tom1ie wrote: » I’ve asked this on two separate occasions here and haven’t got a straight answer. As above if vulnerable and elderly are vaccinated why should it matter if we have a high caseload? It shouldn’t translate into high hospital cases as the most at risk are vaccinated. Are we saying delta is more deadly (I don’t at spreading I mean at harming an individual), than the original?
[Deleted User] wrote: » Of course. Pfzier is the best vaccine for europe in the middle of a pandemic because: 1. It works very quickly on the body. 2. It has a relatively good safety profile. Every vaccine has pro's and con's. Its great that we have so many.
tom1ie wrote: » As above if vulnerable and elderly are vaccinated why should it matter if we have a high caseload? It shouldn’t translate into high hospital cases as the most at risk are vaccinated. Are we saying delta is more deadly (I don’t at spreading I mean at harming an individual), than the original?
[Deleted User] wrote: » Is it though? If you have no underlying conditions, one dose is probably close to 100% probability of keeping you out of hospital. In the first instance your not expecting it to put you in hospital (as you are a normal healthy person), but this gives your body a head start to fighting the infection properly from day 1 (virus is not novel to your immune system). The second dose is to strengthen and mature your immunity.
astrofool wrote: » Because 1% of 10,000 is the same as 10% of 1,000, i.e. while the risk is lower per person, if the infected number goes up, the hospitals quickly get overwhelmed.
hmmm wrote: » Everyone is "vulnerable" to some extent. Even a certain number of healthy younger people are going to end up in hospital, and some of them will die. The modelling is showing that Delta is more infectious, and more likely to put people into hospital. I'm not sure whether there is data showing it leads to more deaths. There is enough younger and unvaccinated people to create the risk of a new wave which might overwhelm hospitals. If Delta had arrived a year ago we'd have been in big trouble - it may not be entirely controllable, even with lockdowns. The good news is obviously that the vaccines offer good protection, and we are nearly there in getting large numbers vaccinated. Delta is a blip, but one we need to control and can't ignore. I think it's likely we will have to delay indoor reopening a few weeks to get more people vaccinated, but that depends on the figures over the next while.
tom1ie wrote: » How many hospital cases did we get in the under 39’s in the first three waves as a percentage of overall cases? The virus effected the elderly and vulnerable predominantly. I’m not saying there won’t be hospitalisations in the under 39s but saying the health service could be overwhelmed is a bit of a stretch no? Unless everyone thinks the delta variant is a lot more harming to the individual than the wuhan variant?
tom1ie wrote: » Unless everyone thinks the delta variant is a lot more harming to the individual than the wuhan variant?
Aegir wrote: » Jesus, you can’t help yourself can you. The best vaccine is the one you can get now.
hmmm wrote: » I think it's likely we will have to delay indoor reopening a few weeks to get more people vaccinated, but that depends on the figures over the next while.
Government plans for a wider reopening of the economy and society from July 5th will not be affected by the likelihood that the highly transmissible Covid-19 Delta variant will spread in Ireland, Cabinet members believe. Senior Government sources dismissed the suggestion that the variant might affect the schedule for the reopening of society, after British prime minister Boris Johnson announced a postponement of the last stages of reopening in England. The sources based this on the fact that the UK is at a different stage of reopening than Ireland; and because the period between the first and second AstraZeneca doses is much longer in the UK than in the State, where it has been reduced to eight weeks from 12 weeks. The second dose of AstraZeneca is more than 80 per cent effective against the variant. “The narrative that our reopening will slow down is not true,” one Minister said privately. “I don’t believe Delta will affect our reopening plan. Indeed, the plan to move ahead with the next stage on July 5th still remains intact.”
Tyrone212 wrote: » Basic words don't translate well on here it seems. He said 1 dose completely prevented all hospitalisation and death and ensured only minor symptoms. AstraZeneca one dose cuts the risk of hospitalisation by 71%. 71% isn't 100%. Its so simple to understand,this is bizarre.
Jinglejangle69 wrote: » I think you're the one finding it hard to understand. It's 71% chance of catching it.
average_runner wrote: » Image shows the percentages
Jinglejangle69 wrote: » I think you're the one finding it hard to understand. It's 71% chance of catching it. "The Pfizer-BioNTech jab was found to provide 79% protection against infection from the Delta variant, compared with 92% against the Alpha strain, In community cases at least two weeks after the second dose. "PM urges caution as COVID cases rise The Oxford-AstraZeneca jab offered 60% protection against infection with the Delta variant - compared with 73% for the Alpha variant.
Stheno wrote: » Current government thinking is that reopening will not be delayed it seems
hmmm wrote: » It potentially is. Some scientists estimate it doubles the number of hospitalisations. It hasn't been around long enough in the West to get a good understanding of mortality, but it doesn't look good. The above is enough for an RTE journalist to go running to their variant headline generator, but the message about vaccines needs to be repeated. We just have to delay the variant long enough to give as many people as possible the protection of a vaccine.
GeorgeBailey wrote: » If they are considering delaying indoor opening they'll need to start flying kites about it pretty soon. It'll be hard enough to sell now. But the longer they wait on pulling the rug on it the more restaurant and pub owners will be (rightly) p!ssed off.
hmmm wrote: » Is the UK 2-dose effectiveness data based on a 12 week gap? I don't believe I've seen data on an 8 week gap. If I remember correctly, the Astra Zeneca vaccine worked better the longer the gap. The UK scientists have been superb throughout, even if the politicians ignored them. If they've convinced Boris to delay reopening at huge cost, I'd be careful about us promising anything.
[Deleted User] wrote: » They can operate outside. They dont have to sell anything to anyone. That statement is so 2020. Public can tolerate alot more than you think and what most of us thought last year also. My view is indoor pubs restaurants wont open in ireland until there is a sort of herd immunity level in UK and Ireland (85% of adult population double vaccinated). No way Tony will advocate that after Alpha spread at Christmas. Delta spread in ireland would definitely be sped up by opening indoor pubs and restaurants. He didnt know that at Christmas but he knows it now. This is about harm reduction now. Let people socialise but sensibly and outdoors if at all possible until every has the opportunity of a vaccine.
The HorsesMouth wrote: » Highly doubt this will be the case. We are the last country in Europe not to have indoor dining open. Big difference between the UK postponing the complete removal of all restrictions for 4 weeks compared to us with our indoor dining/6 at a table/105 minute rules.
Woody79 wrote: » They can operate outside. They dont have to sell anything to anyone. That statement is so 2020. Public can tolerate alot more than you think and what most of us thought last year also. My view is indoor pubs restaurants wont open in ireland until there is a sort of herd immunity level in UK and Ireland (85% of adult population double vaccinated). No way Tony will advocate that after Alpha spread at Christmas. Delta spread in ireland would definitely be sped up by opening indoor pubs and restaurants. He didnt know that at Christmas but he knows it now. This is about harm reduction now. Let people socialise but sensibly and outdoors if at all possible until every has the opportunity of a vaccine.
Stheno wrote: » Current government thinking is that reopening will not be delayed it seemshttps://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/covid-19-ministers-confident-delta-variant-will-not-derail-reopening-plans-1.4593130?mode=amp
Woody79 wrote: » They can operate outside. They dont have to sell anything to anyone. That statement is so 2020. Public can tolerate alot more than you think and what most of us thought last year also.
hmmm wrote: » The way I see it this is a carbon copy almost of December. There is a new strain circulating in the UK (and inevitably in Ireland) which most of the rest of Europe does not have (or is at very low levels). There are no comparisons between these islands and what Europe is doing. We know this thing will spread explosively indoors. We know this. We're going to have lots of UK tourists over here shortly, and the quarantine requirements were widely ignored in December and will be again. So in order to reopen safely we need to get infections down to a really low level, or we need wide vaccination coverage. The second one will happen but it will take a few weeks longer than previously thought (perhaps 4 weeks), and the first one is up for debate. I'd lift all restrictions on outdoors activities however. We must know by now that outdoors is not risk-free, but it won't lead to widespread transmission.
Stheno wrote: » I don't think you get that sensible outdoor socialising is not something a large minority of people will comply with Keeping restaurants and bars shut or outdoor only will simply drive people to socialise at home
Stheno wrote: » Personally unfettered access for UK tourists to come here while bars and restaurants are only open outdoors would really annoy me Id also disagree that its a carbon copy of Christmas given the vaccine administration Control on UK travellers would be priority 1 for me tbh
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