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The Delta variant

amandstu

How might this play out?

Apparently cases in England may be doubling every 4.5 days and resultant hospitalizations are said to be possibly between 2 and 3 times more likely that with the Alpha variant.

Only 1% prevalence here at the moment seemingly.

Back of envelope modeling in my sitting room is not reassuring and I am not near to getting my second AstraZeneca jab yet( so 30% protected against symptomatic disease?)

EDIT: Have been corrected in this thread that parts of England (not England as a whole) had cases doubling every 4.5 days

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[Deleted User]

gazzer wrote: »

According to this article on Sky News since7 June, there have been 42 deaths in England of people confirmed as having the Delta variant and who died within 28 days of testing positive.

23 of these people were unvaccinated, seven had had their first dose more than 21 days before and 12 had their second dose more than 14 days before.

So almost 30% of people who died in that period had received both their jabs. Is that not a high percentage or am I reading too much into it?

https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-delta-variant-about-60-more-transmissible-than-alpha-and-more-resistant-to-vaccines-phe-reports-12330068

You have to be careful making comparisons like that because of biases. The unvaccinated population consists of younger, healthier people for whom the risk of death is much lower. The fully vaccinated population on the other hand is overrepresented by the older and the vulnerable. So the death rates are skewed in both groups.

As time goes on and more young people become fully vaccinated the death rate in that population will get much lower.

Fils

Can’t believe the mhq didn’t keep the Indian out.

[Deleted User]

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Can we cease with this "same measures as March 2020" palaver, it's wholly dishonest. Over 3 million vaccines are now in arms, serving as the ultimate game changer. "Win our freedom back", we're not caged animals for the edification of Tony Holohan.

Let me clarify
Same personal hygiene measures
Which are,wash hands,keep your distance from people you don't know and wear your mask where suggested
Less of the condescension
By this time next month we will be circa 70% fully vaxxed
August closer to 80
Delta as I said will be lonely then
I wasn't on about more lockdown
Just don't let apathy on the personal measures let us down at the last hurdle
We soon won't need them

gozunda

TefalBrain wrote: »

I'm convinced there is a certain cohort on this site itching for this variant to shut things down again. I'd go as far as to guess some are even excited over it.

Are you?

Funny thing is you've posted the exact same rubbish already and n other threads. Reading them you'd swear there was only bad news or something.

TefalBrain wrote: »

People are bored with this now. The usual lockdown junkies are hoping this variant will give them their fix of doom but it won't.

You're "convinced" eh? "Certain cohort" "lockdown junkies". Looks like you're trawling looking to get a reaction at this stage.

Meanwhile in the real world

In a press interview Dr McCauley who is a spokesman for the Irish Medical Organisation said that "There were positives for people in the Republic in having over half the population with at least one vaccine dose and also having high levels of compliance with public health advice"

When asked whether the Delta variant would convert into significant illness here he said "We don’t know and don’t expect it will be like before,” he said, pointing to the high levels of vaccine protection for the older most vulnerable groups"

tom1ie

With the elderly and vulnerable vaccinated, will it matter if cases start increasing like in the UK?
The higher case numbers won't translate into hospital cases as the people most at risk are vaccinated.
Plus we will be continuing the rollout of the vaccine program.
Or am I missing something here?

Lumen

tom1ie wrote: »

With the elderly and vulnerable vaccinated, will it matter if cases start increasing like in the UK?
The higher case numbers won't translate into hospital cases as the people most at risk are vaccinated.
Plus we will be continuing the rollout of the vaccine program.
Or am I missing something here?

This is not at all certain. The cases in the UK are translating into increased hospital admissions, though not at the scale they were previously.

We are considerably behind the UK in our vaccination programme. We won't catch up to their current level for some time, although it's possible that our heavier reliance on mRNA vaccines will help.

Supercell

Looks like the higher cases ARE translating into higher hospital cases already, just because the numbers are small now doesnt mean they will continue that way, thats the nature of exponential.
Must say I'm amazed at some of the comments here, I want for all if this to end too, but come on, being "bored" or having a positive attitude isnt going to make this go away, it doesnt work like that.

https://twitter.com/codebluenews/status/1403250206942978048?s=20

astrofool

Fils wrote: »

Can’t believe the mhq didn’t keep the Indian out.

But it has pretty much? We can't control NI to Ireland, but keeping the new variant to a small % by using MHQ allows us to keep getting people vaccinated and avoid the problem.

Do you truly not see that? Or did you think that MHQ was meant to be 100% effective when we have open land and sea borders?

ZX7R wrote: »

This exactly, at the moment in uk ,if a person dies of cancer and is covid positive they are recorded as a covid death, but the NHS has been instructed to post deaths in hospital to reflect this ,I don't know when it's to start

Because of the debacle at the start where they undercounted COVID deaths, the UK has been very overt in making sure each COVID positive death is counted and included, these are numbers that drive decisions, people understand that some may have died of cancer and old age anyway, but the % of that will be quite low, it's good for the experts to have access to the data, bad for the public via daily clickbait headlines.

Tenger

screamer wrote: »

Unless we get a serious %age of the population here fully vaccinated, I think we're in for a rough time of it come October again. The delta (indian strain) is now the dominant strain in the UK.
Time will tell as always with this thing, but I'll not be getting rid of my sanitizer/ masks any time soon.

We already have a "serious %age of the population" fully vaccinated.
It's probably about 30% at this point. Currently 40-50 year olds are getting it. (large section of population)
Within 6 weeks our fully vaxxed number should be over 60%.

I get the worry about the Winter season. But October is a long way away

Tenger

Lumen wrote: »

............
We are considerably behind the UK in our vaccination programme. We won't catch up to their current level for some time....... .

I disagree. The UK sprinted ahead of Ireland and the EU 3 months ago. But since April the gap has been closing.

EG. My 57 year old sibling in Meath is getting their 2nd vaccine next week. My 54 year old sibling in the North got their 2nd this week.
The gap is still there, but it's far less than it was 8 weeks ago.

wadacrack

Supercell wrote: »

Looks like the higher cases ARE translating into higher hospital cases already, just because the numbers are small now doesnt mean they will continue that way, thats the nature of exponential.
Must say I'm amazed at some of the comments here, I want for all if this to end too, but come on, being "bored" or having a positive attitude isnt going to make this go away, it doesnt work like that.

https://twitter.com/codebluenews/status/1403250206942978048?s=20

Yea its very strange. I don't understand the need to post in the thread. Just a repeat yet again of the UK variant in December and March 2020. Denial and a just fail to look at the current situation in a rational manner. We are doing well but their is data that indicates we need to remain vigilant

SusanC10

I have niggling worries on this Delta Variant.

From what I have read we only have numbers here in Ireland up until May 20th and even then only around 30% of positive Cases here are profiled as particular variants (open to correction) so we don't have the true numbers.

Is it a case of a race between numbers of people vaccinated versus the Delta variant?
Does the Delta variant affect kids/teens in a worse way ?

We are a long way from having a majority of people even age 12+ vaccinated here.

Valhallapt

TefalBrain wrote: »

I'm convinced there is a certain cohort on this site itching for this variant to shut things down again. I'd go as far as to guess some are even excited over it.

A number of them suggest to continue with lockdown after the population has been vaccinated, just in case a new variant emerges... Stockholm syndrome..... (although you can’t visit family in Stockholm as that is non essential)

Micky 32

wadacrack wrote: »

Yea its very strange. I don't understand the need to post in the thread. Just a repeat yet again of the UK variant in December and March 2020. Denial and a just fail to look at the current situation in a rational manner. We are doing well but their is data that indicates we need to remain vigilant

I do love the comparisons of March 2020 and December. A lot has changed since then. A lot of people have had vaccinations since. Or did you forget about the vaccinations? Especially the most vulnerable and old.

Yes of course we have to be vigilant especially the un vaccinated. I for one are still cautious ( got my first shot of Pfizer 3 weeks ago) Yes cases are rising in the UK but i think they will rise and peak quite soon and then tail off with hospitalisations manageable thanks to the old/vulnerable being jabbed. This won’t be a December or a March 2020 . In the next couple months there will be a huge amount more people will have had their jab.

So what do you suggest? Permanent restrictions to stop “de variants” popping up?

gozunda

Valhallapt wrote: »

A number of them suggest to continue with lockdown after the population has been vaccinated, just in case a new variant emerges... Stockholm syndrome..... (although you can’t visit family in Stockholm as that is non essential)

Who?

[Deleted User]

So depressing reading this thread.
Seems like this crap is never going to end.

Micky 32

tommybrees wrote: »

So depressing reading this thread.
Seems like this crap is never going to end.

Vaccines work. This will end at least in the sense that you’ll get to enjoy the things you once enjoyed doing before all this happened.

Tenger

SusanC10 wrote: »

I have niggling worries on this Delta Variant.

From what I have read we only have numbers here in Ireland up until May 20th and even then only around 30% of positive Cases here are profiled as particular variants (open to correction) so we don't have the true numbers.

Is it a case of a race between numbers of people vaccinated versus the Delta variant?
Does the Delta variant affect kids/teens in a worse way ?

We are a long way from having a majority of people even age 12+ vaccinated here.

I have "niggling worries" but don't seem to have any actual data to base those worries upon.

landofthetree

TefalBrain wrote: »

Not worried in the slightest tbh. Vaccines kick it's ass and anyone who wants a vaccine by the winter will have one maybe even by mid September.

Looking forward to a return to normality

22% of the population are age 14 or under.

You cant have herd immunity when the 22% who havent got the vaccine are mixing all the time?

duffman13

tommybrees wrote: »

So depressing reading this thread.
Seems like this crap is never going to end.

We are predominantly using mRNA vaccines which is 88% effective after the second dose. That is brilliant to be honest

AZ efficacy is still 60% which is also excellent.

Both of those are against symptomatic illness nevermind the protection against severe disease and hospitalisation which will be higher. Its a variant of concern and rightly so but this fundamentally doesn't change our priority which needs to be vaccine rollout. By end of this month we will be close to 50% fully vaccinated.

The end is in sight to be honest. Winter boosters may be required and some distancing measures in winter might be needed if we get a huge flare up but I doubt it

fun loving criminal

I wonder did things look bad in India because India has a high rate of vitamin D deficiency? A quick Google shows that 70-90% of Indians are deficient in the vitamin.

wadacrack

Micky 32 wrote: »

I do love the comparisons of March 2020 and December. A lot has changed since then. A lot of people have had vaccinations since. Or did you forget about the vaccinations? Especially the most vulnerable and old.

Yes of course we have to be vigilant especially the un vaccinated. I for one are still cautious ( got my first shot of Pfizer 3 weeks ago) Yes cases are rising in the UK but i think they will rise and peak quite soon and then tail off with hospitalisations manageable thanks to the old/vulnerable being jabbed. This won’t be a December or a March 2020 . In the next couple months there will be a huge amount more people will have had their jab.

So what do you suggest? Permanent restrictions to stop “de variants” popping up?

I never suggested restrictions. Proper surveillance of variants and use of public health interventions .

I have said we are doing well here but need to be cautious. The UK seem to be set to have a another significant wave as I have mentioned.

Micky 32

wadacrack wrote: »

I have said we are doing well here but need to be cautious. The UK seem to be set to have a another significant wave as I have mentioned.

I have acknowledged that. Cases are rising in the UK but IMO it won’t be a December especially as the most important cohort are mostly vaccinated.

tom1ie

Lumen wrote: »

This is not at all certain. The cases in the UK are translating into increased hospital admissions, though not at the scale they were previously.

We are considerably behind the UK in our vaccination programme. We won't catch up to their current level for some time, although it's possible that our heavier reliance on mRNA vaccines will help.

But how can it translate to higher hospital cases if the elderly and vulnerable have been double dosed?

gozunda

fun loving criminal wrote: »

I wonder did things look bad in India because India has a high rate of vitamin D deficiency? A quick Google shows that 70-90% of Indians are deficient in the vitamin.

True but doesn't really answer why India didn't experience significant rates of infection in 2020.

wadacrack

Micky 32 wrote: »

I have acknowledged that. Cases are rising in the UK but IMO it won’t be a December especially as the most important cohort are mostly vaccinated.

It won't be as bad . Well unlikely to be . Agree with that. I was stating that in regards to people's attitude ie. downplaying new evidence that comes to light as seen in December and March 2020

Turtwig

tom1ie wrote: »

But how can it translate to higher hospital cases if the elderly and vulnerable have been double dosed?

Population medically vulnerable to covid <<< population at lowest risk to covid.

Even at very low risk the large size of the population pool is enough for there to be significant hospitalisations.

fun loving criminal

gozunda wrote: »

True but doesn't really answer why India didn't experience significant rates of infection in 2020.

Could they have been hiding rates of infection in 2020? Would they be so dumb to do that?

Valhallapt

wadacrack wrote: »

The UK seem to be set to have a another significant wave as I have mentioned.

can you define what you mean by a significant wave?

BorneTobyWilde

When new cases are announced daily do they tell you if those new cases are from vaccinated people?

I mean lets say '' 547 new cases '' today, but all 547 cases are from vaccinated people who don't know they have it and never would know without a test. I just don't get why they keep making a big deal out of cases, same in UK, 8000 positive cases yesterday, but all 8000 are vaccinated and living it up down the pub.
Who gives a fck.
Vaccine does not stop you getting covid, but it stops you knowing you ever had it, as it has no effect once vaccinated, so why keep making a big deal out of cases.