awec wrote: » Can you point out where in the article you linked this is stated? Perhaps I missed it.
PropQueries wrote: » Cut where though? For example, of the 2019 c. €20 Billion welfare budget, only c. €4.5 Billion was due to all the various levels of unemployment or income supports and many of those were people just collecting their insurance i.e. PRSI payments. So, even if the state now decides to say that PRSI is actually not insurance and is now actually a tax and removes all those supports, where will the other c. €7.5 Billion in potential required cutbacks come from? And, come from on an annual basis permanently going forward.
PropQueries wrote: » Paragraph two: "M&G Investments says it's time to start shorting peripheral debt".
awec wrote: » You said they are considering shorting "peripheral countries". The article talks about peripheral debt. The two things are different.
Citigroup Inc. is bracing for a taper of bond buying as early as June, and M&G Investments says it’s time to start shorting peripheral debt.
timmyntc wrote: » Props said they are looking at shorting the debt of peripheral countries. The entire article talks about peripheral debt meaning bond yields of Greece Portugal Italy and Spain. is that not the same?
awec wrote: » It was worth clarifying that the article PropQueries linked to had nothing to do with Irish debt and his dropping it into his post about the Irish economy was fairly disingenuous (but unfortunately, par for the course).
mcsean2163 wrote: » We're the most indebted country per capita in the EU and third in the entire world. We have the lowest proportion of our population over 65 meaning that pension spending will increase as that approaches the EU norm I think you're naive if you think the article doesn't apply to us. If the government reduces hap payment rents collapse, if it doesn't EU will intervene. Either way I can't see an easy escape for property prices.
PropQueries wrote: » While it's not reported in the Irish media, some funds are already looking at shorting the debt of the EU's periphery countries. There was a good article on it last week on Bloomberg titled "Europe’s Most Indebted Countries Aren’t Ready for Market Reality". While Michael McGrath is looking at "weaning" PUP payments off PUP recipients, the ECB and EU are already looking at weaning countries like Ireland off their supports. Let's see if Michael McGrath is in favour of such "weaning off", once the shoe is on the other foot
The_Conductor wrote: » Forget about HAP payments for a moment- and look at the 30k lumpsum for first time buyers- that could be abolished handily. The HSE is going to see all its Covid induced largess evaporate. Education is going to get hit. DSP will see its budget slashed. Outside of this- all the special projects (think pie-in-the-sky rural railways, cyle-links etc etc)- are next on the chopping block. I don't see much in the way of additional tax rises (for the short to medium term) but I do see a lot of potential slash and burn in expenditure. One potential development will be a third rate of tax of 15% to kick in on all income above 12,940 per annum. Of all the parties- the Greens are going to be furious- they seem to love splurging money around like there is no tomorrow- well, guess what, tomorrow is beckoning. In the public sector- there are rumours of an early retirement scheme in the civil service open to those aged 51+ A new embargo on recruitment esp. in the HSEA ban on the use of agency staff in all public sectorsA ban on all overtime payments (staff to be granted time-in-lieu where-ever possible) etc etc I reckon the focus will be firmly on expenditure reduction, as opposed to tax increases- however, there will also be a concerted effort to bring more into the tax regime- through a third tax rate- set immediately above the COAP rate. It ain't gonna to be pretty.
The_Conductor wrote: » Forget about HAP payments for a moment- and look at the 30k lumpsum for first time buyers- that could be abolished handily. The HSE is going to see all its Covid induced largess evaporate. Education is going to get hit. DSP will see its budget slashed. Outside of this- all the special projects (think pie-in-the-sky rural railways, cyle-links etc etc)- are next on the chopping block. I don't see much in the way of additional tax rises (for the short to medium term) but I do see a lot of potential slash and burn in expenditure. One potential development will be a third rate of tax of 15% to kick in on all income above 12,940 per annum. Of all the parties- the Greens are going to be furious- they seem to love splurging money around like there is no tomorrow- well, guess what, tomorrow is beckoning. In the public sector- there are rumours of an early retirement scheme in the civil service open to those aged 51+ A new embargo on recruitment esp. in the HSE A ban on the use of agency staff in all public sectors A ban on all overtime payments (staff to be granted time-in-lieu where-ever possible) etc etc I reckon the focus will be firmly on expenditure reduction, as opposed to tax increases- however, there will also be a concerted effort to bring more into the tax regime- through a third tax rate- set immediately above the COAP rate. It ain't gonna to be pretty.
Villa05 wrote: » Irrelevant as you continually state price is dictated by what people can afford rather than cost of building
With demand for Dublin’s private rented sector (PRS) market undimmed by the Covid-19 pandemic, developer Pat Crean’s Marlet Property Group will be hoping to take advantage of the continuing appetite of institutional investors for prime opportunities in the capital by bringing Ireland’s largest-ever PRS portfolio to the market.
To counteract the fading outlook for returns from mainstream bonds and equity markets, many pension plans are ratcheting up their investments in “alternative” or “private” assets, such as private equity, real estate, venture capital, infrastructure and untraded loans. For long-term investors who can accept the illiquidity in return for the promise of higher returns, this makes sense. A housing project or toll road can produce a bond-like, steady income stream. Yet with almost every institutional investor exploring this avenue, it has led to froth in “private markets”. The IMF estimates that pension plans have doubled their allocations to illiquid assets over the past 10 years, and for about a fifth of funds these capital commitments amount to more than half their liquid assets.
yagan wrote: » Marlet is an M&G puppy and all signs look like an major offloading out of a crowded trade in motion.
fliball123 wrote: » So you reckon that the "we cant afford houses" from the younger generation will be ignored and another 10% will come into play? Cant see it happening
yagan wrote: » M&G Investments are the Marlet group financial backers so I do wonder what their angle is here.https://www.irishtimes.com/business/marlet-seeks-over-1bn-for-prime-dublin-residential-rental-portfolio-1.4505425 Previously Marlet never had to pitch as they were formed specifically to supply the demand for rental yield return for pension funds that had been struggling with low dividends in the bull market and low bond interest. This is an excellent piece about pension funding problem and its influence on the property market.https://www.ft.com/content/c95deea4-03e2-11ea-9afa-d9e2401fa7ca As covered in the piece the problem becomes compounded if there a pension fund property bubble bust as traditionally it's pension funds that pick up the slack when markets are in a bear market. Marlet is an M&G puppy and all signs look like an major offloading out of a crowded trade in motion.
timmyntc wrote: » What signs point to this?
handlemaster wrote: » are we looking at a property drop when the government spending drops an taxes go up. What will the difference be this time as compared to 2008 ? The banks we hear are well financed and also I would assume property buyers are not as indebted as before but sentiment means alot and if buyers think prices will drop . They will.
PropQueries wrote: » But isn't that any funds modus operandi? Buy when the small guys don't see the potential of an upside and sell when the small guys don't see the potential of a downside. These funds spend all day, every day analysing this kind of information and the small time investor or FTB can't as he generally has a dayjob or doesn't have the access to or the manpower to analyse all the information that these funds do. The problems arise when Governments gets involved and continue to let the small guys believe that everything will be all fine and the small guys take them at their word IMO
RichardAnd wrote: » Do you have a source for this? That's a genuine question; I'm not saying that you're incorrect or anything. What could be coming is naturally of interest.
yagan wrote: » I reckon a lot of it those managing the pension funds know they're heading for a bust, but you don't get commission for hoarding your clients money. The number one lesson they learned from the banking bust is that they'll get a bail out, so make hay when you can and then go away when the house of cards collapses.
PropQueries wrote: » Will they get a bail-out or would many even need it though? I read the last day that e.g. the Danish and Dutch pension funds are among the best funded in the world. Much like our debt levels and despite the narrative, we're most definitely not all in the same boat in the EU either pension fund liabilities wise or government debt levels wise IMO The only "bail-out" the pension funds in most of the rest of the EU really require is to get interest rates back up to the 2000's levels (at least). And, given what the head of the Bundesbank said a couple of weeks ago, they may get what they're wishing for sooner rather than later. "There can be no lack of determination, even if rising interest rates increase countries borrowing costs. This is important for the credibility of monetary policy." Link to FT article on what the head of the Bundesbank said a few weeks ago: https://www.ft.com/content/c587dd18-...2-6b7ab94ba2dd
Jan-Pieter Jansen, a 77-year-old retiree from the Netherlands, had high hopes for a worry-free retirement after having saved diligently into a pension during his working life. But Mr Jansen, a former manager in the metal industry, has been forced to reappraise his plans after receiving notice from his retirement scheme, one of the Netherland’s biggest industry-sector funds, of plans to cut his pension by up to 10 per cent. Understandably, the news has hit like a sledgehammer.
Hubertj wrote: » Why doesn’t the article refer or Ireland though? I’m not disagreeing with you but why not reference Ireland?
yagan wrote: » Did you read the FT article I linked earlier? Can you imagine the uproar on Joe Duffy when silver service pensions suffer losses? If the property bubble was a transfer of wealth from young to old then the pension bust will be the water hitting the other side of the tub. However housing policy should never have allowed it to be that a family struggles to save for a deposit while funding someone else's private pension via rent. Don't burn the bondholders/private pensions etc.....
PropQueries wrote: » It does look like many of the countries in the EU would now rather rising interest rates and let the few other countries with any debt problems to deal with the consequences of such rising rates themselves in whatever way they see fit IMO
PropQueries wrote: » I suppose what I meant is that rising interest rates will help many of them more than any kind of explicit bailout. But, excluding private pension funds, our public sector pension liabilities must also be among the most grossly under-funded (non-funded?) in the world. It does look like many of the countries in the EU would now rather rising interest rates and let the few other countries with any debt problems to deal with the consequences of such rising rates themselves in whatever way they see fit IMO
