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The Delta variant

amandstu

How might this play out?

Apparently cases in England may be doubling every 4.5 days and resultant hospitalizations are said to be possibly between 2 and 3 times more likely that with the Alpha variant.

Only 1% prevalence here at the moment seemingly.

Back of envelope modeling in my sitting room is not reassuring and I am not near to getting my second AstraZeneca jab yet( so 30% protected against symptomatic disease?)

EDIT: Have been corrected in this thread that parts of England (not England as a whole) had cases doubling every 4.5 days

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Goldengirl

Stheno wrote: »

Personally unfettered access for UK tourists to come here while bars and restaurants are only open outdoors would really annoy me

Id also disagree that its a carbon copy of Christmas given the vaccine administration

Control on UK travellers would be priority 1 for me tbh

Agree that's the main priority for us now , otherwise it will be like Christmas again!

antimatterx

Indian variant *

Goldengirl

Woody79 wrote: »

Probably still better than indoor pubs and restaurants.

No way nphet or government are going to agree to open these establishments indoors with delta on the rise. Much easier to delay or defer priveleges until ireland and UK are in better place vaccination wise.Im sure UK wished they had not opened indoor pubs. Delta is here but try to keep it from becoming dominant for as long as possible until vaccines are rolled out further.

But is it , on the rise ..here, I mean?
They have substantially had Alpha replaced with Delta in UK .
Here not so ..yet .
So if we have that advantage and use it, by controlling travel from UK strictly , while we roll on with our vaccination it might not make a great deal of difference .

hmmm

Stheno wrote: »

Control on UK travellers would be priority 1 for me tbh

Any idea that we are going to control UK travellers is pie in the sky. The two islands are effectively one interlinked social area.

I'm sure the government will look to bring in new regulations, and they will be ignored the same as the previous.

We're also not going to go with the ludicrous notion of MHQ for people from the UK.

We need a different plan for a variant which is spreading 1.5 to 2 times faster than an already fast-spreading variant - I'm not sure we quite appreciate what this means. Delaying indoor reopening for a few weeks wouldn't be the end of the world if needs be, and the pandemic would then effectively be over for us.

Stheno

hmmm wrote: »

Any idea that we are going to control UK travellers is pie in the sky. The two islands are effectively one interlinked social area.

I'm sure the government will look to bring in new regulations, and they will be ignored the same as the previous.

We're also not going to go with the ludicrous notion of MHQ for people from the UK.

We need a different plan for a variant which is spreading 1.5 to 2 times faster than an already fast-spreading variant - I'm not sure we quite appreciate what this means. Delaying indoor reopening for a few weeks wouldn't be the end of the world if needs be, and the pandemic would then effectively be over for us.

So frustrating tbh

[Deleted User]

Goldengirl wrote: »

But is it , on the rise ..here, I mean?
They have substantially had Alpha replaced with Delta in UK .
Here not so ..yet .
So if we have that advantage and use it, by controlling travel from UK strictly , while we roll on with our vaccination it might not make a great deal of difference .

25% of cases in NI are Delta. Its here on our island in numbers.

expectationlost

Stheno wrote: »

Current government thinking is that reopening will not be delayed it seems

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/covid-19-ministers-confident-delta-variant-will-not-derail-reopening-plans-1.4593130?mode=amp

because the period between the first and second AstraZeneca doses is much longer in the UK than in the State, where it has been reduced to eight weeks from 12 weeks.

i thought most people were still on a 12 week schedule atleast and a lot had been getting AZ had been given a 16 week plan and the Irish gov were only slowly moving to shorter gap and how long is the gap in the UK?

Goldengirl

Woody79 wrote: »

25% of cases in NI are Delta. Its here on our island in numbers.

Yes unfortunately.
Well then we are looking at it affecting our opening of indoor hospitality until a substantially majority vaccinated fully, whenever that will be

Outdoors open all up as much as possible .
There are many establishments that will be devastated as they don't have outdoor facilities.
When it was envisaged we would have an outdoor summer why could Parks/ green areas in cities and towns not have been repurposed with licensed areas for those bars and restaurants with covers and tables so that they could continue trading and people would be socialising in a more controlled manner .
Seems a waste . The grass will grow again , in the meantime jobs could be saved .
Outdoor summer , easy to say , but SFA done by the powers that be to facilitate that !

Ficheall

The HorsesMouth wrote: »

Big difference between the UK postponing the complete removal of all restrictions for 4 weeks compared to us with our indoor dining/6 at a table/105 minute rules.

Is there that big a difference between free for all and 6 at a table for ~2 hours? Some difference, sure, but is it that huge an amount? I'd imagine most groups would be covered in either instance. Even assuming the 6/105 were actually enforced.

Turtwig

hmmm wrote: »

Any idea that we are going to control UK travellers is pie in the sky. The two islands are effectively one interlinked social area.

I'm sure the government will look to bring in new regulations, and they will be ignored the same as the previous.

We're also not going to go with the ludicrous notion of MHQ for people from the UK.

We need a different plan for a variant which is spreading 1.5 to 2 times faster than an already fast-spreading variant - I'm not sure we quite appreciate what this means. Delaying indoor reopening for a few weeks wouldn't be the end of the world if needs be, and the pandemic would then effectively be over for us.

Have to agree. Travel restrictions to the UK will not happen to the effective level required. We're going to need to mass testing and other measures to keep the delta levels suppressed for as long as possible.

PHE have demonstrated that delta can spread very easily. Even though delta's level is low now it doesn't take much for it to take off. The take off is what we ideally need to delay as long as possible.

If it does take off in the next few weeks then all the politicians words about not changing our plans will be utter bollix. Least, I hope they will be. If delta does gain a foothold before significant vaccine levels and we don't change our approach then we're in for a pretty bleak time.

niallo27

50% of the population has received their first dose, our most vulnerable are fully vaccinated, we are in the middle of summer and our hospitals are empty and people are comparing the situation to Christmas, this has to be a wind up. Nobody actually thinks this do they.

Goldengirl

Turtwig wrote: »

Have to agree. Travel restrictions to the UK will not happen to the effective level required. We're going to need to mass testing and other measures to keep the delta levels suppressed for as long as possible.

PHE have demonstrated that delta can spread very easily. Even though delta's level is low now it doesn't take much for it to take off. The take off is what we ideally need to delay as long as possible.

If it does take off in the next few weeks then all the politicians words about not changing our plans will be utter bollix. Least, I hope they will be. If delta does gain a foothold before significant vaccine levels and we don't change our approach then we're in for a pretty bleak time.

Yes, deja vu

And ministers utterances have been ill timed and ill considered so many times before I really pay them no heed anymore.

niallo27

Turtwig wrote: »

Have to agree. Travel restrictions to the UK will not happen to the effective level required. We're going to need to mass testing and other measures to keep the delta levels suppressed for as long as possible.

PHE have demonstrated that delta can spread very easily. Even though delta's level is low now it doesn't take much for it to take off. The take off is what we ideally need to delay as long as possible.

If it does take off in the next few weeks then all the politicians words about not changing our plans will be utter bollix. Least, I hope they will be. If delta does gain a foothold before significant vaccine levels and we don't change our approach then we're in for a pretty bleak time.

Pretty bleak time, what does this mean for you, hospitals overrun, back to 2km restrictions. What does bleak mean for you.

Turtwig

niallo27 wrote: »

50% of the population has received their first dose, our most vulnerable are fully vaccinated, we are in the middle of summer and our hospitals are empty and people are comparing the situation to Christmas, this has to be a wind up. Nobody actually thinks this do they.

Comparison doesn't mean exact identical equivalence. A geysey and a fountain both spout water.

There are similarities to the Christmas situation (potential for import of high level of infection from UK) there are also differences (vulnerable groups given some level of vaccine protection).

It's not a bad comparison imo. Our biggest vulnerability to delta is the UK.

Goldengirl

niallo27 wrote: »

50% of the population has received their first dose, our most vulnerable are fully vaccinated, we are in the middle of summer and our hospitals are empty and people are comparing the situation to Christmas, this has to be a wind up. Nobody actually thinks this do they.

No, but the situation in UK has changed from very positive and opening up to a bit gloomy and slowing down because of this particular variant, in the space of 6 weeks .
So nobody wants to think this as we have been rolling along nicely ...

[Deleted User]

niallo27 wrote: »

50% of the population has received their first dose, our most vulnerable are fully vaccinated, we are in the middle of summer and our hospitals are empty and people are comparing the situation to Christmas, this has to be a wind up. Nobody actually thinks this do they.

I dont think its Christmas at all tbh in terms of impacts/outcome.

Over 2000 deaths at Christmas and thousand's in our hospitals.

Its still not last summer either in terms of cases.

We just have to delay any more re-openings and slow the spread from
mainland UK.

Nothing we can do about NI.

Delta cases are growing there significantly and stupidly they opened indoor pubs there which would be hard to undo now if not impossible.

The HorsesMouth

Ficheall wrote: »

Is there that big a difference between free for all and 6 at a table for ~2 hours? Some difference, sure, but is it that huge an amount? I'd imagine most groups would be covered in either instance. Even assuming the 6/105 were actually enforced.

No but there's a big difference between nightclubs fully open and our indoor dining rules.
One is a free for all and the rest is heavily restricted.

Goldengirl

Woody79 wrote: »

I dont think its Christmas at all tbh in terms of impacts/outcome.

Over 2000 deaths at Christmas and thousand's in our hospitals.

Its still not last summer either in terms of cases.

We just have to delay any more re-openings and slow the spread from
mainland UK.

Nothing we can do about NI.

Delta cases are growing there significantly and stupidly they opened indoor pubs there which would be hard to undo now if not impossible.

Not impossible , just bloody unpopular .

Rayne Wooney

hmmm wrote: »

Any idea that we are going to control UK travellers is pie in the sky. The two islands are effectively one interlinked social area.

I'm sure the government will look to bring in new regulations, and they will be ignored the same as the previous.

We're also not going to go with the ludicrous notion of MHQ for people from the UK.

We need a different plan for a variant which is spreading 1.5 to 2 times faster than an already fast-spreading variant - I'm not sure we quite appreciate what this means. Delaying indoor reopening for a few weeks wouldn't be the end of the world if needs be, and the pandemic would then effectively be over for us.

A few weeks makes no difference, if we open on 19th of July we’ll be on around 97 doses per 100 people, the UK are on 107 per 100 people now and look where their trend is going.

We are in a position to open up now, there’s effectively nobody in hospital and cases have been stable for 2 months, we should be treating anyone that comes in from the UK almost like the Americans would treat a terrorist with 4 pounds of C4, drastic but it needs to be done for the sake of this country and the economy. Iceland is surrounded by water, zero covid cases in the last 3 weeks.

If what you are saying is true and people are streaming back in here, some with the variant without a doubt, then on the 5th of July and the weeks following we’ll have a spike in cases and if each person is infecting 6 by early August we’ll be where the UK are now heading for a nice 3rd wave in time for schools reopening. We’ll be locked down until October, it’s insanity.

You are correct, we need a plan, but it doesn’t involve pushing back our reopening when we are in a great place, it might involve properly monitoring the fúcking borders and not wasting our time having Gardai clear streets of the capital in riot gear.

niallo27

Turtwig wrote: »

Comparison doesn't mean exact identical equivalence. A geysey and a fountain both spout water.

There are similarities to the Christmas situation (potential for import of high level of infection from UK) there are also differences (vulnerable groups given some level of vaccine protection).

It's not a bad comparison imo. Our biggest vulnerability to delta is the UK.

Some level, the vast majority of the vulnerable are full vaccinated. The vast majority of the people that died or got seriously sick after Christmas were the vulnerable.

Goldengirl

niallo27 wrote: »

Some level, the vast majority of the vulnerable are full vaccinated. The vast majority of the people that died or got seriously sick after Christmas were the vulnerable.

People who are vulnerable can still get infected if community transmission of this variant is running high , not to mention a good proportion of those who are only half vaccinated . None of the vaccines are 100% effective although they are excellent.
Not to mention the more infected more younger people will get seriously ill . as well although in much lower numbers .

Deaths maybe would not be as high .

Stheno

niallo27 wrote: »

Some level, the vast majority of the vulnerable are full vaccinated. The vast majority of the people that died or got seriously sick after Christmas were the vulnerable.

There are literally hundreds of thousands of 60 year old waiting for a second dose and the same amount of younger cohort seven at risk people who have not even received a first dose.

These are all especially vulnerable

My thing to do is eating out I missed it the past few months.

Much and all as it pisses me off if reopening indoor being delayed means we vaccinate more and start truly getting to the end of this, I'll wait

hmmm

Rayne Wooney wrote: »

it might involve properly monitoring the fúcking borders

Unless you're going to close the border with NI that is simply impossible.

We can do some border theatre and imprison people coming on off a plane, meanwhile there'll be 10 more planes behind it and also people driving off ferries. We're too interlinked. It's not realistic and is a waste of resources. We can live with the risk of all these visitors if everything is being done outdoors.

We're talking worst-case anyway and a delay of only a few weeks. At Christmas there was 100% certainty as to what was going to happen to anyone who had been paying attention, now with Delta there is a lot of work going on by public health to try and contact trace outbreaks which appears to be having an impact.

But you can't reopen pubs and nightclubs and have large weddings if someone from the UK might be inside and there are large numbers of unvaccinated people. This variant appears to be highly transmissible and while we still don't have enough data, the early data we have on hospital admissions is concerning.

Happydays2020

Stheno wrote: »

There are literally hundreds of thousands of 60 year old waiting for a second dose and the same amount of younger cohort seven at risk people who have not even received a first dose.

These are all especially vulnerable

My thing to do is eating out I missed it the past few months.

Much and all as it pisses me off if reopening indoor being delayed means we vaccinate more and start truly getting to the end of this, I'll wait

Why can’t we open indoor dining for over seventies and more generally fully vaccinated. I am not fully vaccinated and fully accept that restrictions apply to me until I am fully vaccinated.

Stheno

Happydays2020 wrote: »

Why can’t we open indoor dining for over seventies and more generally fully vaccinated. I am not fully vaccinated and fully accept that restrictions apply to me until I am fully vaccinated.

Cue screams of discrimination and the suffering of the younger generation?

My partner is fully vaxxed and I will be by the end of this month so of course I support your suggestion but do think its unfair

Happydays2020

Stheno wrote: »

Cue screams of discrimination and the suffering of the younger generation?

My partner is fully vaxxed and I will be by the end of this month so of course I support your suggestion but do think its unfair

But is it unfair to older people who have been frightened ****less for 15 months and have borne the brunt if this in Months of isolation or to businesses who have had to close for so long and could do with custom. Maybe, in the round, it is fair.

[Deleted User]

niallo27 wrote: »

50% of the population has received their first dose, our most vulnerable are fully vaccinated, we are in the middle of summer and our hospitals are empty and people are comparing the situation to Christmas, this has to be a wind up. Nobody actually thinks this do they.

The ludicrous equivalence with Christmas somehow persists, even after more than three million vaccines sharply driving down hospitalisations. The bastion of the genuinely simple-minded or smug jobsworths posting in bad faith? I'm leaning towards the latter. This preposterous fearmongering has got to stop, elderly & most vulnerable are now vaccinated and specious arguments no longer fly. Life. Must. Go. On.

Goldengirl

The HorsesMouth wrote: »

No but there's a big difference between nightclubs fully open and our indoor dining rules.
One is a free for all and the rest is heavily restricted.

There is also a big difference in our situation with our open back door to the UK where this much more transmissible variant is taking over , and Europe who can restrict all UK travel .

Goldengirl

Deleted User wrote: »

The ludicrous equivalence with Christmas somehow persists, even after more than three million vaccines sharply driving down hospitalisations. The bastion of the genuinely simple-minded or smug jobsworths posting in bad faith? I'm leaning towards the latter. This preposterous fearmongering has got to stop, elderly & most vulnerable are now vaccinated and specious arguments no longer fly. Life. Must. Go. On.

You really need to stop using all this hyperbole in your posts .
It just reads like anger venting and name calling .
How many are you giving out about in this post ?
Maybe try some mindfulness .

Rayne Wooney

hmmm wrote: »

Unless you're going to close the border with NI that is simply impossible.

We can do some border theatre and imprison people coming on off a plane, meanwhile there'll be 10 more planes behind it and also people driving off ferries. We're too interlinked. It's not realistic and is a waste of resources. We can live with the risk of all these visitors if everything is being done outdoors.

We're talking worst-case anyway and a delay of only a few weeks. At Christmas there was 100% certainty as to what was going to happen to anyone who had been paying attention, now with Delta there is a lot of work going on by public health to try and contact trace outbreaks which appears to be having an impact.

But you can't reopen pubs and nightclubs and have large weddings if someone from the UK might be inside and there are large numbers of unvaccinated people. This variant appears to be highly transmissible and while we still don't have enough data, the early data we have on hospital admissions is concerning.

“Ah sure we’ll see what happens in two weeks” will never fly with the public - you know it, I know it, even Tony H knows it. It’ll need to be 4 weeks to have any kind of meaningful effect. Nobody in this country will accept pushing the July reopening to 2nd of August, there will be people travelling all over Europe by then, festivals etc

5th of July will happen, we will be in dire straits otherwise.