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Are we excited yet?

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Continuation of Is anyone else starting to become a bit excited?

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antimatterx

Can Donald Trump be banned from boards like he was Twitter. He's seriously ruining this thread.

Donald Trump

antimatterx wrote: »

Can Donald Trump be banned from boards like he was Twitter. He's seriously ruining this thread.

You can report my posts if they upset you. Or ignore them. Up to you.

seannash

Donald Trump wrote: »

But the volatility should make it easier - no? Traders always make a killing in choppier waters. The more volatility you have, the more likely you are going to hit that "dip" to buy back in!

To me there seems to be a lot of anchor bias to the valuations.

To your point on missing out, that is just survivorship bias. Those are the ones you remember. You shouldn't put too much weight on those for yourself after the fact

I'd suggest you buy some and get busy. Not everyone is cut out to be a trader.
You seem to not put much stock in the opinions of people who've been in the space for a good few years (which is fine)
All we can tell you is our experiences and opinions. Nobody has to listen to anything anyone says.
As everyone says NFA (not financial advoie)

Donald Trump

seannash wrote: »

I'd suggest you buy some and get busy. You seem to not put much stock in the opinions of people who've been in the space for a good few years (which is fine)
All we can tell you is our experiences and opinions. Nobody has to listen to anything anyone says.
As everyone says NFA (not financial advoie)

Ok I didn't know what the NFA was from earlier. Thanks for that.

I was only asking a few questions. Nothing wrong with that. If I ask someone a question and the answer doesn't make sense to me right off, I only try to ask more to understand what they are saying. There is no need for people (not you - you posted coherent and thought out replies) to be so insecure.

BTW, not to get too pedantic, but some of the replies indicate more so investors rather than traders. I found that interesting

grindle

Donald Trump wrote: »

But the volatility should make it easier - no? Traders always make a killing in choppier waters.

To me there seems to be a lot of anchor bias to the valuations.

To your point on missing out, that is just survivorship bias. Those are the ones you remember.

Trading choppy waters makes sense for small ticks up and down, I've done it before but it yields less reward and more anxiety long term when a coin can lose 50% value in a week and might not recover for years. If you're a trader, map all of BTC or ETH's peaks and troughs you think they'll hit for the next two years and long and short them when necessary. If you're right you'll be a gazillionaire.
People who don't do that will still have the thing that has a massively upward long-term trend with no hassle or regrets or anxiety.

Survivorship bias has done me well for 5 years, I'll take it. Have def lost relatively small amounts of money to scamcoins and mostly a lot of failed projects that never took off too but they're overshadowed by projects that have overtaken those losses by orders of magnitude and I think I'm better at spotting the long term keepers now.

Maybe I'll be destitute tomorrow. Great craic while it lasted!

seannash

Donald Trump wrote: »

Ok I didn't know what the NFA was from earlier. Thanks for that.

I was only asking a few questions. Nothing wrong with that. If I ask someone a question and the answer doesn't make sense to me right off, I only try to ask more to understand what they are saying. There is no need for people (not you - you posted coherent and thought out replies) to be so insecure.

BTW, not to get too pedantic, but some of the replies indicate more so investors rather than traders. I found that interesting

The consensus around here would be to buy and sit on ot for years and not trade so in that sense you are right. More akin to investors.
And absolutely nothing wrong with the questions but it seems like its boiled down to sell high buy low should be everyones strategy but its not a sinple as that as you know.
Holding seems to be the best strategy from peoples past experiences with crypto.

Donald Trump

grindle wrote: »

Trading choppy waters makes sense for small ticks up and down, I've done it before but it yields less reward and more anxiety long term when a coin can lose 50% value in a week and might not recover for years. If you're a trader, map all of BTC or ETH's peaks and troughs you think they'll hit for the next two years and long and short them when necessary. If you're right you'll be a gazillionaire.
People who don't do that will still have the thing that has a massively upward long-term trend with no hassle or regrets or anxiety.

Survivorship bias has done me well for 5 years, I'll take it. Have def lost relatively small amounts of money to scamcoins and mostly a lot of failed projects that never took off too but they're overshadowed by projects that have overtaken those losses by orders of magnitude and I think I'm better at spotting the long term keepers now.

Maybe I'll be destitute tomorrow. Great craic while it lasted!

Are there liquid instruments there that I can look forward with? Anything I can even build a volatility surface with or use to hedge? What are the spreads like on those?

Survivorship bias refers to only the successes surviving. It can be a psychological effect on a person or it can also enter into calculations where someone only takes into account the "winners" and neglect the "losers". Textbook example might be where you look at the returns over the past 5 years of say hedge funds. You look at all the hedge funds that there operating today and you see where they were 5 years ago and calculate their average return. But that is biased upwards by survivorship bias because you won't count the ones that closed up in that timeframe.

For someone looking back at coins/trades that exploded to the upside, the survivorship bias is that you are aware of those ones you didn't invest in. You forget all the other ones you didn't invest in that went to nothing in the meantime. That is the psychological effect

Donald Trump

seannash wrote: »

And absolutely nothing wrong with the questions but it seems like its boiled down to sell high buy low should be everyones strategy but its not a sinple as that as you know.

I understand that perfectly. But to me, "sell high buy low" is the same as strategy to hold off to "buy the dips". So if the latter is appropriate, then the former should be. If you are worried about missing out by selling and missing out on a subsequent jump, then you should have the same worry about waiting for a dip that never comes and missing out on a subsequent jump. No?

I'm not recommending the former btw. Was just trying to square it with the latter.

As I think it was yourself who implied, if you want to go that way - belief in the long-term up in the volatile market, then you can remove the timing aspect by putting money in regularly over time to smooth. I understand that. A strategy of "buying the dips" though is all timing.

grindle

Donald Trump wrote: »

Are there liquid instruments there that I can look forward with? Anything I can even build a volatility surface with or use to hedge? What are the spreads like on those?

Bitmex or Binance, consistent 0.01% spreads and very very high volume, both pored over constantly on TradingView and both homes to very rich people playing with insane amounts of leverage. Data can be pulled from coinapi.io (amalgamates the majority of the market but costs money for HFT), Bitmex or Binance APIs if you're building a model.

Mucashinto

Smashed market buy on a leveraged eth short and made some of the easiest money I've ever made earlier. Is this what the chads were doing on the way up? Can see why they liked it so much tbh.

Jumped in again and gave it all back

Set a limit short but cancelled before it was fulfilled after the dent to the confidence. Watched what would have been a very profitable trade pan out.

Ooof, really have no idea which way this is going. Squeaky bum time.

Anyway, at the end of the day, WAGMI. I think?

ShaneU

It's a speculative market with huge sways from FUD. Just hodl and keep the faith

Mucashinto

Yeah, hoping this is just going to be a bit of a correction to cut the shoulders off some tbh. All theses 10000% ****coins, were taking the piss really. But if this is supposed to nuke or something - to what? What's the supposed common sense/value based alternative? It'll be grim for everyone imo, regardless of what you personally have invested. IDK, Im pretty hammered.

HGVRHKYY

SnuggyBear wrote: »

Put all my coins into udst for the time being I think it looks like it is going to go down to 28k or so

Obviously no two cycles will ever be the same, but the current cycle is trending fairly similarly to the 2017 one (bottom outline) lately, a dip to $28k would probably take us below and outside the 2017 trajectory. Would be fairly interesting to see happen.

https://mobile.twitter.com/ecoinometrics/status/1394314974072242178/photo/1

TheW1zard

Buy Tommycoin

FileNotFound

Bit of a levelling off this morning, slight rises all round.

Are there set time (market opening times for example) where we see the greatest changes?

Sorry total newb haha

Mellor

Hi Don, how's things?
Ruffling feathers again I see. I mean "Just asking questions"

I think the entire issue is easily cleared up tbh. You've started with a misconception, that's lead to your confusion.

Donald Trump wrote: »

I was just asking genuine questions. To me this "hodl" seems to be a long term strategy.

Correct.
Hodl means that you believe that the long terms future price has a high potential value.
So hold on and ignore the ride.

"buying the dip" seems logical to me if you are looking short term or else know the asset is below its intrinsic value.

Not quite.
Buy the dip is a memey way of suggesting that current price doesn't reflect the current value. It's not specific to short term trading. It's completely independent to time.

I don't see why someone would advise to do both?

Why not? They are two independent actions.

Future value potential in 12months+ is high. Hodl coins you have
Current price undervalues asset. Buy coins you don't have.

It's completely reasonable for the current price to be undervalued AND the long term potential to be high. Why wouldn't they both apply.

For a long term position, especially in a volatile asset that I am, hypothetically, personally convinced is going up, why would I wait for a "dip" to buy?

Are you really asking why there's a value in buying at a cheaper price? Think about that.

Also, you've just inserted the word "wait". There's no wait.
It's Buy the [current] Dip, not Buy a [future] Dip

BTCUSD is 44,240 now. If it jumps to 50,000 then I shouldn't buy because it's not a dip? But I believe it will go up and I want a long term asset. So I should wait until it jumps to 60,000 and "dips" back down to 58,000? Seems a bit contradictory to me.

Buying the dip means buying at 44,240 now. This is the dip.
And from you example future prices, buying at 44 yields the biggest gain. You've just proven the idea behind buying the dip.

Donald Trump wrote: »

No professional investor will do that. What differentiates professional investors from amateurs is knowing when to cut losses. The averaging you describe is almost effectively a martingale strategy. A martingale strategy ultimately only works if you have literally infinite resources. Which nobody has of course

It's not a martingale strategy. Martingale has nothing to do with averages, it's entirely based on recouping losses.

Also, a martingale doesn't require infinite resources. That's a common misconception as a result of people using martingale systems in -EV positions.

Crypto markets may indeed be a different asset class, but the fundamental risk management principles are the same. Nick Leeson was able to move Asian markets to get himself out or a hole a couple of times. I think he also employed a martingale strategy too.

He did employ a martingale strategy. But he was trying to recoup losses (see above) which is completely unrelated to increasing holding of an asset.

But then a deterioration of his positions coincided with an earthquake which impacted Asian markets and he wasn't able to move them one time. So a bank a few hundred years old evaporated.

Actually if that instance he place a huge short straddle on the market. He was betting that it wouldn't move. But it plummeted.

Donald Trump wrote: »

Well my original point was that if you were certain that there was going to be a dip, so much so that you were waiting to pile into it with your last few cent (as a poster opined), then it would also seem logical to cash out now and then jump back in when that dip comes.

Again you are mixing up current dip and a future dip.
Buy the dip refers to now. It doesn't mean there will be a future dip. If somebody knew there would be a future dip, making money would be easy.

If you have a strong belief that a stock is going down for example, you have people who will take a naked position on a short position. Not necessarily recommended for general investors or allowed by a lot of vehicles but hedge funds will do that no bother.

If a person is telling me their strong belief that this will happen, I would question why they are effectively hedging it if that is the case.

Buying the dip is nothing to nothing to do with shorting.
And it not effectively hedging it or anything of the short.

hello2020

grindle wrote: »

Trading choppy waters makes sense for small ticks up and down, I've done it before but it yields less reward and more anxiety long term when a coin can lose 50% value in a week and might not recover for years. If you're a trader, map all of BTC or ETH's peaks and troughs you think they'll hit for the next two years and long and short them when necessary. If you're right you'll be a gazillionaire.
People who don't do that will still have the thing that has a massively upward long-term trend with no hassle or regrets or anxiety.

Survivorship bias has done me well for 5 years, I'll take it. Have def lost relatively small amounts of money to scamcoins and mostly a lot of failed projects that never took off too but they're overshadowed by projects that have overtaken those losses by orders of magnitude and I think I'm better at spotting the long term keepers now.

Maybe I'll be destitute tomorrow. Great craic while it lasted!

thanks for these interesting points.. from your past experience, do you see this a good time to buy ?

mcriot29

TheW1zard wrote: »

Buy Tommycoin

Are you doing a bit of donating there

mcriot29

So how long do you think this dip will last days or weeks

False Prophet

mcriot29 wrote: »

So how long do you think this dip will last days or weeks

you left out the option for months and years

i expected another rebound sometime till late jan, but thats just a feeling

Mr Rhode Island Red

MATIC got listed on Kraken yesterday evening around 5pm and has done a +30% since. Saw the tweet around 9pm and sickened I didn't pick up even a small bag.

Is it too late to hop on the train? I know the best time to hop on the train was 2 years ago but the 2nd best time might be today? Some saying there might be a 2 or 3x left in it this bullrun.

[Deleted User]

A wise man once said don't fomo in

weemcd

Mr Rhode Island Red wrote: »

MATIC got listed on Kraken yesterday evening around 5pm and has done a +30% since. Saw the tweet around 9pm and sickened I didn't pick up even a small bag.

Is it too late to hop on the train? I know the best time to hop on the train was 2 years ago but the 2nd best time might be today? Some saying there might be a 2 or 3x left in it this bullrun.

I missed Matic myself, quite annoying, can't hold em all. I set an alert for 2$ and 1.5$ but I don't know if I'll catch it now.

Mr Rhode Island Red

Deleted User wrote: »

A wise man once said don't fomo in

I know, and I have generally adhered to the rule of thumb not to jump in an hour or two after an ATH in the past but the FOMO is stronger than usual so I'm going to pick up a small bag and set an alert in case it drops.

[Deleted User]

Ah fudge, I was running a DCA bot on matic a few weeks back and got some tidy gains off it.

Donegal1234

Just sold last of my Matic coins. Been a journey from under 1 cent to €1.70 a coin.

Donald Trump

Mellor wrote: »

Hi Don, how's things?
Ruffling feathers again I see. I mean "Just asking questions"

I think the entire issue is easily cleared up tbh. You've started with a misconception, that's lead to your confusion.

Correct.
Hodl means that you believe that the long terms future price has a high potential value.
So hold on and ignore the ride.

Not quite.
Buy the dip is a memey way of suggesting that current price doesn't reflect the current value. It's not specific to short term trading. It's completely independent to time.

Why not? They are two independent actions.

Future value potential in 12months+ is high. Hodl coins you have
Current price undervalues asset. Buy coins you don't have.

It's completely reasonable for the current price to be undervalued AND the long term potential to be high. Why wouldn't they both apply.

Are you really asking why there's a value in buying at a cheaper price? Think about that.

Also, you've just inserted the word "wait". There's no wait.
It's Buy the [current] Dip, not Buy a [future] Dip

Buying the dip means buying at 44,240 now. This is the dip.
And from you example future prices, buying at 44 yields the biggest gain. You've just proven the idea behind buying the dip.

It's not a martingale strategy. Martingale has nothing to do with averages, it's entirely based on recouping losses.

Also, a martingale doesn't require infinite resources. That's a common misconception as a result of people using martingale systems in -EV positions.

He did employ a martingale strategy. But he was trying to recoup losses (see above) which is completely unrelated to increasing holding of an asset.

Actually if that instance he place a huge short straddle on the market. He was betting that it wouldn't move. But it plummeted.

Again you are mixing up current dip and a future dip.
Buy the dip refers to now. It doesn't mean there will be a future dip. If somebody knew there would be a future dip, making money would be easy.

Buying the dip is nothing to nothing to do with shorting.
And it not effectively hedging it or anything of the short.

Hi Mellor. The post I referred to appeared to be telling people to wait to buy the future dips. It was not saying "buy now because it is currently undervalued". I took it to mean to wait to buy - as you pointed out from my own posts.

I will refer you also to his advice to do the same on 10th May when it was at 56k. So if he meant the "current dip" yesterday, then he also meant the then "current dip" on 10th May. And if you took his advice on 10th May and put all your spare money into it, you would not have had any spare money to put in yesterday.

It is off topic, but Leeson did indeed initially enter a straddle. It was a simple volatility play - picking up pennies in front of the steamroller as I referred to earlier. What his actual position was is not the point. He then proceeded to double down after getting hit by the steamroller by entering into even more risky trades to win money back to cover losses - as he had done on previous occasions. He did not have the firepower to move the market like he had done previously. He thought he could do it but failed.

BTW, the mention of shorting was just that if you were convinced that a temporary dip followed by recovery back to today is coming, and that you wanted to hold off buying until that dip, then you can also just short to profit from that.

You decide to short the coin now. Jimmy decides to wait for the dip before buying. Under the scenario that what you expect happens, it dips to 30, both you and Jimmy buy your coins then (you give your borrowed one back and you are up 20), it then recovers to 50 (and now Jimmy is up 20). So both are up 20 (assuming no fees and ignoring TVM). Obviously the potential payoffs and risks for other scenarios/outcomes are different, but we can also synthesize those if we want.

The "effectively hedging" I mentioned was both holding on and waiting to "buy the dip". That is indeed effectively hedging. I"m not saying that is or is not a good idea - I'm just saying that is what it is.

You say he was not saying to wait but to buy immediately. I assumed that he was saying to wait for future dips. Anything I said is predicated on that assumption.

FileNotFound

Donegal1234 wrote: »

Just sold last of my Matic coins. Been a journey from under 1 cent to €1.70 a coin.

Well worth the journey

Icyseanfitz

TheW1zard wrote: »

Buy Tommycoin

To the moon

Donegal1234

FileNotFound wrote: »

Well worth the journey

It’s was this captail gains tax at 33% is a killer.