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The Delta variant

amandstu

How might this play out?

Apparently cases in England may be doubling every 4.5 days and resultant hospitalizations are said to be possibly between 2 and 3 times more likely that with the Alpha variant.

Only 1% prevalence here at the moment seemingly.

Back of envelope modeling in my sitting room is not reassuring and I am not near to getting my second AstraZeneca jab yet( so 30% protected against symptomatic disease?)

EDIT: Have been corrected in this thread that parts of England (not England as a whole) had cases doubling every 4.5 days

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Deeper Blue

Tyrone212 wrote: »

12 from 42. 29%. Hardly relatively small when it's almost a third.

The post you quoted clearly explains the situation, it's not rocket science. The 29% figure is extremely misleading.

[Deleted User]

Tyrone212 wrote: »

12 from 42. 29%. Hardly relatively small when it's almost a third.

The unvaccinated population consists primarily of those under the age of 30 for whom the risk of death is very low. The fully vaccinated population consists primarily of those over 50 and the vulnerable. Because of this the death rates in both groups are heavily skewed in opposite directions so comparisons between them are misleading.

As more younger and healthier people are fully vaccinated the death rate will come down.

Larbre34

bofster wrote: »

The official death rate from ALL causes was 6.4 persons per 1000 in 2020 !

This rate occurs 5 times in the last 10 years.

There is nothing to fear except fear itself!

And when you get an appendicitis or your mother has a heart attack and you can't access an acute hospital because there are 600 people in intensive care and another 5,000 hospitalised in University accommodation and in hotels because the unchecked virus has run rampant?

Go and educate yourself. The measures we all took were to insulate the healthcare system, to keep vital public services running by keeping their people healthy and protected.

It amazes me that there are still so many people who use deaths as a metric (!) and not lives saved, not society protected as much as possible, not enabling other acute medical care to carry on, albeit with some curtailment.

Some people are whinging about the measures pr precisely because it didn't kill them, precisely because the island didn't end up like Brazil or India or Italy.

Quite bizarre.

Dempo1

So I dared discuss the possibility or need for boosters, of course got lambasted for what was a perfectly reasonable suggestion given it was actually mooted by medical experts.

This morning an interesting Article in the Indo about the very topic.

https://m.independent.ie/world-news/coronavirus/booster-vaccines-to-be-offered-inwinter-to-head-off-risk-of-covid-19-variant-surge-40534662.html

Dempo1

Larbre34 wrote: »

And when you get an appendicitis or your mother has a heart attack and you can't access an acute hospital because there are 600 people in intensive care and another 5,000 hospitalised in University accommodation and in hotels because the unchecked virus has run rampant?

Go and educate yourself. The measures we all took were to insulate the healthcare system, to keep vital public services running by keeping their people healthy and protected.

It amazes me that there are still so many people who use deaths as a metric (!) and not lives saved, not society protected as much as possible, not enabling other acute medical care to carry on, albeit with some curtailment.

Some people are whinging about the measures pr precisely because it didn't kill them, precisely because the island didn't end up like Brazil or India or Italy.

Quite bizarre.

Very well put and too add, the Hospital system at present remains crippled due to the cyber attack, its in absolutely no position to deal with a new surge. Standard and daily functions such as MRI, Xrays, even bloods are seriously impacted 4 weeks into this attack. Its an enormous relief hospitalisations for covid drastically reduced.

robinph

normanoffside wrote: »

With, not from.
In the UK a covid death is anyone who dies within 28 days of a positive covid test, whatever the reason.
Most of the fully vaccinated are in the very old or vulnerable cohorts and it's not unusual for 12 of them to pass away.

Don't think that is accurate. The daily deaths data is where the "with, not from" line comes from, but there is no data along with that about what variant those deaths had.

The data from ONS which comes out weekly gives "from, not with" deaths and is likely the data dumps where the variant data is coming from (not that I've looked at those spreadsheets in months).

D.Q

Dempo1 wrote: »

So I dared discuss the possibility or need for boosters, of course got lambasted for what was a perfectly reasonable suggestion given it was actually mooted by medical experts.

This morning an interesting Article in the Indo about the very topic.

https://m.independent.ie/world-news/coronavirus/booster-vaccines-to-be-offered-inwinter-to-head-off-risk-of-covid-19-variant-surge-40534662.html

Needless to say I had the last laugh.

Dempo1

D.Q wrote: »

Needless to say I had the last laugh.

I hear you, just so infuriating when perfectly ligitimate questions asked, points raised only to be responded to with outlandish conspiracy theories about lockdowns, NPHET, the CMO etc, just extraordinary at times.

Micky 32

Dempo1 wrote: »

So I dared discuss the possibility or need for boosters, of course got lambasted for what was a perfectly reasonable suggestion given it was actually mooted by medical experts.

This morning an interesting Article in the Indo about the very topic.

https://m.independent.ie/world-news/coronavirus/booster-vaccines-to-be-offered-inwinter-to-head-off-risk-of-covid-19-variant-surge-40534662.html

Who lambasted you? Personally i think boosters are great to have. You can never have too many bullets in your armory.

Dempo1

Micky 32 wrote: »

Who lambasted you? Personally i think boosters are great to have. You can never have too many bullets in your armory.

This coming from someone accusing me of being fixated with lockdowns, Doom and gloom etc? You also questioned my ligitimate points about the possibility of Booster requirements if I recall.

I've an excellent recepie for Humble Pie, I'm glad to share, it's best served cold however

Micky 32

Dempo1 wrote: »

This coming from someone accusing me of being fixated with lockdowns, Doom and gloom etc? You also questioned my ligitimate points about the possibility of Booster requirements if I recall.

I've an excellent recepie for Humble Pie, I'm glad to share, it's best served cold however

What’s that got to do with my opinion on boosters? Will you kindly get over yourself. Show me my posts where i “lambasted” you about boosters? If i ever did talk about boosters all i would have said is that there’s no guarantee we actually need one yet for sure and that was only an opinion , am i allowed to have one or question it? . I have nothing against boosters. I’d prefer to have them.

You seem to be more fixated and whining about hospital surges etc. You seem to be stuck in 2020. But lets not get too neurotic. Lets not forget that the most cohort that were clogging hospitals are now vaccinated. You’re hardly suggesting the vaccines aren’t working are you? They do work. The evidence is out there.

I’ll ask again because you never gave a direct answer the last time. Should we keep lockdowns/restrictions indefinately just incase a new variant or the vaccines won’t work well enough for you or are you happy enough to fully open society in the coming months as we all get jabbed?

You certainly don’t seem too happy despite it being the beginning of the end of this.

Dempo1

Micky 32 wrote: »

What’s that got to do with my opinion on boosters? Will you kindly get over yourself. Show me my posts where i lambasted you about boosters? If i ever did talk about boosters all i would have said is that there’s no guarantee we actually need one yet for sure and that was only an opinion , am i allowed to have one or question it? . I have nothing against boosters. I’d prefer to have them.

You seem to be more fixated and whining about hospital surges etc. You seem to be stuck in 2020. But lets not get too neurotic. Lets not forget that the most cohort that were clogging hospitals are now vaccinated. You’re hardly suggesting the vaccines aren’t working are you? They do work. The evidence is out there.

I’ll ask again because you never gave a direct answer the last time. Should we keep lockdowns/restrictions indefinately just incase a new variant or the vaccines won’t work well enough for you or are you happy enough to fully open society in the coming months as we all get jabbed?

You see, predictable response, vitriol, dillusional, opinionated, clewrly ill informed and a mind set clearly focused on criticising those who's opinions differ from yours.

I'm not sure how many times I need to remind you I've not mentioned lock downs once, caution whilst opening up society has and continues to be my point.

Perhaps you resent being wrong, understandable, it can be tough. But the measure of anyone is how they react to it, and your reactions quite telling and I've certainly no need to get over myself as you put it, perhaps a look closer to home advisable. My offer re humble pie still stands....

Micky 32

Dempo1 wrote: »

You see, predictable response, vitriol, dillusional, opinionated, clewrly ill informed and a mind set clearly focused on criticising those who's opinions differ from yours.

.

Lol absolute rubbish, that’s exactly how i’d describe your response. Yes we know we have to be cautious and my opinion was always of the last quarter opening up society but you still didn’t answer the question. Are you of the opinion vaccines aren’t good enough and we keep restrictions going forward or in the months to come do we open up society when everyone gets a jab that wants one?

Humble pie? That’s delusional for a start. What am i wrong about that i’m supposed to be resenting? Am i wrong that i think the vaccines are working?

Boggles

If it wasn't for the Delta variant, the government would in all likelihood be announcing the go-ahead for a full unlock.

But a more infectious variant against which one shot of the vaccine works less well has created a problem.

That much can be seen from how quickly infection levels are rising. The trajectory we are on means we could see January levels of infection by the end of July.

Exactly what that means for hospital admissions is less clear. It is already obvious that while the vaccines have weakened the link between cases and serious illness they have not broken it completely - admissions are rising after all.

Early data suggests less than 5% of cases are ending up in hospital - half the rate seen previously.

But that still has the potential to cause 2,000 admissions a day if we did reach January levels of infection - twice what the NHS would see for all respiratory illnesses in a bad winter.

None of that is guaranteed, of course, and so a delay, government scientists are arguing, gives them more time to work out with confidence where we are heading - and it is even possible the immunity built up by the vaccines will have started to halt the growth by then.

Extremely valuable data on vaccine effectiveness in the next 2-4 weeks.

astrofool

Dempo1 wrote: »

So I dared discuss the possibility or need for boosters, of course got lambasted for what was a perfectly reasonable suggestion given it was actually mooted by medical experts.

This morning an interesting Article in the Indo about the very topic.

https://m.independent.ie/world-news/coronavirus/booster-vaccines-to-be-offered-inwinter-to-head-off-risk-of-covid-19-variant-surge-40534662.html

I think it's been clear for a while that boosters will get rolled into the annual flu vaccine rollout (maybe not this year, but probably for 2022), will be interesting to see if our initial rollout is done before that comes around. Also whether it's really required or just precautionary. Every single country is planning as if boosters will be needed but don't expect them to be a necessity. I'm really hoping they use the same vaccine technology and apply it to the flu as well but unsure whether they'll have that turned around in time.

I also wouldn't hold up the independent as validation, there has been a decent number of these articles, this is a much better article describing what might happen and importantly, why it might happen:
https://www.sciencenews.org/article/coronavirus-covid-vaccine-booster-shot-variant-immunity

[Deleted User]

Larbre34 wrote: »

And when you get an appendicitis or your mother has a heart attack and you can't access an acute hospital because there are 600 people in intensive care and another 5,000 hospitalised in University accommodation and in hotels because the unchecked virus has run rampant?

Go and educate yourself. The measures we all took were to insulate the healthcare system, to keep vital public services running by keeping their people healthy and protected.

It amazes me that there are still so many people who use deaths as a metric (!) and not lives saved, not society protected as much as possible, not enabling other acute medical care to carry on, albeit with some curtailment.

Some people are whinging about the measures pr precisely because it didn't kill them, precisely because the island didn't end up like Brazil or India or Italy.

Quite bizarre.

When was there 600 in ICU or overwhelmed hospitals? I don't believe that has happened. When were people with appendicitis or heart issues not receiving treatment? Our hospitals were never overwhelmed, granted they were very busy in January during peak respiratory illness season due to Covid spreading a lot in said hospitals.

Meanwhile, headlines continue to roll in of businesses that have been forced to shut down permanently due to months and months of severe lockdown.

How many might have survived had they being given a chance to breath while hospital numbers were tiny?

FintanMcluskey

Larbre34 wrote: »

Some people are whinging about the measures pr precisely because it didn't kill them, precisely because the island didn't end up like Brazil or India or Italy.

Quite bizarre.

Your talking about Ireland ending up like Brazil or India, or a region in Italy with 10 million citizens in an area the size of Munster with an incredibly old age profile while pleading with posters to educate themselves

Talk about irony

There is 2 sides of the debate, those who support lockdown vs those who understand maths

PatrickDoherty

Just seen Las Vegas is opened fully now, covid is history it seems in America.. does the Delta variant not exist over there?

Micky 32

PatrickDoherty wrote: »

Just seen Las Vegas is opened fully now, covid is history it seems in America.. does the Delta variant not exist over there?

The Delta variant has been there a while. They only had 5000 cases yesterday out of circa 350m people., think that’s the lowest i have seen it since the whole thing began!

[Deleted User]

PatrickDoherty wrote: »

Just seen Las Vegas is opened fully now, covid is history it seems in America.. does the Delta variant not exist over there?

They're just getting on with things. As we all will have to at some stage.

wadacrack

Deeper Blue wrote: »

Thanks for the tip but I'll continue to question sweeping statements with seemingly little scientific basis.

Here you go. Its worrying many medical professionals even in the US now.

https://twitter.com/saletan/status/1404259986046398467

dominatinMC

PatrickDoherty wrote: »

Just seen Las Vegas is opened fully now, covid is history it seems in America.. does the Delta variant not exist over there?

Ya, I've watched a few NHL games recently and they are full capacity, indoors (remember that!) no distancing, no masks. I know some rules are different from state to state, but most places seem be almost back to normal now. Some going

Micky 32

wadacrack wrote: »

Here you go. Its worrying many medical professionals even in the US now.

https://twitter.com/saletan/status/1404259986046398467

Wadacrack do you get a fix out of doom and gloom? It’s your constant narrative.

Vaccines work, normality will be achievable in the coming months. Your tweet is of “ what if”. Cases are plummeting in the USA , they only had 5000 yesterday despite 10% indian cases.

As it says in the article you posted it doesn’t mean there will be a sharp uptick in cases.

Deeper Blue

wadacrack wrote: »

Here you go. Its worrying many medical professionals even in the US now.

https://twitter.com/saletan/status/1404259986046398467

Yawn. That's one person and if you read the article he's not even that worried.

wadacrack

Micky 32 wrote: »

Wadacrack do you get a fix out of doom and gloom? It’s your constant narrative.

Vaccines work, normality will be achievable in the coming months. Your tweet is of “ what if”. Cases are plummeting in the USA , they only had 5000 yesterday despite 10% indian cases.

As it says in the article you posted it doesn’t mean there will be a sharp uptick in cases.

No its not, I have been positive about the situation here.

Deeper Blue

Dempo1 wrote: »

Perhaps you resent being wrong, understandable, it can be tough. But the measure of anyone is how they react to it, and your reactions quite telling and I've certainly no need to get over myself as you put it, perhaps a look closer to home advisable. My offer re humble pie still stands....

Jesus Christ. Why are people on this forum so obsessed with dredging up old posts to prove how right they were?

Seriously it's embarrassing

Grow up

Tenger

bofster wrote: »

The official death rate from ALL causes was 6.4 persons per 1000 in 2020 !

This rate occurs 5 times in the last 10 years.

There is nothing to fear except fear itself!

The potential of Covid-19 to cause death and overwhelm health services is the danger here. Those against restrictions can’t seem to grasp that

wadacrack

Deeper Blue wrote: »

Yawn. That's one person and if you read the article he's not even that worried.

Worry? Don't see how thats relevant to what you stated. I thought you wanted scientific commentary on the variants. Their you have it.

We are doing well here at present hopefully stays like that. Caution does not equal worry

Dempo1

Deeper Blue wrote: »

Jesus Christ. Why are people on this forum so obsessed with dredging up old posts to prove how right they were?

Seriously it's embarrassing

Grow up

Old posts? 2 day old posts? How about you grow up, check facts before adding further nonsense to the discussion, besides my response was nothing to do with anything you posted, it was in response to ludicrous comments made earlier, questioning my motives but more importantly facts. I'm not aware this thread is to do with attention seeking, stick to the topic in hand unless that's beyond you.

Turtwig

[Deleted User] wrote: »

They're just getting on with things. As we all will have to at some stage.

We will have to. However is our goal to have covid endemic to malaria like levels in a third world country? Or something like have covid endemic to our domestic measles and mumps levels where there are outbreaks but the disease is largely controlled and shielded from the public at large?

Id prefer something along the latter. Vaccination will also us achieve that. Provided we don't let things go nuts until we have enough vaccinated.
People stating we have to learn to live with covid don't actually live with any disease in that sense and I really don't feel they understand just what living long term with a high level of endemic covid would mean.

We have vaccines that can avoid that. No point in coming this far to regress.