ?

Shelga

I had booked flights to London to see a friend for this Friday-Sunday, on the off chance I could go- flights were only €20 return :pac:

Don't think I'll bother- I'd have to get 3 PCR tests (one in London, one here after 5 days, another one after 10 days) and it just seems like a massive faff, regardless of how dangerous or not the Delta variant is. I'm 33 and unvaccinated too. Also, self-isolation technically means you don't leave your bedroom right?? Who on earth is actually sticking to that anymore?

Does anyone know how they'll actually enforce the tightened quarantine rules here though? Are they going to actually check you have 2x PCR tests upon your return?

ZX7R

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Got very lucky.

Doesnt apply to 99% of the rest of the world.

Like saying in 2020, Meanwhile in Perth...

Might as well say meanwhile in 2019.

Your just talking...

It has huge relevance to this tread,
Why because Israel have confirmed community transmission of the delta strain same time the uk.
But it is not spreading at the rates seen in other countries.
Mass testing in areas where the strain has been confirmed they are not finding the expected transmission as found in the uk.
Just shows that a highly vaccinated population such as Israel is more protected against the delta variant .
The ending of there mask mandate shows they are not even concerned.

Feria40

Shelga wrote: »

I had booked flights to London to see a friend for this Friday-Sunday, on the off chance I could go- flights were only €20 return :pac:

Don't think I'll bother- I'd have to get 3 PCR tests (one in London, one here after 5 days, another one after 10 days) and it just seems like a massive faff, regardless of how dangerous or not the Delta variant is. I'm 33 and unvaccinated too. Also, self-isolation technically means you don't leave your bedroom right?? Who on earth is actually sticking to that anymore?

Does anyone know how they'll actually enforce the tightened quarantine rules here though? Are they going to actually check you have 2x PCR tests upon your return?

Belfast.

Worth checking what the flight change cost will work out at.

(Negative chorus incoming!)

Lumen

Shelga wrote: »

I had booked flights to London to see a friend for this Friday-Sunday, on the off chance I could go- flights were only €20 return :pac:

Don't think I'll bother- I'd have to get 3 PCR tests (one in London, one here after 5 days, another one after 10 days) and it just seems like a massive faff, regardless of how dangerous or not the Delta variant is. I'm 33 and unvaccinated too. Also, self-isolation technically means you don't leave your bedroom right?? Who on earth is actually sticking to that anymore?

Does anyone know how they'll actually enforce the tightened quarantine rules here though? Are they going to actually check you have 2x PCR tests upon your return?

As far as am aware breaking quarantine (it's not isolation unless you are infected) is the only restriction which has a criminal sanction rather than a FCPN, so in theory you can end up with court appearance, 5k fine and/or prison.

:pac:

Panthro

Shelga wrote: »

I had booked flights to London to see a friend for this Friday-Sunday, on the off chance I could go- flights were only €20 return :pac:

Don't think I'll bother- I'd have to get 3 PCR tests (one in London, one here after 5 days, another one after 10 days) and it just seems like a massive faff, regardless of how dangerous or not the Delta variant is. I'm 33 and unvaccinated too. Also, self-isolation technically means you don't leave your bedroom right?? Who on earth is actually sticking to that anymore?

Does anyone know how they'll actually enforce the tightened quarantine rules here though? Are they going to actually check you have 2x PCR tests upon your return?

Why a third one after you return?
I thought you needed a PCR to get into Ireland. Cost ya a few quid. Then home quarantine and if you wanted to leave early you do a free test after 10 days. Am I missing something?

Skygord

Shelga wrote: »

Also, self-isolation technically means you don't leave your bedroom right??

No, that's if you're infected. You just have to remain at the address you nominate on your passenger locator form.

Shelga wrote: »

Does anyone know how they'll actually enforce the tightened quarantine rules here though?

You declare that you will reside at an address. You confirm this with a reply to a text that you'll receive on day 2. Dunno if Gards ever spot check, they didn't for my two periods of self quarantine after travel to the UK, maybe they will.

Shelga wrote: »

Are they going to actually check you have 2x PCR tests upon your return?

Your PCR tests in Ireland will be free at HSE test centres where you register with your personal details.

[Deleted User]

ZX7R wrote: »

It has huge relevance to this tread,
Why because Israel have confirmed community transmission of the delta strain same time the uk.
But it is not spreading at the rates seen in other countries.
Mass testing in areas where the strain has been confirmed they are not finding the expected transmission as found in the uk.
Just shows that a highly vaccinated population such as Israel is more protected against the delta variant .
The ending of there mask mandate shows they are not even concerned.

They are at 85% of adult population double dosed (herd immunity effects now).

UK and Ireland are 3 to 4 months from that.

So they got endless supply of fast acting efficacy vaccine.

We might get to that point by September.

Who knows?

We didnt have that supply and there is nothing we can do about that.

We have open land border with UK so we cannot become Australia.

My point is why dream or stress yourself about something we cannot control.

Take your vaccine when offered and try to avoid infection until fully vaxed.

Everything else is dreamland...

[Deleted User]

Lumen wrote: »

Matt Hancock has form on blaming vaccine hesitancy. He's an arse.

The more obvious conclusion is that a high rate of vaccination in the over 40s doesn't stop the virus spreading through the under 40s, and high deprivation -> crowded housing -> more intergenerational spread.

This rather defeats the "why don't the old people just hide for a bit" strategy being advocated by some. Still, we don't have a housing crisis so it'll be fine here, right?

Makes sense.

Under 40 year olds meet a lot more people.

They were too aggressive with opening.

Unless your like Israel with endless supply and little hesitancy this is a slow and frustrating process for every other country in the world.

ShineOn7

The absolute state of our nearest neighbor

Boris wanted to seen as the next Winston Chuchill, a warrior getting his country back to normal before anyone else

In actual fact he's closer to Neville Chamberlain or a bumbling Gordon Brown

https://twitter.com/ByDonkeys/status/1404822229939113989

Let's hope to jaysus that this isn't us this year because of their incompetence

giveitholly

How come cases are plummeting in India if the Delta strain is far more transmissable than previous strains?

[Deleted User]

giveitholly wrote: »

How come cases are plummeting in India if the Delta strain is far more transmissable than previous strains?

Its seasonal.

We need to get to herd immunity levels through vaccination.

Its a messy affair.

First in countries and then the world.

tom1ie

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Its seasonal.

We need to get to herd immunity levels through vaccination.

Its a messy affair.

First in countries and then the world.

Seasonal as in what?
The flus seasonal as in when people are inside more in the winter the flu spreads.
People are outside in the UK in the summer yet the cases are rising.
So sow is it seasonal unless we are saying it's summer seasonal which doesn't make sense.

Chris_5339762

The Delta/Indian variant has infected everyone "easy" to infect is my theory. It seems to me that every country must have one massive surge to "get" everyone really vulnerable. Then it seems to go away.

Bit cynical

ShineOn7 wrote: »

The absolute state of our nearest neighbor

Boris wanted to seen as the next Winston Chuchill, a warrior getting his country back to normal before anyone else

In actual fact he's closer to Neville Chamberlain or a bumbling Gordon Brown

Let's hope to jaysus that this isn't us this year because of their incompetence

In fairness, despite the rise in cases, they are not seeing the uptick in deaths that would normally have been expected at this stage given what happened in previous rises in daily cases. It is not as big a deal as might have been imagined.

ShineOn7

giveitholly wrote: »

How come cases are plummeting in India if the Delta strain is far more transmissable than previous strains?

The mind honestly boggles on here sometimes

Because there's already been 380,000 deaths there and 30 million cases (albeit not all Delta)

They've had their Wave of it and are now seeing the plummet

It's how Waves work

amandstu

wadacrack wrote: »

Every medical expert in the UK has stated that its the start of a third wave. I listen to them not opinions with a positive bias.

ShineOn7 wrote: »

The mind honestly boggles on here sometimes

Because there's already been 380,000 deaths there and 30 million cases (albeit not all Delta)

They've had their Wave of it and are now seeing the plummet

It's how Waves work

How do waves work?Why was their wave not bigger (or smaller,or longer or shorter)?

"It is a wave" is not an explanation.

My guess is that they got a shock and managed to reduce community transmission through the same methods we have.

They were vulnerable because for so long they were comparatively unscathed but got hit with the sucker punch of a significantly more infectious variant.

giveitholly

ShineOn7 wrote: »

The mind honestly boggles on here sometimes

Because there's already been 380,000 deaths there and 30 million cases (albeit not all Delta)

They've had their Wave of it and are now seeing the plummet

It's how Waves work

Well if this delta variant is so transmissable as we are being told how come the wave didn't last a lot longer? It seems to be declining at a rapid rate,no different to any other "variant". Surely with such a densely populated country like India it would take a lot longer for the wave to decline?

ShineOn7

giveitholly wrote: »

Well if this delta variant is so transmissable as we are being told how come the wave didn't last a lot longer?

Because it's burning/has burned itself out in India

Like all Waves do

I can't find how many in India the Delta variant killed, but out of 380,000 mortalities total since last March I'd imagine hundreds of thousands of those were from Delta

Same way the Kent variant Wave slayed us here in January and then passed

gozunda

TefalBrain wrote: »

Government a few months back "Our goal is to protect the vulnerable and get them vaccinated then we can open up"

Government now "Oh oh Delta variant something something"

Nobody is buying into this rubbish anymore. They will make another excuse if given half a chance and keep us locked down for the winter.

"Our goal is to protect the vulnerable and get them vaccinated then we can open up"

Who said that TefalBrain?

Bit cynical

giveitholly wrote: »

Well if this delta variant is so transmissable as we are being told how come the wave didn't last a lot longer? It seems to be declining at a rapid rate,no different to any other "variant". Surely with such a densely populated country like India it would take a lot longer for the wave to decline?

Would you not expect a highly transmissible virus to burn through the population at a faster rate and therefore decline faster having done so?