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Child Item

The Delta variant

amandstu

How might this play out?

Apparently cases in England may be doubling every 4.5 days and resultant hospitalizations are said to be possibly between 2 and 3 times more likely that with the Alpha variant.

Only 1% prevalence here at the moment seemingly.

Back of envelope modeling in my sitting room is not reassuring and I am not near to getting my second AstraZeneca jab yet( so 30% protected against symptomatic disease?)

EDIT: Have been corrected in this thread that parts of England (not England as a whole) had cases doubling every 4.5 days

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BorneTobyWilde

When UK go full steam ahead, no restrictions thousands of people will get covid, but why bother reporting it

I can see the headlines already

.'' 400,542 new case in UK''

Not one of them know they have it

[Deleted User]

gozunda wrote: »

True but doesn't really answer why India didn't experience significant rates of infection in 2020.

They did. I've seem some estimates that say 50% of their population may have been infected in 2020.

[Deleted User]

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

When new cases are announced daily do they tell you if those new cases are from vaccinated people?

I mean lets say '' 547 new cases '' today, but all 547 cases are from vaccinated people who don't know they have it and never would know without a test. I just don't get why they keep making a big deal out of cases, same in UK, 8000 positive cases yesterday, but all 8000 are vaccinated and living it up down the pub.
Who gives a fck.
Vaccine does not stop you getting covid, but it stops you knowing you ever had it, as it has no effect once vaccinated, so why keep making a big deal out of cases.

Being saying this myself for month's. But the powers that are in charge simply won't let go of control. Stephen Donnelly, the minister of health in this country has more power at the moment because of emergency legislation powers than any other person in history.

Tenger

landofthetree wrote: »

22% of the population are age 14 or under.

You cant have herd immunity when the 22% who havent got the vaccine are mixing all the time?

Data shows that kids are less likely to be carriers.
The vaccine will be rolled out to 12+ group by September anyway. (already done in the USA)

Getting 80% of adults done (or at least 1 dose) by end of July will have a significant impact.

tommybrees wrote: »

......... the minister of health in this country has more power at the moment because of emergency legislation powers than any other person in history.

More than the English King or the Lord-Lieutenant of Ireland?
Or are we counting Global history?
Chinese emeperors? Kublai Khan?
The Czars? Queen Victoria? Etc etc

SusanC10

Tenger wrote: »

The vaccine will be rolled out to 12+ group by September anyway. (already done in the USA)

I really hope you are right on this. I just find it odd that despite EMA approval for 12+ that there is little to no mention by the powers that be of this age group getting vaccinated.

[Deleted User]

Tenger wrote: »

Data shows that kids are less likely to be carriers.
The vaccine will be rolled out to 12+ group by September anyway. (already done in the USA)

Getting 80% of adults done (or at least 1 dose) by end of July will have a significant impact.

More than the English King or the Lord-Lieutenant of Ireland?
Or are we counting Global history?
Chinese emeperors? Kublai Khan?
The Czars? Quenn Victoria? Etc etc

Modern history, happy now?

FintanMcluskey

Micky 32 wrote: »

Vaccines work. This will end at least in the sense that you’ll get to enjoy the things you once enjoyed doing before all this happened.

You say that with a confidence previously seen when people proclaimed last Summer that normality would return when the vulnerable were vaccinated

We are now further from normality than we were last Summer with no vaccines

Micky 32

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

You say that with a confidence previously seen when people proclaimed last Summer that normality would return when the vulnerable were vaccinated

We are now further from normality than we were last Summer with no vaccines

For the record i never claimed normality would return this summer or do i care what other people have said. I always said ( when vaccines were announced) it would be the autumn ( last quarter) of 2021 before normality takes a hold again. I’m still confident of that.

Look on the bright side. You might be able to travel next month.

LuckyLloyd

Micky 32 wrote: »

I do love the comparisons of March 2020 and December. A lot has changed since then. A lot of people have had vaccinations since. Or did you forget about the vaccinations? Especially the most vulnerable and old.

Yes the landscape of protection has changed given vaccination. However the nature of transmissibility and potentially virulence has also changed.

I think you’re arguing against things people aren’t saying. Nothing is nailed on and nobody is claiming it is. But it’s pointless dismissing the potential for a deterioration in metrics that slows reopening / reimposes some restrictions. It’s as silly to outright dismiss this variant as it is to outright claim we will be back in lockdown.

Melanchthon

crooked cockney villain wrote: »

I'm confused as to how it is now 25% of cases in the North but only circa 1% of cases here. I can't imagine they have significantly more travel to mainland UK than we do, in fact as Protestants were less likely to emigrate there would be less family ties on the mainland and thus surely per capita less travel there.
.

Does anybody have the figures for the percentage of positive tests that are sequenced in the Republic compared to the North.
The UK is a world leader in terms of the amount they sequence (think at one stage UK was sequencing more than the rest of Europe combined) and I know Micheal Martin lied about the North not sequencing before.

Tldr: how do we know more of the positive tests here aren't this variant.

Tenger

SusanC10 wrote: »

I really hope you are right on this. I just find it odd that despite EMA approval for 12+ that there is little to no mention by the powers that be of this age group getting vaccinated.

Maybe that's because the Irish vaccination program is running on an age basis?
The 40-45 group have just been allowed to register. Might take a while to get to the under 18s.

Melanchthon wrote: »

.......
Tldr: how do we know more of the positive tests here aren't this variant.

It's purely anecdotal but I read somewhere about a week ago that only 30% of our positive cases are sequenced for variants.
Large pinch of salt with that info though.

CIARAN_BOYLE

Tenger wrote: »

It's purely anecdotal but I read somewhere about a week ago that only 30% of our positive cases are sequenced for variants.
Large pinch of salt with that info though.

30% is a lot considering how few were sequenced for variants at previous stages (say last November/December I believe they sequenced about 100 a week).

SusanC10

Doctor Jimbob wrote: »

I find the idea that we need a significant proportion of under 18s fully vaccinated for herd immunity disturbing considering that when schools were being reopened we were told that children were low risk for transmission and serious illness.

I don't believe that children are low risk for transmission. Serious illness, yes but not transmission.

Micky 32

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

Yes the landscape of protection has changed given vaccination. However the nature of transmissibility and potentially virulence has also changed.

I think you’re arguing against things people aren’t saying. Nothing is nailed on and nobody is claiming it is. But it’s pointless dismissing the potential for a deterioration in metrics that slows reopening / reimposes some restrictions. It’s as silly to outright dismiss this variant as it is to outright claim we will be back in lockdown.

Oh give over. No one is dismissing the variants and i have said we need to be cautious . . I was pointing out there is a difference comparing December and March 2020 using that as a metric for the doomsday predictions on here.. i have never argued with anyone that we should open up and let it rip tomorrow.

I have always said it would be autumn before normality resumes and i’m standing by it.
The narrative on here is if you read between the lines is the vaccines aren’t great back in lockdown by winter.

The facts clearly paint me a different picture. Sleeves are being rolled up by the thousands every day .

Tiredandcranky

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/984533/S1229_Warwick_Road_Map_Scenarios_and_Sensitivity_Steps_3_and_4.pdf

Not sure has anyone posted this.
As far as I know, this is the latest modelling assessment by epidemiologists in the UK. There was also a doc published in the last few days which outlined available evidence on the delta variant... wasn’t good news I think.. there’s an increased risk of hospitalisation with it, and it is more transmissible than the Kent variant.

fun loving criminal

Doctor Jimbob wrote: »

I find the idea that we need a significant proportion of under 18s fully vaccinated for herd immunity disturbing considering that when schools were being reopened we were told that children were low risk for transmission and serious illness.

Ok to open schools and all the mixing without masks, but it's now different advice regarding vaccinations. Very disturbing indeed.

LuckyLloyd

Micky 32 wrote: »

Oh give over. No one is dismissing the variants and i have said we need to be cautious . . I was pointing out there is a difference comparing December and March 2020 using that as a metric for the doomsday predictions on here.. i have never argued with anyone that we should open up and let it rip tomorrow.

I have always said it would be autumn before normality resumes and i’m standing by it.
The narrative on here is if you read between the lines is the vaccines aren’t great back in lockdown by winter.

The facts clearly paint me a different picture. Sleeves are being rolled up by the thousands every day .

Again, your “reading between the lines” is leaping to a mad conclusion not actually in writing from posters, or the vast majority anyway. Which makes further conversation pointless!

Micky 32

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

Again, your “reading between the lines” is leaping to a mad conclusion not actually in writing from posters, or the vast majority anyway. Which makes further conversation pointless!

Lol, maybe take a look at a couple of posts from the boards experts that were made on the main thread today :pac:

Yes you are right that this conversation is pointless because you’re insinuating i just want to open all up because we have nearly half the population vaxxed. Wrong. My debate is about the future in the months to come.

El_Duderino 09

tom1ie wrote: »

With the elderly and vulnerable vaccinated, will it matter if cases start increasing like in the UK?
The higher case numbers won't translate into hospital cases as the people most at risk are vaccinated.
Plus we will be continuing the rollout of the vaccine program.
Or am I missing something here?

Yeah we don't know the answer to that yet.

It's very likely that we can tolerate higher transmission numbers because serious illness/hospitalisation per transmission is greatly reduced by the people who have been vaccinated. The first wave peaked around 1000 cases a day and that caused full lockdown. But now we're running 400 cases a day and reopening with only about 25 ICU beds occupied.

Just need to wait and see how it works out. In the past it's has taken about 4-5 weeks from case increase to increased hospitalisation. I'd say they'll wait and see if that happens or not. If it doesn't happen then, great.

ShineOn7

fun loving criminal wrote: »

I wonder did things look bad in India because India has a high rate of vitamin D deficiency? A quick Google shows that 70-90% of Indians are deficient in the vitamin.

That and poor nutrition, poverty in general and what are probably the most dense "everyone on top of each other" living conditions in the world

It was a ticking time bomb

phormium

ShineOn7 wrote: »

That and poor nutrition, poverty in general and what are probably the most dense "everyone on top of each other" living conditions in the world

It was a ticking time bomb

Actually I watched a programme in the middle of the night last weekend when I couldn't sleep that was reporting on Covid in India, the bulk of the cases were from the slightly better off areas of society, the slums/shanty towns where they are practically on top of each other remained relatively clear of it.

Conclusion was that they had a much better immune system in those overcrowded areas due to the living conditions and while there were cases of Covid very little serious illness with it.

FintanMcluskey

phormium wrote: »

Actually I watched a programme in the middle of the night last weekend when I couldn't sleep that was reporting on Covid in India, the bulk of the cases were from the slightly better off areas of society, the slums/shanty towns where they are practically on top of each other remained relatively clear of it.

Conclusion was that they had a much better immune system in those overcrowded areas due to the living conditions and while there were cases of Covid very little serious illness with it.

Covid primarily targets older people and obese people

Both are more common in affluent areas

tom1ie

Turtwig wrote: »

Population medically vulnerable to covid <<< population at lowest risk to covid.

Even at very low risk the large size of the population pool is enough for there to be significant hospitalisations.

How can there be significant hospitalisations when elderly, vulnerable and people at low risk (can this be defined? What age group?) have been double dosed?

Are we saying that even vaccinated people could be at risk of hospitalisations? Surely not.

Kermit.de.frog

The UK is a classic example of politicians wrecklessly building up expectations for the public that appear unachievable and will only set society back in dealing with coronavirus.

They are trying to condense a long term containment operation in to weeks and months for the consumption of the populace and this is misleading the public who then go on to take risks they shouldn't be taking.

At the end of the day vaccines or no vaccines, emerging trends in infections, hospitalisations and deaths will dictate policy.

Micky 32

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

At the end of the day vaccines or no vaccines, emerging trends in infections, hospitalisations and deaths will dictate policy.

…..and thankfully the vaccines will prevent the above to a point where we can begin to live normally again in the coming months.

[Deleted User]

wadacrack wrote: »

Sinovac is still pretty effective, 67% or so. I did mention that vaccines will mitigate the risk too. This variant will transmit too quickly in the Uk to prevent a significant third wave. The scale of infection will be too high in spite of vaccination.

How much harm in UK though for significant third wave?

A few helpful factors in UK at present:

1. Its currently mid June (its a seasonal virus).
2. All over 50's and vulnerable groups in UK fully vaxed.
3. Anyone over 30 has one dose in them (anyone over 18 in NI can get vaccine now).

At this stage in the pandemic its about harm reduction, not elimination.

Out of abundance of caution delay any more openings in UK until cases fall and R returns below 1.

This could be weeks or months. Time will tell on that one.

Our goal in ireland is to keep jabbing away.

In all likliehood delta variant will become dominant in ireland.

Time is our enemy at the moment.

Hopefully we will have all over 40s double vaxed and many in their 30's with one dose before it takes over in the weeks or months from now.

Indoor pubs etc. should be delayed until everyone is fully vaccinated (Tony will have no problem advocating this).

Great weather currently for outdoor socialising anyhow.

gozunda

Hardyn wrote: »

They did. I've seem some estimates that say 50% of their population may have been infected in 2020.

No I think that was some speculation as to a herd immunity which doesn't seem to have held up to scrutiny.

Put it another way. Prior to the recent outbreak the countries hospitals were not overrun as part of national emergency, there was no large-scale shortages of oxygen and incineration of the dead wasn't running at or over capacity.

That said- It has been suggested that the case and death figures for the most recent outbreak are still being tallied.

PTH2009

https://www.rte.ie/news/2021/0612/1227733-covid-19-ireland-vaccines/

'There has been contact at ministerial level today between the Irish and British governments following the rising number of cases of the more infectious Delta variant in the UK.

The case numbers are being closely watched by the Government and senior sources have indicated that small changes to the current travel restrictions between UK and here could be considered.

Currently, people arriving here from Britain have to quarantine at home but they can exit that after five days if they get a second negative PCR test.

However, that five-day period could be possibly extended by several days - but no decisions have yet been taken on the matter.

Ministers are now likely to consult Chief Medical Officer Dr Tony Holohan on the issue.'

FintanMcluskey

PTH2009 wrote: »

https://www.rte.ie/news/2021/0612/1227733-covid-19-ireland-vaccines/

'There has been contact at ministerial level today between the Irish and British governments following the rising number of cases of the more infectious Delta variant in the UK.

The case numbers are being closely watched by the Government and senior sources have indicated that small changes to the current travel restrictions between UK and here could be considered.

Currently, people arriving here from Britain have to quarantine at home but they can exit that after five days if they get a second negative PCR test.

However, that five-day period could be possibly extended by several days - but no decisions have yet been taken on the matter.

Ministers are now likely to consult Chief Medical Officer Dr Tony Holohan on the issue.'

Should they not contact NPHET?

Or is Tony the main man

[Deleted User]

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Indoor pubs etc. should be delayed until everyone is fully vaccinated (Tony will have no problem advocating this).

Great weather currently for outdoor socialising anyhow.

Until the weather breaks, then the "outdoor" farce is exposed for the fallacy it is.

In an ideal world, those power brokers advocating for a delay in reopening to indoor hospitality would take a pay cut in solidarity. And then I woke up. "I don't give a solitary damn about the plight of others provided I don't lose a single cent in my salary." We have been here before, the entitled and secure luxuriating in dictating the fortunes of those less so.