How hard is it to get the rolex you want

Cyrus wrote: »

I’d want preferred treatment on a stainless steel model if i was paying for a platinum.

You don't even need to spend that much to get preference on SS models.

Creamy Goodness

Time wrote: »

You don't even need to spend that much to get preference on SS models.

Would you be willing to divulge how much you would have needed to spend? Bought roughly about 10k (not a whole lot really) of watches and jewellery over the years in weirs. It’ll probably be a year or two before looking to buy too.

Creamy Goodness wrote: »

Would you be willing to divulge how much you would have needed to spend? Bought roughly about 10k of watches and jewellery over the years in weirs. It’ll probably be a year or two before looking to buy too.

Spent 25kish a few weeks back, and was basically offered a S/S rolex if i want it.

Creamy Goodness

Time wrote: »

Spent 25kish a few weeks back, and was basically offered a S/S rolex if i want it.

Interesting, thanks for that. I’d probably be spending another 5k or so between the watch purchase so might shorten the wait a little bit.

scwazrh

Time wrote: »

Spent 25kish a few weeks back, and was basically offered a S/S rolex if i want it.

I spent €10k over two transactions just before Xmas and am on the wait list for a sub.I was told 6-12 months for the two tone and 2-3 years for steel and no guarantee of either .

So it would seem over €20 k is the requirement.

I've spent nearly 40k there in the relatively recent past. I'm sure theres no hard and fast rule though, and it depends on the watch you want.

The platinum with diamond markers is one of the hottest Rolex you can ask for, far more than any SS version. Instant 20-40k profit on a flip. You would want serious history to ask for such a watch and they will have no memory of your dad's spend 30 years ago.

It's a 100k RRP watch and 140k on the grey market. Likely cheaper you just go grey as you are going to have to spend some amount on jewelry and lose your shirt on it. But hey if you have that dosh to spend without history of buying hard to get Rolex, you probably don't care

I have about 35k on omegas, datejusts and jewellery, in there last two years and they never got me anything worth talking about. Waiting 2 years now on a skydwellwer I will never get.

scwazrh

Time wrote: »

I've spent nearly 40k there in the relatively recent past. I'm sure theres no hard and fast rule though, and it depends on the watch you want.

At €40k spend I would expect them to open the doors a bit

Fitz II wrote: »

The platinum with diamond markers is one of the hottest Rolex you can ask for, far more than any SS version. Instant 20-40k profit on a flip. You would want serious history to ask for such a watch and they will have no memory of your dad's spend 30 years ago.

It's a 100k RRP watch and 140k on the grey market. Likely cheaper you just go grey as you are going to have to spend some amount on jewelry and lose your shirt on it. But hey if you have that dosh to spend without history of buying hard to get Rolex, you probably don't care

I have about 35k on omegas, datejusts and jewellery, in there last two years and they never got me anything worth talking about. Waiting 2 years now on a skydwellwer I will never get.

Is the platinum now sought after as well

Christ I give up

One time they were available at fairly steep discounts !

Although I’m wary of these frothy grey dealer asking prices on hot watches , see the nautilus sitting on tzuk at 70k so obviously wf et al aren’t even paying that yet offering them out at 100k

Cyrus wrote: »

Is the platinum now sought after as well

Christ I give up

One time they were available at fairly steep discounts !

Although I’m wary of these frothy grey dealer asking prices on hot watches , see the nautilus sitting on tzuk at 70k so obviously wf et al aren’t even paying that yet offering them out at 100k

What intrigues me is that theres apparently such a large market out there for 80K+ watches.

dinorebel

Fitz II wrote: »

The platinum with diamond markers is one of the hottest Rolex you can ask for, far more than any SS version. Instant 20-40k profit on a flip. You would want serious history to ask for such a watch and they will have no memory of your dad's spend 30 years ago.

It's a 100k RRP watch and 140k on the grey market. Likely cheaper you just go grey as you are going to have to spend some amount on jewelry and lose your shirt on it. But hey if you have that dosh to spend without history of buying hard to get Rolex, you probably don't care

I have about 35k on omegas, datejusts and jewellery, in there last two years and they never got me anything worth talking about. Waiting 2 years now on a skydwellwer I will never get.

Can you fight?

dinorebel wrote: »

Can you fight?

Goes to show even celebs need to go grey market for a gold skydweller. That channel is very interesting, just lads walking into the shop all day with new Rolex they got yesterday and taking a profit. (Can you blame them?)

The Platona was one that lingered in AD windows for a good while, its very expensive RRP being around 65-70k for the normal one and 90-100 for the diamond "blue ice" one. The colour takes a bit of getting used to also.

THen Hodinkee and John Mayer decided that the Yellow gold green dial and the platinum were the next hot thing, and the prices started to rise....now not patek levels here but its been on the steady rise. The Rainbow Daytona is really one of the only Rolex that is more hot right not.....I think the dial colour and bezel make the platinum watch hard to miss and that has really driven up the prices.

Yes I too am always astonished at the level people will spend on watches, but if you have 100k to spend please for the love of god look at something better than Rolex you are in super complicated Patek levels, bad ass AP maybe even a AP turbillion, Serious Lange or if you are smart you can have a AP, and a couple of Rolex and a Patek and hedge your bets a little.

There is defo some strange disconnect between the hype prices of watches and what people are actually achieving with sales, the TZ 5711 showed that, I have had pathetic offers from watchfinder. Grey market dealers are all too keen to show us behind the curtain at the prices they are buying and selling for, but I have a feeling that they would skin you alive off camera

Cyclingtourist

Is the Rolex market a Ponzi Scheme?

A Ponzi scheme (/ˈpɒnzi/, Italian: [ˈpontsi]; also a Ponzi game)[1] is a form of fraud that lures investors and pays profits to earlier investors with funds from more recent investors.[2] The scheme leads victims to believe that profits are coming from legitimate business activity (e.g. product sales and/or successful investments), and they remain unaware that other investors are the source of funds. A Ponzi scheme can maintain the illusion of a sustainable business as long as new investors contribute new funds, and as long as most of the investors do not demand full repayment and still believe in the non-existent assets they are purported to own.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ponzi_scheme

It certainly has some of the characteristics like investors who feel certain that their investment is secure with an assured increase in value year on year. No intrinsic value increase beyond the market perception. Vulnerability to panic selling......

Cyclingtourist wrote: »

Is the Rolex market a Ponzi Scheme?

no its not.

its a bubble but there is a tangible asset,

Cyclingtourist

Cyrus wrote: »

no its not.

its a bubble but there is a tangible asset,

Sure it's tangible but how tangible in a market where more people want to get out than want to get in?

The market could flip and once in reverse it could become a stampede. :eek:

Anjobe

Cyrus wrote: »

no its not.

its a bubble but there is a tangible asset,

A market bubble and a Ponzi scheme are very similar, as many people discovered in the property market crash in 2008, the only real difference is there is no con-artist orchestrating the bubble.

A Rolex may be a tangible asset, but it's value is determined only by how much people (i.e. new investors) are willing to pay to acquire it, an SS one at least has no intrinsic value.

Anjobe wrote: »

A market bubble and a Ponzi scheme are very similar, as many people discovered in the property market crash in 2008, the only real difference is there is no con-artist orchestrating the bubble.

A Rolex may be a tangible asset, but it's value is determined only by how much people (i.e. new investors) are willing to pay to acquire it, an SS one at least has no intrinsic value.

you could say that about any veblen good, whats the intrinsic value of a Hermes Birkin bag, or of a vintage porsche or of a patek nautilus.

a bubble is caused by the people desiring the good and then driven by greed a ponzi scheme is predicated on fraud.

i have sold all my rolex now as i think the prices are high and wont buy anything at more than retail, but im aware with that approach i may well not own one again for quite some time.

banie01

Anjobe wrote: »

A Rolex may be a tangible asset, but it's value is determined only by how much people (i.e. new investors) are willing to pay to acquire it, an SS one at least has no intrinsic value.

There is a value tbf.
Its certainly not as simple as with precious metal or a precious stone set piece but there is certainly a fair value that can be ascribed to a Rolex.
Whats difficult to assess is where that value would lie versus watches of a similar standard, finish and performance but without that elusive brand.

I don't think even at a market flip they will ever be worthless but, Rolex in particular have played a masterful game at managing supply whilst stoking insane demand.

That demand is starting to trickle out to other brands too.
A watch I very nearly pulled the trigger on last year is available again at @40% more than last time it was listed and compared to other ones on sale elsewhere (and selling) its still insane value!!!

Certainly there is a bubble, and weirdly that's a bubble that is appearing across asset classes currently.
Stocks are a prime example, many are trading way in excess of what one would deem fair value versus EBITDA or income and then there's the negative interest rate conundrum.
Both are pushing money seeking a return to look at alternatives IMO.
The rise of crypto, the growth of alternative assets and the sheer amount of money been thrown at hopium style investments all lead me to think that folk will throw money at a lot of things more in hope than anything else.

mailforkev

banie01 wrote: »

The rise of crypto

Now there’s something a bit closer to a pyramid than the Rolex bubble.

There’s a good BBC podcast about a pyramid scam called the Missing Crypto Queen if anyone is looking for a new one to listen to on their (now expanded) 5km walks.

Cienciano

Cyclingtourist wrote: »

Sure it's tangible but how tangible in a market where more people want to get out than want to get in?

The market could flip and once in reverse it could become a stampede. :eek:

If you want to stay sane, don't click on a thread with the word "Rolex" in the title :pac:

Anjobe wrote: »

A Rolex may be a tangible asset, but it's value is determined only by how much people (i.e. new investors) are willing to pay to acquire it, an SS one at least has no intrinsic value.

All assets are like that, even cash. Precious metal or gemstones have not actual value either except what people are willing to pay. This is the social order that stop us killing each other for food.

You can be a chicken little or a Rolex acolyte about this, but the reality is that its just a watch, if you want it buy it and then you have a watch. If you are trying to make money on appreciating assets you takes your chances. Rolex was here before you and it will be hear after you. They make very decent watches that anyone should be proud to own all the rest is noise.

DPG

I spoke to both Irish ADs today and am expecting updated information on Tuesday and Wednesday. One dealer did ask if I would be interested in future purchases as I would have priority and specifically mentioned the 50th anniversary day date.

mailforkev

Was there not a green faced day date 60th anniversary a few years back or am I mixing models?

DPG

Apologies, meant to say 60th anniversary as opposed to 50th

DPG wrote: »

Apologies, meant to say 60th anniversary as opposed to 50th

I have to say unless you really really love Rolex there are better ways to spend 100 odd grand. It’s a 10k watch with a platinum case instead of steel and some diamonds.

Would a complicated Patek not interest you at all?

Cyrus wrote: »

I have to say unless you really really love Rolex there are better ways to spend 100 odd grand. It’s a 10k watch with a platinum case instead of steel and some diamonds.

Would a complicated Patek not interest you at all?

Have to agree, obviously you want a baller and FU watch but for that money you could get a minute repeater Lange, a double balance rose gold AP, A complex Patek, A FP Journe, Perpetual Chrono Lange, Or the Patek Hometime Nautilus. All high horology brands, all far more cred than a Rolex. The Daytona is not worthy to touch the hem of these watches garments, and I own a precious metal Daytona saying that (pathetic gold not platinum).

Any of these boys