The Delta variant

Deleted User wrote: »

Until the weather breaks, then the "outdoor" farce is exposed for the fallacy it is.

In an ideal world, those power brokers advocating for a delay in reopening to indoor hospitality would take a pay cut in solidarity. And then I woke up. "I don't give a solitary damn about the plight of others provided I don't lose a single cent in my salary." We have been here before, the entitled and secure luxuriating in dictating the fortunes of those less so.

Hospitality Owners (in the 1,000's) probably affected badly , but hospitality workers are in the 100's of 1,000's and are maybe not as affected financially in a lot of cases.

Wouldnt be the most lucrative employment industry in ireland as many are paid minimum wage by hospitality owners. €350 pw for staying at home is not the worst situation for some of those workers. I wish things in reality were as black and white as in your head.

CIARAN_BOYLE

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

Should they not contact NPHET?

Or is Tony the main man

Tony is the Chair of NPHET.

The media have used Tony and NPHET interchangeably since the start of the pandemic.

gozunda wrote: »

No I think that was some speculation as to a herd immunity which doesn't seem to have held up to scrutiny.

Put it another way. Prior to the recent outbreak the countries hospitals were not overrun as part of national emergency, there was no large-scale shortages of oxygen and incineration of the dead wasn't running at or over capacity.

That said- It has been suggested that the case and death figures for the most recent outbreak are still being tallied.

The notion that India reached herd immunity in 2020 was nonsense. That goes without saying. That said however an estimate of 50% infected is probably accurate. They did endure a significant spread of disease. The effect on hospitals and deaths was likely mitigated by their overall young population.

The reason the second wave was so devastating was that they were completely unprepared for it. The government grossly overestimated the protection offered by prior infections in the population. On top of that they encouraged massive gatherings that became superspreader events and spent more time trying to suppress news of the surge and downplay it than act on it.

Dempo1

Micky 32 wrote: »

No but there’s a constant unhealthy fixation and obsession of doom by you and another poster about the Delta variant and other variants ( that don’t even exist yet) what “ if this “ “ if that” . There’s no evidence of any variant that will come along and keep us locked up ‘foreva’. ( btw i have been in my last lockdown)

Many experts believe if the virus mutated much to evade vaccines it could lose most of it’s functionality. It doesn’t have too many cards up it’s sleeve going forward.

However you might like this bit of news, should keep you going . It seems the government in the UK are shifting the goalposts again. It’s long covid now.

“”It's not just about the number of hospitalisations, but also the risk to the health of large numbers of younger people, who can suffer long-term symptoms affecting their lives and ability to work."“

Oh it appears being fully jabbed is at least 95% reduction in hospitalisation against the Indian variant. It’s doing ( and will continue) to do it’s job. Over the next few months normality will begin returning. Even international travel is returning soon.

In yours and 2 others opinion, I can live with that, I'm no Doom merchant albeit I'll remain cautious and objective. And no it does not please me the UK government intend moving goalposts as you put it, but it does please me to see a cautious and sensible approach again not at all unreasonable in my humble opinion.

Feria40

PTH2009 wrote: »

https://www.rte.ie/news/2021/0612/1227733-covid-19-ireland-vaccines/

'There has been contact at ministerial level today between the Irish and British governments following the rising number of cases of the more infectious Delta variant in the UK.

The case numbers are being closely watched by the Government and senior sources have indicated that small changes to the current travel restrictions between UK and here could be considered.

Currently, people arriving here from Britain have to quarantine at home but they can exit that after five days if they get a second negative PCR test.

However, that five-day period could be possibly extended by several days - but no decisions have yet been taken on the matter.

Ministers are now likely to consult Chief Medical Officer Dr Tony Holohan on the issue.'

What is the point of extending an isolation period that isn't being adhered to as is.

Tenger

SusanC10 wrote: »

I don't believe that children are low risk for transmission. Serious illness, yes but not transmission.

Any data to back up your “belief”? Or is it just non medical opinion?

Tenger wrote: »

Any data to back up your “belief”? Or is it just non medical opinion?

https://abc7news.com/delta-variant-covid-strain-uk-india-covid-19/10765977/

Fauci thinks so.

Supercell

I wonder if the Indian situation is similar to that of Manus in Brazil? Manus was believed to have gotten herd immunity but then suffered a second wave just as brutal because it was another varient which immunity from the first didnt transfer. Possibly India is now going though something similar?

Supercell wrote: »

I wonder if the Indian situation is similar to that of Manus in Brazil? Manus was believed to have gotten herd immunity but then suffered a second wave just as brutal because it was another varient which immunity from the first didnt transfer. Possibly India is now going though something similar?

Neither Manaus nor India ever achieved herd immunity.

Supercell wrote: »

I wonder if the Indian situation is similar to that of Manus in Brazil? Manus was believed to have gotten herd immunity but then suffered a second wave just as brutal because it was another varient which immunity from the first didnt transfer. Possibly India is now going though something similar?

Manaus never had herd immunity

xhomelezz

A bit of reading about Manaus.

https://www.thelancet.com/article/S0140-6736(21)00183-5/fulltext

xhomelezz wrote: »

A bit of reading about Manaus.

https://www.thelancet.com/article/S0140-6736(21)00183-5/fulltext

The herd immunity figure is massively flawed, people were signing up to donate blood in order to get a covid test rather than waiting ages for a swab test.

This was discussed 5/6 months ago, when that article came out.

xhomelezz

Deeper Blue wrote: »

The herd immunity figure is massively flawed, people were signing up to donate blood in order to get a covid test rather than waiting ages for a swab test.

This was discussed 5/6 months ago, when that article came out.

To be honest, I read it very quickly. Don't think article is somehow saying that Manaus achieved herd immunity. I'll give it another go later.

Woody79 wrote: »

How much harm in UK though for significant third wave?

A few helpful factors in UK at present:

1. Its currently mid June (its a seasonal virus).
2. All over 50's and vulnerable groups in UK fully vaxed.
3. Anyone over 30 has one dose in them (anyone over 18 in NI can get vaccine now).

At this stage in the pandemic its about harm reduction, not elimination.

Out of abundance of caution delay any more openings in UK until cases fall and R returns below 1.

This could be weeks or months. Time will tell on that one.

Our goal in ireland is to keep jabbing away.

In all likliehood delta variant will become dominant in ireland.

Time is our enemy at the moment.

Hopefully we will have all over 40s double vaxed and many in their 30's with one dose before it takes over in the weeks or months from now.

Indoor pubs etc. should be delayed until everyone is fully vaccinated (Tony will have no problem advocating this).

Great weather currently for outdoor socialising anyhow.

They are not sure, but it could well be worse than many expect. They have said in terms of mortality unlikely to be as bad as the 2nd wave. Theirs a large degree of uncertainty atm.

The virus is having abi of of impact on The Euro's, few players now out. Olympics could be problematic

New York doing well, theirs a big discrepancy worldwide with how City's countries are performing. New York have in general been more cautious than other US states/cities

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1404113767647096832

nocoverart

Jaysus wadacrack, you’re like a Kermit 2.0 at this stage with all the links and info nobody asked for, thanks.

wadacrack wrote: »

They are not sure, but it could well be worse than many expect.

In your opinion or is there some actual scientific basis behind this?

Deeper Blue wrote: »

In your opinion or is there some actual scientific basis behind this?

Scientific, please stop asking me this after every post.

hmmm

Woody79 wrote: »

Indoor pubs etc. should be delayed until everyone is fully vaccinated (Tony will have no problem advocating this).

Great weather currently for outdoor socialising anyhow.

This now unfortunately looks inevitable in my opinion (widespread vaccination, but not "everyone"). The situation is beginning to look a little like December of last year (although without the Christmas dinner mass-spreading events). Most of the 40+ group will be fully vaccinated, and some of the 30s will have a first jab by the time this variant arrives with a vengeance, but it would be unfair for the older generations to simply go on a binge while younger people are still at risk.

Thankfully a lot of places have gone full throttle for outdoor dining and drinking.

Anyone moaning about the weather needs to pull on a raincoat, this is only for a couple of weeks during a pandemic and you will survive the hardship.

Bicyclette

Just reading some stats now. 42 people have died in the UK from the Delta (Indian) Variant, 12 of whom were fully vaccinated. It has a 64% higher risk of transmission indoors than the Alpha (Kent) variant and 40% higher risk of outdoor transmission than the Alpha (Kent) variant.

niallo27

hmmm wrote: »

This now unfortunately looks inevitable in my opinion (widespread vaccination, but not "everyone"). The situation is beginning to look a little like December of last year (although without the Christmas dinner mass-spreading events). Most of the 40+ group will be fully vaccinated, and some of the 30s will have a first jab by the time this variant arrives with a vengeance, but it would be unfair for the older generations to simply go on a binge while younger people are still at risk.

Thankfully a lot of places have gone full throttle for outdoor dining and drinking.

Anyone moaning about the weather needs to pull on a raincoat, this is only for a couple of weeks during a pandemic and you will survive the hardship.

When you say a couple of weeks, do you mean from now or July or from August. Also what about restaurants, do you expect people to eat their food in the rain.

niallo27

Bicyclette wrote: »

Just reading some stats now. 42 people have died in the UK from the Delta (Indian) Variant, 12 of whom were fully vaccinated. It has a 64% higher risk of transmission indoors than the Alpha (Kent) variant and 40% higher risk of outdoor transmission than the Alpha (Kent) variant.

Only 42, incredibly low numbers. That's really good news.

normanoffside

Bicyclette wrote: »

Just reading some stats now. 42 people have died in the UK from the Delta (Indian) Variant, 12 of whom were fully vaccinated. It has a 64% higher risk of transmission indoors than the Alpha (Kent) variant and 40% higher risk of outdoor transmission than the Alpha (Kent) variant.

With, not from.
In the UK a covid death is anyone who dies within 28 days of a positive covid test, whatever the reason.
Most of the fully vaccinated are in the very old or vulnerable cohorts and it's not unusual for 12 of them to pass away.

wadacrack wrote: »

Scientific, please stop asking me this after every post.

Thanks for the tip but I'll continue to question sweeping statements with seemingly little scientific basis.