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The Delta variant

amandstu

How might this play out?

Apparently cases in England may be doubling every 4.5 days and resultant hospitalizations are said to be possibly between 2 and 3 times more likely that with the Alpha variant.

Only 1% prevalence here at the moment seemingly.

Back of envelope modeling in my sitting room is not reassuring and I am not near to getting my second AstraZeneca jab yet( so 30% protected against symptomatic disease?)

EDIT: Have been corrected in this thread that parts of England (not England as a whole) had cases doubling every 4.5 days

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Turtwig

Micky 32 wrote: »

Wadacrack do you get a fix out of doom and gloom? It’s your constant narrative.

Ehh? I think you've got the wrong poster there. Just a few weeks ago wadacrack posted a FT thread suggesting delta may not be a major problem. That was optimistic iirc. Then last week they posted the latest FT assessment which was more concerning.

That is not a constant narrative of doom and gloom.

[Deleted User]

Turtwig wrote: »

We will have to. However is our goal to have covid endemic to malaria like levels in a third world country? Or something like have covid endemic to our domestic measles and mumps levels where there are outbreaks but the disease is largely controlled and shielded from the public at large?

Id prefer something along the latter. Vaccination will also us achieve that. Provided we don't let things go nuts until we have enough vaccinated.
People stating we have to learn to live with covid don't actually live with any disease in that sense and I really don't feel they understand just what living long term with a high level of endemic covid would mean.

We have vaccines that can avoid that. No point in coming this far to regress.

Did you mean to quote me? I don't remember saying anything about not vaccinating.

We're already at a very high level of at-risk people vaccinated. I'd prefer no-one to die but at some point there's a decision to be made. We can continue a massively risk-averse approach with 10% unemployment and businesses shut down or we can hurry up with vaccinating and accept a certain level of illness and deaths. When the majority of deaths are of people who are above average life expectancy then tbh my main reaction to it to shrug.

ShineOn7

Boggles wrote: »

Extremely valuable data on vaccine effectiveness in the next 2-4 weeks.

Isn't the UK mostly inoculated with AZ (60% effectiveness against Delta)?

Genuine question as I've lost track/interest

robinph

ShineOn7 wrote: »

Isn't the UK mostly inoculated with AZ (60% effectiveness against Delta)?

Genuine question as I've lost track/interest

Over 80% of the adult population vaccinated, and 60% of those with Astra Zeneca. Current new vaccinations are mostly Pfizer and Moderna so that ratio will be changing.

Micky 32

Turtwig wrote: »

Ehh? I think you've got the wrong poster there. Just a few weeks ago wadacrack posted a FT thread suggesting delta may not be a major problem. That was optimistic iirc. Then last week they posted the latest FT assessment which was more concerning.

That is not a constant narrative of doom and gloom.

Yeah you could be right. Wadacrack did post above about the USA and it does say in the article just because the Delta variant is there ( 10%) it doesn’t necessarily mean there will be a sharp uptick in cases. Looks quite positive on the whole.

El_Duderino 09

robinph wrote: »

Over 80% of the adult population vaccinated, and 60% of those with Astra Zeneca. Current new vaccinations are mostly Pfizer and Moderna so that ratio will be changing.

They decided not to give the over 40s the AZ - mostly Pfizer instead. And they are vaccinating people in their 20s now. So the numbers will change a bit as they continue vaccinating the under 40s.

hmmm

I don't mean to sound sensationalist, but it looks to me that this variant is going to cut through unvaccinated populations quite quickly if given the chance. The US has large pockets of unvaccinated in certain areas (red states), so even though they have reasonable national vaccination coverage that varies widely depending on the area. This variant is a problem that could accelerate quite quickly, but only in localised outbreaks.

We don't really have that same problem, but we do have a large chunk of people not vaccinated yet. The challenge will be to suppress the spread until we do. If we are sensible it should be very manageable.

I read an interview with Drosten in Germany recently and he was quite blunt - he thinks 100% of us will be exposed to the virus over the next few years, so either get vaccinated or take your chances with Covid.

average_runner

robinph wrote: »

Over 80% of the adult population vaccinated, and 60% of those with Astra Zeneca. Current new vaccinations are mostly Pfizer and Moderna so that ratio will be changing.

Is that not 80% first dose but 40% fully vaccinated?

Micky 32

hmmm wrote: »

I read an interview with Drosten in Germany recently and he was quite blunt - he thinks 100% of us will be exposed to the virus over the next few years, so either get vaccinated or take your chances with Covid.

Ah natural herd immunity in just a few years :pac:

Yep keep rolling them sleeves up!

Boggles

ShineOn7 wrote: »

Isn't the UK mostly inoculated with AZ (60% effectiveness against Delta)?

Genuine question as I've lost track/interest

62.1% first dose, 44.9% second dose.

They don't really have concrete data on severe illness yet, the 30% odd effectiveness first dose is people who become symptomatic.

The BBC are suggesting 5% hospital rate on confirmed cases, no idea where there got this from.

I can't imagine it being that high, if it is, that will could potentially mean trouble.

robinph

average_runner wrote: »

Is that not 80% first dose but 40% fully vaccinated?

80% with one dose and 55% with two doses. Give or take a bit.

Turtwig

hmmm wrote: »

I don't mean to sound sensationalist, but it looks to me that this variant is going to cut through unvaccinated populations quite quickly if given the chance. The US has large pockets of unvaccinated in certain areas (red states), so even though they have reasonable national vaccination coverage that varies widely depending on the area. This variant is a problem that could accelerate quite quickly, but only in localised outbreaks.

We don't really have that same problem, but we do have a large chunk of people not vaccinated yet. The challenge will be to suppress the spread until we do. If we are sensible it should be very manageable.

I read an interview with Drosten in Germany recently and he was quite blunt - he thinks 100% of us will be exposed to the virus over the next few years, so either get vaccinated or take your chances with Covid.

This is my understanding too.
Ireland is in a good position. Just we need to be careful. We need to delay the delta as long as possible. The more we have fully vaccinated the better. Public Health England have indicated the possibility that risk of hospitalisation from the delta to the unvaccinated is double that of the Kent variant. We just need to stick with what we're at and monitor our situation closely. I think indoor reopenings may hit a snag but it's too early to tell yet. Our vaccination program is going really smoothly at the moment. We have also suppressed the delta so far.

El_Duderino 09

Hardyn wrote: »

In the last PHE report it showed 383 hospital admissions from 33,206 cases of Delta. That's just over 1% so definitely not accurate.

Yeah but the spike in hospitalisations have typically come 4-5 weeks after the spike in cases. So they might be looking at 4-5 week old cases and seeing 5% of those people being hospitalised - or something similar to account for when you would expect to see cases turn into hospitalisations.

Tyrone212

The main symptoms of the Delta coronavirus variant are headache, sore throat and runny nose. That's the same as the common cold and different to the 'standard' Covid symptoms.

Loss of smell has fallen outside the top 10 of common symptoms .

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-57467051.amp

CIARAN_BOYLE

Hardyn wrote: »

In the last PHE report it showed 383 hospital admissions from 33,206 cases of Delta. That's just over 1% so definitely not accurate.

How many of the 33,000 are partially or fully vaccinated.

I believe that around a half or a third of the infections with delta are partially vaccinated.

Its also worth noting that there is usually a lag between infection, symptoms and hospitalisation. From experience earlier in the pandemic 80% of the 383 hospital admissions from delta would have been cases 2 weeks ago.

How many delta cases were there in England at that stage.

[Deleted User]

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

Yeah but the spike in hospitalisations have typically come 4-5 weeks after the spike in cases. So they might be looking at 4-5 week old cases and seeing 5% of those people being hospitalised - or something similar to account for when you would expect to see cases turn into hospitalisations.

Sorry I made a mess of that calculation so that number's not accurate. Looking into it a bit more 5% is probably high but not much.

landofthetree

https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1404484222358900737

El_Duderino 09

landofthetree wrote: »

https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1404484222358900737

If that's true its great news.

landofthetree

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

If that's true its great news.

https://twitter.com/PHE_uk/status/1404484812488990721

PTH2009

landofthetree wrote: »

https://twitter.com/PHE_uk/status/1404484812488990721

Very welcoming news

hmmm

Someone go tell RTE that the vaccines are highly effective (still).

wadacrack

landofthetree wrote: »

https://twitter.com/PHE_uk/status/1404484812488990721

Good news. Schools closing seem to have helped us here too it seems.

Vicxas

We just need to get the finger out and get as many vaccinated as possible before autumn when we all head back indoors.

In a welcome sight i seen my local MVC had a massive queue outside it waiting to go in. Hoping it was due to a large number of vaccines available and not incompetence

Jinglejangle69

landofthetree wrote: »

https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1404484222358900737

Like people here and anyone with sense said all along.

The media, especially RTE need to be called up on all this variant scaremongering.

Turtwig

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

If that's true its great news.

Chris Whitty just referenced it in his presentation.

[Deleted User]

So where does this leave those that have had the Jansen vaccine?

Polar101

hmmm wrote: »

Someone go tell RTE that the vaccines are highly effective (still).

Upcoming headline: "8 out of 100 chance of hospitalization"

:P

Anyway, that's reassuring to hear.

Micky 32

Got my text for my second dose on Thursday. Couldn’t come sooner:pac:

[Deleted User]

hmmm wrote: »

Someone go tell RTE that the vaccines are highly effective (still).

There's no news like bad news. A positive development like that will inevitably get buried. Baseless speculation about clogged hospitals is order of the day, in conjunction with advocating delay of reopening "just in case because you never know". As if indoor hospitality and the airline industry haven't been burnt enough already. Arra 'tis grand shure, the "I'm still on a full wage so let them eat cake" mentality prevails in Montrose.

[Deleted User]

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/covid-vaccine-hospitalisation-delta-variant-b1865685.html

Unvaccinated twice as likely to be hospitalised with Delta than Alpha.

Pfzier two doses 96% protection from hospitalisation from delta.

AZ two doses 92% protection from hospitalisation from delta.

AZ protection may rise as slower to reach optimal protection.